Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Crisis communication

While a substantial part of the discourse around social media continues to focus on concerns over cyberbullying or other undesirable practices, the important role which such media play in information dissemination, especially in the context of natural disasters and other acute events, is also being realised. A series of natural and human-made crisis events since 2011, including several major natural disasters in Australia, have highlighted this role.

2010–2011 Queensland floods : using Haddon's Matrix to define and categorise public safety strategies

Objective The 2010–2011 Queensland floods resulted in the most deaths from a single flood event in Australia since 1916. This article analyses the information on these deaths for comparison with those from previous floods in modern Australia in an attempt to identify factors that have contributed to those deaths. Haddon's Matrix, originally designed for prevention of road trauma, offers a framework for understanding the interplay between contributing factors and helps facilitate a clearer understanding of the varied strategies required to ensure people's safety for particular flood types. Methods Public reports and flood relevant literature were searched using key words ‘flood’, ‘fatality’, ‘mortality’, ‘death’, ‘injury’ and ‘victim’ through Google Scholar, PubMed, ProQuest and EBSCO. Data relating to reported deaths during the 2010–2011 Queensland floods, and relevant data of previous Australian flood fatality (1997–2009) were collected from these available sources. These sources were also used to identify contributing factors. Results There were 33 deaths directly attributed to the event, of which 54.5% were swept away in a flash flood on 10 January 2011. A further 15.1% of fatalities were caused by inappropriate behaviours. This is different to floods in modern Australia where over 90% of deaths are related to the choices made by individuals. There is no single reason why people drown in floods, but rather a complex interplay of factors. Conclusions The present study and its integration of research findings and conceptual frameworks might assist governments and communities to develop policies and strategies to prevent flood injury and fatalities.

Prickly pear land : transnational networks in settler Australia

The story of prickly pear in Australia is usually told as a tale of triumphant scientific intervention into an environmental disaster. Instead, this unarticle considers it as a transnational network in order to better understand the myriad of elements that made this event so important. Through this methodology emerges the complex nature of prickly pear land that included people, places, ideas, rhetoric and objects that traveled from all over the world into settler Australia.

The politics of Twitter data

Talk of Big Data seems to be everywhere. Indeed, the apparently value-free concept of ‘data’ has seen a spectacular broadening of popular interest, shifting from the dry terminology of labcoat-wearing scientists to the buzzword du jour of marketers. In the business world, data is increasingly framed as an economic asset of critical importance, a commodity on a par with scarce natural resources (Backaitis, 2012; Rotella, 2012). It is social media that has most visibly brought the Big Data moment to media and communication studies, and beyond it, to the social sciences and humanities. Social media data is one of the most important areas of the rapidly growing data market (Manovich, 2012; Steele, 2011). Massive valuations are attached to companies that directly collect and profit from social media data, such as Facebook and Twitter, as well as to resellers and analytics companies like Gnip and DataSift. The expectation attached to the business models of these companies is that their privileged access to data and the resulting valuable insights into the minds of consumers and voters will make them irreplaceable in the future. Analysts and consultants argue that advanced statistical techniques will allow the detection of ongoing communicative events (natural disasters, political uprisings) and the reliable prediction of future ones (electoral choices, consumption)...

Managing health risks of extreme weather events : need for a systematic approach

The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

A comparative analysis of risk stratification tools for emergency department patients with chest pain

Background: Appropriate disposition of emergency department (ED) patients with chest pain is dependent on clinical evaluation of risk. A number of chest pain risk stratification tools have been proposed. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performance for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) using risk assessment tools from the National Heart Foundation of Australia (HFA), the Goldman risk score and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction risk score (TIMI RS). Methods: This prospective observational study evaluated ED patients aged ≥30 years with non-traumatic chest pain for which no definitive non-ischemic cause was found. Data collected included demographic and clinical information, investigation findings and occurrence of MACE by 30 days. The outcome of interest was the comparative predictive performance of the risk tools for MACE at 30 days, as analyzed by receiver operator curves (ROC). Results: Two hundred eighty-one patients were studied; the rate of MACE was 14.1%. Area under the curve (AUC) of the HFA, TIMI RS and Goldman tools for the endpoint of MACE was 0.54, 0.71 and 0.67, respectively, with the difference between the tools in predictive ability for MACE being highly significant [chi2 (3) = 67.21, N = 276, p < 0.0001]. Conclusion: The TIMI RS and Goldman tools performed better than the HFA in this undifferentiated ED chest pain population, but selection of cutoffs balancing sensitivity and specificity was problematic. There is an urgent need for validated risk stratification tools specific for the ED chest pain population.

