Customer Evolution in Sales Channel Migration

This research has been triggered by an emergent trend in customer behavior: customers have rapidly expanded their channel experiences and preferences beyond traditional channels (such as stores) and they expect the company with which they do business to have a presence on all these channels. This evidence has produced an increasing interest in multichannel customer behavior and it has motivated several researchers to study the customers’ channel choices dynamics in multichannel environment. We study how the consumer decision process for channel choice and response to marketing communications evolves for a cohort of new customers. We assume a newly acquired customer’s decisions are described by a “trial” model, but the customer’s choice process evolves to a “post-trial” model as the customer learns his or her preferences and becomes familiar with the firm’s marketing efforts. The trial and post-trial decision processes are each described by different multinomial logit choice models, and the evolution from the trial to post-trial model is determined by a customer-level geometric distribution that captures the time it takes for the customer to make the transition. We utilize data for a major retailer who sells in three channels – retail store, the Internet, and via catalog. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods that allow for cross-customer heterogeneity. This allows us to have distinct parameters estimates for a trial and an after trial stages and to estimate the quickness of this transit at the individual level. The results show for example that the customer decision process indeed does evolve over time. Customers differ in the duration of the trial period and marketing has a different impact on channel choice in the trial and post-trial stages. Furthermore, we show that some people switch channel decision processes while others don’t and we found that several factors have an impact on the probability to switch decision process. Insights from this study can help managers tailor their marketing communication strategy as customers gain channel choice experience. Managers may also have insights on the timing of the direct marketing communications. They can predict the duration of the trial phase at individual level detecting the customers with a quick, long or even absent trial phase. They can even predict if the customer will change or not his decision process over time, and they can influence the switching process using specific marketing tools

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

Ein inverses Problem für die degeneriert parabolische Richardsgleichung

In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden zwei physikalischeFließexperimente an Vliesstoffen untersucht, die dazu dienensollen, unbekannte hydraulische Parameter des Materials, wiez. B. die Diffusivitäts- oder Leitfähigkeitsfunktion, ausMeßdaten zu identifizieren. Die physikalische undmathematische Modellierung dieser Experimente führt auf einCauchy-Dirichlet-Problem mit freiem Rand für die degeneriertparabolische Richardsgleichung in derSättigungsformulierung, das sogenannte direkte Problem. Ausder Kenntnis des freien Randes dieses Problems soll dernichtlineare Diffusivitätskoeffizient derDifferentialgleichung rekonstruiert werden. Für diesesinverse Problem stellen wir einOutput-Least-Squares-Funktional auf und verwenden zu dessenMinimierung iterative Regularisierungsverfahren wie dasLevenberg-Marquardt-Verfahren und die IRGN-Methode basierendauf einer Parametrisierung des Koeffizientenraumes durchquadratische B-Splines. Für das direkte Problem beweisen wirunter anderem Existenz und Eindeutigkeit der Lösung desCauchy-Dirichlet-Problems sowie die Existenz des freienRandes. Anschließend führen wir formal die Ableitung desfreien Randes nach dem Koeffizienten, die wir für dasnumerische Rekonstruktionsverfahren benötigen, auf einlinear degeneriert parabolisches Randwertproblem zurück.Wir erläutern die numerische Umsetzung und Implementierungunseres Rekonstruktionsverfahrens und stellen abschließendRekonstruktionsergebnisse bezüglich synthetischer Daten vor.

Funzioni zeta e fattorizzazione unica in anelli quadratici di curve su campi finiti

In questa tesi si esaminano alcune questioni riguardanti le curve definite su campi finiti. Nella prima parte si affronta il problema della determinazione del numero di punti per curve regolari. Nella seconda parte si studia il numero di classi di ideali dell’anello delle coordinate di curve piane definite da polinomi assolutamente irriducibili, per ottenere, nel caso delle curve ellittiche, risultati analoghi alla classica formula di Dirichlet per il numero di classi dei campi quadratici e delle congetture di Gauss.

Die Faktorisierungsmethode für die elektrische Impedanztomographie im Halbraum

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die Faktorisierungsmethode zur Erkennung von Inhomogenitäten der Leitfähigkeit in der elektrischen Impedanztomographie auf unbeschränkten Gebieten - speziell der Halbebene bzw. dem Halbraum - untersucht. Als Lösungsräume für das direkte Problem, d.h. die Bestimmung des elektrischen Potentials zu vorgegebener Leitfähigkeit und zu vorgegebenem Randstrom, führen wir gewichtete Sobolev-Räume ein. In diesen wird die Existenz von schwachen Lösungen des direkten Problems gezeigt und die Gültigkeit einer Integraldarstellung für die Lösung der Laplace-Gleichung, die man bei homogener Leitfähigkeit erhält, bewiesen. Mittels der Faktorisierungsmethode geben wir eine explizite Charakterisierung von Einschlüssen an, die gegenüber dem Hintergrund eine sprunghaft erhöhte oder erniedrigte Leitfähigkeit haben. Damit ist zugleich für diese Klasse von Leitfähigkeiten die eindeutige Rekonstruierbarkeit der Einschlüsse bei Kenntnis der lokalen Neumann-Dirichlet-Abbildung gezeigt. Die mittels der Faktorisierungsmethode erhaltene Charakterisierung der Einschlüsse haben wir in ein numerisches Verfahren umgesetzt und sowohl im zwei- als auch im dreidimensionalen Fall mit simulierten, teilweise gestörten Daten getestet. Im Gegensatz zu anderen bekannten Rekonstruktionsverfahren benötigt das hier vorgestellte keine Vorabinformation über Anzahl und Form der Einschlüsse und hat als nicht-iteratives Verfahren einen vergleichsweise geringen Rechenaufwand.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

