A Project Portfolio Tool for Forecasting Small Projects Profitability

The case company in this study is a large industrial engineering company whose business is largely based on delivering a wide-range of engineering projects. The aim of this study is to create and develop a fairly simple Excel-based tool for the sales department. The tool’s main function is to estimate and visualize the profitability of various small projects. The study also aims to find out other possible and more long-term solutions for tackling the problem in the future. The study is highly constructive and descriptive as it focuses on the development task and in the creation of a new operating model. The developed tool focuses on estimating the profitability of the small orders of the selected project portfolio currently on the bidding-phase (prospects) and will help the case company in the monthly reporting of sales figures. The tool will analyse the profitability of a certain project by calculating its fixed and variable costs, then further the gross margin and operating profit. The bidding phase of small project is a phase that has not been covered fully by the existing tools within the case company. The project portfolio tool can be taken into use immediately within the case company and it will provide fairly accurate estimate of the profitability figures of the recently sold small projects.

Performance measurement model for projects from a strategic management perspective

This research studied the project performance measurement from the perspective of strategic management. The objective was to find a generic model for project performance measurement that emphasizes strategy and decision making. Research followed the guidelines of a constructive research methodology. As a result, the study suggests a model that measures projects with multiple meters during and after projects. Measurement after the project is suggested to be linked to the strategic performance measures of a company. The measurement should be conducted with centralized project portfolio management e.g. using the project management office in the organization. Metrics, after the project, measure the project’s actual benefit realization. During the project, the metrics are universal and they measure the accomplished objectives relation to costs, schedule and internal resource usage. Outcomes of these measures should be forecasted by using qualitative or stochastic methods. Solid theoretical background for the model was found from the literature that covers the subjects of performance measurement, projects and uncertainty. The study states that the model can be implemented in companies. This statement is supported by empirical evidence from a single case study. The gathering of empiric evidence about the actual usefulness of the model in companies is left to be done by the evaluative research in the future.

Ympäristöjohtaminen tienrakennushankkeessa

Tässä diplomityössä tutkittiin tienrakentamisen aikaista ympäristöjohtamista. Työn tavoitteena oli arvioida jo toteutuneen infrastruktuuriprojektin rakentamisen aikaisen ympäristöjohtamisen onnistumista, verrata toteutunutta ympäristöjohtamista standardiin SFS-EN ISO 14001 ja löytää standardin avulla kehitysehdotukset vastaavanlaisten projektien toteuttamisen aikaiseen ympäristöjohtamiseen tulevaisuudessa. Työ toteutettiin tutkimalla esimerkkiprojektin ympäristönsuojelulle ja ympäristövaikutusten seurannalle tehtyjä suunnitelmia, projektin rakentamisen aikana koottua laatuaineistoa, projektin aikana pidettyjä kokouksia ja tiedotustilaisuuksia sekä haastattelemalla projektin ympäristöjohtamisen toteutuksen kannalta avainhenkilöitä. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että jos projektijohto hyödyntäisi ISO 14001 standardia ym-päristöjohtamisensa perustana vastaavanlaisissa tienrakennusprojekteissa, pystyisi se kehittämään projektin urakoitsijoiden hankintavaihetta, projektin aikaista sisäistä ja ulkoista viestintää sekä projektinjohdon toteuttamaa laadunvalvontaa projektin aikana. ISO 14001 standardin hyödyntäminen projektin toteuttamisen aikaisessa ympäristöjoh-tamisessa vaatisi projektin ylimmän johdon sitoutumista standardin noudattamiseen. Ympäristöjohtaminen tulee implementoida osaksi projektijohtamista ja sen toimijoilla tulee olla konkreettista vaikutusvaltaa projektin toimintaan. Projektijohdon sitoutuminen standardin mukaisuuteen antaa puitteet ja käytännöt sekä vaatia että valvoa projektin toimijoiden ympäristönsuojelun toteutumista, raportointia ja viestintää.

Situational awareness for critical infrastructure protection

Postgraduate seminar series with a title Situational Awareness for Critical Infrastructure Protection held at the Department of Military Technology of the National Defence University in 2015. This book is a collection of some of talks that were presented in the seminar. The papers address designing inter-organizational situation awareness system, principles of designing for situation awareness, situation awareness in distributed teams, vulnerability analysis in a critical system context, tactical Command, Control, Communications, Computers, & Intelligence (C4I) systems, and improving situational awareness in the circle of trust. This set of papers tries to give some insight to current issues of the situation awareness for critical infrastructure protection. The seminar has always made a publication of the papers but this has been an internal publication of the Finnish Defence Forces and has not hindered publication of the papers in international conferences. Publication of these papers in peer reviewed conferences has indeed been always the goal of the seminar, since it teaches writing conference level papers. We still hope that an internal publication in the department series is useful to the Finnish Defence Forces by offering an easy access to these papers.

