Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Normative Topographic ERP Analyses of Speed of Speech Processing and Grammar Before and After Grammatical Treatment.

Typically developing (TD) preschoolers and age-matched preschoolers with specific language impairment (SLI) received event-related potentials (ERPs) to four monosyllabic speech sounds prior to treatment and, in the SLI group, after 6 months of grammatical treatment. Before treatment, the TD group processed speech sounds faster than the SLI group. The SLI group increased the speed of their speech processing after treatment. Posttreatment speed of speech processing predicted later impairment in comprehending phrase elaboration in the SLI group. During the treatment phase, change in speed of speech processing predicted growth rate of grammar in the SLI group.

Strategies and tools for preventing neurotoxicity: to test, to predict and how to do it

A change in paradigm is needed in the prevention of toxic effects on the nervous system, moving from its present reliance solely on data from animal testing to a prediction model mostly based on in vitro toxicity testing and in silico modeling. According to the report published by the National Research Council (NRC) of the US National Academies of Science, high-throughput in vitro tests will provide evidence for alterations in"toxicity pathways" as the best possible method of large scale toxicity prediction. The challenges to implement this proposal are enormous, and provide much room for debate. While many efforts address the technical aspects of implementing the vision, many questions around it need also to be addressed. Is the overall strategy the only one to be pursued? How can we move from current to future paradigms? Will we ever be able to reliably model for chronic and developmental neurotoxicity in vitro? This paper summarizes four presentations from a symposium held at the International Neurotoxicology Conference held in Xi"an, China, in June 2011. A. Li reviewed the current guidelines for neurotoxicity and developmental neurotoxicity testing, and discussed the major challenges existing to realize the NCR vision for toxicity testing. J. Llorens reviewed the biology of mammalian toxic avoidance in view of present knowledge on the physiology and molecular biology of the chemical senses, taste and smell. This background information supports the hypothesis that relating in vivo toxicity to chemical epitope descriptors that mimic the chemical encoding performed by the olfactory system may provide a way to the long term future of complete in silico toxicity prediction. S. Ceccatelli reviewed the implementation of rodent and human neural stem cells (NSCs) as models for in vitro toxicity testing that measures parameters such as cell proliferation, differentiation and migration. These appear to be sensitive endpoints that can identify substances with developmental neurotoxic potential. C. Sun ol reviewed the use of primary neuronal cultures in testing for neurotoxicity of environmental pollutants, including the study of the effects of persistent exposures and/or in differentiating cells, which allow recording of effects that can be extrapolated to human developmental neurotoxicity.

End User Perspective to ERP Implementation

Toiminnanohjausjärjestelmät ovat oleellinen osa yrityksien liiketoimintaa. Järjestelmän päivittäminen uudempaan versioon tai kokonaan uuden järjestelmän käyttöönotto saattavat yrityksen ydintoiminnot ja prosessit hyvin haavoittuvaiseen asemaan. Järjestelmien kokonaisvaltaisuus yhdessä reaaliaikaisen käyttöönoton kanssa tekevät näistä projekteista erityisen haasteellisia. Tämä pro gradu -tutkielman tapaustutkimuskohteena toimi Andritz Oy. Tapaustutkimuksen tavoitteena oli arvioida kesäkuussa 2005 suoritettua toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöönottoa ja sitä kuinka hyvin tässä onnistuttiin. Tutkimus toteutettiin loppukäyttäjännäkökulmasta. Loppukäyttäjä omalla työllään voi vaikuttaa miten hyvin järjestelmästä tavoitellut hyödyt pystytään lunastamaan. Tutkimus on laadullinen tapaustutkimus. Tutkimuksessa kiinnitetään huomiota erityisestiprojektitiimin, johdon ja käyttäjien eroaviin näkemyksiin käyttöönoton onnistumisesta.

