Arrow-Debreu-modell és a Kornai-kritika harminc év után = The Arrow-Debreu Model and Kornai s critique, thirty years after

Több mint harminc év telt el Kornai János Anti-equilibrium című könyvének megjelenése óta. Ez volt az első mű a nemzetközi irodalomban, amely átfogóan bírálta az általános egyensúlyelméletet, mégpedig Debreu értékelméletén és az Arrow-Debreu modellen keresztül. A kritikára legélesebben Frank H. Hahn reagált, amire Kornai - fenntartva korábbi bírálatainak többségét - a közelmúltban megjelent önéletrajzában tért vissza. E cikkben elmélettörténeti előzményekkel együtt rekonstruáljuk a Kornai-Hahn-vita főbb pontjait, és megvizsgáljuk a kritikák és riposztok érvényességét. Látni fogjuk, hogy a legújabb közgazdasági elméletek nem mindenben igazolták Hahn ellenvetéseit. _______________ More than thirty years have passed since János Kornai s book Anti-Equilibrium appeared. This was the first work in international literature to criticize comprehensively the general theory of equilibrium, moreover through the value theory of Debreu and the Arrow-Debreu Model. The sharpest reaction to the criticism came from Frank H. Hahn, and Kornai returned to this in his recent autobiography. This article reconstructs the main points in the Kornai-Hahn debate, including its antecedents in the history of theory, and examines the validity of the criticisms and ripostes. It will be seen that Hahn s objections have not been endorsed in every respect by the latest economic theories.

Medical advice, diabetes self-management, and health outcomes of a multi-ethnic population from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007--2008

Diabetes self-management, an essential component of diabetes care, includes weight control practices and requires guidance from providers. Minorities are likely to have less access to quality health care than White non-Hispanics (WNH) (American College of Physicians-American Society of Internal Medicine, 2000). Medical advice received and understood may differ by race/ethnicity as a consequence of the patient-provider communication process; and, may affect diabetes self-management. ^ This study examined the relationships among participants’ report of: (1) medical advice given; (2) diabetes self-management, and; (3) health outcomes for Mexican-Americans (MA) and Black non-Hispanics (BNH) as compared to WNH (reference group) using data available through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for the years 2007–2008. This study was a secondary, single point analysis. Approximately 30 datasets were merged; and, the quality and integrity was assured by analysis of frequency, range and quartiles. The subjects were extracted based on the following inclusion criteria: belonging to either the MA, BNH or WNH categories; 21 years or older; responded yes to being diagnosed with diabetes. A final sample size of 654 adults [MA (131); BNH (223); WNH (300)] was used for the analyses. The findings revealed significant statistical differences in medical advice reported given. BNH [OR = 1.83 (1.16, 2.88), p = 0.013] were more likely than WNH to report being told to reduce fat or calories. Similarly, BNH [OR = 2.84 (1.45, 5.59), p = 0.005] were more likely than WNH to report that they were told to increase their physical activity. Mexican-Americans were less likely to self-monitor their blood glucose than WNH [OR = 2.70 (1.66, 4.38), p<0.001]. There were differences among ethnicities for reporting receiving recent diabetes education. Black, non-Hispanics were twice as likely to report receiving diabetes education than WNH [OR = 2.29 (1.36, 3.85), p = 0.004]. Medical advice reported given and ethnicity/race, together, predicted several health outcomes. Having recent diabetes education increased the likelihood of performing several diabetes self-management behaviors, independent of race. ^ These findings indicate a need for patient-provider communication and care to be assessed for effectiveness and, the importance of ongoing diabetes education for persons with diabetes.^

