Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

Sobre a Cornucópia: esboço de retrato de 40 Anos de idade

Reflexão sobre a Cornucópia no ano em que comemorou 40 anos de idade.

Le contrat d’adhésion

Cet article est publié avec l'accord de la Chambre des notaires du Québec.

Inscripción del terrorismo en la agenda gubernamental estadounidense después de los ataques del 11 de septiembre de 2001

Este trabajo se enmarcará en la primera presidencia de George W. Bush y más específicamente entre el 11 de septiembre de 2001 cuando se dio el ataque a las torres gemelas y la invasión a Afganistán el 7 de octubre de este mismo año. En consecuencia lo que se busca con este estudio es demostrar que el gobierno estadounidense se ayuda de herramientas y elementos como la comunicación política, la fijación de agenda y el discurso para la inscripción del concepto terrorismo en la agenda gubernamental. Es así como genera un gran poder de influencia a nivel local logrando que los ciudadanos se tornen hacia el Estado y al mismo tiempo logra apoyo internacional generando el clima perfecto para legitimar la guerra anti-terrorista como una respuesta a los hechos ocurridos.

Thanatos Empresarial

La siguiente investigación se basa en la identificación de las causas, dadas por los factores tanto internos como externos de las empresas colombianas del sector minero y de construcción que se liquidaron durante el periodo de 1999 a 2007. En la ejecución del documento se presentan dos estudios de caso de empresas específicas de ambos sectores, PROMOTORA NORCLARHE LTDA en representación del sector de la construcción y PRODUCTOS DE COBRE COBRECOL S.A. representando al sector minero. Con cada empresa nombrada anteriormente se hace un análisis vertical y horizontal de los 3 años anteriores a su liquidación para identificar los síntomas de las empresas antes de su liquidación, seguido se hace un análisis vertical y horizontal de los 3 años después de su liquidación para identificar los factores que generaron que estas empresas se liquidaran. Así mismo se desarrolla un concepto general de la situación del sector minero y de construcción desde el año 1999 a lo concurrido actualmente para evaluar el perfil de las empresas que se han liquidado en Colombia a nivel general y finalmente se determinan acciones desde nuestro punto de vista según lo establecido en el documento para evitar la liquidación de las empresas del sector minero y de construcción en Colombia.

¿Qué herramientas jurídicas se pueden utilizar para negociar con las Farc?

Reportaje sobre los límites jurídicos entre los cuáles el Gobierno Nacional puede realizar una negociación con la guerrilla de las Farc, para que un proceso de culminación del conflicto y construcción de una paz duradera y estable goce de legitimidad.

Código de ética judicial en Argentina. ¿Una respuesta a las demandas de transparencia de la sociedad?

El proyecto de Código de Ética Judicial, que emerge de la convocatoria de la Corte Suprema de Justicia de la Nación (2004) y promueve una reforma judicial, es analizado desde un diagnóstico que enfatiza el carácter cultural de causas sistémicas de la crisis político-económica de diciembre 2001 en Argentina, donde la matriz institucional y los mecanismos de selección/financiamiento de los partidos políticos destacan la presencia de “clientelismo” y “corrupción”, determinando –con la “anomia social”– la llamada “corrupción gris”. Tales variables definen un patrón cultural de “labilidad” en los límites entre lo permitido-no permitido y lo ético-no ético.Desde los años noventa, la tendencia a judicializar el conflicto político, y una Magistratura con ausencia de debate interno y de activismo judicial, tornaron oportuno analizarla desde cinco ejes temáticos: 1) el debate orgánico dado en la Magistratura; 2) el marco general legislativo; 3) la Magistratura como exponente de valores culturales; 4) la transferencia de responsabilidades del ámbito político al judicial; 5) la mediatización de la labor del juez.De las conclusiones deviene crucial este enfoque que indaga las características de esta herramienta que la propia corporación judicial le propone a la sociedad: el Código de Ética Judicial.-----The Code of Judicial Ethics bill, which has emerged from the Argentine Supreme Court call in 2004 and which promotes a judicial reform, will be analized here from a point of view emphasizing the cultural nature of the general cause of the political and financial crisis that took place in December 2001 in Argentina, where the institutional matrix and the political parties’ mechanisms for selecting candidates and raising funds for campaign financing show that there exists a kind of ‘clientism’ and ‘corruption’, which brings about –within a state of ‘social anomy’– the so-called ‘grey corruption.’ These variables define a cultural pattern which is characterized by a ‘general state of uncertainty’ when it comes to deciding what is allowed or not allowed, and what is ethical or unethical.The tendency present since the nineties to judicialize the political conflict, together with a judiciary where there is neither internal debate nor judicial activism, have both made it appropriate to analize this matter from five points of discussion: (1) the internal debate in the judiciary; (2) the general legislative framework; (3) the judiciary as an exponent of cultural values; (4) the handing over of responsibilities from the political sphere to the judicial one; and (5) the media interfering with the judge’s work.From the resultant conclusions, we will infer that this approach becomes crucial, an approach that looks into the features of this tool that the judiciary itself proposes to the society: the Code of Judicial Ethics.