MANAGING STRATEGIC CHANGE:New Business Models Applying Wireless Technology as a Source of Competitive Edge

The diffusion of mobile telephony began in 1971 in Finland, when the first car phones, called ARP1 were taken to use. Technologies changed from ARP to NMT and later to GSM. The main application of the technology, however, was voice transfer. The birth of the Internet created an open public data network and easy access to other types of computer-based services over networks. Telephones had been used as modems, but the development of the cellular technologies enabled automatic access from mobile phones to Internet. Also other wireless technologies, for instance Wireless LANs, were also introduced. Telephony had developed from analog to digital in fixed networks and allowed easy integration of fixed and mobile networks. This development opened a completely new functionality to computers and mobile phones. It also initiated the merger of the information technology (IT) and telecommunication (TC) industries. Despite the arising opportunity for firms' new competition the applications based on the new functionality were rare. Furthermore, technology development combined with innovation can be disruptive to industries. This research focuses on the new technology's impact on competition in the ICT industry through understanding the strategic needs and alternative futures of the industry's customers. The change speed inthe ICT industry is high and therefore it was valuable to integrate the DynamicCapability view of the firm in this research. Dynamic capabilities are an application of the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. As is stated in the literature, strategic positioning complements RBV. This theoretical framework leads theresearch to focus on three areas: customer strategic innovation and business model development, external future analysis, and process development combining these two. The theoretical contribution of the research is in the development of methodology integrating theories of the RBV, dynamic capabilities and strategic positioning. The research approach has been constructive due to the actual managerial problems initiating the study. The requirement for iterative and innovative progress in the research supported the chosen research approach. The study applies known methods in product development, for instance, innovation process in theGroup Decision Support Systems (GDSS) laboratory and Quality Function Deployment (QFD), and combines them with known strategy analysis tools like industry analysis and scenario method. As the main result, the thesis presents the strategic innovation process, where new business concepts are used to describe the alternative resource configurations and scenarios as alternative competitive environments, which can be a new way for firms to achieve competitive advantage in high-velocity markets. In addition to the strategic innovation process as a result, thestudy has also resulted in approximately 250 new innovations for the participating firms, reduced technology uncertainty and helped strategic infrastructural decisions in the firms, and produced a knowledge-bank including data from 43 ICT and 19 paper industry firms between the years 1999 - 2004. The methods presentedin this research are also applicable to other industries.

Implementación de una herramienta de gestión de cambios dentro del ERP eSengoⓇ, e introducción al ERP eSengoⓇ y al framework SherpaBeansⓇ

Esta memoria trata sobre la implementación de un gestor de peticiones de cambio, basado en los estándares definidos por ITIL. Este gestor se implementa dentro del ERP eSengo, desarrollado por Isencia S.L. También se hace una breve explicación sobre los submódulos que han sido necesarios y los estados de flujo de ejecución del gestor. Además se explican características sobre el ERP eSengo y sobre la plataforma basada en Java Beans, SherpaBeans, también desarrollada por Isencia, a parte de enumerar las tecnologías que esta plataforma utiliza.

Successful Implementation of an ERP System

Työn tarkoituksena on tarkastella ERP-järjestelmän käyttöönottoa ja tarjota ohjekartta kuinka tehdä se menestyksekkäästi. Lisäksi työ kartoittaa Konecranesin saamia etuja ja hyötyjä yrityksen ottaessa ERP-järjestelmä käyttöön. Käyttöönottoprojekti, sen vaiheet ja muut merkittävät ERP-projekteihin liittyvät vaiheet on kuvattu työssä yksityiskohtaisesti. Ensiksi ERP-järjestelmän käyttöönottoa tarkastellaan kirjallisuuteen perustuen. Myöhemmin sitä tarkastellaan perustuen kirjoittajan kokemuksiin ja havaintoihin ERP-järjestelmän käyttöönotosta, ja vertaillaan käytännön suhdetta teoriaan.ERP-järjestemät ovat kalliita ja niiden käyttöön ottaminen on aikaa vievää. Viimeisen vuosikymmenen aikana yritykset ovat enenevissä määrin alkaneet ottamaan ERP-järjestelmiä käyttöön. ERP-järjestelmät ovat saavuttaneet kasvavaa suosiota mm. niiden operaatioita integroivan ja tehostavan luonteesta ansiosta sekä niiden kyvystä tarjota päivitettyä tietoa reaaliajassa.Myös menestyksekkäissä ERP-projekteissa on parantamisen varaa. Mitattaessa ERP- projektin menestyksellisyyttä pitäisi käyttää sekä määrällisiä että laadullisia mittareita. On helppoa käyttää ainoastaan määrällisiä mittareita. Usein kuitenkin laadulliset asiat ovat tärkeämpiä. Ihmiset on saatava sitoutumaan yhteiseen tavoitteeseen kommunikaation avulla. Huonoja ensivaikutelmia on vaikea muuttaa. Vaikka vaikuttaisikin siltä, että ERP-projekti on onnistunut, kun kaikki näyttää hyvältä ”paperilla”, loppujen lopuksi systeemiä käyttävät ihmiset päättävät projektin menestyksellisyydestä. Järjestelmän käyttöönottohetkeä on pidettävä ERP-projektin ensimmäisenä vaiheena.

