Cardiovascular risk among hypertensive adolescents and the potential benefit of a screen-and-treat strategy.

To evaluate whether screening for hypertension should start early in life, information on the risk of diseases associated with the level of blood pressure in childhood or adolescence is needed. The study by Leiba et al. that is reported in the current issue of Pediatric Nephrology demonstrates convincingly that hypertensive adolescents are at higher risk of cardiovascular death than normotensive adolescents. Nevertheless, it can be shown that this excess risk is not sufficient to justify a screen-and-treat strategy. Since the large majority of cardiovascular deaths occur among normotensive adolescents, measures for primordial prevention of cardiovascular diseases could have a much larger impact at the population level.

Impact of Aldosterone Antagonists on Sudden Cardiac Death Prevention in Heart Failure and Post-Myocardial Infarction Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a severe burden of modern medicine. Aldosterone antagonist is publicized as effective in reducing mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) or post myocardial infarction (MI). Our study aimed to assess the efficacy of AAs on mortality including SCD, hospitalization admission and several common adverse effects. METHODS: We searched Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane library and clinicaltrial.gov for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assigning AAs in patients with HF or post MI through May 2015. The comparator included standard medication or placebo, or both. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. Event rates were compared using a random effects model. Prospective RCTs of AAs with durations of at least 8 weeks were selected if they included at least one of the following outcomes: SCD, all-cause/cardiovascular mortality, all-cause/cardiovascular hospitalization and common side effects (hyperkalemia, renal function degradation and gynecomastia). RESULTS: Data from 19,333 patients enrolled in 25 trials were included. In patients with HF, this treatment significantly reduced the risk of SCD by 19% (RR 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67-0.98; p = 0.03); all-cause mortality by 19% (RR 0.81; 95% CI, 0.74-0.88, p<0.00001) and cardiovascular death by 21% (RR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.89, p<0.00001). In patients with post-MI, the matching reduced risks were 20% (RR 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66-0.98; p = 0.03), 15% (RR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.95, p = 0.003) and 17% (RR 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.94, p = 0.003), respectively. Concerning both subgroups, the relative risks respectively decreased by 19% (RR 0.81; 95% CI, 0.71-0.92; p = 0.002) for SCD, 18% (RR 0.82; 95% CI, 0.77-0.88, p < 0.0001) for all-cause mortality and 20% (RR 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.87, p < 0.0001) for cardiovascular mortality in patients treated with AAs. As well, hospitalizations were significantly reduced, while common adverse effects were significantly increased. CONCLUSION: Aldosterone antagonists appear to be effective in reducing SCD and other mortality events, compared with placebo or standard medication in patients with HF and/or after a MI.

Variation in Current Management of Term and Late-preterm Neonates at Risk for Early-onset Sepsis: An International Survey and Review of Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty about the presence of infection results in unnecessary and prolonged empiric antibiotic treatment of newborns at risk for early-onset sepsis (EOS). This study evaluates the impact of this uncertainty on the diversity in management. METHODS: A web-based survey with questions addressing management of infection risk-adjusted scenarios was performed in Europe, North America, and Australia. Published national guidelines (n = 5) were reviewed and compared with the results of the survey. RESULTS: 439 Clinicians (68% were neonatologists) from 16 countries completed the survey. In the low-risk scenario, 29% would start antibiotic therapy and 26% would not, both groups without laboratory investigations; 45% would start if laboratory markers were abnormal. In the high-risk scenario, 99% would start antibiotic therapy. In the low-risk scenario, 89% would discontinue antibiotic therapy before 72 hours. In the high-risk scenario, 35% would discontinue therapy before 72 hours, 56% would continue therapy for 5-7 days, and 9% for more than 7 days. Laboratory investigations were used in 31% of scenarios for the decision to start, and in 72% for the decision to discontinue antibiotic treatment. National guidelines differ considerably regarding the decision to start in low-risk and regarding the decision to continue therapy in higher risk situations. CONCLUSIONS: There is a broad diversity of clinical practice in management of EOS and a lack of agreement between current guidelines. The results of the survey reflect the diversity of national guidelines. Prospective studies regarding management of neonates at risk of EOS with safety endpoints are needed.