Peru’s Shining Path: Recent Dynamics and Future Prospects

Although soundly defeated in the early to mid-1990s, Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) did not disappear. Over the past five years, it has reemerged in a substantially different form, with both a military and a political component. The organization, once again coordinated by jailed leader Abimael Guzmán Reynoso, has eschewed shorter-term military objectives in favor of a longer-term strategy of slowly rebuilding popular support and establishing a party within the Peruvian political system. In so doing, it has also moved from extreme Maoist ideological rigidity to a more pragmatic, though perhaps only tactical, approach. Financial support is derived once again from cocaine production and trafficking in the Upper Huallaga Valley (UHV). Although there may be some individual exceptions, Shining Path is not a narcoterrorist organization. At the same time, Sendero is still very small, in no way a threat to the Peruvian state, and divided. The Lima-based political organization and the military wing in the UHV continue to follow Guzmán‟s leadership, while the Apurímac-Ene Valleys (VRAE) group remains committed to the armed struggle. The Government of Peru (GOP) response to date, both military and civilian, has been inadequate. VRAE military operations are hampered by poor leadership, ill-trained troops, and an outdated strategy. VRAE development resources have been cut, and the long-promised paved road remains in the planning stage. Without significant GOP adjustments, Shining Path is likely to continue to grow.

Raúl Castro's Government: Recent Economic Reforms and Some Political Considerations.

Four years after calling for structural and conceptual changes, Raúl Castro finally unveiled a roadmap of substantive economic reforms. Over the next 18 months, at least a million workers will be laid off from the bloated state sector. Alternative forms of earning a living – self-employment, cooperatives, leasing of land or physical space, among others – are being authorized as old constraints on these alternatives are rescinded. From the perspective of ordinary Cubans, these reforms – called an actualizaciόn, or an update of the economic model – were long overdue. Yet, in hindsight, the slow-paced process can be explained, not in terms of the need for time to “identify” Cuba’s economic problems which have been known for decades, but by Raúl Castro’s emphasis on la institucionalidad, the need to channel decision making through institutions. His brother left a chaotic state apparatus which first needed mending before an elite consensus on the reform package could be forged. Cuba is entering a situation without precedent: this package is likely to run its own course without the Comandante (Fidel Castro) stopping it. By 2015, Cuban society will probably look different than today, featuring unprecedented inequality and living standards that are on the rise.

Education policy and national income distribution: New evidence from recent cross -country data

In the mid 19th century, Horace Mann insisted that a broad provision of public schooling should take precedence over the liberal education of an elite group. In that regard, his generation constructed a state sponsored common schooling enterprise to educate the masses. More than 100 years later, the institution of public schooling fails to maintain an image fully representative of the ideals of equity and inclusion. Critical theory in educational thought associates the dominant practice of functional schooling with maintenance of the status quo, an unequal distribution of financial, political, and social resources. This study examined the empirical basis for the association of public schooling with the status quo using the most recent and comparable cross-country income inequality data. Multiple regression analysis evaluated the possible relationship between national income inequality change over the period 1985-2005 and variables representative of national measures of education supply in the prior decade. The estimated model of income inequality development attempted to quantify the relationship between education supply factors and subsequent income inequality developments by controlling for economic, demographic, and exogenous factors. The sample included all nations with comparable income inequality data over the measurement period, N = 56. Does public school supply affect national income distribution? The estimated model suggested that an increase in the average years of schooling among the population age 15 years or older, measured over the period 1975-1985, provided a mechanism that resulted in a more equal distribution of income over the period 1985-2005 among low and lower-middle income nations. The model also suggested that income inequality increased less or decreased more in smaller economies and when the percentage of the population age < 15 years grew more slowly over the period 1985-2000. In contrast, this study identified no significant relationship between school supply changes measured over prior periods and income inequality development over the period 1985-2005 among upper-middle and high income nations.

Social capital, HIV risk behavior and substance use among recent Latino immigrants in South Florida