REGSTATTOOLS: freeware statistical tools for the analysis of disease population databases used in health and social studies

Background: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLS http://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease"s rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). Results: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. Conclusions: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require.

Tolerance and Relative Utility: Two Proposed Indices for Comparing Change in Clinical Measurement Noise Between Different Populations (Repeatability) or Measurement Methods (Agreement).

Reaching a consensus in terms of interchangeability and utility (i.e., disease detection/monitoring) of a medical device is the eventual aim of repeatability and agreement studies. The aim of the tolerance and relative utility indices described in this report is to provide a methodology to compare change in clinical measurement noise between different populations (repeatability) or measurement methods (agreement), so as to highlight problematic areas. No longitudinal data are required to calculate these indices. Both indices establish a metric of least to most effected across all parameters to facilitate comparison. If validated, these indices may prove useful tools when combining reports and forming the consensus required in the validation process for software updates and new medical devices.

Establishing the Stages and Processes of Change for Weight Loss by Consensus of Experts

The present study aimed to establish, by a consensus of experts, the stages and processes of change for weight management in overweight and obese people. The first step involved developing two questionnaires aimed at assessing stages and processes of change for weight loss in overweight and obese people. The processes-ofchange questionnaire consisted of 12 subscales, and contained 107 items. A three-round Delphi study was carried out through a website, where participants were asked to give their opinion about the representativeness and clarity of the scale items. The stages-of-change questionnaire consisted of five items and was presented in the final round of the study. A team of 66 experts in the obesity field from 29 countries participated in the study. They were selected either because they belonged to the organizing committee of international associations related to obesity, or because of their research career. The required changes in the questionnaire were made according to the opinions of the participants. Some of these were the result of the group statistical response, whereas others were due to the suggestions made by the participants. A final version of the questionnaire consisting of 63 items was eventually obtained. The present study produced two questionnaires to assess stages and processes of change for weight management. The strength of the study lies in the consensus reached by the panel of experts in order to establish the required content of the questionnaires. The two measures provide useful tools for practitioners who wish to tailor weight-management interventions according to transtheoretical model constructs.

Groupware and Workflow Tools - A Case study of SAP Business Workflow Supporting System Integration in a Global Telecommunication Company

Workflow management systems aim at the controlled execution of complex application processes in distributed and heterogeneous environments. These systems will shape the structure of information systems in business and non-business environments. E business and system integration is a fertile soil for WF and groupware tools. This thesis aims to study WF and groupware tools in order to gather in house knowledge of WF to better utilize WF solutions in future, and to focus on SAP Business Workflow in order to find a global solution for Application Link Enabling support for system integration. Piloting this solution in Nokia collects the experience of SAP R/3 WF tool for other development projects in future. The literary part of this study will guide to the world of business process automation providing a general description of the history, use and potentials of WF & groupware software. The empirical part of this study begins with the background of the case study describing the IT environment initiating the case by introducing SAP R/3 in Nokia, the communication technique in use and WF tool. Case study is focused in one solution with SAP Business Workflow. This study provides a concept to monitor communication between ERP systems and to increase the quality of system integration. Case study describes a way create support model for ALE/EDI interfaces. Support model includes monitoring organization and the workflow processes to solve the most common IDoc related errors.

