Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Multiple stationary solutions of an irradiated slab

A mathematical model describing the heat budget of an irradiated medium is introduced. The one-dimensional form of the equations and boundary conditions are presented and analysed. Heat transport at one face of the slab occurs by absorption (and reflection) of an incoming beam of short-wave radiation with a fraction of this radiation penetrating into the body of the slab, a diffusive heat flux in the slab and a prescribed incoming heat flux term. The other face of the slab is immersed in its own melt and is considered to be a free surface. Here, temperature continuity is prescribed and evolution of the surface is determined by a Stefan condition. These boundary conditions are flexible enough to describe a range of situations such as a laser shining on an opaque medium, or the natural environment of polar sea ice or lake ice. A two-stream radiation model is used which replaces the simple Beer’s law of radiation attenuation frequently used for semi-infinite domains. The stationary solutions of the governing equations are sought and it is found that there exists two possible stationary solutions for a given set of boundary conditions and a range of parameter choices. It is found that the existence of two stationary solutions is a direct result of the model of radiation absorption, due to its effect on the albedo of the medium. A linear stability analysis and numerical calculations indicate that where two stationary solutions exist, the solution corresponding to a larger thickness is always stable and the solution corresponding to a smaller thickness is unstable. Numerical simulations reveal that when there are two solutions, if the slab is thinner than the smaller stationary thickness it will melt completely, whereas if the slab is thicker than the smaller stationary thickness it will evolve toward the larger stationary thickness. These results indicate that other mechanisms (e.g. wave-induced agglomeration of crystals) are necessary to grow a slab from zero initial thickness in the parameter regime that yields two stationary solutions.

Gap solitons in a model of a superfluid fermion gas in optical lattices

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multiobjective optimization of economic balances of sugarcane harvest biomass

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Design of microirrigation systems in sloping lands using linear programming

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Active control in flexible plates with piezoelectric actuators using linear matrix inequalities

The study of algorithms for active vibrations control in flexible structures became an area of enormous interest, mainly due to the countless demands of an optimal performance of mechanical systems as aircraft, aerospace and automotive structures. Smart structures, formed by a structure base, coupled with piezoelectric actuators and sensor are capable to guarantee the conditions demanded through the application of several types of controllers. The actuator/sensor materials are composed by piezoelectric ceramic (PZT - Lead Zirconate Titanate), commonly used as distributed actuators, and piezoelectric plastic films (PVDF-PolyVinyliDeno Floride), highly indicated for distributed sensors. The design process of such system encompasses three main phases: structural design; optimal placement of sensor/actuator (PVDF and PZT); and controller design. Consequently, for optimal design purposes, the structure, the sensor/actuator placement and the controller have to be considered simultaneously. This article addresses the optimal placement of actuators and sensors for design of controller for vibration attenuation in a flexible plate. Techniques involving linear matrix inequalities (LMI) to solve the Riccati's equation are used. The controller's gain is calculated using the linear quadratic regulator (LQR). The major advantage of LMI design is to enable specifications such as stability degree requirements, decay rate, input force limitation in the actuators and output peak bounder. It is also possible to assume that the model parameters involve uncertainties. LMI is a very useful tool for problems with constraints, where the parameters vary in a range of values. Once formulated in terms of LMI a problem can be solved efficiently by convex optimization algorithms.

Bilevel approach for optimal location and contract pricing of distributed generation in radial distribution systems using mixed-integer linear programming

In this study, a novel approach for the optimal location and contract pricing of distributed generation (DG) is presented. Such an approach is designed for a market environment in which the distribution company (DisCo) can buy energy either from the wholesale energy market or from the DG units within its network. The location and contract pricing of DG is determined by the interaction between the DisCo and the owner of the distributed generators. The DisCo intends to minimise the payments incurred in meeting the expected demand, whereas the owner of the DG intends to maximise the profits obtained from the energy sold to the DisCo. This two-agent relationship is modelled in a bilevel scheme. The upper-level optimisation is for determining the allocation and contract prices of the DG units, whereas the lower-level optimisation is for modelling the reaction of the DisCo. The bilevel programming problem is turned into an equivalent single-level mixed-integer linear optimisation problem using duality properties, which is then solved using commercially available software. Results show the robustness and efficiency of the proposed model compared with other existing models. As regards to contract pricing, the proposed approach allowed to find better solutions than those reported in previous works. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