Reduction in the use of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis does not delay antibiotic treatment

BACKGROUND: Despite a low positive predictive value, diagnostic tests such as complete blood count (CBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are commonly used to evaluate whether infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis (EOS) should be treated with antibiotics. STUDY DESIGN: We investigated the impact of imple- menting a protocol aiming at reducing the number of dia- gnostic tests in infants with risk factors for EOS in order to compare the diagnostic performance of repeated clinical examination with CBC and CRP measurement. The primary outcome was the time between birth and the first dose of antibiotics in infants treated for suspected EOS. RESULTS: Among the 11,503 infants born at 35 weeks during the study period, 222 were treated with antibiotics for suspected EOS. The proportion of infants receiving an- tibiotics for suspected EOS was 2.1% and 1.7% before and after the change of protocol (p = 0.09). Reduction of dia- gnostic tests was associated with earlier antibiotic treat- ment in infants treated for suspected EOS (hazard ratio 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.07; p <0.001), and in infants with neonatal infection (hazard ratio 2.20; 95% CI 1.19-4.06; p = 0.01). There was no difference in the duration of hospital stay nor in the proportion of infants requiring respiratory or cardiovascular support before and after the change of protocol. CONCLUSION: Reduction of diagnostic tests such as CBC and CRP does not delay initiation of antibiotic treat- ment in infants with suspected EOS. The importance of clinical examination in infants with risk factors for EOS should be emphasised.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Improving interMediAte Risk management. MARK study

Background: Cardiovascular risk functions fail to identify more than 50% of patients who develop cardiovascular disease. This is especially evident in the intermediate-risk patients in which clinical management becomes difficult. Our purpose is to analyze if ankle-brachial index (ABI), measures of arterial stiffness, postprandial glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, self-measured blood pressure and presence of comorbidity are independently associated to incidence of vascular events and whether they can improve the predictive capacity of current risk equations in the intermediate-risk population. Methods/Design: This project involves 3 groups belonging to REDIAPP (RETICS RD06/0018) from 3 Spanish regions. We will recruit a multicenter cohort of 2688 patients at intermediate risk (coronary risk between 5 and 15% or vascular death risk between 3-5% over 10 years) and no history of atherosclerotic disease, selected at random. We will record socio-demographic data, information on diet, physical activity, comorbidity and intermittent claudication. We will measure ABI, pulse wave velocity and cardio ankle vascular index at rest and after a light intensity exercise. Blood pressure and anthropometric data will be also recorded. We will also quantify lipids, glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin in a fasting blood sample and postprandial capillary glucose. Eighteen months after the recruitment, patients will be followed up to determine the incidence of vascular events (later follow-ups are planned at 5 and 10 years). We will analyze whether the new proposed risk factors contribute to improve the risk functions based on classic risk factors. Discussion: Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is a priority in public health policy of developed and developing countries. The fundamental strategy consists in identifying people in a high risk situation in which preventive measures are effective and efficient. Improvement of these predictions in our country will have an immediate, clinical and welfare impact and a short term public health effect

Patterns of impact resulting from a 'sit less, move more' web-based program in sedentary office employees

Purpose Encouraging office workers to ‘sit less and move more’ encompasses two public health priorities. However, there is little evidence on the effectiveness of workplace interventions for reducing sitting, even less about the longer term effects of such interventions and still less on dual-focused interventions. This study assessed the short and mid-term impacts of a workplace web-based intervention (Walk@WorkSpain, W@WS; 2010-11) on self-reported sitting time, step counts and physical risk factors (waist circumference, BMI, blood pressure) for chronic disease. Methods Employees at six Spanish university campuses (n=264; 42±10 years; 171 female) were randomly assigned by worksite and campus to an Intervention (used W@WS; n=129; 87 female) or a Comparison group (maintained normal behavior; n=135; 84 female). This phased, 19-week program aimed to decrease occupational sitting time through increased incidental movement and short walks. A linear mixed model assessed changes in outcome measures between the baseline, ramping (8 weeks), maintenance (11 weeks) and followup (two months) phases for Intervention versus Comparison groups.A significant 2 (group) × 2 (program phases) interaction was found for self-reported occupational sitting (F[3]=7.97, p=0.046), daily step counts (F[3]=15.68, p=0.0013) and waist circumference (F[3]=11.67, p=0.0086). The Intervention group decreased minutes of daily occupational sitting while also increasing step counts from baseline (446±126; 8,862±2,475) through ramping (+425±120; 9,345±2,435), maintenance (+422±123; 9,638±3,131) and follow-up (+414±129; 9,786±3,205). In the Comparison group, compared to baseline (404±106), sitting time remained unchanged through ramping and maintenance, but decreased at follow-up (-388±120), while step counts diminished across all phases. The Intervention group significantly reduced waist circumference by 2.1cms from baseline to follow-up while the Comparison group reduced waist circumference by 1.3cms over the same period. Conclusions W@WSis a feasible and effective evidence-based intervention that can be successfully deployed with sedentary employees to elicit sustained changes on “sitting less and moving more”.

