A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Genetic analysis of average annual productivity of Nellore breeding cows (COWPROD)

With the aim of estimating the coefficient of heritability of average annual productivity of Nellore cows (COWPROD), a data set from 24,855 animals with known pedigree was analyzed. COWPROD is defined as the amount (in kilograms) of weaned calves produced yearly by one cow during her remaining time in herd ignoring a fixed period of 365 days. COWPROD was calculated regarding three standards: a) based on the post-weaning weight from the calves ignoring any kind of adjustment (COWPROD_NAJ), b) adjusted weight for the fixed effects (COWPROD_AJFIX) and c) adjusted weight for the fixed effects and for the genetic merit of the sire (COWPROD_AJFIN). The obtained heritabilities were 0.15, 0.15 and 0.16 for COWPROD_NAJ, COWPROD_AJFIX and COWPROD_AJFIN, respectively. A complete set composed of 105,158 COWPROD records on 130,740 animals in pedigree was also analyzed for predicting the genetic merit of all animals in the data set and for the calculation of the genetic, phenotypic and residual trends. Ranking correlation was high for the adjusted and non-adjusted data, yet, for some of the animals, the difference among the genetic values was large. This would be an indication that it would be better to work always with the adjusted weaning weights. The genetic trend was positive, but was of small magnitude (0.26% of the trait average) and the residual trend was negative as a consequence of the large intensification of the production system, which has been occurring in the last years in the farms studied. The phenotypic trend was also negative and intermediate between the genetic and the residual ones.

Time correlation function in systems with two coexisting biological species

We study a stochastic lattice model describing the dynamics of coexistence of two interacting biological species. The model comprehends the local processes of birth, death, and diffusion of individuals of each species and is grounded on interaction of the predator-prey type. The species coexistence can be of two types: With self-sustained coupled time oscillations of population densities and without oscillations. We perform numerical simulations of the model on a square lattice and analyze the temporal behavior of each species by computing the time correlation functions as well as the spectral densities. This analysis provides an appropriate characterization of the different types of coexistence. It is also used to examine linked population cycles in nature and in experiment.

Topology Studies of Hydrodynamics Using Two-Particle Correlation Analysis

The effects of fluctuating initial conditions are studied in the context of relativistic heavy ion collisions where a rapidly evolving system is formed. Two-particle correlation analysis is applied to events generated with the NEXSPHERIO hydrodynamic code, starting with fluctuating nonsmooth initial conditions (IC). The results show that the nonsmoothness in the IC survives the hydroevolution and can be seen as topological features of the angular correlation function of the particles emerging from the evolving system. A long range correlation is observed in the longitudinal direction and in the azimuthal direction a double peak structure is observed in the opposite direction to the trigger particle. This analysis provides clear evidence that these are signatures of the combined effect of tubular structures present in the IC and the proceeding collective dynamics of the hot and dense medium.

New familial assignments for three species of Neotropical harvestmen based on cladistic analysis (Arachnida: Opiliones: Laniatores)

We herein propose transfer of the two monotypic genera Globibunus (type-species G. rubrofemoratus Roewer, 1912) and Rivetinus (type-species R. minutus Roewer, 1919) to the subfamily Zamorinae (Agoristenidae) and Ramonus (type-species R. conifrons Roewer, 1956), previous placed in Agoristenidae, to the Prostygninae (Cranaidae) based on several characteristics of male genitalia. These transfers are corroborated by a cladistic analysis, which also recovered the three currently recognized agoristenid subfamilies.

Chemical composition and sensory analysis of cheese whey-based beverages using kefir grains as starter culture

P>The aim of the present work was to evaluate the use of the kefir grains as a starter culture for tradicional milk kefir beverage and for cheese whey-based beverages production. Fermentation was performed by inoculating kefir grains in milk (ML), cheese whey (CW) and deproteinised cheese whey (DCW). Erlenmeyers containing kefir grains and different substrates were statically incubated for 72 h at 25 degrees C. Lactose, ethanol, lactic acid, acetic acid, acetaldehyde, ethyl acetate, isoamyl alcohol, isobutanol, 1-propanol, isopentyl alcohol and 1-hexanol were identified and quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography and GC-FID. The results showed that kefir grains were able to utilise lactose in 60 h from ML and 72 h from CW and DCW and produce similar amounts of ethanol (similar to 12 g L-1), lactic acid (similar to 6 g L-1) and acetic acid (similar to 1.5 g L-1) to those obtained during milk fermentation. Based on the chemical characteristics and acceptance in the sensory analysis, the kefir grains showed potential to be used for developing cheese whey-based beverages.