Development of Project Logistics in Engineering, Procurement and Construction Projects

The aim of this Master’s Thesis is to develop project logistics functions in large scale en-gineering, procurement and construction projects. The background of the research topic is compounded from two separate subjects; OPAL Program and case study of an actual EPC project. The purpose is to examine Project Logistics process in accordance with OPAL Program as well as logistics process in focus EPC project. Both entities are researched by using the case study research methodology. Logistics process of the focus EPC project is described as well as presented and in addi-tion, logistics related findings and observations are introduced. Significant findings and observations are found from logistics costs as well as shipment volume estimations in the early phase of the focus ECP project. A notable finding is also that because goods were transported as readily assembled as possible it caused expensive oversized cargo deliveries. From findings and observation of the focus EPC project it can be derived that logistics has to be involved in the early sales phase in order to receive more accurate logistics cost esti-mations for project deliveries. It is also noticed that in order to obtain savings in logistics costs, oversized deliveries must be avoided.

Lean management implementation in Horizontal Technology Transfer projects

The importance of Technology Transfer activities of companies is underpinned by the changes in technological and economic environments. However, there is still a significant gap in defining possible ways for Technology Transfer projects effectiveness improvement. The Master’s Thesis overviews common problems faced by the companies in implementation of Technology Transfer projects and examines Lean management principles as possible way to improve its effectiveness. Based on the analysis of the relevant scientific literature and results of the survey, conducted among the firms of different types, the approach to Technology Transfer projects implementation with the use of Lean management principles is proposed. The approach serves to solve some of the important problems faced by the managers of Technology Transfer projects. It is envisaged that this approach can help to increase overall Technology Transfer projects’ effectiveness.

Education and development projects in Brazil (1932-2004): political economy perspective

This paper discusses the long-run history of education policies in Brazil. It is suggested that the main reason for the educational backwardness was the existence of strong political interests over education. It is also defended that these interests can be empirically observed in the allocation of public resources between the different levels of education, with political choices favouring specific groups in society. It was not a matter of lack of investment in education, but of inadequate allocation of resources. This pattern of political-based policies created a strong negative path dependence of misallocation of resources in education in Brazil, particularly with significant underinvestment in secondary education.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Rakennusurakan kassavirranhallinta infra-alan yrityksessä

Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää keinot, joilla voidaan alentaa infrateollisuuden yrityksen käyttöpääoman määrää. Tutkimus tehtiin konstruktiivisena tapaustutkimuksena, jossa käytettiin excel –mallia kuvaamaan yksittäisen urakan kassavirtaa. Tutkimukseen valittiin kaksi urakkaa, joiden tulevia kassavirtoja ennustettiin ja seurattiin mallin avulla. Tutkimuksen aikana kehitettiin urakan rahoituseromalli, jolla ennustetaan ja seurataan tulevia kassavirtoja. Tunnuslukuna käytettiin urakan rahoituseroa. Mallin avulla urakalle luotiin maksuerätaulukko. Urakan kustannukset ja tuotot jaksotettiin (aikataulutettiin) malliin, joka näytti urakan rahoituseron. Tutkimuksen tuloksina voidaan sanoa, että merkittävin keino vaikuttaa urakan rahoituseroon, on hyvin muotoiltu maksuerätaulukko. Toinen merkittävä asia on saada maksuerälle laskutuslupa mahdollisimman nopeasti. Laskutusprosessia parantamalla voidaan vaikuttaa positiivisesti urakan rahoituseroon. Tutkimuksen pääpaino oli edellä mainittujen keinojen ympärillä, mutta rahoituseroon voidaan vaikuttaa myös kustannusten hallinnalla. Kustannusten syntymisen ajankohtaan voidaan vaikuttaa mm. aliurakointisopimusten muotoilulla, oikea-aikaisella materiaalin ostamisella ja oikeilla omilla resursseilla.

Screening of power to gas projects

The purpose of this thesis was the screening of power to gas projects worldwide and reviewing the technologies used and applications for the end products. This study focuses solely on technical solutions and feasibility, economical profitability is excluded. With power grids having larger penetrations of intermittent sources such as solar and wind power, the demand and production cannot be balanced in conventional methods. Technologies for storing electric power in times of surplus production are needed, and the concept called power to gas is a solution for this problem. A total of 57 projects mostly located in Europe were reviewed by going through publications, presentations and project web pages. Hydrogen is the more popular end product over methane. Power to gas is a viable concept when power production from intermittent sources needs to be smoothed and time shifted, when carbon free fuels are produced for vehicles and when chemical industry needs carbon neutral raw materials.