A new method for decision making in multi-objective optimization problems

Many engineering sectors are challenged by multi-objective optimization problems. Even if the idea behind these problems is simple and well established, the implementation of any procedure to solve them is not a trivial task. The use of evolutionary algorithms to find candidate solutions is widespread. Usually they supply a discrete picture of the non-dominated solutions, a Pareto set. Although it is very interesting to know the non-dominated solutions, an additional criterion is needed to select one solution to be deployed. To better support the design process, this paper presents a new method of solving non-linear multi-objective optimization problems by adding a control function that will guide the optimization process over the Pareto set that does not need to be found explicitly. The proposed methodology differs from the classical methods that combine the objective functions in a single scale, and is based on a unique run of non-linear single-objective optimizers.

Dynamic analysis of piled foundations in stratified soils by a BEM-FEM model

[EN] 3D BEM-FEM coupling model is used to study the dynamic behavior of piled foundations in elastic layered soils in presenceof a rigid bedrock. Piles are modelled by FEM as beams according to the Bernoulli hpothesis, and every layer of the soil is modelled by BEM as a cointinuum, semi-infinite, isotropic, homogeneous, linear, viscoelastic medium.

BEM-FEM coupling model for the dynamic analysis of piles and pile groups

[EN] This paper shows a BEM-FEM coupling model for the time harmonic dynamic analysis of piles and pile groups embeddes in an elastic half-space. Piles are modelled using Finite Elements (FEM) as a beam according to the Bernoulli hypothesis, while the soil modelled using  Boundary Elements (BEM) as a continuum, semi-infinite, isotropic, homogeneous or zoned homogeneous, linear, viscoelastic medium.

Magma-Driven Multiple Dike Propagation and Fracture Toughness of Crustal Rocks

Dike swarms consisting of tens to thousands of subparallel dikes are commonly observed at Earth's surface, raising the possibility of simultaneous propagation of two or more dikes at various stages of a swarm's development. The behavior of multiple propagating dikes differs from that of a single dike owing to the interacting stress fields associated with each dike. We analyze an array of parallel, periodically spaced dikes that grow simultaneously from an overpressured source into a semi-infinite, linear elastic host rock. To simplify the analysis, we assume steady state (constant velocity) magma flow and dike propagation. We use a perturbation method to analyze the coupled, nonlinear problem of multiple dike propagation and magma transport. The stress intensity factor at the dike tips and the opening displacements of the dike surfaces are calculated. The numerical results show that dike spacing has a profound effect on the behavior of dike propagation. The stress intensity factors at the tips of parallel dikes decrease with a decrease in dike spacing and are significantly smaller than that for a single dike with the same length. The reduced stress intensity factor indicates that, compared to a single dike, propagation of parallel dikes is more likely to be arrested under otherwise the same conditions. It also implies that fracture toughness of the host rock in a high confining pressure environment may not be as high as inferred from the propagation of a single dike. Our numerical results suggest fracture toughness values on the order of 100 MPa root m. The opening displacements for parallel dikes are smaller than that for a single dike, which results in higher magma pressure gradients in parallel dikes and lower flux of magma transport.

Optimization of prestressed concrete bridge decks

In this paper a summary of the methods presently used for optimization of prestressed concrete bridge decks is given. By means of linear optimization the sizes of the prestressing cables with a given fixed geometry are obtained. This simple procedure of linear optimization is also used to obtain the ‘best’ cable profile, by combining a series of feasible cable profiles. The results are compared with the ones obtained by other researchers. A step ahead in the field of optimization of prestressed bridge decks is the simultaneous search of the geometry and size of the prestressing cables. A non-linear programming for optimization is used, namely, ‘the steepest gradient method’. The results obtained are compared with the ones computed previously by means of linear programming techniques. Finally, the general problem of structural optimization is considered. This problem consists in finding the sizes and geometries of the prestressing cables as well as the longitudinal variation of the concrete section.

