Impact of a board-game approach on current smokers: a randomized controlled trial.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The main objective of our study was to assess the impact of a board game on smoking status and smoking-related variables in current smokers. To accomplish this objective, we conducted a randomized controlled trial comparing the game group with a psychoeducation group and a waiting-list control group. METHODS: The following measures were performed at participant inclusion, as well as after a 2-week and a 3-month follow-up period: "Attitudes Towards Smoking Scale" (ATS-18), "Smoking Self-Efficacy Questionnaire" (SEQ-12), "Attitudes Towards Nicotine Replacement Therapy" scale (ANRT-12), number of cigarettes smoked per day, stages of change, quit attempts, and smoking status. Furthermore, participants were assessed for concurrent psychiatric disorders and for the severity of nicotine dependence with the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND). RESULTS: A time × group effect was observed for subscales of the ANRT-12, ATS-18 and SEQ-12, as well as for the number of cigarettes smoked per day. At three months follow-up, compared to the participants allocated to the waiting list group, those on Pick-Klop group were less likely to remain smoker.Outcomes at 3 months were not predicted by gender, age, FTND, stage of change, or psychiatric disorders at inclusion. CONCLUSIONS: The board game seems to be a good option for smokers. The game led to improvements in variables known to predict quitting in smokers. Furthermore, it increased smoking-cessation rates at 3-months follow-up. The game is also an interesting alternative for smokers in the precontemplation stage.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Estequiometria i metabolòmica d'Alopecurus pratensis i Holcus lanatus en condicions de sequera

La variabilitat de l’estequiometria elemental dels organismes a causa de l’ontogènia i dels canvis en les condicions ambientals està relacionada amb la variabilitat metabolòmica. Això és degut a que els elements operen majoritàriament com a parts de compostos moleculars. Així doncs, la hipòtesi realitzada per Rivas-Ubach et al., (2012), la qual postula que els estudis estequiomètrics i metabolòmics d’un conjunt d’espècies vegetals exposades a condicions ambientals diferents han de mostrar la flexibilitat que posseeix un organisme a l’hora de modular la seva estequiometria i el seu metaboloma per tal de mantenir la forma òptima sota condicions variants, esdevé la base que sustenta l’experiment EVENT II. A partir de l’estudi de les relacions estequiomètriques, -principalment C:N:P- i del metabolisme d’Alopecurus pratensis i Holcus lanatus en situacions simulades de sequera, s’han obtingut resultats que evidencien una clara diferenciació a nivell d’espècie, de part de la planta i de tractament. El metabolisme i l’estequiometria diferencial que presenten ambdues gramínies dóna suport a la hipòtesi del nínxol biogeoquímic. A nivell de parts de la planta, s’observa un clar augment de la relació C:nutrients a la part aèria, mentre que a les arrels, aquesta relació disminueix. La part aèria doncs, necessita més C per invertir en funcions estructurals, mentre que l’elevada concentració de nutrients i metabòlits a les arrels donen indicis de la presència de mecanismes osmòtics per a facilitar l’entrada d’aigua, i de creixement, per a la recerca de noves fonts d’aigua, observant-se una disminució de la relació part aèria:arrels. Un altre factor que demostra aquest creixement radicular són les baixes relacions N:P trobades, fet que dóna suport a la hipòtesi de la velocitat de creixement.

