L'impact de la volatilité des taux de change sur le commerce international : essai de validation empirique désagrégées des exportations sectorielles canadiennes vers les États-Unis via une approche d'estimation VAR

La présente étude offre un panorama sur les interactions et les liens qui existent entre la volatilité des taux de change et les échanges internationaux. L’objectif de ce travail est donc de présenter théoriquement cette relation, puis d’examiner empiriquement l’existence de cette relation de causalité entre le commerce international et la variabilité des taux de change. La littérature portant sur la question se considère dans l'ensemble comme contradictoire et supporte plusieurs controverses qui ne nous permettent pas de conclure clairement quant à la relation en question. Nous essayerons de pousser ces recherches un peu plus loin en réexaminant cette évidence pour le canada et en offrant une investigation empirique sur l’existence éventuelle d'un impact significatif de la volatilité sur les flux désagrégées des exportations sectoriels du canada vers son partenaire, les États-Unis. Nous y examinons la réponse empirique de 5 secteurs d’exportations canadiennes aux variations du taux de change réel effectif entre le canada et les États- Unis. Toutefois, nos résultats obtenus ne nous permettent pas de conclure quant à la significativité relative d’un impact de volatilité de taux de change sur les exportations sectoriels désagrégées destinées aux États-Unis. Dans l’ensemble, même si on admet que les signe des coefficients estimés de la variable de risque dans chaque secteur est négatif, nous arrivons à la conclusion que la volatilité ne semble pas avoir un impact statistiquement significatif sur le volume réelle des exportations du Canada vers les États-Unis.

Inférence exacte simulée et techniques d'estimation dans les modèles VAR et VARMA avec applications macroéconomiques

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Modélisation MHD tridimensionnelle de tubes de flux coronaux utilisant l'assimilation des donnés 4D-VAR

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

INTRACELLULAR OSMOREGULATION IN THE ESTUARINE MOLLUSC VILLORITA CYPRINOIDES VAR. COCHINENSIS (Mollusca: Bivalvia) Hanley

The present investigation is dedicated to understanding various mechanisms of salinity tolerance in the estuarine clam V. cyprinoides var. cochinensis. Even though V. cyprinoids var. cochinensis and V. cyprinoides are found to coexist in the same area, V. cyprinoids is reported to tolerate higher salinities than variety cochinenesis. Variations in the salinity of sea water may affect the aquatic organisms through specific gravity control and variations in osmotic pressure. The specific gravity of most soft tissues is close to that of normal seawater. Many bottom living forms, both attached and motile, have very high specific gravities eg.villorita cyprinoids. Villorita spp. Occurs abundantly in the reaches of the estuary and backwaters of Kerala. In both marine and estuarine forms, it is observed that mantle employs a lesser quantity of amino acids compared to adductor and foot. The regulation of cell volume is not carried out equally in all types of tissues. The capability of salinity tolerance is an aggregate of both the capabilities of extra cellular anisosmotic and intracellular isosmotic regulations in osmoconforming animals. The ultimate aim of water regulation is to regulate the cell volume.T here are slight changes occur in cell volume even in osmoregulators. These studies can also help in revealing the changes brought about in the cellular organelles like lysosomes, which were found to have a role in the osmoregulatory process. The osmoregulatory machinery of estuarine animals is more streamlined for a successful life in the estuarine regime.

Studies on the effect of the organophosphorus pesticide Eka(Rlu) x EC 25 on the bacterial flora of Villorita cyprinoides var. cochinensis (Han1ey)