Rural Food System Change in Tanzania during the Post-Ujamaa Era. A Case Study from Western Bagamoyo District

Food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa have been rapidly transforming during the recent decades with diverse outcomes on human development and environment. This study explores the food system change in rural villages in eastern Tanzania where subsistence agriculture has traditionally been the main source of livelihood. The focus is on the salient changes in the spatial dimensions and structural composition of the food system in the context of economic liberalization that has taken place after the end of the socialist ujamaa era in the mid-1980s. In addition, the linkages of the changes are examined in relation to food security, socio-economic situation, livelihoods, and local environment. The approach of the study is geographical, but also involves various multi-disciplinary elements, particularly from development studies. The research methods included thematic and questionnaire interviews, participatory tools, and the analysis of land use/ cover data and official documents. Several earlier studies that were made in the area during the late 1970s and 1980s provided an important reference base. The study shows that subsistence farming has lost its dominant role in food provisioning due to the declining productivity of land, livestock losses, and the increasing shift of labour to non-farm sectors. Also rapid population growth has added to the pressure on land and other natural resources. Despite the increasing need for money for buying marketed foods and other necessities, the nutritional situation shows improvement and severe malnutrition has diminished. However, the long-term sustainability of this transformation raises concerns. Firstly, the food security situation continues to be fragile and prone to shocks such as adverse climatic conditions, crop failures and price hikes. Secondly, the commodification of the food system and livelihoods in general is linked to rapid environmental degradation in the area, particularly the loss of soil fertility and deforestation. The situation calls for efforts that take more determined and holistic approaches towards sustainable development of the rural food system with particular focus on the role and viability of small-scale farming.

Toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöönotto varastojen ja työkalujen hallintaan

Tämä diplomityö käsittelee toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöönottoprojektia varastojen ja työkalujen hallintaan TeollisuusSepät Oy:ssä. Tämän työn käyttöönottoprojektissa laajennetaan yrityksessä jo olemassa olevan toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöä, ottamalla se käyttöön myös yrityksen varastojen ja työkalujen hallintaan. Käyttöönottoprojektin tavoitteena on lyhentää tuotteiden kiertoaikaa varastossa ja pienentää varastoon sitoutuvaa pääomaa sekä saada työkalujen tiedot yhteen tietokantaan. Työn teoriaosuudessa käsitellään toiminnanohjausjärjestelmää yleisesti ja sen käyttöönotto liittyviä vaiheita sekä muutosvastarintaa ja onnistuneen muutoksen vaiheita. Empiria osuudessa käydään läpi toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöönottoprojekti varastojen ja työkalujen hallintaan TeollisuusSepät Oy:ssä ja käyttäjien tyytyväisyyttä toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöön käyttöönottoprojektin jälkeen. Käyttöönottoprojektin jälkeen havaitaan, että käyttäjät ovat tyytyväisiä toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöön varastojen ja työkalujen hallintaan. Projektin aikana on myös ilmennyt uusia mahdollisia käyttökohteita toiminnanohjausjärjestelmälle TeollisuusSepät Oy:ssä.

Maintaining supply performance during an ERP system implementation phase : case Cloetta Suomi Oy

Implementing an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system often means a major change to an organization and involves significant risks. It is typical that many of the ERP system implementations fail resulting in tremendous damage to the business. Moreover, running normal business operations during an ERP system implementation is far more complicated than normally. This thesis focuses on how an organization should manage the ERP system implementation process in order to maintain supply performance during the implementation phase. The theoretical framework in this thesis focuses on ERP system implementations with a critical success factor approach. Critical success factors can be divided into strategic and tactical level success factors. By considering these critical success factors, ERP system implementation project’s timeline and best practices of an ERP implementation, a critical success factor based ERP system implementation management framework is presented. The framework can be used as a theoretical framework when the goal is to avoid ERP system implementation phase issues that are driven by the ERP system implementation project and that may decrease organization’s supply performance. This thesis is a case study that was written on an assignment to a confectionary company Cloetta Suomi Oy. In order to collect data, interviews of the case company personnel were conducted. In addition, several other data collection methods were used throughout the research process. These data collection methods include examination of presentations and archival records as well as direct observations in case company meetings and in various work duties. The results of this thesis indicate that there are several factors that may decrease organization’s supply performance during the ERP system implementation. These issues are categorized under external and internal issues and further into six risk drivers that are suppliers, customers, products, staff, information systems and other projects. After the description and categorization of each issue, the thesis focuses on finding solutions on how to avoid or mitigate the impact of these issues on the organization’s supply performance. This examination leads to several operational activities that are also practical to business practitioners. It is also stated that a successful ERP system implementation that also causes minimal disturbance to organization’s supply performance during the ERP system implementation, is achieved by considering three levels of actions.