Transmission loss allocation based on optimal power flow and sensitivity analysis

This paper presents a new approach to the transmission loss allocation problem in a deregulated system. This approach belongs to the set of incremental methods. It treats all the constraints of the network, i.e. control, state and functional constraints. The approach is based on the perturbation of optimum theorem. From a given optimal operating point obtained by the optimal power flow the loads are perturbed and a new optimal operating point that satisfies the constraints is determined by the sensibility analysis. This solution is used to obtain the allocation coefficients of the losses for the generators and loads of the network. Numerical results show the proposed approach in comparison to other methods obtained with well-known transmission networks, IEEE 14-bus. Other test emphasizes the importance of considering the operational constraints of the network. And finally the approach is applied to an actual Brazilian equivalent network composed of 787 buses, and it is compared with the technique used nowadays by the Brazilian Control Center. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dual boundary element formulation applied to analysis of multi-fractured domains

This paper deals with analysis of multiple random crack propagation in two-dimensional domains using the boundary element method (BEM). BEM is known to be a robust and accurate numerical technique for analysing this type of problem. The formulation adopted in this work is based on the dual BEM, for which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. We propose an iterative scheme to predict the crack growth path and the crack length increment at each time step. The proposed scheme able us to simulate localisation and coalescence phenomena, which is the main contribution of this paper. Considering the fracture mechanics analysis, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate the stress intensity factors. The propagation angle and the equivalent stress intensity factor are calculated using the theory of maximum circumferential stress. Examples of simple and multi-fractured domains, loaded up to the rupture, are considered to illustrate the applicability of the proposed scheme. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A BEM model applied to failure analysis of multi-fractured structures

Due to manufacturing or damage process, brittle materials present a large number of micro-cracks which are randomly distributed. The lifetime of these materials is governed by crack propagation under the applied mechanical and thermal loadings. In order to deal with these kinds of materials, the present work develops a boundary element method (BEM) model allowing for the analysis of multiple random crack propagation in plane structures. The adopted formulation is based on the dual BEM, for which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. An iterative scheme to predict the crack growth path and crack length increment is proposed. This scheme enables us to simulate the localization and coalescence phenomena, which are the main contribution of this paper. Considering the fracture mechanics approach, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate the stress intensity factors. The propagation angle and the equivalent stress intensity factor are calculated using the theory of maximum circumferential stress. Examples of multi-fractured domains, loaded up to rupture, are considered to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning Profile Identification Based on the Analysis of the User Context of Interaction

One of the e-learning environment goal is to attend the individual needs of students during the learning process. The adaptation of contents, activities and tools into different visualization or in a variety of content types is an important feature of this environment, bringing to the user the sensation that there are suitable workplaces to his profile in the same system. Nevertheless, it is important the investigation of student behaviour aspects, considering the context where the interaction happens, to achieve an efficient personalization process. The paper goal is to present an approach to identify the student learning profile analyzing the context of interaction. Besides this, the learning profile could be analyzed in different dimensions allows the system to deal with the different focus of the learning.

Void fraction measurement and signal analysis from multiple-electrode impedance sensors

Void fraction sensors are important instruments not only for monitoring two-phase flow, but for furnishing an important parameter for obtaining flow map pattern and two-phase flow heat transfer coefficient as well. This work presents the experimental results obtained with the analysis of two axially spaced multiple-electrode impedance sensors tested in an upward air-water two-phase flow in a vertical tube for void fraction measurements. An electronic circuit was developed for signal generation and post-treatment of each sensor signal. By phase shifting the electrodes supplying the signal, it was possible to establish a rotating electric field sweeping across the test section. The fundamental principle of using a multiple-electrode configuration is based on reducing signal sensitivity to the non-uniform cross-section void fraction distribution problem. Static calibration curves were obtained for both sensors, and dynamic signal analyses for bubbly, slug, and turbulent churn flows were carried out. Flow parameters such as Taylor bubble velocity and length were obtained by using cross-correlation techniques. As an application of the void fraction tested, vertical flow pattern identification could be established by using the probability density function technique for void fractions ranging from 0% to nearly 70%.

