A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium

Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX index into a permanent and a stationary component. We establish that the inversion of the CDX term premium is induced by sudden changes in the unobserved stationary component, which represents the evolution of the fundamentals underpinning the probability of default in the economy. We find evidence that the monetary policy response from the Fed during the crisis period was effective in reducing the volatility of the term premium. We also show that equity returns make a substantial contribution to the term premium over the entire sample period.

How rare is too rare to harvest? Management challenges posed by timber species occurring at low densities in the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical forests are characterized by diverse assemblages of plant and animal species compared to temperate forests. Corollary to this general rule is that most tree species, whether valued for timber or not, occur at low densities (<1 adult tree ha(-1)) or may be locally rare. In the Brazilian Amazon, many of the most highly valued timber species occur at extremely low densities yet are intensively harvested with little regard for impacts on population structures and dynamics. These include big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla), ipe (Tabebuia serratifolia and Tabebuia impetiginosa), jatoba (Hymenaea courbaril), and freijo cinza (Cordia goeldiana). Brazilian forest regulations prohibit harvests of species that meet the legal definition of rare - fewer than three trees per 100 ha - but treat all species populations exceeding this density threshold equally. In this paper we simulate logging impacts on a group of timber species occurring at low densities that are widely distributed across eastern and southern Amazonia, based on field data collected at four research sites since 1997, asking: under current Brazilian forest legislation, what are the prospects for second harvests on 30-year cutting cycles given observed population structures, growth, and mortality rates? Ecologically `rare` species constitute majorities in commercial species assemblages in all but one of the seven large-scale inventories we analyzed from sites spanning the Amazon (range 49-100% of total commercial species). Although densities of only six of 37 study species populations met the Brazilian legal definition of a rare species, timber stocks of five of the six timber species declined substantially at all sites between first and second harvests in simulations based on legally allowable harvest intensities. Reducing species-level harvest intensity by increasing minimum felling diameters or increasing seed tree retention levels improved prospects for second harvests of those populations with a relatively high proportion of submerchantable stems, but did not dramatically improve projections for populations with relatively flat diameter distributions. We argue that restrictions on logging very low-density timber tree populations, such as the current Brazilian standard, provide inadequate minimum protection for vulnerable species. Population declines, even if reduced-impact logging (RIL) is eventually adopted uniformly, can be anticipated for a large pool of high-value timber species unless harvest intensities are adapted to timber species population ecology, and silvicultural treatments are adopted to remedy poor natural stocking in logged stands. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Returns to farm-level soil conservation on tropical steep slopes: The case of the Eritrean highlands

This study conducts an economic analysis of investment in simple soil conservation technologies in the highlands of Eritrea. The data used in the analysis were obtained from a farm survey and supplemented with data from secondary sources. Risk analysis techniques are used to take account of the uncertainties regarding the relationship between soil erosion and crop yield. The financial analysis reveals negative net present values (NPVs) and internal rates of return (IRRs) below 12 per cent for various slope categories. On the other hand, the economic analysis returns positive NPVs and IRRs of over 20 per cent. The results clearly indicate that in-vestment in soil conservation technology may not be a viable short-term proposition from the farmer's point of view and yet the net social benefits are positive. There is a strong case for government to provide incentives for soil conservation in view of the economic benefits.

Performance of european socially responsible funds during market crises: evidence from France

This paper investigates the performance, investment styles andmanagerial abilities of French socially responsible investment (SRI) funds investing in Europe during crisis and non-crisis periods. Our results show that SRI funds significantly underperformcharacteristics-matched conventional funds during non-crisis periods, but match the performance of their peers duringmarket downturns. The underperformance of SRI funds during good economic states is driven by funds that use negative screens, since funds that use only positive screens performsimilarly to conventional funds across differentmarket conditions. SRI and conventional funds showsignificant differences in risk exposures during non-crisis periods but exhibit much more similar investment styles during crises. Furthermore,we find little evidence of significant differences inmanagerial abilities during bad economic states. Yet, during non-crisis periods, SRI and conventional fund managers exhibit significantly different style-timing abilities and these differences are also related to screening strategies.

Economic evaluation of occupational safety preventive measures in a hospital

BACKGROUND: When an organization performs an integrated analysis of risks through its Occupational Health and Safety Management System, several steps are suggested to address the implications of the identified risks. Namely, the organization should make a detailed analysis of the monetary impact for the organization of each of the preventive measures considered. However, it is also important to perform an analysis of the impact of each measure on society (externalities). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to present a case study related to the application of the proposed economic evaluation methodology. METHODS: An analysis of the work accidents in a hospital has been made. Three of the major types of accidents have been selected: needle stings, falls and excessive strain. Following the risk assessment, some preventive measures have been designed. Subsequently, the Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C) of these measures has been calculated, both in financial terms (from the organization’s perspective) and in economic terms (including the benefits for the worker and for the Society). RESULTS: While the financial ratio is only advantageous in some cases, when the externalities are taken into account, the B/C ratio increases significantly. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to consider external benefits to make decisions concerning the implementation of preventive measures in Occupational Health and Safety projects

Stability, sustainability and viability of the Portuguese Football Federation

Purpose: to evaluate and study the viability, stability and the ability of the Portuguese Football Federation (PFF) to generate sustained profits. Methodology: Data were collected based on the Audit Reports of the institution during 2012-2014 and a financial and economic analysis was performed in order to establish some indicators of solvability, profitability and financial balance. Findings: It exists a lack of consistency in managing the profits obtained. We can also suggest that should be given a greater interest to the management of their own intangible assets, as brand management, for example. Practical implications: By making known to leaders and managers of this type of institutions that exists a link between participation in international championships and increase of their profitability may encourage them to better managing these cash inputs in order to decrease the dependence of Governmental financing. We also found that the management of their own intangible assets, as brand management, for example, could probably add more positive financial results.

THE ROLE OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE IN VALUATION ACCURACY AND THE TIME HORIZON

ABSTRACT Based on the assumption that earnings persistence has implications for both financial analysis and compensation contracts, the aim of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings persistence assuming that (i) more persistent earnings are likely to be a better input to valuation models and (ii) more persistent earnings are likely to serve as a proxy for long-term market and managerial orientation. The analysis is based on Brazilian listed firms from 1995 to 2013, and while we document strong support for the relevance of earnings persistence in financial analysis and valuation, we fail to document a significant relationship between earnings persistence and long-term value orientation. These results are sensitive to different specifications, and additional results suggest that firms' idiosyncratic risk (total risk) is relevant to explain the focus on short-term outcomes (short-termism) across firms. The main contribution of this paper is to offer empirical evidence for the relevance of accounting numbers in both valuation and contractual theories in an emergent market.

NCRF 14 – concentrações de atividades empresariais e os impactos da sua aplicação: estudo de caso no setor empresarial

Projeto apresentado obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientada pela Professora Doutora Alcina Augusta Sena Dias

Plano de negócios para empresa de iluminação de emergência

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Análise da viabilidade da utilização de colectores solares

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecância

Controlo e gestão da rede de postos de abastecimento : o caso da J.H. Ornelas & Suc., Lda.

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, 15 de Dezembro de 2015, Universidade dos Açores.

Derivados sobre taxas de juro: estudo de caso

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Demonstração dos fluxos de caixa: a análise da importância no relato financeiro

Mestrado em Contabilidade Internacional

A actual conjuntura económico-financeira e os mercados de futuros sobre o petróleo

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira