Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Strike hard, strike sure - Operation Musketeer : British military planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

Operation Musketeer, a combined joint Anglo-French operation aimed at regaining control of the Suez Canal in 1956, has received much attention from scholars. The most common approach to the crisis has been to examine the political dimension. The political events that led Prime Minister Anthony Eden’s cabinet to decide to use military force against the wishes of their superior American ally and in the face of American economic pressure and a Soviet threat to attack Paris and London with rockets have been analysed thoroughly. This is particularly the case because the ceasefire and eventual withdrawal were an indisputable defeat of British policy in the Middle East. The military operation not only ruined Prime Minister Eden’s career, but it also diminished the prestige of Britain. It was the beginning of the end, some claim. The British Empire would never be the same. As the consequences of using force are generally considered more important than the military operations themselves, very little attention has been paid to the military planning of Operation Musketeer. The difference between the number of publications on Operation Corporate of the Falklands War and Operation Musketeer is striking. Not only has there been little previous research on the military aspects of Musketeer, the conclusions drawn in the existing works have not reached a consensus. Some historians, such as Correlli Barnett, compare Musketeer to the utter failures of the Tudor landings and Gallipoli. Among significant politicians, Winston Churchill, who had retired from the prime ministership only a year before the Suez Crisis, described the operation as “the most ill-conceived and ill-executed imaginable”. Colin McInnes, a well-known author on British defence policy, represents the middle view when he describes the execution as “far from failure”. Finally, some, like Julian Thompson, the Commander of 3 Commando Brigade during the Falklands War, rate the military action itself as being successful. The interpretation of how successful the handling of the Suez Crisis was from the military point of view depends very much on the approach taken and the areas emphasised in the subject. Frequently, military operations are analysed in isolation from other events. The action of a country’s armed forces is separated from the wider context and evaluated without a solid point of comparison. Political consequences are often used as validated criteria, and complicated factors contributing to military performance are ignored. The lack of comprehensive research on the military action has left room for an analysis concentrating on the military side of the crisis.

Identification, assessment and ordering of concepts for agro-energy planning and possibilities of spatial analysis

ABSTRACT The present study aims to present the main concepts of the sugarcane straw to energy planning. Throughout the study, the subject is contextualized highlighting broader aspects of sustainability, which is considered the main driver towards agro-energy modernization. Concerning sugarcane straw, we first evaluated its availability regarding technical and economic aspects, and then it summarized the straw production chain for energy supply purposes. As a proposal to support agro-energy planning, it is presented some spatial tools that have been barely used in the Brazilian energy planning context so far. Therefore, working on straw to electricity associated with supply chain basis, we developed a conceptual model to spatially assess this bioenergy system. Using the model proposed, it is described the whole supply chain at state level, which accounted the potential of a single mill to explore straw, as well as main costs associated with straw acquisition, investments on the straw recovery routes and electricity transmission. Bearing these concepts in mind, it is fully believed that spatial analysis can bring important information for agro-energy action plans.

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN CREATING SUSTAINABILITY VALUE FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN 2020 : a scenario planning approach

The growing importance of global sustainability issues has been causing many changes to the financial services industry. Facts such as climate change, social development and the financial crisis in 2008 have been making banks reconsider the manner that they consider environmental, social and economic factors in their decision-making process. At the same time, information technology (IT) has been transforming the financial service industry and its fast development has casted doubts on the way it should be managed within an organization. This current changing environment brings a number of uncertainties to the future that cannot be addressed using traditional forecasting techniques. This research investigates how IT can bring value to sustainability in the financial service industry in 2020. Through the use of a scenario planning technique, we analyzed how trends in the current environment (considering the relation between sustainability, financial institutions an IT) can lead to four different future scenarios. Then, we discussed how IT can improve a bank’s sustainability performance, considering the limitations of each scenario.