The emergence of Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar Arborea as the dominant infecting serovar following the summer of natural disasters in Queensland, Australia 2011

The following research reports the emergence of Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar Arborea as the dominant infecting serovar following the summer of disasters and the ensuing clean up in Queensland, Australia during 2011. For the 12 month period (1 January to 31 December) L. borgpetersenii serovar Arborea accounted for over 49% of infections. In response to a flooding event public health officials need to issue community wide announcements warning the population about the dangers of leptospirosis and other water borne diseases. Communication with physicians working in the affected community should also be increased to update physicians with information such as clinical presentation of leptospirosis and other waterborne diseases. These recommendations will furnish public health officials with considerations for disease management when dealing with future disaster management programs.

Engaging paramedic students in research: A case report

The use of volunteer undergraduate students to support simulated training for peers is common in Paramedic Science. However, there are limited examples of engaging paramedic student-volunteers in research as compared to that reported in cognate disciplines such as Medicine and Nursing. This case report shares our experience with engaging a penultimate year paramedic student in evaluation research. This information we hope will start the dialogue on the epistemology and pedagogies for effective engagement of undergraduate paramedic students as future researchers.

PTSD and traumatic stress : from gene to community and bench to bedside

Individuals and communities are exposed to traumatic events, those that are accidents or naturally occurring and those that are intentional or human made. Although resilience is the expected response, for some, posttraumatic stress disorder may be the outcome. Brain models of PTSD require understanding the phenomenology of the disorder and the brain “break down” that occurs. Among several models, importantly, is the perspective that PTSD is a “forgetting” disorder. Other elements in the onset and triggers of PTSD can identify further models to examine at the bench. New studies of the 5-HT2A receptor, the glucocorticoid receptor, p11, mitochondrial genes and cannabinoids are bringing new perspectives to understanding brain function in PTSD. Effective treatments indicate areas for bench research on the mechanisms of the disorder.

Experiences of resettled refugees during the 2011 Queensland floods

With projected climatic changes it is expected that refugees and other forced migrants will increasingly spend protracted amounts of time in transit countries or will resettle in locations that experience ecological vulnerability. A submission to the Queensland Floods Commission Inquiry 2011 by MDA reported that the floods displaced about 70 refugee client families and that 30 families had ongoing complex needs at the time of the submission. The findings reported in this chapter are derived from a follow-up of a cohort of men from refugee backgrounds who participated in the 2008–10 SettleMEN project. The chapter provides an insight into the experiences of refugee migrants who experience environmental disaster in a site of settlement

Levels of social trust among men from refugee backgrounds after the 2011 Queensland floods

Purpose This paper examines the relationship between flood exposure and levels of social trust among a cohort of adult men from refugee backgrounds who were affected by the 2011 Queensland floods in Australia. Design/methodology/approach A quantitative questionnaire was administered to 141 men from refugee backgrounds almost two years after the 2011 Queensland floods. The survey was administered in person by trained peer in-terviewers, and included a number of standardised instruments assessing respondents’ so-cio-demographic characteristics, levels of social trust towards and from neighbours, the police, the wider Australian community, and the media, and exposure to and impact of the floods. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to assess the relationship between flood exposure and social trust adjusting for pre-disaster levels of trust and other potentially confounding variables. Findings Participants with higher levels of flood exposure were significantly more likely to report greater levels of trust both towards and from their neighbours, the wider Australian community, and the media, and they were also more likely to believe that most people can be trusted. Research limitations/implications Although the study reports on data collected two years after the floods, the analysis has adjusted for pre-disaster measures of social trust and other socio-demographic variables. Originality/value Our paper has highlighted the important place of social trust and social capital for refugee communities in a post-disaster setting. Disaster responses that support social capital among marginalised populations are critical to increasing community resilience and supporting recovery.