The thesis is Studies on the Effect or the Obganophosphorus Pesticide Ekalux(R) EC 25 on the Bacterial Flora or Villorita Cyprinoides Var.Cochinensis (Hanley). For the present investigation, the black clam Villorita gyprinoides var. cochinensis (Hanley), a most common clam genus present in this estuarine system has been selected as test organaism and Ekalux (R) EC 25 as toxicant. The aspects dealt with are 1. Total heterotrophic bacterial population, 2. Generic composition, 3. Hydrolytic enzyme producing bacteria, 4. Antibiotic resistance, 5. Heavy metal resistance, 6. The effect of pesticide concentration on the growth of the bacteria and 7. Effect of temperature, pH and sodium chloride on the growth and phosphate release of selected isolates.The samples for the experiment were collected from the Vembanad Lake, near Kumbalam Island during the period of September 1985 to May '86. The THB of the estuarine water and clams contained 6.5 x I04/ml and 2.975 x l06/g respectively, immediately after collection. Untreated water and clam samples showed enormous increase in THB from 0 hr population. The treated samples (water and clams) contained higher THB than 0 hr. In general, THB was observed to increase tremendously in the samples treated with pesticide when compared to their native flora. With reference to various concentrations of pesticides, THB recorded an increase with increase of concentration in water and clam samples.

Quantization of specific trace metals in bivalve, Villorita Cyprinoides Var Cochinensis in the Cochin estuary

Present study consists the quantization of specific metals-- Cr, Cd, Pb, Zn and Cu observed in the experimental bivalve, Villorita species. Bivalve specimens were collected seasonally from the identified three hot spots of Vembanad Lake. Soft tissue concentrations of metals are very sensitive in reflecting changes in the ambient environment and hence important in assessing the environmental quality. Concentrations of Zn in bivalves were fairly high compared to other metals. All the stations showed a maximum concentration during premonsoon and minimum during the other two seasons. Levels of Pb, Cu, Zn, Cd and Cr are between 0-6.17mg/kg, 0-17.224mg/kg, 1.916-255.163mg/kg, 0.325-4.133mg/kg, and 0-15.233mg/kg respectively

In vitro characterization of two small nucleolytic ribozymes-the hairpin and the hammerhead ribozymes in their natural context

