Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure risk in older adults: the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between inflammation and heart failure (HF) risk in older adults. BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with HF risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. METHODS: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox models among 2,610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study (age 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). RESULTS: During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF developed in 311 (11.9%) participants. In models controlling for clinical characteristics, ankle-arm index, and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and CRP concentrations was associated with 29% (95% confidence interval: 13% to 47%; p < 0.001), 46% (95% confidence interval: 17% to 84%; p = 0.001), and 9% (95% confidence interval: -1% to 24%; p = 0.087) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, but not CRP, remained significant. These associations were similar across sex and race and persisted in models accounting for death as a competing event. Post-HF ejection fraction was available in 239 (76.8%) cases; inflammatory markers had stronger association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Repeat IL-6 and CRP determinations at 1-year follow-up did not provide incremental information. Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved model discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; p = 0.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed modelsfor short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay.The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes theforecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and themixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component.The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of dataversus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interestbecause they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet.Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.

Cytochrome P450 2D6 genotype and methadone steady-state concentrations

A genetic polymorphism of cytochrome P450 2D6 has been described with the existence of poor (zero functional genes), extensive (one or two functional genes), and ultrarapid metabolizers (three or more functional genes). The authors measured the steady-state trough (R)- (i.e., the active enantiomer), (S)-, and (R,S)-methadone plasma levels in opiate-dependent patients receiving methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) and genotyped them for cytochrome P4502D6. The patients' medical records were reviewed to assess the outcome of the MMT with regard to the absence of illicit opiate consumption and to the absence of withdrawal complaints in ultrarapid and poor metabolizers. Of 256 patients included, 18 were found to be poor metabolizers, 228 to be extensive metabolizers, and 10 to be ultrarapid metabolizers. Significant differences were found between genotypes for (R)- (p = 0.024), (S)- (p = 0.033), and (R,S)-methadone (p = 0.026) concentrations to dose-to-weight ratios. For (R)-methadone, a significant difference was found between ultrarapid metabolizers and poor metabolizers (p = 0.009), with the median value in the former group being only 54% of the median value in the latter group. These results confirm the involvement of cytochrome P450 2D6 in methadone metabolism. Although the difference was nonsignificant (p = 0.103), 13 (72%) of the 18 poor metabolizers and only 4 (40%) of the 10 ultrarapid metabolizers were considered successful in their treatment. More studies are needed to examine the influence of the ultrarapid metabolizer status on the outcome of the MMT.

A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.

Hypernormal densities

We propose a new family of density functions that possess both flexibilityand closed form expressions for moments and anti-derivatives, makingthem particularly appealing for applications. We illustrate its usefulnessby applying our new family to obtain density forecasts of U.S. inflation.Our methods generate forecasts that improve on standard methods based on AR-ARCH models relying on normal or Student's t-distributional assumptions.

B1-insensitive T2 preparation for improved coronary magnetic resonance angiography at 3 T.

At 3 T, the effective wavelength of the RF field is comparable to the dimension of the human body, resulting in B1 standing wave effects and extra variations in phase. This effect is accompanied by an increase in B0 field inhomogeneity compared to 1.5 T. This combination results in nonuniform magnetization preparation by the composite MLEV weighted T2 preparation (T2 Prep) sequence used for coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). A new adiabatic refocusing T2 Prep sequence is presented in which the magnetization is tipped into the transverse plane with a hard RF pulse and refocused using a pair of adiabatic fast-passage RF pulses. The isochromats are subsequently returned to the longitudinal axis using a hard RF pulse. Numerical simulations predict an excellent suppression of artifacts originating from B1 inhomogeneity while achieving good contrast enhancement between coronary arteries and surrounding tissue. This was confirmed by an in vivo study, in which coronary MR angiograms were obtained without a T2 Prep, with an MLEV weighted T2 Prep and the proposed adiabatic T2 Prep. Improved quantitative and qualitative coronary MRA image measurement was achieved using the adiabatic T2 Prep at 3 T.

Fixed and random effects in Classical and Bayesian regression

This paper proposes a common and tractable framework for analyzingdifferent definitions of fixed and random effects in a contant-slopevariable-intercept model. It is shown that, regardless of whethereffects (i) are treated as parameters or as an error term, (ii) areestimated in different stages of a hierarchical model, or whether (iii)correlation between effects and regressors is allowed, when the sameinformation on effects is introduced into all estimation methods, theresulting slope estimator is also the same across methods. If differentmethods produce different results, it is ultimately because differentinformation is being used for each methods.

Evaluation of the Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis instrument in a Swiss sample of drug abusers.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate a French language version of the Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis (ADAD) instrument in a Swiss sample of adolescent illicit drug and/or alcohol users. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The participants in the study were 102 French-speaking adolescents aged 13-19 years who fitted the criteria of illicit drug or alcohol use (at least one substance--except tobacco--once a week during the last 3 months). They were recruited in hospitals, institutions and leisure places. Procedure. The ADAD was administered individually by trained psychologists. It was integrated into a broader protocol including alcohol and drug abuse DSM-IV diagnoses, the BDI-13 (Beck Depression Inventory), life events and treatment trajectories. RESULTS: The ADAD appears to show good inter-rater reliability; the subscales showed good internal coherence and the correlations between the composite scores and the severity ratings were moderate to high. Finally, the results confirmed good concurrent validity for three out of eight ADAD dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: The French language version of the ADAD appears to be an adequate instrument for assessing drug use and associated problems in adolescents. Despite its complexity, the instrument has acceptable validity, reliability and usefulness criteria, enabling international and transcultural comparisons.