Assessment of total cardiovascular risk in hypertensive subjects

Valtimotautiriskin arviointi verenpainepotilailla Valtimotaudit ovat yleisin kuolinsyy koko maailmassa. Väestön elintapojen muuttuminen ja ikääntyminen uhkaavat edelleen lisätä valtimotautien esiintyvyyttä. Kokemäenjokilaakson valtimotautien ehkäisyprojektin tavoitteena oli löytää 45–70-vuotiaasta väestöstä henkilöt, joilla on kohonnut riski sairastua valtimotauteihin. Kaksivaiheisen seulontamenetelmän avulla voitiin terveydenhoitajan antama elintapaneuvonta kohdistaa riskihenkilöihin ja rajoittaa lääkärin vastaanoton tarve niihin potilaisiin, jotka todennäköisesti hyötyvät ennaltaehkäisevästä lääkityksestä. Suomalainen tyypin 2 diabeteksen sairastumisriskin arviointikaavake ja hoitajan toteama kohonnut verenpaine osoittautuivat käytännöllisiksi menetelmiksi seuloa väestöstä riskihenkilöitä. Valtimotautien ehkäisyprojektissa Harjavallassa ja Kokemäellä todettiin verenpainetauti 1 106 henkilöllä, jotka eivät sairastaneet valtimotautia tai aiemmin todettua diabetesta. Heidän tutkimustulostensa avulla voidaan arvioida kohonneen verenpaineen vaikutusta sokeriaineenvaihduntaan ja verenpaineen aiheuttamiin kohde-elinvaurioihin. Sokeriaineenvaihdunnan häiriöt ovat verenpainetautia sairastavilla yleisempiä kuin väestössä muutoin. Käyttämällä metabolisen oireyhtymän kriteerejä sokerirasituskokeen suorittamisen edellytyksenä voidaan tutkimusten määrää vähentää kolmanneksella ja silti löytää lähes kaikki diabetesta tai sen esiastetta sairastavat verenpainepotilaat. Verenpainepotilaista etenkin metabolista oireyhtymää sairastavilla naisilla on suurentunut munuaisten vajaatoiminnan riski. Jos verenpainepotilaan munuaisten toimintaa arvioidaan pelkästään plasman kreatiniini -arvon perusteella, kolme neljästä munuaisten vajaatoimintaa potevasta jää toteamatta verrattuna laskennallisen glomerulusten suodattumisnopeuden määritykseen seulontamenetelmänä. Joka kolmannella verenpainetautia sairastavalla voidaan todeta alaraajavaltimoiden kovettumista; useammin niillä, joiden ylä- ja alaverenpaineen erotus, pulssipaine on yli 65 mmHg. Verenpainetauti on itsenäinen perifeerisen valtimotaudin vaaratekijä. Tutkimuksessa käytetty menetelmä nilkka-olkavarsipainesuhteen määrittämiseksi soveltunee hyvin perusterveydenhuollon käyttöön riskihenkilöiden löytämiseksi. Valtimotautien kokonaisriskin arviointimenetelmät tai uuden riskitekijän, herkän C-reaktiivisen proteiinin määritys eivät voi korvata kohde-elinvaurioiden mittaamista verenpainepotilaan valtimotautiriskin huolellisessa arvioinnissa.

Country Risk and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from Finnish Stock Markets

The objective of this thesis is to examine the market reaction around earnings announcements in Finnish stock markets. The aim is to find out whether the extreme market conditions during the financial crisis are reflected in stock prices as a stronger reaction. In addition to this, the purpose is to investigate how extensively Finnish listed companies report the country segmentation of revenues in their interim reports and whether the country risk is having a significant impact on perceived market reaction. The sample covers all companies listed in Helsinki stock exchange at 1.1.2010 and these companies’ interim reports from the first quarter of 2008 to last quarter of 2009. Final sample consists of 81 companies and 630 firm-quarter observations. The data sample has been divided in two parts, of which country risk sample contains 17 companies and 127 observations and comparison sample covers 66 companies and 503 observations. Research methodologies applied in this thesis are event study and cross-sectional regression analysis. Empirical results indicate that the market reaction occurs mainly during the announcement day and is slightly stronger in case of positive earnings surprises than the reactions observed in previous studies. In case of negative earnings surprises no significant differences can be observed. In case of country risk sample and negative earnings surprise market reaction is negative already in advance of the disclosure contrary to comparison sample. In case of positive surprise no differences can be observed. Country risk variable developed during this study seems to explain only minor part of the market reaction.