Social capital, or social cohesion or group connectedness, can influence both HIV risk behavior and substance use. Because recent immigrants undergo a change in environment, one of the consequences can be a change in social capital. There may be an association among changes in social capital, and HIV risk behavior and substance use post immigration. The dissertation focused on the interface of these three variables among recent Latino immigrants (RLIs) in South Florida. The first manuscript is a systematic review of social capital and HIV risk behavior, and served as a partial background for the second and third manuscripts. Twelve papers with a measure of social capital as an independent variable and HIV risk as the dependent variable were included in the analysis. Eleven studies measured social capital at the individual level, and one study measured social capital at the group level. HIV risk was influenced by social capital, but the type of influence was dependent on the type of social capital and on the study population. Cognitive social capital, or levels of collective action, was protective against HIV in both men and women. The role of structural social capital, or levels of civic engagement/group participation, on HIV risk was dependent on the type of structural social capital and varied by gender. Microfinance programs and functional group participation were protective for women, while dysfunctional group participation and peer-level support may have increased HIV risk among men. The second manuscript was an original study assessing changes in social capital and HIV risk behavior pre to post immigration among RLIs in South Florida (n=527). HIV risk behavior was assessed through the frequency of vaginal-penile condom use, and the number of sexual partners. It was a longitudinal study using secondary data analysis to assess changes in social capital and HIV risk behavior pre immigration to two years post immigration, and to determine if there was a relationship between the two variables. There was an 8% decrease in total social capital (p < .05). Reporting of 'Never use' of condoms in the past 90 days increased in all subcategories (p < .05). Single men had a decrease in number of sexual partners (p < .05). Lower social capital measured on the dimension of 'friend and other' was marginally associated with fewer sexual partners. The third manuscript was another original study looking at the association between social capital and substance use among RLIs in South Florida (n=527). Substance use with measured by frequency of hazardous alcoholic drinking, and illicit drug use. It was a longitudinal study of social capital and substance-use from pre to two years post immigration. Post-immigration, social capital, hazardous drinking and illicit drug use decreased (p<.001). After adjusting for time, compared to males, females were less likely to engage in hazardous drinking (OR=.31, p<.001), and less likely to engage in illicit drug use (OR=.67, p=.01). Documentation status was a moderator between social capital and illicit drug use. 'Business' and 'Agency' social capital were associated with changes in illicit drug use for documented immigrants. After adjusting for gender and marital status, on average, documented immigrants with a one-unit increase in 'business' social capital were 1.2 times more likely to engage in illicit drug use (p<.01), and documented immigrants with one-unit increase in 'agency' social capital were 38% less likely to engage in illicit drug use (p<.01). 'Friend and other' social capital was associated with a decrease in illicit drug use among undocumented immigrants. After adjusting for gender and marital status, on average, undocumented immigrants with a one-unit increase in 'friend and other' social capital were 45% less likely to engage in hazardous drinking and 44% less likely to use illicit drugs (p<.01, p<.05). Studying these three domains is relevant because HIV continues to be a public health issue, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which is ranked among other U.S. regions with high rates of HIV/AIDS prevalence. Substance use is associated with HIV risk behavior; in most studies, increased substance use is associated with increased chances of HIV risk behavior. Immigration, which is the hypothesized catalyst for the change in social capital, has an impact on the dynamic of a society. Greater immigration can be burdensome on the host country's societal resources; however immigrants are also potentially a source of additional skilled labor for the workforce. Therefore, successful adaption of immigrants can have a positive influence on receiving communities. With Florida being a major receiver of immigrants to the U.S, this dissertation attempts to address an important public health issue for South Florida and the U.S. at large.

Compilation of planktonic foraminiferal census counts from the Southern Hemisphere Oceans

We present an improved database of planktonic foraminiferal census counts from the Southern Hemisphere Oceans (SHO) from 15°S to 64°S. The SHO database combines 3 existing databases. Using this SHO database, we investigated dissolution biases that might affect faunal census counts. We suggest a depth/[DCO3]2- threshold of ~3800 m/[DCO3]2- = ~-10 to -5 µmol/kg for the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and ~4000 m/[DCO3]2- = ~0 to 10 µmol/kg for the Atlantic Ocean, under which core-top assemblages can be affected by dissolution and are less reliable for paleo-sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions. We removed all core-tops beyond these thresholds from the SHO database. This database has 598 core-tops and is able to reconstruct past SST variations from 2° to 25.5°C, with a root mean square error of 1.00°C, for annual temperatures. To inspect dissolution affects SST reconstruction quality, we tested the data base with two "leave-one-out" tests, with and without the deep core-tops. We used this database to reconstruct Summer SST (SSST) over the last 20 ka, using the Modern Analog Technique method, on the Southeast Pacific core MD07-3100. This was compared to the SSST reconstructed using the 3 databases used to compile the SHO database. Thus showing that the reconstruction using the SHO database is more reliable, as its dissimilarity values are the lowest. The most important aspect here is the importance of a bias-free, geographic-rich, database. We leave this dataset open-ended to future additions; the new core-tops must be carefully selected, with their chronological frameworks, and evidence of dissolution assessed.

