Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods

Identifying crash “hotspots”, “blackspots”, “sites with promise”, or “high risk” locations is standard practice in departments of transportation throughout the US. The literature is replete with the development and discussion of statistical methods for hotspot identification (HSID). Theoretical derivations and empirical studies have been used to weigh the benefits of various HSID methods; however, a small number of studies have used controlled experiments to systematically assess various methods. Using experimentally derived simulated data—which are argued to be superior to empirical data, three hot spot identification methods observed in practice are evaluated: simple ranking, confidence interval, and Empirical Bayes. Using simulated data, sites with promise are known a priori, in contrast to empirical data where high risk sites are not known for certain. To conduct the evaluation, properties of observed crash data are used to generate simulated crash frequency distributions at hypothetical sites. A variety of factors is manipulated to simulate a host of ‘real world’ conditions. Various levels of confidence are explored, and false positives (identifying a safe site as high risk) and false negatives (identifying a high risk site as safe) are compared across methods. Finally, the effects of crash history duration in the three HSID approaches are assessed. The results illustrate that the Empirical Bayes technique significantly outperforms ranking and confidence interval techniques (with certain caveats). As found by others, false positives and negatives are inversely related. Three years of crash history appears, in general, to provide an appropriate crash history duration.

Spatial analysis of notified dengue fever infections

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran’s I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Spatial incidence of dengue infections in Queensland, Australia - reply

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran's I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Enhanced processing of SPOT multispectral satellite imagery for environmental monitoring and modelling

The Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya form the northernmost part of Africa’s Eastern Arc Mountains, which have been identified by Conservation International as one of the top ten biodiversity hotspots on Earth. As with many areas of the developing world, over recent decades the Taita Hills have experienced significant population growth leading to associated major changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as escalating land degradation, particularly soil erosion. Multi-temporal medium resolution multispectral optical satellite data, such as imagery from the SPOT HRV, HRVIR, and HRG sensors, provides a valuable source of information for environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level at local and regional scales. However, utilization of multi-temporal SPOT data in quantitative remote sensing studies requires the removal of atmospheric effects and the derivation of surface reflectance factor. Furthermore, for areas of rugged terrain, such as the Taita Hills, topographic correction is necessary to derive comparable reflectance throughout a SPOT scene. Reliable monitoring of LULC change over time and modelling of land degradation and human population distribution and abundance are of crucial importance to sustainable development, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and understanding and mitigating climate change and its impacts. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop and validate enhanced processing of SPOT satellite imagery for use in environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level, in regions of the developing world with limited ancillary data availability. The Taita Hills formed the application study site, whilst the Helsinki metropolitan region was used as a control site for validation and assessment of the applied atmospheric correction techniques, where multiangular reflectance field measurements were taken and where horizontal visibility meteorological data concurrent with image acquisition were available. The proposed historical empirical line method (HELM) for absolute atmospheric correction was found to be the only applied technique that could derive surface reflectance factor within an RMSE of < 0.02 ps in the SPOT visible and near-infrared bands; an accuracy level identified as a benchmark for successful atmospheric correction. A multi-scale segmentation/object relationship modelling (MSS/ORM) approach was applied to map LULC in the Taita Hills from the multi-temporal SPOT imagery. This object-based procedure was shown to derive significant improvements over a uni-scale maximum-likelihood technique. The derived LULC data was used in combination with low cost GIS geospatial layers describing elevation, rainfall and soil type, to model degradation in the Taita Hills in the form of potential soil loss, utilizing the simple universal soil loss equation (USLE). Furthermore, human population distribution and abundance were modelled with satisfactory results using only SPOT and GIS derived data and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. The SPOT derived LULC data was found to be unnecessary as a predictor because the first and second order image texture measurements had greater power to explain variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. The ability of the procedures to be implemented locally in the developing world using low-cost or freely available data and software was considered. The techniques discussed in this thesis are considered equally applicable to other medium- and high-resolution optical satellite imagery, as well the utilized SPOT data.

