Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Aging and stationary properties of non-equilibrium symmetrical three-state models

We consider a non-equilibrium three-state model whose dynamics is Markovian and displays the same symmetry as the three-state Potts model, i.e. the transition rates are invariant under the cyclic permutation of the states. Unlike the Potts model, detailed balance is, in general, not satisfied. The aging and the stationary properties of the model defined on a square lattice are obtained by means of large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the phase diagram presents a critical line, belonging to the three-state Potts universality class, that ends at a point whose universality class is that of the Voter model. Aging is considered on the critical line, at the Voter point and in the ferromagnetic phase.

Shared information in stationary states at criticality

We consider bipartitions of one-dimensional extended systems whose probability distribution functions describe stationary states of stochastic models. We define estimators of the information shared between the two subsystems. If the correlation length is finite, the estimators stay finite for large system sizes. If the correlation length diverges, so do the estimators. The definition of the estimators is inspired by information theory. We look at several models and compare the behaviors of the estimators in the finite-size scaling limit. Analytical and numerical methods as well as Monte Carlo simulations are used. We show how the finite-size scaling functions change for various phase transitions, including the case where one has conformal invariance.

Protecting clean critical points by local disorder correlations

We show that a broad class of quantum critical points can be stable against locally correlated disorder even if they are unstable against uncorrelated disorder. Although this result seemingly contradicts the Harris criterion, it follows naturally from the absence of a random-mass term in the associated order parameter field theory. We illustrate the general concept with explicit calculations for quantum spin-chain models. Instead of the infinite-randomness physics induced by uncorrelated disorder, we find that weak locally correlated disorder is irrelevant. For larger disorder, we find a line of critical points with unusual properties such as an increase of the entanglement entropy with the disorder strength. We also propose experimental realizations in the context of quantum magnetism and cold-atom physics. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2011

Comparing time-varying autoregressive structures of locally stationary processes

In this paper, a novel statistical test is introduced to compare two locally stationary time series. The proposed approach is a Wald test considering time-varying autoregressive modeling and function projections in adequate spaces. The covariance structure of the innovations may be also time- varying. In order to obtain function estimators for the time- varying autoregressive parameters, we consider function expansions in splines and wavelet bases. Simulation studies provide evidence that the proposed test has a good performance. We also assess its usefulness when applied to a financial time series.

Matrix Representation of the Stationary Measure for the Multispecies TASEP

In this work we construct the stationary measure of the N species totally asymmetric simple exclusion process in a matrix product formulation. We make the connection between the matrix product formulation and the queueing theory picture of Ferrari and Martin. In particular, in the standard representation, the matrices act on the space of queue lengths. For N > 2 the matrices in fact become tensor products of elements of quadratic algebras. This enables us to give a purely algebraic proof of the stationary measure which we present for N=3.

Billiards in a General Domain with Random Reflections

We study stochastic billiards on general tables: a particle moves according to its constant velocity inside some domain D R(d) until it hits the boundary and bounces randomly inside, according to some reflection law. We assume that the boundary of the domain is locally Lipschitz and almost everywhere continuously differentiable. The angle of the outgoing velocity with the inner normal vector has a specified, absolutely continuous density. We construct the discrete time and the continuous time processes recording the sequence of hitting points on the boundary and the pair location/velocity. We mainly focus on the case of bounded domains. Then, we prove exponential ergodicity of these two Markov processes, we study their invariant distribution and their normal (Gaussian) fluctuations. Of particular interest is the case of the cosine reflection law: the stationary distributions for the two processes are uniform in this case, the discrete time chain is reversible though the continuous time process is quasi-reversible. Also in this case, we give a natural construction of a chord ""picked at random"" in D, and we study the angle of intersection of the process with a (d - 1) -dimensional manifold contained in D.