Peatland depths and radiocarbon dates, recent decades, North America

Peatland ecosystems store about 500-600 Pg of organic carbon, largely accumulated since the last glaciation. Whether they continue to sequester carbon or release it as greenhouse gases, perhaps in large amounts, is important in Earth's temperature dynamics. Given both ages and depths of numerous dated sample peatlands, their rate of carbon sequestration can be estimated throughout the Holocene. Here we use average values for carbon content per unit volume, the geographical extent of peatlands, and ecological models of peatland establishment and growth, to reconstruct the time-trajectory of peatland carbon sequestration in North America and project it into the future. Peatlands there contain ~163 Pg of carbon. Ignoring effects of climate change and other major anthropogenic disturbances, the rate of carbon accumulation is projected to decline slowly over millennia as reduced net carbon accumulation in existing peatlands is largely balanced by new peatland establishment. Peatlands are one of few long-term terrestrial carbon sinks, probably important for global carbon regulation in future generations. This study contributes to a better understanding of these ecosystems that will assist their inclusion in earth-system models, and therefore their management to maintain carbon storage during climate change.

Follow-up of the sponge and asteroid populations at the station Larsen A south (PS69/724-1 and PS77/253-1), Antarctic Peninsula, between 2007 and 2011

Over 30% of the Antarctic continental shelf is permanently covered by floating ice shelves, providing aphotic conditions for a depauperate fauna sustained by laterally advected food. In much of the remaining Antarctic shallows (<300 m depth), seasonal sea-ice melting allows a patchy primary production supporting rich megabenthic communities dominated by glass sponges (Porifera, Hexactinellida). The catastrophic collapse of ice shelves due to rapid regional warming along the Antarctic Peninsula in recent decades has exposed over 23,000 km**2 of seafloor to local primary production. The response of the benthos to this unprecedented flux of food is, however, still unknown. In 2007, 12 years after disintegration of the Larsen A ice shelf, a first biological survey interpreted the presence of hexactinellids as remnants of a former under-ice fauna with deep-sea characteristics. Four years later, we revisited the original transect, finding 2- and 3-fold increases in glass sponge biomass and abundance, respectively, after only two favorable growth periods. Our findings, along with other long-term studies, suggest that Antarctic hexactinellids, locked in arrested growth for decades, may undergo boom-and-bust cycles, allowing them to quickly colonize new habitats. The cues triggering growth and reproduction in Antarctic glass sponges remain enigmatic.