Twisted aromatics, 9-anthryl and 1-pyrenyl terpyridines organize into novel multi-directional 'ladder-like' motifs in the solid state

9-Anthryl and 1-pyrenyl terpyridines (1 and 2, respectively), key precursors for the design of novel fluorescent sensors have been synthesized and characterized by H-1 NMR, mass spectroscopy and X-ray crystallography. Twisted molecular conformations for each 1 and 2 were observed in their single crystal structures. Energy minimization calculations for the 1 and 2 using the semi-empirical AM1 method show that the 'twisted' conformation is intrinsic to these systems. We observe interconnected networks of edge-to-face CH...pi interactions, which appear to be cooperative in nature, in each of the crystal structures. The two twisted molecules, although having differently shaped polyaromatic hydrocarbon substituents, show similar patterns of edge-to-face CH...pi interactions.The presently described systems comprise of two aromatic surfaces that are almost orthogonal to each other. This twisted or orthogonal nature of the molecules leads to the formation of interesting multi-directional ladder like supramolecular organizations. A combination of edge-to-face and face-to-face packing modes helps to stabilize these motifs. The ladder like architecture in 1 is helical in nature. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Contribuição à confiabilidade de estacas tipo raiz através de um estudo de provas de carga estáticas com aplicação da teoria bayesiana.

Atualmente, o assunto de segurança em fundações tem despertado a atenção de diversos pesquisadores. Muitos entendem ser ultrapassada a utilização, pura e simples, de fatores de segurança em obras geotécnicas. O tratamento determinístico nos projetos de fundações não corresponde às variações e incertezas geradas em todo o processo de investigação do subsolo e processo executivo da fundação, sendo ainda o projeto de fundações um fim de linha de uma longa fila de disciplinas que a precedem e que geram também incertezas nas informações de esforços de suas estruturas e solicitações nas fundações. Porém, são as fundações as primeiras a serem executadas em qualquer obra civil. Este aspecto tem levado à necessidade crescente de verificar também a probabilidade de ruína da fundação por meio da chamada análise de confiabilidade. Com o objetivo de contribuir com a discussão sobre o emprego da análise de confiabilidade, as orientações da norma e o aprimoramento de modelos de cálculo, esta dissertação apresenta, através da aplicação em um estudo de caso, os diferentes aspectos de segurança abordados em projetos de fundações. Procura-se destacar dois tipos básicos de incertezas: aquelas inerentes à variabilidade espacial das propriedades do solo e as decorrentes do modelo de cálculo. Nesta pesquisa são procedidas inicialmente as extrapolações das curvas das provas de carga, que resultarão nos valores da função de Verossimilhança, para a atualização por Bayes. Numa segunda etapa se procede à estimativa da capacidade de carga a priori por alguns métodos consagrados e amplamente utilizados no Brasil. A atualização da estimativa da capacidade de carga é, a seguir, realizada através da metodologia de Bayes, sendo esta uma aplicação de conceitos da probabilidade condicional. A ideia de se proceder a estas duas alternativas de análise à priori foi norteada por duas motivações distintas: i) contribuir para a prática, pelo procedimento de combinação de informações num caso real bem documentado, conforme proposto por Vrouwenvelder (1992) e ii) motivar discussão de opiniões polêmicas de engenheiros de fundações brasileiros em relação à adoção de um fator de segurança inferior a 2 no caso de provas de carga especificadas na fase de projeto.

Photoluminescence pressure coefficients of InAs/GaAs quantum dots

We have investigated the ground exciton energy pressure coefficients of self-assembled InAs/GaAs quantum dots by calculating 21 systems with different quantum dot shape, size, and alloying profile using the atomistic empirical pseudopotential method. Our results confirm the experimentally observed significant reductions of the exciton energy pressure coefficients from the bulk values. We show that the nonlinear pressure coefficients of the bulk InAs and GaAs are responsible for these reductions, and the percentage of the electron wave function on top of GaAs atoms is responsible for the variation of this reduction. We also find a pressure coefficient versus exciton energy relationship which agrees quantitatively with the experimental results. We find linear relationships which can be used to get the information of the electron wave functions from exciton energy pressure coefficient measurements.