La venganza como prototipo legal en la Ilíada

Que Homero haya compuesto su poema para "recomendar la virtud y la justicia" , como sugirió Anaxágoras, nos parece hoy una sentencia imprudente y desmedida. Por boca de Sócrates dijo Platón, aparentemente con mejores fundamentos, que la épica trata de la "discrepancia de parecer entre lo justo y lo injusto" y de las "batallas y muertes que tuvieron lugar entre los aqueos y los troyanos precisamente por esta discrepancia". … ¿Cómo considerar la reacción del héroe? ¿Es su venganza, en efecto, excesiva? ¿Bajo qué parámetros debe ser analizada y, si es el caso, juzgada? ¿Hay justicia en la venganza de Aquiles?

La cooperación internacional como instrumento para la construcción de paz en Colombia. Estudio de caso del proyecto “Fortalecimiento institucional para la atención a las víctimas del conflicto (FORVIC)” (2009-2014)

El presente estudio de caso pretende analizar los alcances de la cooperación internacional en materia de justicia transicional y construcción de paz tomando en consideración un proyecto de cooperación internacional emblemático denominado Fortalecimiento Institucional para la Atención a las Víctimas del Conflicto o FORVIC. Para conseguir esto, se analizarán primero los efectos generados por el Proyecto FORVIC en materia de fortalecimiento del Estado de Derecho y lucha contra la impunidad en Colombia, y a partir de los hallazgos se constituirán y se propondrán una serie de condiciones sobre las que puede pensarse la cooperación internacional como un instrumento genuino para la construcción de paz en Colombia.

El Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas: ¿dónde está y hacia dónde va? (Tema Central)

Desde una perspectiva que pone énfasis en el logro de resultados y sus obstáculos, este artículo analiza la evolución del proceso del ALCA. Para ello, Bouzas y Svarzman dividen el análisis en cuatro momentos: l. Desde la Primera Cumbre Presidencial (Miami, 1994) hasta la segunda (Santiago, 1998).2. El período que se inicia y termina entre las reuniones ministeriales de San José y Toronto. 3. Desde la reunión de Toronto hasta el encuentro ministerial de Buenos Aires y la Tercera Cumbre Presidencial de Quebec. 4. Y un último momento que empezó en Quebec y que se cerrará con la culminación de las negociaciones en el año 2005.

Texture, realism, performance: exploring the intersection of transtexts and the contemporary sitcom

Contemporary US sitcom is at an interesting crossroads: it has received an increasing amount of scholarly attention (e.g. Mills 2009; Butler 2010; Newman and Levine 2012; Vermeulen and Whitfield 2013), which largely understands it as shifting towards the aesthetically and narratively complex. At the same time, in the post-broadcasting era, US networks are particularly struggling for their audience share. With the days of blockbuster successes like Must See TV’s Friends (NBC 1994-2004) a distant dream, recent US sitcoms are instead turning towards smaller, engaged audiences. Here, a cult sensibility of intertextual in-jokes, temporal and narrational experimentation (e.g. flashbacks and alternate realities) and self-reflexive performance styles have marked shows including Community (NBC 2009-2015), How I Met Your Mother (CBS 2005-2014), New Girl (Fox 2011-present) and 30 Rock (NBC 2006-2013). However, not much critical attention has so far been paid to how these developments in textual sensibility in contemporary US sitcom may be influenced by, and influencing, the use of transmedia storytelling practices, an increasingly significant industrial concern and rising scholarly field of enquiry (e.g. Jenkins 2006; Mittell 2015; Richards 2010; Scott 2010; Jenkins, Ford and Green 2013). This chapter investigates this mutual influence between sitcom and transmedia by taking as its case studies two network shows that encourage invested viewership through their use of transtexts, namely How I Met Your Mother (hereafter HIMHM) and New Girl (hereafter NG). As such, it will pay particular attention to the most transtextually visible character/actor from each show: HIMYM’s Barney Stinson, played by Neil Patrick Harris, and NG’s Schmidt, played by Max Greenfield. This chapter argues that these sitcoms do not simply have their particular textual sensibility and also (happen to) engage with transmedia practices, but that the two are mutually informing and defining. This chapter explores the relationships and interplay between sitcom aesthetics, narratives and transmedia storytelling (or industrial transtexts), focusing on the use of multiple delivery channels in order to disperse “integral elements of a fiction” (Jenkins, 2006 95-6), by official entities such as the broadcasting channels. The chapter pays due attention to the specific production contexts of both shows and how these inform their approaches to transtexts. This chapter’s conceptual framework will be particularly concerned with how issues of texture, the reality envelope and accepted imaginative realism, as well as performance and the actor’s input inform and illuminate contemporary sitcoms and transtexts, and will be the first scholarly research to do so. It will seek out points of connections between two (thus far) separate strands of scholarship and will move discussions on transtexts beyond the usual genre studied (i.e. science-fiction and fantasy), as well as make a contribution to the growing scholarship on contemporary sitcom by approaching it from a new critical angle. On the basis that transmedia scholarship stands to benefit from widening its customary genre choice (i.e. telefantasy) for its case studies and from making more use of in-depth close analysis in its engagement with transtexts, the chapter argues that notions of texture, accepted imaginative realism and the reality envelope, as well as performance and the actor’s input deserve to be paid more attention to within transtext-related scholarship.