Instability of equilibrium points of some Lagrangian systems

In this work we show that, if L is a natural Lagrangian system such that the k-jet of the potential energy ensures it does not have a minimum at the equilibrium and such that its Hessian has rank at least n - 2, then there is an asymptotic trajectory to the associated equilibrium point and so the equilibrium is unstable. This applies, in particular, to analytic potentials with a saddle point and a Hessian with at most 2 null eigenvalues. The result is proven for Lagrangians in a specific form, and we show that the class of Lagrangians we are interested can be taken into this specific form by a subtle change of spatial coordinates. We also consider the extension of this results to systems subjected to gyroscopic forces. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ABELIANIZED OBSTRUCTION FOR FIXED POINTS OF FIBER-PRESERVING MAPS OF SURFACE BUNDLES

Let f: M -> M be a fiber-preserving map where S -> M -> B is a bundle and S is a closed surface. We study the abelianized obstruction, which is a cohomology class in dimension 2, to deform f to a fixed point free map by a fiber-preserving homotopy. The vanishing of this obstruction is only a necessary condition in order to have such deformation, but in some cases it is sufficient. We describe this obstruction and we prove that the vanishing of this class is equivalent to the existence of solution of a system of equations over a certain group ring with coefficients given by Fox derivatives.

Genericity of Nondegeneracy for Light Rays in Stationary Spacetimes

Given a Lorentzian manifold (M, g), an event p and an observer U in M, then p and U are light conjugate if there exists a lightlike geodesic gamma : [0, 1] -> M joining p and U whose endpoints are conjugate along gamma. Using functional analytical techniques, we prove that if one fixes p and U in a differentiable manifold M, then the set of stationary Lorentzian metrics in M for which p and U are not light conjugate is generic in a strong sense. The result is obtained by reduction to a Finsler geodesic problem via a second order Fermat principle for light rays, and using a transversality argument in an infinite dimensional Banach manifold setup.

Fixed points on Klein bottle fiber bundles over the circle

The main purpose of this work is to study fixed points of fiber-preserving maps over the circle S(1) for spaces which are fiber bundles over S(1) and the fiber is the Klein bottle K. We classify all such maps which can be deformed fiberwise to a fixed point free map. The similar problem for torus fiber bundles over S(1) has been solved recently.

On a Gromoll-Meyer type theorem in globally hyperbolic stationary spacetimes

Following the lines of the celebrated Riemannian result of Gromoll and Meyer, we use infinite dimensional equivariant Morse theory to establish the existence of infinitely many geometrically distinct closed geodesics in a class of globally hyperbolic stationary Lorentzian manifolds.

Periodic geodesics and geometry of compact Lorentzian manifolds with a Killing vector field

We study the geometry and the periodic geodesics of a compact Lorentzian manifold that has a Killing vector field which is timelike somewhere. Using a compactness argument for subgroups of the isometry group, we prove the existence of one timelike non self-intersecting periodic geodesic. If the Killing vector field is nowhere vanishing, then there are at least two distinct periodic geodesics; as a special case, compact stationary manifolds have at least two periodic timelike geodesics. We also discuss some properties of the topology of such manifolds. In particular, we show that a compact manifold M admits a Lorentzian metric with a nowhere vanishing Killing vector field which is timelike somewhere if and only if M admits a smooth circle action without fixed points.

Maslov index in semi-Riemannian submersions

We study focal points and Maslov index of a horizontal geodesic gamma : I -> M in the total space of a semi-Riemannian submersion pi : M -> B by determining an explicit relation with the corresponding objects along the projected geodesic pi omicron gamma : I -> B in the base space. We use this result to calculate the focal Maslov index of a (spacelike) geodesic in a stationary spacetime which is orthogonal to a timelike Killing vector field.

COMPARISON RESULTS FOR CONJUGATE AND FOCAL POINTS IN SEMI-RIEMANNIAN GEOMETRY VIA MASLOV INDEX

We prove an estimate on the difference of Maslov indices relative to the choice of two distinct reference Lagrangians of a continuous path in the Lagrangian Grassmannian of a symplectic space. We discuss some applications to the study of conjugate and focal points along a geodesic in a semi-Riemannian manifold.