Electronic structure of ZnO wurtzite quantum wires

The electronic structure and optical properties of ZnO wurtzite quantum wires with radius R >= 3 nm are studied in the framework of six-band effective-mass envelope function theory. The hole effective-mass parameters of ZnO wurtzite material are calculated by the empirical pseudopotential method. It is found that the electron states are either two-fold or four-fold degenerate. There is a dark exciton effect when the radius R of the ZnO quantum wires is in the range of [3,19.1] nm (dark range in our model). The dark ranges of other wurtzite semiconductor quantum wires are calculated for comparison. The dark range becomes smaller when the |Delta(so)| is larger, which also happens in the quantum-dot systems. The linear polarization factor of ZnO quantum wires is larger when the temperature is higher.

Electronic structures of wurtzite ZnO and ZnO/MgZnO quantum well

The band structures of wurtzite ZnO are calculated using the empirical pseudopotential method (EPM). The 8 parameters of the Zn and O atom pesudopotential form factors with Schluter's formula are obtained. The effective mass parameters are extracted by using k.p Hamiltonian to fit the EPM results. The calculated band edge energies (E-g, E-A, E-B, and E-C) at Gamma point are in good agreement with experimental results. The ordering of ZnO at the top of valence band is found to be A(Gamma(7))-B(Gamma(9))-C(Gamma(7)) due to a negative spin-orbit (SO) splitting. Based on the band parameters obtained, the valence hole subbands of wurzite ZnO/MgxZn1-xO tensile-strained quantum wells (QWs) with different well widths and Mg compositions are calculated using 6-band k.p method. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electronic structure of quantum spheres with wurtzite structure

The hole effective-mass Hamiltonian for the semiconductors with wurtzite structure is given. The effective-mass parameters are determined by fitting the valence-band structure near the top with that calculated by the empirical pseudopotential method: The energies and corresponding wave functions are calculated with the obtained effective-mass Hamiltonian for the CdSe quantum spheres, and the energies as functions of sphere radius R are given for the zero spin-orbital coupling (SOC) and finite SOC cases. The energies do not vary as 1/R-2 as the general cases, which is caused by the crystal-field splitting energy and the linear terms in the Hamiltonian. It is found that the ground state is not the optically active S state for the R smaller than 30 Angstrom, in agreement with the experimental results and the "dark exciton'' theory. [S0163-1829(99)01040-1].

Energy bands and acceptor binding energies of GaN

The energy bands of zinc-blende and wurtzite GaN are calculated with the empirical pseudopotential method, and the pseudopotential parameters for Ga and N atoms are-given. The calculated energy bands are in agreement with those obtained by the ab initio method. The effective-mass theory for the semiconductors of wurtzite structure is established, and the effective-mass parameters of GaN for both structures are given The binding energies of acceptor states are calculated by solving strictly the effective-mass equations. The binding energies of donor and acceptor are 24 and 142 meV for the zinc-blende structure, 20 and 131, and 97 meV for the wurtzite structure, respectively, which are consistent with recent experimental results. It is proposed that there are two kinds of acceptor in wurtzite GaN. One kind is the general acceptor such as C, which substitutes N, which satisfies the effective-mass theory. The other kind of acceptor includes Mg, Zn, Cd, etc., the binding energy of these accepters is deviated from that given by the effective mass theory. In this report, wurtzite GaN is grown by the molecular-beam epitaxy method, and the photoluminescence spectra were measured. Three main peaks are assigned to the donor-acceptor transitions from two kinds of accepters. Some of the transitions were identified as coming from the cubic phase of GaN, which appears randomly within the predominantly hexagonal material. [S0163-1829(99)15915-0].