Comparing Different Approaches for Clustering Categorical Data

There are different ways to do cluster analysis of categorical data in the literature and the choice among them is strongly related to the aim of the researcher, if we do not take into account time and economical constraints. Main approaches for clustering are usually distinguished into model-based and distance-based methods: the former assume that objects belonging to the same class are similar in the sense that their observed values come from the same probability distribution, whose parameters are unknown and need to be estimated; the latter evaluate distances among objects by a defined dissimilarity measure and, basing on it, allocate units to the closest group. In clustering, one may be interested in the classification of similar objects into groups, and one may be interested in finding observations that come from the same true homogeneous distribution. But do both of these aims lead to the same clustering? And how good are clustering methods designed to fulfil one of these aims in terms of the other? In order to answer, two approaches, namely a latent class model (mixture of multinomial distributions) and a partition around medoids one, are evaluated and compared by Adjusted Rand Index, Average Silhouette Width and Pearson-Gamma indexes in a fairly wide simulation study. Simulation outcomes are plotted in bi-dimensional graphs via Multidimensional Scaling; size of points is proportional to the number of points that overlap and different colours are used according to the cluster membership.

Pseudodifferential operators on Hilbert space riggings with associated psi *-algebras and generalized Hörmander classes

The present thesis is concerned with certain aspects of differential and pseudodifferential operators on infinite dimensional spaces. We aim to generalize classical operator theoretical concepts of pseudodifferential operators on finite dimensional spaces to the infinite dimensional case. At first we summarize some facts about the canonical Gaussian measures on infinite dimensional Hilbert space riggings. Considering the naturally unitary group actions in $L^2(H_-,gamma)$ given by weighted shifts and multiplication with $e^{iSkp{t}{cdot}_0}$ we obtain an unitary equivalence $F$ between them. In this sense $F$ can be considered as an abstract Fourier transform. We show that $F$ coincides with the Fourier-Wiener transform. Using the Fourier-Wiener transform we define pseudodifferential operators in Weyl- and Kohn-Nirenberg form on our Hilbert space rigging. In the case of this Gaussian measure $gamma$ we discuss several possible Laplacians, at first the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operator and then pseudo-differential operators with negative definite symbol. In the second case, these operators are generators of $L^2_gamma$-sub-Markovian semi-groups and $L^2_gamma$-Dirichlet-forms. In 1992 Gramsch, Ueberberg and Wagner described a construction of generalized Hörmander classes by commutator methods. Following this concept and the classical finite dimensional description of $Psi_{ro,delta}^0$ ($0leqdeltaleqroleq 1$, $delta< 1$) in the $C^*$-algebra $L(L^2)$ by Beals and Cordes we construct in both cases generalized Hörmander classes, which are $Psi^*$-algebras. These classes act on a scale of Sobolev spaces, generated by our Laplacian. In the case of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operator, we prove that a large class of continuous pseudodifferential operators considered by Albeverio and Dalecky in 1998 is contained in our generalized Hörmander class. Furthermore, in the case of a Laplacian with negative definite symbol, we develop a symbolic calculus for our operators. We show some Fredholm-criteria for them and prove that these Fredholm-operators are hypoelliptic. Moreover, in the finite dimensional case, using the Gaussian-measure instead of the Lebesgue-measure the index of these Fredholm operators is still given by Fedosov's formula. Considering an infinite dimensional Heisenberg group rigging we discuss the connection of some representations of the Heisenberg group to pseudo-differential operators on infinite dimensional spaces. We use this connections to calculate the spectrum of pseudodifferential operators and to construct generalized Hörmander classes given by smooth elements which are spectrally invariant in $L^2(H_-,gamma)$. Finally, given a topological space $X$ with Borel measure $mu$, a locally compact group $G$ and a representation $B$ of $G$ in the group of all homeomorphisms of $X$, we construct a Borel measure $mu_s$ on $X$ which is invariant under $B(G)$.