Estimating the Price and Demand Development of Some Paperboard Grades

Työn tavoitteena oli luoda malli, jonka avulla voitaisiin ennustaa kartonkituotteiden hinnan ja kysynnän kehitystä. Työssä kerättiin aluksi tietoa kartonkimarkkinoista haastattelujen ja tilastotietojen avulla. Näiden perusteella luotiin malli, joka kuvaa kartonkimarkkinoiden ja -teollisuuden rakennetta. Erityisesti kiinnitettiin huomiota asiakkaiden tilauskäyttäytymiseen, tuotannonohjaukseen sekä hinnan muodostumiseen. Työssä käytettiin ennustemenetelmänä systeemidynamiikkaa. Oleellista oli löytää systeemissä esiintyvät tärkeimmät takaisinkytkennät ja systeemin avainmuuttujat. Kun kaikille mallin muuttujille oli määritetty yhtälöt ja vakioille annettu arvot, voitiin mallia simuloida, ja saada ennusteet halutuille muuttujille. Työssä esitettiin ennusteet kartonkimarkkinoiden tärkeimmille parametreille kahden vuoden päähän. Työssä tarkasteltiin myös, miten muutokset mallin käyttäytymistä säätelevissä muuttujissa vaikuttavat tuloksiin. Jotta pystyttäisiin paremmin selvittämään koko kartonkiteollisuuden dynamiikka, lisätutkimusta tarvittaisiin vielä eri kartonkilajien substituutiomahdollisuuksista ja hintojen riippuvuuksista. Mielenkiintoista olisi myös tietää, miten tuotannon käyttöasteiden muutokset ja hinnan vaihtelut vaikuttavat liiketoiminnan kannattavuuteen valmistajien näkökulmasta.

Impact of a 2-year intervention program on cardiometabolic profile according to the number of goals achieved

We investigated the impact of lifestyle goal achievement on cardiovascular risk factors after a 2-year behavioral intervention program applied to 394 adults (113 with diabetes, mean age 60.2 ± 11.4 years, 56% women) and targeting four goals: ≥5% weight loss; ≥150 min/week physical activities; <10% saturated fat intake/day; ≥400 g fruit and vegetable intake/day. Baseline characteristics and changes in variables after intervention among the four categories of number of goals achieved (none, 1, 2, and ≥3) were compared by independent ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis test. Individuals without diabetes achieving a higher number of goals were more likely to be older (3 or 4 goals: 61.8 ± 12.6 years vs none: 53.3 ± 10.3 years, P < 0.05) and to have a lower mean BMI (3 or 4 goals: 21.7 ± 2.6 kg/m² vs none: 29.0 ± 4.8 kg/m², P < 0.05), diastolic blood pressure (3 or 4 goals: 77.3 ± 2.1 mmHg vs none: 85.4 ± 9.6 mmHg, P < 0.05), triglyceride (3 or 4 goals: 116.1 ± 95.1 mg/dL vs none: 144.8 ± 65.5 mg/dL, P < 0.05) and insulin levels (3 or 4 goals: 3.6 ± 2.4 μU/L vs none: 5.7 ± 4.0 μU/L, P < 0.05) than those achieving fewer goals. The absolute changes in cardiovascular risk factors tended to be more pronounced with increasing number of goals achieved in individuals without diabetes. The intervention had a beneficial impact on the cardiometabolic profile of individuals with normal or altered glucose metabolism. The number of goals achieved in this lifestyle intervention was associated with the magnitude of improvement of cardiovascular risk factors in individuals without diabetes. Participants with a better cardiometabolic profile seemed to be more likely to have a healthy lifestyle.

Efectos de la ventilación mecánica con heliox en niños y adolescentes con patología bronquial obstructiva

Evaluar si el Heliox reduce la resistencia en la vía aérea en niños y adolescentes con patología bronquial obstructiva que requieren ventilación mecánica. Materiales y Métodos: Estudio prospectivo observacional descriptivo en niños y adolescentes con patología bronquial obstructiva y ventilación mecánica con Fi02 ≤ 0,5. Medición de variables: resistencia, presión pico, presión media de la vía aérea, presión meseta, volumen corriente, autoPEEP, distensibilidad, PetCO2, ventilación de espacio muerto antes de inicio de heliox y a los 30 minutos, 2, 4, 6, 12, 18 y 24 horas y diariamente hasta suspenderlo por extubación o FiO2 > 0,5. Resultados: Resultados parciales, incluyó 9 pacientes encontrando descenso significativo de resistencia espiratoria a los 30 minutos (51,2 vs 32,3; p=0,0008 ), 2 horas ( 51,2 vs 33,4; p=0,0019) y 4 horas (51,2 vs 30,7; p=0,0012) así como de la resistencia inspiratoria a la hora 2 (48,6 vs 36,2; p = 0,013) y hora 4 (48,6 vs 30 ; p=0,004). Se observó tendencia al descenso de la PetCO2 que no fue significativa (52,3 vs 34,3: p=0,06). No se evidenció cambios en las variables; autoPEEP, presión pico, presión media de la vía aérea, distensibilidad, ventilación de espacio muerto, presión meseta y volumen corriente antes y después del inicio del Heliox. Conclusión: La ventilación mecánica con Heliox en niños con patología bronquial obstructiva parece ser que reduce de manera significativa la resistencia de la vía aérea, con tendencia al descenso de la PetC02. Se necesitan estudios prospectivos al menos observacionales analíticos que corroboren estos hallazgos.