Hairpin Ribozyme kommen natürlich in den Minussträngen der Satelliten RNAs dreier Pflanzenviren (sTRsV, sArMV and sCYMoV) vor. In dieser Arbeit wurden mit dem Programm Mfold darin mehrere distinkte Sekundärstrukturelemente gefunden, die außerhalb des katalytischen Zentrums der Ribozyme lokalisieren. Verschiedene Varianten der drei Ribozyme wurden hergestellt und die Funktion der beobachteten peripheren Strukturelemente biochemisch untersucht. Die sTRsV Hairpin Ribozyme mit unterschiedlichen Längen in Arm C wiesen ähnliche cis-Spaltungsreaktionen auf, unabhängig von der Anzahl interner bulges in Arm C. Das gleiche Verhalten, jedoch bei schnelleren Spaltungsraten, wurde nach Entfernen der three-way junction, die 3’ von der Spaltstelle in Arm A liegt, beobachtet. Hier hat Arm C demnach keinen Einfluss auf die Katalyse, wogegen ein verlängerter Arm A die Reaktion verlangsamt. Unter den experimentellen Bedingungen war die Rückreaktion in Anwesenheit des natürlichen Arms A nicht messbar. Im Gegensatz dazu zeigten alle Varianten ohne die Arm A Erweiterung Ligationsaktivität, die am höchsten in dem Molekül mit dem längsten Arm C war, und gleichermaßen erniedrigt für zwei Varianten mit kürzerem Arm C. Keine der Reaktionen diverser sArMV Hairpin Ribozyme konnte reproduzierbar analysiert werden. Für das sCYMoV Hairpin Ribozym wurde schließlich in cis-Spaltungsreaktionen eine Zunahme der Geschwindigkeit mit Abnahme der Länge von Arm D beobachtet. Dies war der Fall in Anwesenheit der three-way junction in Arm A, nicht jedoch in ihrer Abwesenheit, wo Varianten mit unterschiedlichen Längen des Arms D ähnliche Spaltungsreaktionen aufwiesen. In Anwesenheit der three-way junction in Arm A war eine Reduzierung der Ligationsgeschwindigkeit zu beobachten, und bei ihrer Abwesenheit stieg diese mit der Länge von Arm D. Dies zeigt, dass sowohl die three-way junction in Arm A, als auch die Länge und Anzahl der bulges in Arm D die Reaktion des Hairpin Ribozyms aus sCYMoV beeinflussen, wobei sich Unterschiede in Vorwärts- und Rückreaktion auf die experimentellen Bedingungen zurückführen lassen. In zwei Serien wurde die zentrale five-way junction dieses Ribozyms durch verschiedene four-way junctions ersetzt. Die kinetischen Parameter der Selbstspaltung waren ähnlich für Varianten ohne Arm E auf, jedoch verlangsamt bei Varianten ohne Arm C. Dies zeigt, dass das sCYMoV Hairpin Ribozym auch um eine four-way junction gebildet werden kann, deren konstituierenden Helices jedoch nicht beliebig sind. In einem zweiten Projekt wurde die Konservierung von Hammerhead Ribozym-motiven, die bereits früher im Genom der Brassicacee A. thaliana gefunden worden waren, exemplarisch an zehn Mitgliedern dieser Familie untersucht. Da deren Genome nicht sequenziert sind, wurde PCR mit Primern angewandt, die für die A. thaliana Motive spezifisch waren. Damit konnten Ribozymmotive in allen untersuchten Brassicaceen außer B. nigra and B. oleracea gefunden werden. Diese gehören zu den sechs Brassica Pflanzen, für die der koreanische Botaniker U 1935 im “triangle of U” die genetische Verwandtschaft beschrieb. Darin ist B. carinata, für die Ribozymmotive gezeigt wurden, die Tochterspezies der Brassica Pflanzen ohne diese Motive. Dieser Widerspruch könnte darauf zurückzuführen sein, dass in der PCR unspezifische Primer genutzt wurden, oder aber die Motive aus B. carinata könnten ein Artefakt aus einer Luft-übertragenen Kontamination sein. Technische Schwierigkeiten in der Durchführung von Southern Blots, mit denen zwischen diesen Möglichkeiten unterschieden werden sollte, haben eine abschließende Antwort verhindert. Nach einer Optimierung der Methode sollte diese aber geeignet sein, diese Frage zu klären.

Urban and peri-urban agricultural production along railway tracks: a case study from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region

Urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) contributes to food security, serves as an opportunity for income generation, and provides recreational services to urban citizens. With a population of 21 Million people, of which 60 % live in slums, UPA activities can play a crucial role in supporting people’s livelihoods in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). This study was conducted to characterize the railway gardens, determine their role in UPA production, and assess potential risks. It comprises a baseline survey among 38 railway gardeners across MMR characterized by different demographic, socio-economic, migratory, and labour characteristics. Soil, irrigation water, and plant samples were analyzed for nutrients, heavy metals, and microbial load. All the railway gardeners practiced agriculture as a primary source of income and cultivated seasonal vegetables such as lady’s finger (Abelmoschus esculentus L. Moench), spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.), red amaranth (Amaranthus cruentus L.), and white radish (Raphanus sativus var. longipinnatus) which were irrigated with waste water. This irrigation water was loaded with 7–28 mg N l^(−1), 0.3–7 mg P l^(−1), and 8–32 mg K l^(−1), but also contained heavy metals such as lead (0.02–0.06 mg Pb l^(−1)), cadmium (0.03–0.17 mg Cd l^(−1)), mercury (0.001–0.005 mg Hg l^(−1)), and pathogens such as Escherichia coli (1,100 most probable number per 100 ml). Levels of heavy metals exceeded the critical thresholds in surface soils (Cr, Ni, and Sr) and produce (Pb, Cd, and Sr). The railway garden production systems can substantially foster employment and reduce economic deprivation of urban poor particularly slum dwellers and migrant people. However this production system may also cause possible health risks to producers and consumers.