Prevention av stora perinealbristningar vid Sveriges förlossningsavdelningar : En kartläggningsstudie

Bakgrund: I Sverige ökade prevalensen av rupturer grad IV från 2,6% till 4,2% mellan åren 1994-2004. Årligen är det cirka tretusen kvinnor som drabbas av bristningar av grad III och IV i Sverige. Det är en stor spridning mellan Sveriges olika förlossningsavdelningar.Syfte: Syftet var att beskriva åtgärder för prevention av perinealbristningar av grad III och grad IV vid normal förlossning på samtliga förlossningsavdelningar i Sverige.Metod: Deskriptiv kartläggningsstudie med induktiv ansats. Det är en nationell studie som riktar sig till Sveriges alla förlossningsavdelningar. Endast perinealbristning av grad III och grad IV berördes.Resultat: Totalt deltog 38 av 47 (81%) av Sveriges förlossningsavdelningar i studien. Respondenterna var chefsbarnmorskor, avdelningschefer och enhetschefer. Av deltagande förlossningsavdelningar var det 12 (32%) som har någon form av vårdprogram för perinealskydd, många svarar att barnmorskorna utför perinealskydd på rutin. Dock var det inte vedertaget att alltid hålla perinealskydd vid 8% av avdelningarna. 18 avdelningar svarade JA på frågan om särskilda handgrepp användes och då uppgavs Ritgens handgrepp, det norska handgreppet och det finska handgreppet. 74 % använder sig av även andra metoder än handgrepp, framför allt värme (varma handdukar, dukar, handskar, kompresser) som hålls över perineum. Många tog upp vikten av god kommunikation och att hjälpa kvinnan att krysta i rätt tid. Förlossningsställningar som många använde sig av var sidoläge och knästående, medan andra hävdade att knästående ej användes pågrund av den ökande risken för bristningar. 71% av deltagande avdelningar får kontinuerlig utbildning och då nämndes främst workshops och utbildningsdagar.Slutsats: Metoder för att skydda perineum varierar mellan förlossningsavdelningarna i Sverige. På flera av Sveriges förlossningsavdelningar är det inte vedertaget att alltid använda perinealskydd vid normal förlossning. Vad som orsakar detta tros vara att en del barnmorskor, under utbildningen, fått lära sig att inte hålla perinealskydd.Klinisk implikation: Nationella rikitlinjer angående perinealskydd skulle vara av värde för att kunna erbjuda kvinnan vård på samma villkor landet över. Det är av stor vikt att den förlösande barnmorskan är uppmärksam på riskfaktorerna.

Aplicação de modelos de avaliação por múltiplos no Brasil

Com base na literatura internacional, testa-se o desempenho de alguns Drivers de Valor comumente utilizados para avaliação de empresas pelos práticos em finanças através de modelos de regressão simples do tipo cross-section que estimam os Múltiplos de Mercado (?'s dos modelos). Utilizando dados de empresas listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo-Bovespa, diagnostica-se o comportamento dos diversos múltiplos no decorrer do período entre 1994-2004, atentando-se também para as particularidades das atividades desempenhadas pelas empresas da amostra (e seus possíveis impactos no desempenho de cada Driver de Valor) através de uma subseqüente análise com a separação das empresas da amostra em setores. Extrapolando os padrões de avaliação por múltiplos simples usados pelos analistas de empresas das principais instituições financeiras presentes no Brasil, verifica-se que a introdução de intercepto na formulação tradicional não oferece resultados satisfatórios na redução dos erros de apreçamento. Os resultados encontrados podem não ser genericamente representativos, dada a limitada disponibilidade de informações e as restrições impostas na obtenção da base de dados.