Oceanographic investiations from the Sea of Ochotsk

The Sea of Okhotsk is a marginal sea of the Pacific Ocean, which is characterized by strong variations in the productivity and sediment supply due to sea ice transport and river input. Furthermore the variations in the hydrological cycle determine the formation of the SOIW (Sea of Okhotsk Intermediate Water) which plays an important role in the ventilation processes in the intermediate water of the N-Pacific. Isotope data measured on planktonic and benthic foraminifera, sedimentological and geochemical studies of sediment cores and surface samples from the Sea of Okhotsk are used to reconstruct the paleoceanography during the past 350.000 years. The dating and correlation of the sediments are based on oxygen isotope stratigraphy, absolute ages, magnetic susceptibility as well as a detailled tephrachronology of the entire basin. The sedimentation rates are characterized by temporal and spatial variations. The maximum sedimentation rate takes place at the continental slope off Sakhalin due to the input of the Amur River, the sea ice drift and the high productivity. The sedimentation rate in the eastern part of the Sea of Okhotsk is generelly high because of the influence of the nutrient-rich Kamchatka Current. In the central and northern parts of the Sea of Okhotsk, areas with low productivity and reduced terrestrial supply, the sedimentation rate is the lowest. The analyses of the surface sediment samples make it possible to characterize the (sub)- recent sediment supply and transportation processes. The bulk sediment measurements, isotope data and the accumulation rate of ice-rafted debris (IRD) show a dominant sea ice cover and a region with a high productivity as well as a high Amur River input in the western part of the sea. The eastern part of the Sea of Okhotsk, however, is marked by the predominance of warm and nutrient-rich water masses coming from the Kamchatka Current which restricts the sea ice cover. This is reflected in low content of ice-rafted debris and high productivity proxies as well as in isotope data. The deposits of the Sea of Okhotsk are characterized by terrestrial, biogenic and volcanogenic sediment input which varies temporally and spatially. Here, the sedimentation pattern is dominated by the terrestrial input. Bulk sediment measurements and sample analyses of the > 63 micron particle input make it possible to distinguish glacial and interglacial fluctuations. The sedimentation processes during glacial times are determined by a high content of ice-rafted debris, whereas the primary production is higher during interglacial periods. During the last glacial/interglacial cycle the IRD-distribution pattern indicates a strong sea ice transport in the western part and in large areas of the open sea in the eastern part of the Sea of Okhotsk with a relatively constant ice-drift system. The IRD flux in sediments of the oxygen isotope Stage 6 reflects a new sedimentation pattern in the eastern part of the sea. This high IRD accumulation rate indicates ice advances beyond the shelf margin and an iceberg transport from NE-E direction into the Sea of Okhotsk. The several large, brief, negative anomalies in d13C values of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (s) show releases of methane from basin sediments which correspond to periods of relative sea level falls. The high sedimentation rates on the Sakhalin slope allow insights into the climatic history in Holocene and indicate shorter-scale variations oscillation in Stage 3, which correlate with the global climatic changes. These variations are described as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in Greenland ice cores and as Heinrich-Events in several marine sediment cores from the N-Atlantic.

30 years of upper air soundings on board of R/V POLARSTERN (1982-12-29 to 2012-11-25)

The research vessel and supply icebreaker POLARSTERN is the flagship of the Alfred-Wegener-Institut in Bremerhaven (Germany) and one of the infrastructural pillars of German Antarctic research. Since its commissioning in 1982, POLARSTERN has conducted 30 campaigns to Antarctica (157 legs, mostly austral summer), and 29 to the Arctic (94 legs, northern summer). Usually, POLARSTERN is more than 300 days per year in operation and crosses the Atlantic Ocean in a meridional section twice a year. The first radiosonde on POLARSTERN was released on the 29th of December 1982, two days after POLARSTERN started on its maiden voyage to the Antarctic. And these daily soundings have continued up to the present. Due to the fact that POLARSTERN has reliably and regularly been providing upper air observations from data sparse regions (oceans and polar regions), the radiosonde data are of special value for researchers and weather forecast services alike. In the course of 30 years (1982-12-29 to 2012-11-25) a total of 12378 radiosonde balloons were started on POLARSTERN. All radiosonde data can now be found here. Each dataset contains the directly measured parameters air temperature, relative humidity and air pressure, and the derived altitude, wind direction and wind speed. 432 datasets additionally contain ozone measurements.

Location and ages of terrestrial peatlands located on continental shelves and in coastal sediments

This synthesis dataset contains records of freshwater peat and lake sediments from continental shelves and coastal areas. Information included is site location (when available), thickness and description of terrestrial sediments as well as underlying and overlying sediments, dates (when available), and references.

Recent Changes in Central and Eastern Pacific El Niño

Recent research indicates that characteristics of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have changed over the past several decades. Here, I examined different flavors of El Niño in the observational record and the recent changes in the character of El Niño events. The fundamental physical processes that drive ENSO were described and the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types or flavors of El Niño were defined. Using metrics from the peer-reviewed literature, I examined several historical data sets to interpret El Niño behavior from 1950-2010. A Monte Carlo Simulation was then applied to output from coupled model simulations to test the statistical significance of recent observations surrounding EP and CP El Niño. Results suggested that EP and CP El Niño had been occurring in a similar fashion over the past 60 years with natural variability, but no significant increase in CP El Niño behavior.