Uncertainty and feasibility studies: an Italian case study

Uncertainty affects all aspects of the property market but one area where the impact of uncertainty is particularly significant is within feasibility analyses. Any development is impacted by differences between market conditions at the conception of the project and the market realities at the time of completion. The feasibility study needs to address the possible outcomes based on an understanding of the current market. This requires the appraiser to forecast the most likely outcome relating to the sale price of the completed development, the construction costs and the timing of both. It also requires the appraiser to understand the impact of finance on the project. All these issues are time sensitive and analysis needs to be undertaken to show the impact of time to the viability of the project. The future is uncertain and a full feasibility analysis should be able to model the upside and downside risk pertaining to a range of possible outcomes. Feasibility studies are extensively used in Italy to determine land value but they tend to be single point analysis based upon a single set of “likely” inputs. In this paper we look at the practical impact of uncertainty in variables using a simulation model (Crystal Ball ©) with an actual case study of an urban redevelopment plan for an Italian Municipality. This allows the appraiser to address the issues of uncertainty involved and thus provide the decision maker with a better understanding of the risk of development. This technique is then refined using a “two-dimensional technique” to distinguish between “uncertainty” and “variability” and thus create a more robust model.

Bayesian analysis for a skew extension of the multivariate null intercept measurement error model

Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leao Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in -variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763-771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161-178].

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measurement error models with a general class of error distribution

In general, the normal distribution is assumed for the surrogate of the true covariates in the classical error model. This paper considers a class of distributions, which includes the normal one, for the variables subject to error. An estimation approach yielding consistent estimators is developed and simulation studies reported.

Dominância fiscal e suas implicações sobre a política monetária no Brasil: uma análise do período 1999 - 2005

O grau de liberdade da política monetária é uma questão muito relevante em um país que decide adotar um regime de metas inflacionárias e câmbio flutuante. Caso a autoridade monetária desse país não tenha liberdade para atuar, o regime de metas pode ser ineficiente. Em especial, caso esse país se encontre numa situação de Dominância Fiscal, a política monetária pode ter efeitos perversos sobre a relação dívida/PIB, aumentando seu prêmio de risco soberano e causando um aumento na probabilidade de default implícita em seus títulos soberanos. O intuito desse trabalho é realizar o teste de dominância a partir de um modelo proposto por Olivier Blanchard em 2004, e testar primeiro se o país se encontrava em dominância em 2002, 2003 e depois analisar o resultado desse modelo até novembro de 2005. Algumas modificações de variáveis utilizadas, medidas de risco e taxa de juros são propostas e é acrescido ao modelo um teste de estabilidade de coeficientes e a incerteza causada no período eleitoral em 2002. Além disso, é analisada a reação do Banco Central no período, para identificar se sua reação compartilhava da visão de dominância que o modelo original apresentava ou não. A conclusão é que o Brasil, mesmo após as alterações sugeridas, ainda se encontra numa situação de dominância fiscal segundo a descrição do modelo. Porém, o resultado final é cerca de 20% do originalmente observado em 2004, resultando em uma liberdade de atuação significativamente maior para a autoridade monetária no Brasil em 2002 e 2003. O Banco Central parece ter reagido a mudanças de expectativa de inflação e não parecia compartilhar um diagnóstico de dominância fiscal ao longo de 2002. As eleições foram significativas para explicar aumento da probabilidade de default, mas não alteram significativamente o resultado do teste após as mudanças de variáveis. A medida de risco proposta resulta em um modelo melhor para medir dominância no Brasil. A mensagem final é que o Brasil ainda precisa se preocupar com as restrições fiscais, mas elas são menores que o modelo original propunha.