Vortex configuration flow cell based on low temperature cofired ceramics as a compact chemiluminescence microsystern

The integration of optical detection methods in continuous flow microsystems can highly extend their range of application, as long as some negative effects derived from their scaling down can be minimized. Downsizing affects to a greater extent the sensitivity of systems based on absorbance measurements than the sensitivity of those based on emission ones. However, a careful design of the instrumental setup is needed to maintain the analytical features in both cases. In this work, we present the construction and evaluation of a simple miniaturized optical system, which integrates a novel flow cell configuration to carry out chemiluminescence (CL) measurements using a simple photodiode. It consists of a micro-mixer based on a vortex structure, which has been constructed by means of the low-temperature cofired ceramics (LTCC) technology. This mixer not only efficiently promotes the CL reaction due to the generated high turbulence but also allows the detection to be carried out in the same area, avoiding intensity signal losses. As a demonstration, a flow injection system has been designed and optimized for the detection of cobalt(H) in water samples. It shows a linear response between 2 and 20 mu M with a correlation of r > 0.993, a limit of detection of 1.1 mu M, a repeatability of RSD = 12.4 %, and an analysis time of 17 s. These results demonstrate the suitability of the proposal to the determination of compounds involved in CL reactions by means of an easily constructed versatile device based on low-cost instrumentation.

Anodic porous alumina structural characteristics study based on SEM image processing and analysis

The present work reports the porous alumina structures fabrication and their quantitative structural characteristics study based on mathematical morphology analysis by using the SEM images. The algorithm used in this work was implemented in 6.2 MATLAB software. Using the algorithm it was possible to obtain the distribution of maximum, minimum and average radius of the pores in porous alumina structures. Additionally, with the calculus of the area occupied by the pores, it was possible to obtain the porosity of the structures. The quantitative results could be obtained and related to the process fabrication characteristics, showing to be reliable and promising to be used to control the pores formation process. Then, this technique could provide a more accurate determination of pore sizes and pores distribution. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the genetic variability of orchid fleck virus by single-strand conformational polymorphism analysis and nucleotide sequencing of a fragment from the nucleocapsid gene

The variability of a fragment of the nucleocapsid gene of orchid fleck virus (OFV) was investigated by single-strand conformational polymorphism (SSCP) analysis and nucleotide sequencing. Forty-eight samples of 18 genera of orchids were collected from Brazil, Costa Rica and Australia. The SSCP analysis yielded six different band patterns, and phylogenetic analysis based on the nucleotide fragment sequence obtained in this work and six available in GenBank showed two different groups, one with isolates 023Germany and So-Japan, and other with the rest of the isolates. None of the analyses showed geographic correlation among the Brazilian strains. The data obtained in this study showed a low genetic variation in this region of the genome; the d(N)/d(S) ratio of 0.251-0.405 demonstrated a negative selective pressure that maintains the stability of the analyzed fragments.

Correlation between sensory and chemical markers in the evaluation of Brazil nut oxidative shelf-life

Sensory analysis is one of the most suitable processes for measuring oxidative damage and determining the shelf-life of nuts, but it is an expensive and time-consuming methodology. Thus, our objective was to correlate sensory data and chemical markers obtained during the accelerated oxidation of Brazil nuts and to determine the chemical parameters values associated with the sensory shelf-life of the nuts as established by the consumers. Brazil nuts were kept at 80 A degrees C for 21 days. At intervals of 2 days, the oxidized odor of the samples was analyzed by nine trained panelists using a discriminative scale, and the oil was extracted to quantify the chemical parameters. A high (r > 0.95) and significant correlation (p < 0.05) was observed between the sensory data and the hydroperoxide concentration (PV), para-anisidine value (pAV), hexanal content, and alpha- and gamma-tocopherol concentrations. When compared with fresh samples, sensory identification of oxidized odor occurred on the 4th day, noticeably earlier than changes in chemical markers (12th day). Consumers rejected the nuts after 12 days of storage, which corresponded to PV = 18.8 meq kg(-1) oil, pAV = 7.68, hexanal = 48.95 mu mol 100 g(-1) oil, alpha-tocopherol = 15.01 mg kg(-1) oil, and gamma + beta-tocopherol = 73.88 mg kg(-1) oil. Our study suggests that simple spectrometric methods, such as PV and pAV, can be used to estimate the oxidative shelf-life of nuts based on sensory analysis.