Paleoclimate investiations on sediment core PG1984 from Lake Sysy-Kyuele, northern Siberia

In northeastern Siberia, Russia, a 1.2 m sediment core was retrieved and radiocarbon dated from a small and shallow lake located at the western side of the lower Lena River (N 69°24', E 123°50', 81 m a.s.l.). The objective of this paper is to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental variability and to infer major palaeoclimate trends that have occurred since ~ 13.3 cal. kyrs BP. We analysed the diatom assemblages, sedimentology (grain size, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN)), and the elemental and mineralogical composition using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and X-ray diffractometry (XRD) of the sediment core. Our results show parallel changes in the diatom species composition and sediment characteristics. Enhanced minerogenic sediment input and the occurrence of pyrite is indicative of a cold period between ~ 12.7-11.6 cal. kyrs BP. The diatom data enable a qualitative inference about the local ecological conditions to be made, and reveal an oligotrophic lake system with alkaline and cold conditions during the earliest Holocene. Moderately warmer climates are inferred for the period from ~ 9.1 to 5.7 cal. kyrs BP. The major shift in the diatom assemblage, from dominance of small benthic fragilarioid taxa to a more complex diatom flora with an influx of several achnanthoid and naviculoid diatom species, occurred after a transitional period of about 1400 years (7.1 to 5.7 cal. kyrs BP) at ~ 5.7 cal. kyrs BP, indicating a circumneutral and warmer hydrological regime during the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). Diatom valve concentrations declined starting ~ 2.8 cal. kyrs BP, but have been rising again since less than or equalt to 600 cal. years BP. This has occurred in parallel to the increased presence of acidophilous diatom taxa (e.g. Eunotia spp.) and decreased presence of small benthic fragilarioid species in the most recent sediments, which is interpreted as the result of neoglacial cooling and subsequent recent climate warming. Our findings are compared to other lake-inferred climate reconstructions along the Lena River. We conclude that the timing and spatial variability of the HTM in the lower Lena River area reveal a temporal delay from north to south.

Firn line elevation of the Dickson Land peninsula

The Dickson Land peninsula is located in central West-Spitsbergen between the NNE branches of Isfjorden. The climatic firn line lying at 500 m causes plateau glaciers with outlet tongues which are characteristic of S-Dickson Land. The distribution of valley glaciers and the variations of the orographic firn line depend on wind direction. In comparing the firn lines established by the methods of LICHTENECKER (1938) and VISSER (1938), to the values calculated by the method of v. HÖFER (1879), differences of up to l07 m are found. These differences may depend on the inclination and distance relationships of the glaciers above and below the real firn lines. During the latest glacial advance, Dickson Land was located on the peripheries of two local glaciation centers. At that time an inland glaciation of West-Spitsbergen did not exist . The formation of a subglacial channel system dates back to the maximum extent of the late glacial phase before 17500 B.P, (+2000/-1375 years). A correlation of postglacial stadia and 14C dated marine terraces (FEYLING-HANSSEN & OLSSON, 1960; FEYLING-HANSSEN, 1965) is possible. Considering isostatic movement and the difference between calculated and real firn lines, a postglacial stadium at about 10400 B. P. can be reconstructed with a firn line lying 265 m above former sea level. On average, the absolute depression below the recent firn line amounted to 246 m. Stagnation at 9650 B.P. coincided with a firn line at 315 m above former sea level and a depression of 173 m. Around 1890 A.D., glacial fluctuations corresponded to a firn line at 415 m (depression: 64 m). To some extent the morphology of the main valleys appears to depend on structure and petrography. Therefore their value as indicators of former glaciations is questionable. The periglacial forms are shown on a large-scale map. At the time of the "Holocene warm interval", between 7000 and 2000 B.P. (FEYLING-HANSSEN, 1955a, 1965), an increase of periglacial activity seems likely. This can be explained by a simultaneous increase in the depth of the active layer in both soil and bedrock.