Estudo analítico da estrutura organizacional do Senado Federal no ano 2001

o presente trabalho pretende responder à questão da adequação ou não da atual estrutura organizacional do Senado Federal frente às novas exigências decorrentes da promulgação da Constituição de 1988 e da mudança de parâmetros e valores trazida pelo paradigma emergente na Administração Pública a partir de 1990. O estudo se propõe a correlacionar de modo analítico quais são as funções de uma Casa legislativa com o órgão técnico responsável por sua realização, priorizando valores quanto ao atendimento do interesse público e atendendo ao cumprimento dos dispositivos constitucionais previstos nos artigos 48, 49, 50 e 52 da Carta Magna. A análise feita transporta conceitos e ferramentas desenvolvidos pelos teóricos da Administração para a prática da instituição, viabilizando dados e disponibilizando informações atualizadas com o objetivo de chamar a atenção para o problema e ampliar o seu espectro.

Avaliação da eficácia de um programa de "Escola de Coluna" para lombalgia crônica inespecífica

The Back School has been used to prevent and to treat back pain since 1969, however its effectiveness still is controversy in literature. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a program of "Back School" in patients with nonspecific chronic low back pain, directed by rheumatologists and orthopedic doctors to Physiotherapy School Clinic of Universidade Potiguar (UnP) Natal/RN- Brazil, in period of May/2002 to December/2003. Seventy patients, with age varying from 18 to 60 years, were randomized in two groups: Experimental group (group A) with 34 patients, which was subdivided in groups with 6 to 8 components. This group participated of a theoretician and practical program of Back School with 4 lessons, one day per week, with 60 minutes of duration; to the Control group (group B), with 36 patients, was explained that the group should stay four months in a waiting list . Both groups, had been carried through three evaluations, by a blind, to patient group, independent observer: initial evaluation, after four and sixteen weeks. The following variables were analyzed: pain intensity, measured by analog visual scale (AVS), functional disability, measured by disability questionnaire of Roland and Morris and the spinal mobility measured by Schöber s method. In statistical analysis it was used variance analysis ANOVA, the test of Newman-Keuls multiple comparations, and the Pearson correlation coefficient, with significance level p<0.05. Thirteen patients (18,6%) didn t complete the evaluations, (5 from experimental group and 8 from control group). At last, 57 patients were studied, (29 from Experimental group and 28 from Control group), it was observed a significant statistical improve just for Experimental group in variables pain intensity (p=0,0001), functional disability

Produtividade de pessegueiros 'Aurora-1' em diferentes espaçamentos e métodos de propagação do porta-enxerto 'Okinawa'

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparação e mobilidade, equilíbrio corporal e desempenho muscular segundo a auto-eficácia para quedas em idosas

The aging process modifies various systems in the body, leading to changes in mobility, balance and muscle strength. This can cause a drop in the elderly, or not changing the perceived self-efficacy in preventing falls. Objective: To compare the mobility, body balance and muscle performance according to self-efficacy for falls in community-dwelling elderly. Methods: A cross-sectional comparative study with 63 older (65-80 years) community. Were evaluated for identification data and sociodemographic, cognitive screening using the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), effective for the fall of Falls Efficacy Scale International Brazil (FES-I-BRAZIL), Mobility through the Timed Up and Go Test , the balance Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the Modified Clinical Test tests of Sensory Interaction on Balance (mCTSIB), tandem walk (TW) and Sit to Stand (STS) of the Balance Master® System. Finally, muscle performance by using isokinetic dynamometry. Statistical analysis was performed Student t test for comparison between groups, with p value ≤ 0.05. Results: Comparing the elderly with low-efficacy for falls with high-efficacy for falls, we found significant differences only for the variable Timed Up and Go Test (p = 0.04). With regard to data on balance tests were significant differences in the speed of oscillation firm surface eyes open modified Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction on Test of Balance (p = 0.01). Variables to isokinetic dynamometry were no significant differences in movement knee extension, as regards the variables peak torque (p = 0.04) and power (p = 0.03). Conclusion: The results suggest that, compared to older community with low-and high-efficacy for falls, we observed differences in variables related to mobility, balance and muscle function