Imaging of Tumour Microenvironment for the Planning of Oncological Therapies Using Positron Emission Tomography

Tumour cells differ from normal tissue cells in several important ways. These differences, like for example changed energy metabolism, result in altered microenvironment of malignant tumours. Non-invasive imaging of tumour microenvironment has been at the centre of intense research recently due to the important role that this changed environement plays in the development of malignant tumours and due to the role it plays in the treatment of these tumours. In this respect, perhaps the most important characteristics of the tumour microenvironment from this point of view are the lack of oxygen or hypoxia and changes in blood flow (BF). The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the processes of energy metabolism, BF and oxygenation in head and neck cancer and pancreatic tumours and to explore the possibilities of improving the methods for their quantification using positron emission tomography (PET). To this end [18F]EF5, a new PET tracer for detection of tumour hypoxia was investigated. Favourable uptake properties of the tracer were observed. In addition, it was established that the uptake of this tracer does not correlate with the uptake of existing tracers for the imaging of energy metabolism and BF, so the information about the presence of tissue hypoxia cannot therefore be obtained using tracers such as [18F]FDG or [15O]H2O. These results were complemented by the results of the follow-up study in which it was shown that the uptake of [18F]EF5 in head and neck tumours prior to treatment is also associated with the overall survival of the patients, indicating that tumour hypoxia is a negative prognostic factor and might be associated with therapeutic resistance. The influences of energy metabolism and BF on the survival of patients with pancreatic cancer were investigated in the second study. The results indicate that the best predictor of survival of patients with pancreatic cancer is the relationship between energy metabolism and BF. These results suggest that the cells with high metabolic activity in a hypoperfused tissue have the most aggressive phenotype.

Dynamic optimization for the trajectory planning of robot manipulators in the presence of obstacles

This paper presents an approach to the solution of moving a robot manipulator with minimum cost along a specified geometric path in the presence of obstacles. The main idea is to express obstacle avoidance in terms of the distances between potentially colliding parts. The optimal traveling time and the minimum mechanical energy of the actuators are considered together to build a multiobjective function. A simple numerical example involving a Cartesian manipulator arm with two-degree-of-freedom is described.

Profitability planning of the ski resort project

Objective of this master’s thesis is to create an investment calculation model, which makes it possible to determine if the ski resort business can be profitable. The ultimate goal is to create a description with the help of theoretical knowledge, interviews and investment calculation model, how the operation of ski resort is possible to be profitable and what are the critical success factors for achieving this goal. Thesis is carried out as qualitative research, which is supported by the necessary constructive information utilizing calculations. The client company has provided valuable insights and material for this thesis. Theoretical report examines the steps of developing a business plan, investment components and methods as well as sensitivity analysis. The theoretical part is based on the articles, textbooks, interviews and researches. The empirical part of the thesis is assembled by benchmarking other same size Finnish ski resorts, conducting interviews and using investment calculation model. The empirical part provides comprehensive information about ski resort industry, the future of the project, the business plan and the profitability calculations. As the result of this thesis the investment calculation model, which makes it possible to simulate different scenarios for ski resort project, was formed. The model was used to create a picture in which kind of scenario the ski resort business would be profitable and what are the critical success factors in achieving this aim.

Planning and implementation of entrepreneurial marketing processes in SMEs

Entrepreneurial marketing is newly established term and there is need for more specific studies in order to understand the concept fully. SMEs have entrepreneurial marketing elements more visible in their marketing and therefore provide more fruitful insights for this research. SMEs marketing has gained more recognition during the past years and in some cases innovative characteristics can be identified despite constraints such as lack of certain resources. The purpose of this research is to study entrepreneurial marketing characteristics and SME processes in order to wider understanding and gain more insights of entrepreneurial marketing. In addition, planning and implementation of entrepreneurial marketing processes is examined in order to gain full coverage of SMEs marketing activities. The research was conducted as a qualitative research and data gathering was based on semi-structured interview survey, which involved nine company interviews. Multiple case research was used to analyze data so that focus and clarity could be maintained in organized manner. Case companies were chosen from different business fields so that more variation and insights could be identified. The empirical results suggest that two examined processes networking and word-of-mouth communication are very important processes for case companies which supports the previous researches. However, the entrepreneurial marketing characteristics had variation some were more visible and recognizable than others. Examining more closely the processes companies did not fully understand that networking or word-of-mouth marketing could be used as efficiently as other conventional marketing methods.