Influence of pre-plant densities of Meloidogyne incognita on growth and root infestation of spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) (Amaranthaceae) – an important dimension towards enhancing crop production

Vegetables represent a main source of micro-nutrients which can improve the health status of malnourished poor in the world. Spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) is a popular leafy vegetable in many countries which is rich with several important micro-nutrients. Thus, consuming Spinach helps to overcome micro-nutrient deficiencies. Pests and pathogens act as major yield constraints in food production. Root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne species, constitute a large group of highly destructive plant pests. Spinach is found to be highly susceptible for these nematode attacks. Though agricultural production has largely benefited from modern technologies and innovations, some important dimensions which can minimize the yield losses have been neglected by most of the growers. Pre-plant or initial nematode density in soil is a crucial biotic factor which is directly responsible for crop losses. Hence, information on preplant nematode densities and the corresponding damage is of vital importance to develop successful control procedures to enhance crop production. In the present study, effect of seven initial densities of M. incognita, i.e., 156, 312, 625, 1250, 2,500, 5,000 and 10,000 infective juveniles (IJs)/plant (equivalent to 1000cm3 soil) on the growth and root infestation on potted spinach plants was determined in a screen house. In order to ensure a high accuracy, root infestation was ascertained by the number of galls formed, the percentage galled-length of feeder roots and galled-feeder roots, and egg production, per plant. Fifty days post-inoculation, shoot length and weight, and root length were suppressed at the lowest IJs density. However, the pathogenic effect was pronounced at the highest density at which 43%, 46% and 45% reduction in shoot length and weight, and root length, respectively, was recorded. The highest reduction in root weight (26%) was detected at the second highest density. The Number of galls and percentage galled-length of feeder roots/per plant showed significant progressive increase across the increasing IJs density with the highest mean value of 432.3 and 54%, respectively. The two shoot growth parameters and root length showed significant inverse relationship with the increasing gall formation. Moreover, the shoot and root length were shown to be mutually dependent on each other. Suppression of shoot growth of spinach greatly affects the grower’s economy. Hence, control measures are essentially needed to ensure a better production of spinach via reducing the pre-plant density below the level of 0.156 IJs/cm3.

A survey of brassica vegetable smallholder farmers in the Gauteng and Limpopo provinces of South Africa

A study was taken to investigate the types of brassica vegetables mostly grown by smallholder farmers in two provinces of South Africa. Thirty-one smallholder vegetable farmers in the Gauteng province and Waterberg district in the Limpopo province were surveyed. In addition, the study also sought to establish the common diseases, the management strategies used and problems encountered by the farmers. Farmers were interviewed using a questionnaire with closed and open–ended questions. The results indicated that the smallholder farmers mostly grew cabbage (93.6%) as their main brassica crop followed by rape (41.2%). Thirty percent of farmers could not identify or name the predominant disease/s encountered in their fields. Major diseases encountered by farmers surveyed were an unknown disease/s (33.3%), black rot (26.7%), Alternaria leaf spot (6.7%) and white rust (6.7%). Smallholder farmers have inadequate technical information available especially relating to crop diseases, their identification and control. Farmers encountered challenges with black rot disease especially on cabbage, rape and kale and the disease was a problem during winter and summer. Generally, the smallholder farmers used crop rotation (74.2%) as a major practice to manage the diseases experienced. They rotated their brassica vegetables with other crops/vegetables like tomatoes, onions, beetroots and maize. Most of the farmers interviewed (61.3%) did not use chemicals to control diseases, whereas 38.7% of them used chemicals. This was mostly because they lacked information and knowledge, high costs associated with use of chemical fungicides and some were shifting towards organic farming. From the study it was noted that there was a need for technical support to improve farmers’ knowledge on disease identification and control within the surveyed areas.