Confiabilidade aplicada ao problema de interação estaca-solo.

Este trabalho busca aplicar técnicas de confiabilidade ao problema de grupo de estacas utilizadas como fundação de estruturas correntes. Para isso, lança-se mão de um modelo tridimensional de interação estaca-solo onde estão presentes o Método dos Elementos de Contorno (MEC) e o método dos Elementos Finitos (MEF) que atuam de forma acoplada. O MEC, com as soluções fundamentais de Mindlin (meio semi-infinito, homogêneo, isotrópico e elástico-linear é utiliza), é utilizado para modelar o solo. Já o MEF é utilizado para modelar as estacas. Definido o modelo de funcionamento estrutural das estacas, parte-se para a aplicação de métodos trazidos da confiabilidade estrutural para avaliação da adequabilidade em relação aos estados limite de serviço e estados limites últimos. Os métodos de confiabilidade utilizados foram o Método de Monte Carlo, o método FOSM (First-Order Second-Moment) e o método FORM (First-Order Reliability Method).

The displacement and strain field of three-dimensional rheologic model of earthquake preparation

Based on the three-dimensional elastic inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii, we developed a rheological inclusion model to study earthquake preparation processes. By using the Corresponding Principle in the theory of rheologic mechanics, we derived the analytic expressions of viscoelastic displacement U(r, t) , V(r, t) and W(r, t), normal strains epsilon(xx) (r, t), epsilon(yy) (r, t) and epsilon(zz) (r, t) and the bulk strain theta (r, t) at an arbitrary point (x, y, z) in three directions of X axis, Y axis and Z axis produced by a three-dimensional inclusion in the semi-infinite rheologic medium defined by the standard linear rheologic model. Subsequent to the spatial-temporal variation of bulk strain being computed on the ground produced by such a spherical rheologic inclusion, interesting results are obtained, suggesting that the bulk strain produced by a hard inclusion change with time according to three stages (alpha, beta, gamma) with different characteristics, similar to that of geodetic deformation observations, but different with the results of a soft inclusion. These theoretical results can be used to explain the characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution, patterns, quadrant-distribution of earthquake precursors, the changeability, spontaneity and complexity of short-term and imminent-term precursors. It offers a theoretical base to build physical models for earthquake precursors and to predict the earthquakes.

Resistance heating of steel conductors of circular cross-section

The object of this thesis is to develop a method for calculating the losses developed in steel conductors of circular cross-section and at temperatures below 100oC, by the direct passage of a sinusoidally alternating current. Three cases are considered. 1. Isolated solid or tubular conductor. 2. Concentric arrangement of tube and solid return conductor. 3. Concentric arrangement of two tubes. These cases find applications in process temperature maintenance of pipelines, resistance heating of bars and design of bus-bars. The problems associated with the non-linearity of steel are examined. Resistance heating of bars and methods of surface heating of pipelines are briefly described. Magnetic-linear solutions based on Maxwell's equations are critically examined and conditions under which various formulae apply investigated. The conditions under which a tube is electrically equivalent to a solid conductor and to a semi-infinite plate are derived. Existing solutions for the calculation of losses in isolated steel conductors of circular cross-section are reviewed, evaluated and compared. Two methods of solution are developed for the three cases considered. The first is based on the magnetic-linear solutions and offers an alternative to the available methods which are not universal. The second solution extends the existing B/H step-function approximation method to small diameter conductors and to tubes in isolation or in a concentric arrangement. A comprehensive experimental investigation is presented for cases 1 and 2 above which confirms the validity of the proposed methods of solution. These are further supported by experimental results reported in the literature. Good agreement is obtained between measured and calculated loss values for surface field strengths beyond the linear part of the d.c. magnetisation characteristic. It is also shown that there is a difference in the electrical behaviour of a small diameter conductor or thin tube under resistance or induction heating conditions.