Production planning and optimization of a pulp mill: introduction of the optimisation based scheduling software for pulp industry

The objective of this project was to introduce a new software product to pulp industry, a new market for case company. An optimization based scheduling tool has been developed to allow pulp operations to better control their production processes and improve both production efficiency and stability. Both the work here and earlier research indicates that there is a potential for savings around 1-5%. All the supporting data is available today coming from distributed control systems, data historians and other existing sources. The pulp mill model together with the scheduler, allows what-if analyses of the impacts and timely feasibility of various external actions such as planned maintenance of any particular mill operation. The visibility gained from the model proves also to be a real benefit. The aim is to satisfy demand and gain extra profit, while achieving the required customer service level. Research effort has been put both in understanding the minimum features needed to satisfy the scheduling requirements in the industry and the overall existence of the market. A qualitative study was constructed to both identify competitive situation and the requirements vs. gaps on the market. It becomes clear that there is no such system on the marketplace today and also that there is room to improve target market overall process efficiency through such planning tool. This thesis also provides better overall understanding of the different processes in this particular industry for the case company.

Strategic planning of major disturbance proof network

In the 2000’s Finland suffered from storms that caused long outages in electricity distribution, longest up to two weeks. These major disturbances increased the importance of supply security. In 2013 new Electricity Market Act was announced. It defined maximum duration for outages, 6 h for city plan areas and 36 h for other areas. The aim for this work is to determine required major disturbance proof level for a study area and find tools for prioritizing overhead lines for cabling renovation to improve supply security. Three prioritization methods were chosen to be studied: A: prioritization line sections by customer outage costs they cause, B: maximizing customers major disturbance proof network and C: minimizing excavation costs in medium voltage network. Profitability calculations showed that prioritization method A was the most profitable and C had the weakest profitability. The prioritization method C drove renovation into unreasonable locations in the study area in reliability point of view. Therefore universal rule prioritization methods couldn’t be made from the prioritization methods. This led to the conclusion that every renewing area need to be evaluated in a case by case basis.

Stiffness based trajectory planning and feedforward based vibration suppression control of parallel robot machines

The dissertation proposes two control strategies, which include the trajectory planning and vibration suppression, for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, with the aim of attaining the satisfactory machining performance. For a given prescribed trajectory of the robot's end-effector in the Cartesian space, a set of trajectories in the robot's joint space are generated based on the best stiffness performance of the robot along the prescribed trajectory. To construct the required system-wide analytical stiffness model for the serial-parallel robot machine, a variant of the virtual joint method (VJM) is proposed in the dissertation. The modified method is an evolution of Gosselin's lumped model that can account for the deformations of a flexible link in more directions. The effectiveness of this VJM variant is validated by comparing the computed stiffness results of a flexible link with the those of a matrix structural analysis (MSA) method. The comparison shows that the numerical results from both methods on an individual flexible beam are almost identical, which, in some sense, provides mutual validation. The most prominent advantage of the presented VJM variant compared with the MSA method is that it can be applied in a flexible structure system with complicated kinematics formed in terms of flexible serial links and joints. Moreover, by combining the VJM variant and the virtual work principle, a systemwide analytical stiffness model can be easily obtained for mechanisms with both serial kinematics and parallel kinematics. In the dissertation, a system-wide stiffness model of a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine is constructed based on integration of the VJM variant and the virtual work principle. Numerical results of its stiffness performance are reported. For a kinematic redundant robot, to generate a set of feasible joints' trajectories for a prescribed trajectory of its end-effector, its system-wide stiffness performance is taken as the constraint in the joints trajectory planning in the dissertation. For a prescribed location of the end-effector, the robot permits an infinite number of inverse solutions, which consequently yields infinite kinds of stiffness performance. Therefore, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm in which the positions of redundant joints in the kinematics are taken as input variables was employed to search for the best stiffness performance of the robot. Numerical results of the generated joint trajectories are given for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, IWR (Intersector Welding/Cutting Robot), when a particular trajectory of its end-effector has been prescribed. The numerical results show that the joint trajectories generated based on the stiffness optimization are feasible for realization in the control system since they are acceptably smooth. The results imply that the stiffness performance of the robot machine deviates smoothly with respect to the kinematic configuration in the adjacent domain of its best stiffness performance. To suppress the vibration of the robot machine due to varying cutting force during the machining process, this dissertation proposed a feedforward control strategy, which is constructed based on the derived inverse dynamics model of target system. The effectiveness of applying such a feedforward control in the vibration suppression has been validated in a parallel manipulator in the software environment. The experimental study of such a feedforward control has also been included in the dissertation. The difficulties of modelling the actual system due to the unknown components in its dynamics is noticed. As a solution, a back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed for identification of the unknown components of the dynamics model of the target system. To train such a BP neural network, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that can utilize an experimental input-output data set of the entire dynamic system is introduced in the dissertation. Validation of the BP neural network and the modified Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm is done, respectively, by a sinusoidal output approximation, a second order system parameters estimation, and a friction model estimation of a parallel manipulator, which represent three different application aspects of this method.