Medidas de riesgo, características y técnicas de medición: una aplicación del VaR y el ES a la tasa interbancaria de Colombia

Este texto describe en detalle diversas metodologías que permiten calcular dos medidas utilizadas para cuantificar el riesgo de mercado asociado a un activo financiero: el valor en riesgo VAR y el Expected Shortfall (ES). Los métodos analizados se basan en técnicas estadísticas apropiadas para el caso de series financieras, como son los modelos ARIMA, GARCH y modelos basados en la teoría del valor extremo. Estas metodologías se aplican a las variaciones diarias de la tasa interbancaria de Colombia para el período comprendido entre 1995 y 2004. Los conceptos utilizados en este texto suponen que el lector esté familiarizado con algunos elementos básicos de estadística, series de tiempo y finanzas. Se trata, por tanto, de un texto escrito para estudiantes de economía y finanzas de últimos cursos de pregrado, maestría y para profesionales interesados en el tema.

Respuesta del producto con respecto a la política monetaria, el gasto de déficit, y la depreciación de la moneda en Venezuela: un modelo VAR.

Este estudio aplica el modelo VAR para hallar posibles respuestas del PIB real a variables macroeconómicas seleccionadas en Venezuela. Basado en una muestra anual de 1961-2001, el autor encuentra que el PIB real responde positivamente a choques en el M2 real, al déficit del gobierno, a la depreciación de la tasa de cambio y al producto rezagado, y negativamente a choques en la inflación durante algunos períodos de tiempo. Excepto por el producto rezagado, el déficit del gobierno y la inflación son las variables que tienen mayor influencia en el primer año. El M2 real y la tasa de cambio real son las que más influyen y tienen impactos de más largo plazo después del primer año.

Madrid desde el Cerro Almod??var

Material sin publicar

Estructura del portafolio de inversiones con el VAR (Valué at Risk)

El propósito general de este trabajo de investigación es el de identificar las herramientas que permitan evaluar riesgos, poder determinar un modelo de ayuda para la estructuración de portafolios y así retribuir al inversionista la mejor manera con un premio por riesgo en retorno de su inversión, Además de presentar un instrumento y demostrar las ventajas de su utilización en la valoración de riesgos en portafolios, se pretende distinguir los efectos económicos y financieros que el inversionista enfrenta. Para cumplir con este propósito, se realizo un diagnóstico y análisis de la actividad de los mercados Financieros y de Capitales, determinando los factores más importantes dentro de un modelo de valoración de riesgo para la estructura de un portafolio de renta variable, lo que me permitirá presentar de una manera clara, los aspectos técnicos y económicos que afectan a la estructura de una inversión aplicando la metodología denominada VAR (Valué at Risk); adicionalmente el manejo que se podría dar a las mismas para obtener un mayor beneficio. Los resultados obtenidos y su respectivo análisis constan a lo largo de este trabajo de investigación.

Gestión de riesgo de liquidez en Mutualista Pichincha: metodología VAR para determinar la volatilidad las fuentes de sondeo

La presente disertación tiene como objetivo la evaluación de la metodología VAR, tanto histórica como paramétrica, a las fuentes de fondeo de Mutualista Pichincha, con el fin de determinar el nivel de liquidez requiere la institución para cubrir el riesgo de volatilidad de estas fuentes. El primer capítulo describe el riesgo de liquidez, sus principales fuentes de origen, la importancia de su gestión. Se presenta un análisis de la normativa ecuatoriana en lo que tiene que ver a riesgo de liquidez. El segundo capítulo de este trabajo se centra en la teoría del Valor en Riesgo, explicando las principales metodologías para calcularlo, los supuestos en lo que se basa y las ventajas de su aplicación. En el tercer capítulo se presenta una breve reseña de las actividades de Mutualista Pichincha, se analiza la aplicación de la normativa ecuatoriana en la institución financiera. En base al estudio de las metodología VAR realizas a las fuentes de fondeo, se selección el método de cálculo del VAR mas adecuado. Por último, el cuarto capítulo corresponde las conclusiones y recomendaciones, resultado del estudio realizado.