Harnack inequalities in sub-Riemannian settings

In the present thesis, we discuss the main notions of an axiomatic approach for an invariant Harnack inequality. This procedure, originated from techniques for fully nonlinear elliptic operators, has been developed by Di Fazio, Gutiérrez, and Lanconelli in the general settings of doubling Hölder quasi-metric spaces. The main tools of the approach are the so-called double ball property and critical density property: the validity of these properties implies an invariant Harnack inequality. We are mainly interested in the horizontally elliptic operators, i.e. some second order linear degenerate-elliptic operators which are elliptic with respect to the horizontal directions of a Carnot group. An invariant Harnack inequality of Krylov-Safonov type is still an open problem in this context. In the thesis we show how the double ball property is related to the solvability of a kind of exterior Dirichlet problem for these operators. More precisely, it is a consequence of the existence of some suitable interior barrier functions of Bouligand-type. By following these ideas, we prove the double ball property for a generic step two Carnot group. Regarding the critical density, we generalize to the setting of H-type groups some arguments by Gutiérrez and Tournier for the Heisenberg group. We recognize that the critical density holds true in these peculiar contexts by assuming a Cordes-Landis type condition for the coefficient matrix of the operator. By the axiomatic approach, we thus prove an invariant Harnack inequality in H-type groups which is uniform in the class of the coefficient matrices with prescribed bounds for the eigenvalues and satisfying such a Cordes-Landis condition.

Teoria spettrale in spazi di Hilbert

In questa tesi ci si occuperà di presentare alcuni aspetti salienti della teoria spettrale per gli operatori limitati negli spazi di Hilbert. Nel primo capitolo verranno presentate alcune nozioni fondamentali di analisi funzionale, necessarie per lo studio degli operatori. Il secondo capitolo si occupa invece di analizzare la teoria spettrale per operatori compatti. In particolare, verrà presentato il Teorema Spettrale per Operatori Normali Compatti e il Teorema dell'Alternativa di Fredholm. In seguito verrà applicata tale teoria alla risolubilità del problema di Dirichlet. Nel terzo capitolo verrà esteso quanto ottenuto per gli operatori compatti ad operatori limitati autoaggiunti e per gli operatori normali limitati, passando attraverso le famiglie spettrali.

Formula integrale di Poisson per le funzioni armoniche in una palla

La tesi consiste nella ricerca di un candidato ideale per la soluzione del problema di Dirichlet. Vengono affrontati gli argomenti in maniera graduale, partendo dalle funzioni armoniche e le loro relative proprietà, passando per le identità e le formule di rappresentazione di Green, per finire nell'analisi del problema sopra citato, mediante i risultati precedentemente ottenuti, per concludere trovando la formula integrale di Poisson come soluzione ma anche come formula generale per sviluppi in vari ambiti.

Potential Analysis for Hypoelliptic Second Order PDEs with Nonnegative Characteristic Form

In this Thesis we consider a class of second order partial differential operators with non-negative characteristic form and with smooth coefficients. Main assumptions on the relevant operators are hypoellipticity and existence of a well-behaved global fundamental solution. We first make a deep analysis of the L-Green function for arbitrary open sets and of its applications to the Representation Theorems of Riesz-type for L-subharmonic and L-superharmonic functions. Then, we prove an Inverse Mean value Theorem characterizing the superlevel sets of the fundamental solution by means of L-harmonic functions. Furthermore, we establish a Lebesgue-type result showing the role of the mean-integal operator in solving the homogeneus Dirichlet problem related to L in the Perron-Wiener sense. Finally, we compare Perron-Wiener and weak variational solutions of the homogeneous Dirichlet problem, under specific hypothesis on the boundary datum.

Representation theorems for indefinite quadratic forms and applications

Diese Arbeit widmet sich den Darstellungssätzen für symmetrische indefinite (das heißt nicht-halbbeschränkte) Sesquilinearformen und deren Anwendungen. Insbesondere betrachten wir den Fall, dass der zur Form assoziierte Operator keine Spektrallücke um Null besitzt. Desweiteren untersuchen wir die Beziehung zwischen reduzierenden Graphräumen, Lösungen von Operator-Riccati-Gleichungen und der Block-Diagonalisierung für diagonaldominante Block-Operator-Matrizen. Mit Hilfe der Darstellungssätze wird eine entsprechende Beziehung zwischen Operatoren, die zu indefiniten Formen assoziiert sind, und Form-Riccati-Gleichungen erreicht. In diesem Rahmen wird eine explizite Block-Diagonalisierung und eine Spektralzerlegung für den Stokes Operator sowie eine Darstellung für dessen Kern erreicht. Wir wenden die Darstellungssätze auf durch (grad u, h() grad v) gegebene Formen an, wobei Vorzeichen-indefinite Koeffzienten-Matrizen h() zugelassen sind. Als ein Resultat werden selbstadjungierte indefinite Differentialoperatoren div h() grad mit homogenen Dirichlet oder Neumann Randbedingungen konstruiert. Beispiele solcher Art sind Operatoren die in der Modellierung von optischen Metamaterialien auftauchen und links-indefinite Sturm-Liouville Operatoren.