Management of Soft Information in Sales and Operations Planning

With a Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process, a company aims to manage the demand and supply by planning and forecasting. The studied company uses an integrated S&OP process to improve the company's operations. The aim of this thesis is to develop this business process by finding the best possible way to manage the soft information in S&OP, whilst also understanding the importance and types (assumptions, risks and opportunities) of soft information in S&OP. The soft information in S&OP helps to refine future S&OP planning, taking into account the uncertainties that affect the balance of the long-term demand and supply (typically 12-18 months). The literature review was used to create a framework for soft information management process in S&OP. There were not found a concrete way how to manage soft information in the existing literature. In consequence of the poor literature available the Knowledge Management literature was used as the base for the framework creation, which was seen in the very same type of information management like the soft information management is. The framework created a four-stage process to manage soft information in S&OP that included also the required support systems. First phase is collecting and acquiring soft information in S&OP, which include also categorization. The categorization was the cornerstone to identify different requirements that needs to be taken into consideration when managing soft information in S&OP process. The next phase focus on storing data, which purpose is to ensure the soft information is managed in a common system (support system) in a way that the following phase makes it available to users in S&OP who need by help of sharing and applications process. The last phase target is to use the soft information to understand assumptions and thoughts of users behind the numbers in S&OP plans. With this soft management process the support system will have a key role. The support system, like S&OP tool, ensures that soft information is stored in the right places, kept up-to-date and relevancy. The soft information management process in S&OP strives to improve the relevant soft information documenting behind the S&OP plans into the S&OP support system. The process offers an opportunity to individuals to review, comment and evaluate soft information in S&OP made by their own or others. In the case company it was noticed that without a properly documented and distributed soft information in S&OP it was seen to cause mistrust towards the planning.

Development of category planning process in construction business

The aim of this thesis was to develop the category planning process in the case company operating in construction industry. As the interest in the field of research has just recently started to emerge towards the benefits of category management and planning, the theoretical background was derived from literature of subjects with a relation to category planning i.e. procurement strategy, purchasing portfolio model, information flow management and cost analysis. The background for the development of category planning process was derived from retail industry, to where the category planning is more researched. The empirical study was executed with mixed method approach: quantitative data of the categories was analyzed and qualitative data was gathered through semi-structured interview and discussions within the case company. As a result, the category planning process was critically analyzed and development proposals addressed for improving the process description. Additionally a tool was developed based on the empirical study to support the category planning process of the case company.

Accuracy of dose planning for prostate radiotherapy in the presence of metallic implants evaluated by electron spin resonance dosimetry

Radiotherapy is one of the main approaches to cure prostate cancer, and its success depends on the accuracy of dose planning. A complicating factor is the presence of a metallic prosthesis in the femur and pelvis, which is becoming more common in elderly populations. The goal of this work was to perform dose measurements to check the accuracy of radiotherapy treatment planning under these complicated conditions. To accomplish this, a scale phantom of an adult pelvic region was used with alanine dosimeters inserted in the prostate region. This phantom was irradiated according to the planned treatment under the following three conditions: with two metallic prostheses in the region of the femur head, with only one prosthesis, and without any prostheses. The combined relative standard uncertainty of dose measurement by electron spin resonance (ESR)/alanine was 5.05%, whereas the combined relative standard uncertainty of the applied dose was 3.35%, resulting in a combined relative standard uncertainty of the whole process of 6.06%. The ESR dosimetry indicated that there was no difference (P>0.05, ANOVA) in dosage between the planned dose and treatments. The results are in the range of the planned dose, within the combined relative uncertainty, demonstrating that the treatment-planning system compensates for the effects caused by the presence of femur and hip metal prostheses.