Ensaios sobre mercados artificiais com dois ativos utilizando algoritmos genéticos

A abordagem de Modelos Baseados em Agentes é utilizada para trabalhar problemas complexos, em que se busca obter resultados partindo da análise e construção de componentes e das interações entre si. Os resultados observados a partir das simulações são agregados da combinação entre ações e interferências que ocorrem no nível microscópico do modelo. Conduzindo, desta forma, a uma simulação do micro para o macro. Os mercados financeiros são sistemas perfeitos para o uso destes modelos por preencherem a todos os seus requisitos. Este trabalho implementa um Modelo de Mercado Financeiro Baseado em Agentes constituído por diversos agentes que interagem entre si através de um Núcleo de Negociação que atua com dois ativos e conta com o auxílio de formadores de mercado para promover a liquidez dos mercados, conforme se verifica em mercados reais. Para operação deste modelo, foram desenvolvidos dois tipos de agentes que administram, simultaneamente, carteiras com os dois ativos. O primeiro tipo usa o modelo de Markowitz, enquanto o segundo usa técnicas de análise de spread entre ativos. Outra contribuição deste modelo é a análise sobre o uso de função objetivo sobre os retornos dos ativos, no lugar das análises sobre os preços.

Determinação dos parâmetros do controlador preditivo generalizado com função de pesos variante no tempo através de algoritmos genéticos

The predictive control technique has gotten, on the last years, greater number of adepts in reason of the easiness of adjustment of its parameters, of the exceeding of its concepts for multi-input/multi-output (MIMO) systems, of nonlinear models of processes could be linearised around a operating point, so can clearly be used in the controller, and mainly, as being the only methodology that can take into consideration, during the project of the controller, the limitations of the control signals and output of the process. The time varying weighting generalized predictive control (TGPC), studied in this work, is one more an alternative to the several existing predictive controls, characterizing itself as an modification of the generalized predictive control (GPC), where it is used a reference model, calculated in accordance with parameters of project previously established by the designer, and the application of a new function criterion, that when minimized offers the best parameters to the controller. It is used technique of the genetic algorithms to minimize of the function criterion proposed and searches to demonstrate the robustness of the TGPC through the application of performance, stability and robustness criterions. To compare achieves results of the TGPC controller, the GCP and proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controllers are used, where whole the techniques applied to stable, unstable and of non-minimum phase plants. The simulated examples become fulfilled with the use of MATLAB tool. It is verified that, the alterations implemented in TGPC, allow the evidence of the efficiency of this algorithm

Uma implementação paralela híbrida para o problema do caixeiro viajante usando algoritmos genéticos, GRASP e aprendizagem por reforço

The metaheuristics techiniques are known to solve optimization problems classified as NP-complete and are successful in obtaining good quality solutions. They use non-deterministic approaches to generate solutions that are close to the optimal, without the guarantee of finding the global optimum. Motivated by the difficulties in the resolution of these problems, this work proposes the development of parallel hybrid methods using the reinforcement learning, the metaheuristics GRASP and Genetic Algorithms. With the use of these techniques, we aim to contribute to improved efficiency in obtaining efficient solutions. In this case, instead of using the Q-learning algorithm by reinforcement learning, just as a technique for generating the initial solutions of metaheuristics, we use it in a cooperative and competitive approach with the Genetic Algorithm and GRASP, in an parallel implementation. In this context, was possible to verify that the implementations in this study showed satisfactory results, in both strategies, that is, in cooperation and competition between them and the cooperation and competition between groups. In some instances were found the global optimum, in others theses implementations reach close to it. In this sense was an analyze of the performance for this proposed approach was done and it shows a good performance on the requeriments that prove the efficiency and speedup (gain in speed with the parallel processing) of the implementations performed

Algoritmos genéticos e processamento paralelo aplicados à definição e treinamento de redes neurais perceptron de múltiplas camadas

ln this work, it was deveIoped a parallel cooperative genetic algorithm with different evolution behaviors to train and to define architectures for MuItiIayer Perceptron neural networks. MuItiIayer Perceptron neural networks are very powerful tools and had their use extended vastIy due to their abiIity of providing great resuIts to a broad range of appIications. The combination of genetic algorithms and parallel processing can be very powerful when applied to the Iearning process of the neural network, as well as to the definition of its architecture since this procedure can be very slow, usually requiring a lot of computational time. AIso, research work combining and appIying evolutionary computation into the design of neural networks is very useful since most of the Iearning algorithms deveIoped to train neural networks only adjust their synaptic weights, not considering the design of the networks architecture. Furthermore, the use of cooperation in the genetic algorithm allows the interaction of different populations, avoiding local minima and helping in the search of a promising solution, acceIerating the evolutionary process. Finally, individuaIs and evolution behavior can be exclusive on each copy of the genetic algorithm running in each task enhancing the diversity of populations

Otimização de modelos de predição da perda de propagação aplicáveis em 3,5GHZ utilizando algoritmos genéticos

The telecommunications industry has experienced recent changes, due to increasing quest for access to digital services for data, video and multimedia, especially using the mobile phone networks. Recently in Brazil, mobile operators are upgrading their networks to third generations systems (3G) providing to users broadband services such as video conferencing, Internet, digital TV and more. These new networks that provides mobility and high data rates has allowed the development of new market concepts. Currently the market is focused on the expansion of WiMAX technology, which is gaining increasingly the market for mobile voice and data. In Brazil, the commercial interest for this technology appears to the first award of licenses in the 3.5 GHz band. In February 2003 ANATEL held the 003/2002/SPV-ANATEL bidding, where it offered blocks of frequencies in the range of 3.5 GHz. The enterprises who purchased blocks of frequency were: Embratel, Brazil Telecom (Vant), Grupo Sinos, Neovia and WKVE, each one with operations spread in some regions of Brazil. For this and other wireless communications systems are implemented effectively, many efforts have been invested in attempts to developing simulation methods for coverage prediction that is close to reality as much as possible so that they may become believers and indispensable tools to design wireless communications systems. In this work wasm developed a genetic algorithm (GA's) that is able to optimize the models for predicting propagation loss at applicable frequency range of 3.5 GHz, thus enabling an estimate of the signal closer to reality to avoid significant errors in planning and implementation a system of wireless communication