On the impact of rigorous approaches on the quality of development

Software systems are expanding and becoming increasingly present in everyday activities. The constantly evolving society demands that they deliver more functionality, are easy to use and work as expected. All these challenges increase the size and complexity of a system. People may not be aware of a presence of a software system, until it malfunctions or even fails to perform. The concept of being able to depend on the software is particularly significant when it comes to the critical systems. At this point quality of a system is regarded as an essential issue, since any deficiencies may lead to considerable money loss or life endangerment. Traditional development methods may not ensure a sufficiently high level of quality. Formal methods, on the other hand, allow us to achieve a high level of rigour and can be applied to develop a complete system or only a critical part of it. Such techniques, applied during system development starting at early design stages, increase the likelihood of obtaining a system that works as required. However, formal methods are sometimes considered difficult to utilise in traditional developments. Therefore, it is important to make them more accessible and reduce the gap between the formal and traditional development methods. This thesis explores the usability of rigorous approaches by giving an insight into formal designs with the use of graphical notation. The understandability of formal modelling is increased due to a compact representation of the development and related design decisions. The central objective of the thesis is to investigate the impact that rigorous approaches have on quality of developments. This means that it is necessary to establish certain techniques for evaluation of rigorous developments. Since we are studying various development settings and methods, specific measurement plans and a set of metrics need to be created for each setting. Our goal is to provide methods for collecting data and record evidence of the applicability of rigorous approaches. This would support the organisations in making decisions about integration of formal methods into their development processes. It is important to control the software development, especially in its initial stages. Therefore, we focus on the specification and modelling phases, as well as related artefacts, e.g. models. These have significant influence on the quality of a final system. Since application of formal methods may increase the complexity of a system, it may impact its maintainability, and thus quality. Our goal is to leverage quality of a system via metrics and measurements, as well as generic refinement patterns, which are applied to a model and a specification. We argue that they can facilitate the process of creating software systems, by e.g. controlling complexity and providing the modelling guidelines. Moreover, we find them as additional mechanisms for quality control and improvement, also for rigorous approaches. The main contribution of this thesis is to provide the metrics and measurements that help in assessing the impact of rigorous approaches on developments. We establish the techniques for the evaluation of certain aspects of quality, which are based on structural, syntactical and process related characteristics of an early-stage development artefacts, i.e. specifications and models. The presented approaches are applied to various case studies. The results of the investigation are juxtaposed with the perception of domain experts. It is our aspiration to promote measurements as an indispensable part of quality control process and a strategy towards the quality improvement.

Night admission is an independent risk factor for mortality in trauma patients - a systemic error approach

ABSTRACTObjective:to assess the impact of the shift inlet trauma patients, who underwent surgery, in-hospital mortality.Methods:a retrospective observational cohort study from November 2011 to March 2012, with data collected through electronic medical records. The following variables were statistically analyzed: age, gender, city of origin, marital status, admission to the risk classification (based on the Manchester Protocol), degree of contamination, time / admission round, admission day and hospital outcome.Results:during the study period, 563 patients injured victims underwent surgery, with a mean age of 35.5 years (± 20.7), 422 (75%) were male, with 276 (49.9%) received in the night shift and 205 (36.4%) on weekends. Patients admitted at night and on weekends had higher mortality [19 (6.9%) vs. 6 (2.2%), p=0.014, and 11 (5.4%) vs. 14 (3.9%), p=0.014, respectively]. In the multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality were the night admission (OR 3.15), the red risk classification (OR 4.87), and age (OR 1.17).Conclusion:the admission of night shift and weekend patients was associated with more severe and presented higher mortality rate. Admission to the night shift was an independent factor of surgical mortality in trauma patients, along with the red risk classification and age.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

The Impact of European Macroeconomic News Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets

The purpose of this research is to investigate how CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) stock markets are integrated with Europe as measured by the impact of euro area (EA) scheduled macroeconomic news announcements, which are related to macroeconomic indicators that are commonly used to indicate the direction of the economy. Macroeconomic announcements used in this study can be divided into four categories; (1) prices, (2) real economy, (3) money supply and (4) business climate and consumer confidence. The data set consists of daily market data from CIVETS and scheduled macroeconomic announcements from the EA for the years 2007-2012. The econometric model used in this research is Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH). Empirical results show diverse impacts of macroeconomic news releases and surprises for different categories of news supporting the perception of heterogeneity among CIVETS. The analyses revealed that in general EA macroeconomic news releases and surprises affect stock market volatility in CIVETS and only in some cases asset pricing. In conclusion, all CIVETS stock markets reacted to the incoming EA macroeconomic news suggesting market integration to some extent. Thus, EA should be considered as a possible risk factor when investing in CIVETS.