Electronic structures of wurtzite ZnO and ZnO/MgZnO quantum well

The band structures of wurtzite ZnO are calculated using the empirical pseudopotential method (EPM). The 8 parameters of the Zn and O atom pesudopotential form factors with Schluter's formula are obtained. The effective mass parameters are extracted by using k.p Hamiltonian to fit the EPM results. The calculated band edge energies (E-g, E-A, E-B, and E-C) at Gamma point are in good agreement with experimental results. The ordering of ZnO at the top of valence band is found to be A(Gamma(7))-B(Gamma(9))-C(Gamma(7)) due to a negative spin-orbit (SO) splitting. Based on the band parameters obtained, the valence hole subbands of wurzite ZnO/MgxZn1-xO tensile-strained quantum wells (QWs) with different well widths and Mg compositions are calculated using 6-band k.p method. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BAND-STRUCTURE OF MG1-XZNXSYSE1-Y

The empirical pseudopotential method within the virtual crystal approximation is used to calculate the band structure of Mg1-xZnySySe1-y, which has recently been proved to be a potential semiconductor material for optoelectronic device applications in the blue spectral region. It is shown that MgZnSSe can be a direct or an indirect semiconductor depending on the alloy composition. Electron and hole effective masses are calculated for different compositions. Polynomial approximations are obtained for both the energy gap and the effective mass as functions of alloy composition at the GAMMA valley. This information will be useful for the future design of blue wavelength optoelectronic devices as well as for assessment of their properties.

INTERVALLEY GAMMA-CHI DEFORMATION POTENTIALS IN III-V ZINCBLENDE SEMICONDUCTORS BY ABINITIO PSEUDOPOTENTIAL CALCULATIONS

Intervalley GAMMA-X deformation-potential constants (IVDP's) have been calculated by use of a first-principles pseudopotential method for the III-V zinc-blende semiconductors AlP, AlAs, AlSb, GaP, GaAs, GaSb, InP, InAs, and InSb. When the calculated IVDP's of LA phonons for GaP, InP, and InAs and of LO phonons for AlAs, AlSb, GaAs, GaSb, and InSb are compared with results of a previous calculation that used the empirical pseudopotential method (EPM) and a rigid-ion approximation, good agreement is found. However, our ab initio pseudopotential results on IVDP's of LA phonons for AlAs, AlSb, GaAs, GaSb, and InSb and of LO phonons for GaP, InP, and InAs are about one order of magnitude smaller than those obtained by use of EPM calculations, indicating that the electron redistribution accompanying crystal-lattice deformation has a significant effect on GAMMA-X intervalley scattering for these phonon modes when the anions are being displaced. In our calculations the LA- and LO-phonon modes at the X point have been evaluated in the frozen-phonon approximation. We have also obtained the LAX- and LOX-phonon frequencies for these materials from total-energy calculations, which agree very well with experimental values for these semiconductors. We have also calculated GAMMA-X hole-phonon scattering matrix elements for the top valence bands in these nine semiconductors, from which the GAMMA-X IVDP's of the top valence bands for the longitudinal phonons and transverse phonons are evaluated, respectively.

Electronic properties of zinc-blende GaN, AlN, and their alloys Ga1-xAlxN

The electronic properties of wide-energy gap zinc-blende structure GaN, A1N, and their alloys Ga(1-x)A1(x)N are investigated using the empirical pseudopotential method. Electron and hole effective mass parameters, hydrostatic and shear deformation potential constants of the valence band at Gamma and those of the conduction band at Gamma and X are obtained for GaN and AIN, respectively. The energies of Gamma, X, L conduction valleys of Ga(1-x)A1(x)N alloy versus Al fraction x are also calculated. The information will be useful for the design of lattice mismatched heterostructure optoelectronic devices based on these materials in the blue light range application. (C) 1995 American Institute of Physics.