Otimização do controle eletrônico do diagrama de radiação de arranjos de antenas usando algoritmos genéticos com codificação real

Antenna arrays are able to provide high and controlled directivity, which are suitable for radiobase stations, radar systems, and point-to-point or satellite links. The optimization of an array design is usually a hard task because of the non-linear characteristic of multiobjective, requiring the application of numerical techniques, such as genetic algorithms. Therefore, in order to optimize the electronic control of the antenna array radiation pattem through genetic algorithms in real codification, it was developed a numerical tool which is able to positioning the array major lobe, reducing the side lobe levels, canceling interference signals in specific directions of arrival, and improving the antenna radiation performance. This was accomplished by using antenna theory concepts and optimization methods, mainly genetic algorithms ones, allowing to develop a numerical tool with creative genes codification and crossover rules, which is one of the most important contribution of this work. The efficiency of the developed genetic algorithm tool is tested and validated in several antenna and propagation applications. 11 was observed that the numerical results attend the specific requirements, showing the developed tool ability and capacity to handle the considered problems, as well as a great perspective for application in future works.

Algoritmos genéticos aplicados a um comitê de LS-SVM em problemas de classificação

The pattern classification is one of the machine learning subareas that has the most outstanding. Among the various approaches to solve pattern classification problems, the Support Vector Machines (SVM) receive great emphasis, due to its ease of use and good generalization performance. The Least Squares formulation of SVM (LS-SVM) finds the solution by solving a set of linear equations instead of quadratic programming implemented in SVM. The LS-SVMs provide some free parameters that have to be correctly chosen to achieve satisfactory results in a given task. Despite the LS-SVMs having high performance, lots of tools have been developed to improve them, mainly the development of new classifying methods and the employment of ensembles, in other words, a combination of several classifiers. In this work, our proposal is to use an ensemble and a Genetic Algorithm (GA), search algorithm based on the evolution of species, to enhance the LSSVM classification. In the construction of this ensemble, we use a random selection of attributes of the original problem, which it splits the original problem into smaller ones where each classifier will act. So, we apply a genetic algorithm to find effective values of the LS-SVM parameters and also to find a weight vector, measuring the importance of each machine in the final classification. Finally, the final classification is obtained by a linear combination of the decision values of the LS-SVMs with the weight vector. We used several classification problems, taken as benchmarks to evaluate the performance of the algorithm and compared the results with other classifiers

Seleção de atributos em comitês de classificadores utilizando algoritmos genéticos

Classifier ensembles are systems composed of a set of individual classifiers and a combination module, which is responsible for providing the final output of the system. In the design of these systems, diversity is considered as one of the main aspects to be taken into account since there is no gain in combining identical classification methods. The ideal situation is a set of individual classifiers with uncorrelated errors. In other words, the individual classifiers should be diverse among themselves. One way of increasing diversity is to provide different datasets (patterns and/or attributes) for the individual classifiers. The diversity is increased because the individual classifiers will perform the same task (classification of the same input patterns) but they will be built using different subsets of patterns and/or attributes. The majority of the papers using feature selection for ensembles address the homogenous structures of ensemble, i.e., ensembles composed only of the same type of classifiers. In this investigation, two approaches of genetic algorithms (single and multi-objective) will be used to guide the distribution of the features among the classifiers in the context of homogenous and heterogeneous ensembles. The experiments will be divided into two phases that use a filter approach of feature selection guided by genetic algorithm

Métodos estatisticos em cadeias de Markov

Este trabalho tem como objetivo o estudo do comportamento assintótico da estatística de Pearson (1900), que é o aparato teórico do conhecido teste qui-quadrado ou teste x2 como também é usualmente denotado. Inicialmente estudamos o comportamento da distribuição da estatística qui-quadrado de Pearson (1900) numa amostra {X1, X2,...,Xn} quando n → ∞ e pi = pi0 , 8n. Em seguida detalhamos os argumentos usados em Billingley (1960), os quais demonstram a convergência em distribuição de uma estatística, semelhante a de Pearson, baseada em uma amostra de uma cadeia de Markov, estacionária, ergódica e com espaço de estados finitos S

Estimador do Tipo Núcleo para Densidades Limites de Cadeias de Markov com Espaço de Estados Geral

In this work we studied the consistency for a class of kernel estimates of f f (.) in the Markov chains with general state space E C Rd case. This study is divided into two parts: In the first one f (.) is a stationary density of the chain, and in the second one f (x) v (dx) is the limit distribution of a geometrically ergodic chain

Ergodicidade em cadeias de Markov não-homogêneas e cadeias de Markov com transições raras

The central objective of a study Non-Homogeneous Markov Chains is the concept of weak and strong ergodicity. A chain is weak ergodic if the dependence on the initial distribution vanishes with time, and it is strong ergodic if it is weak ergodic and converges in distribution. Most theoretical results on strong ergodicity assume some knowledge of the limit behavior of the stationary distributions. In this work, we collect some general results on weak and strong ergodicity for chains with space enumerable states, and also study the asymptotic behavior of the stationary distributions of a particular type of Markov Chains with finite state space, called Markov Chains with Rare Transitions

Avaliação de operadores de algoritmos genéticos em otimização multidimensional

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)