A aproximação entre educação escolar e trabalho: a experiência da Casa do Menor Trabalhador

It aims to consider the possible relationship between formal school education and work, from the experience of the State School House of the Minor Worker CMT of Natal-RN in this first decade of the 21st century. In this institution, children and adolescents are enrolled in the Fundamental Teaching sponsored by the State Public System studying the regular curriculum contents defined for this level of teaching, and in the opposite shift they take part in career workshops which are kept by members of a religious congregation. CMT has had as its object, since its foundation, to take children and adolescents from the streets and to provide them with a full time education associating basic education and training/qualification for the job market. In our research, we tried to learn a little bit of the expectations, concerns and knowledge of the young participants of two workshops: carpentry and bakery, so that we could gain sufficient understanding of the learning process of these youths, while still keeping an approximation with the reality of the aforementioned subjects. It was possible for us to conduct a description of the contexts and of characteristics of the subjects which make up CMT, capturing concrete aspects and aspects of the thoughts of students, teachers, instructors and coordinators. The main point of our research was: how does the approximation between formal school education and work take place in the House of the Minor Worker? To search for possible answers we have made use of basic techniques for the data construction - questionnaire, observation, conversation groups, assessment drills which allowed an approximation and a good dialogue with the participants. We also discussed the job world in the context of the capitalist exploration, from the contributions of Mèszáros (2005), Frigotto (1989); (1993); (1999); (2002); Ferretti (1994); (2004); Kuenzer (1989); (1997), in order to understand the skills demanded of the worker and the necessity of an education which allows the professional qualification of youths eager to enter the job market, through the first job. In this perspective, the study that we have systematized here aims to show the relevance of an education which manages to take a firm and conscientious stand in connection with the hegemonic capitalist project and to provide for a humane, ethical, responsible, critical and civic background

"Eu pensei que ia sair daqui falando inglês": um estudo sistêmico-funcional sobre papéis sociais atribuídos por alunos de um curso de Letras/Inglês

Research in the area of teacher training in English as a Foreign Language (CELANI, 2003, 2004, 2010; PAIVA, 2000, 2003, 2005; VIEIRA-ABRAHÃO, 2010) articulates the complexity of beginning teachers classroom contexts aligned with teaching language as a social and professional practice of the teacher in training. To better understand this relationship, the present study is based on a corpus of transcribed interviews and questionnaires applied to 28 undergraduate students majoring in Letters/English emphasis, at a public university located in the interior of the Western Amazon region, soliciting their opinions about the reforms made in the curriculum of this Major. Interviews and questionnaires were used as data collection instruments to trace a profile of the students organized in Group 1, with freshmen and sophomore undergraduates who are following the 2009 curriculum, and Group 2, with junior and senior undergraduates who are following the 2006 curriculum. The objectives are to identify, to characterize and to analyze the types of pronouns, roles and social actors represented in the opinions of these students in relation to their teacher training curriculum. The theoretical support focuses on the challenge of historical and contemporary routes from English teachers initial education programs (MAGALHÃES; LIBERALLI, 2009; PAVAN; SILVA, 2010; ALVAREZ, 2010; VIANA, 2011; PAVAN, 2012). Our theoretical perspective is based on the Systemic Functional Grammar of Halliday (1994), Halliday and Hasan (1989), Halliday and Matthiessen (2004), Eggins (1994; 2004) and Thompson (2004). We focus on the concept of the Interpersonal meaning, specifically regarding the roles articulated in the studies by Delu (1991), Thompson and Thetela (1995), and in the Portuguese language such as Ramos (1997), Silva (2006) and Cabral (2009). Moreover, we ascribe van Leeuwen s (1997; 2003) theory of Representation of Social Actors as a theoretical framework in order to identify the sociological aspect of social actors represented in the students discourse. Within this scenario, the analysis unfolds on three levels: grammatical (pronouns), semantic (roles), and discursive (social actors). For the analysis of interpersonal realizations present in the students opinions, we use the computational program WordSmith Tools (SCOTT, 2010) and its applications Wordlist and Concord to quantify the occurrences of the pronouns I, You and They, which characterize the roles and social actors of the corpus. The results show that the students assigned the following roles to themselves: (i) apprentice to express their initial process of English language learning; (ii) freshman to reveal their choice of Major in Letters/English emphasis; (iii) future teacher to relate their expectations towards a practicing professional. To assign the roles to professors in the major, the students used the metaphor of modality (I think) to indicate the relationship of teacher training, while they are in the role of a student and as a future teacher. From these evidences the representation of the students as social actors emerges in roles such as: (i) active roles; (ii) passive roles and (iii) personalized roles. The social actors represented in the opinions of the students reflect the inclusion of these roles assigned to the actions expressed about their experiences and expectations derived from their teacher training classroom