Carbamazepine augmentation in depressive patients non-responding to citalopram: a pharmacokinetic and clinical pilot study

Citalopram is a chiral antidepressant drug. Its eutomer, S-citalopram (escitalopram), has recently been introduced as an antidepressant. In an open pilot study, four outpatients and two inpatients with a major depressive episode (ICD-10), and who were nonresponders to a 4-week pretreatment with 40-60 mg/day citalopram, were comedicated for another 4-week period with carbamazepine (200-400 mg/day). Some of the patients suffered also from comorbidities: Phobic anxiety disorder with panic attacks (n=2), generalised anxiety disorder, alcohol abuse, dependent personality disorder, hypertension (n=1). After a 4-week augmentation therapy with carbamazepine, a significant (P<0.03) decrease of the plasma concentrations of S-citalopram and R-citalopram, by 27 and 31%, respectively, was observed. Apparently, the probable induction of CYP3A4 by carbamazepine results in a nonstereoselective increase in N-demethylation of citalopram. Moreover, there was a significant (P<0.03) decrease of the ratio S/R-citalopram propionic acid derivative, the formation of it being partly regulated by MAO-A and MAO-B. Already, within 1 week after addition of carbamazepine, there was a slight but significant (P<0.03) decrease of the MADRS depression scores, from 27.0+/-7.7 (mean+/-S.D.) to 23.3+/-6.6, and the final score on day 56 was 18.8+/-10.9. The treatment was generally well tolerated. There was no evidence of occurrence of a serotonin syndrome. After augmentation with carbamazepine, treatment related adverse events were: Nausea in one case, diarrhea in one case, and rash in two cases. In conclusion, the results of this pilot study suggest that carbamazepine augmentation of a citalopram treatment in previous nonresponders to citalopram may be clinically useful, but that in addition carbamazepine can lead to a decrease of the plasma concentrations of the active enantiomer escitalopram.

Bortezomib(Velcade (R))-Thalidomide-Dexamethasone (VTD) Is Superior to Thalidomide-Dexamethasone (TD) In Patients with Multiple Myeloma (MM) Progressing or Relapsing After Autologous Transplantation.

Introduction: The Thalidomide-Dexamethasone (TD) regimen has provided encouraging results in relapsed MM. To improve results, bortezomib (Velcade) has been added to the combination in previous phase II studies, the so called VTD regimen. In January 2006, the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) and the Intergroupe Francophone du Myélome (IFM) initiated a prospective, randomized, parallel-group, open-label phase III, multicenter study, comparing VTD (arm A) with TD (arm B) for MM patients progressing or relapsing after autologous transplantation. Patients and Methods: Inclusion criteria: patients in first progression or relapse after at least one autologous transplantation, including those who had received bortezomib or thalidomide before transplant. Exclusion criteria: subjects with neuropathy above grade 1 or non secretory MM. Primary study end point was time to progression (TTP). Secondary end points included safety, response rate, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Treatment was scheduled as follows: bortezomib 1.3 mg/m2 was given as an i.v bolus on Days 1, 4, 8 and 11 followed by a 10-Day rest period (days 12 to 21) for 8 cycles (6 months) and then on Days 1, 8, 15, 22 followed by a 20-Day rest period (days 23 to 42) for 4 cycles (6 months). In both arms, thalidomide was scheduled at 200 mg/Day orally for one year and dexamethasone 40 mg/Day orally four days every three weeks for one year. Patients reaching remission could proceed to a new stem cell harvest. However, transplantation, either autologous or allogeneic, could only be performed in patients who completed the planned one year treatment period. Response was assessed by EBMT criteria, with additional category of near complete remission (nCR). Adverse events were graded by the NCI-CTCAE, Version 3.0.The trial was based on a group sequential design, with 4 planned interim analyses and one final analysis that allowed stopping for efficacy as well as futility. The overall alpha and power were set equal to 0.025 and 0.90 respectively. The test for decision making was based on the comparison in terms of the ratio of the cause-specific hazards of relapse/progression, estimated in a Cox model stratified on the number of previous autologous transplantations. Relapse/progression cumulative incidence was estimated using the proper nonparametric estimator, the comparison was done by the Gray test. PFS and OS probabilities were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curves, the comparison was performed by the Log-Rank test. An interim safety analysis was performed when the first hundred patients had been included. The safety committee recommended to continue the trial. Results: As of 1st July 2010, 269 patients had been enrolled in the study, 139 in France (IFM 2005-04 study), 21 in Italy, 38 in Germany, 19 in Switzerland (a SAKK study), 23 in Belgium, 8 in Austria, 8 in the Czech republic, 11 in Hungary, 1 in the UK and 1 in Israel. One hundred and sixty nine patients were males and 100 females; the median age was 61 yrs (range 29-76). One hundred and thirty six patients were randomized to receive VTD and 133 to receive TD. The current analysis is based on 246 patients (124 in arm A, 122 in arm B) included in the second interim analysis, carried out when 134 events were observed. Following this analysis, the trial was stopped because of significant superiority of VTD over TD. The remaining patients were too premature to contribute to the analysis. The number of previous autologous transplants was one in 63 vs 60 and two or more in 61 vs 62 patients in arm A vs B respectively. The median follow-up was 25 months. The median TTP was 20 months vs 15 months respectively in arm A and B, with cumulative incidence of relapse/progression at 2 years equal to 52% (95% CI: 42%-64%) vs 70% (95% CI: 61%-81%) (p=0.0004, Gray test). The same superiority of arm A was also observed when stratifying on the number of previous autologous transplantations. At 2 years, PFS was 39% (95% CI: 30%-51%) vs 23% (95% CI: 16%-34%) (A vs B, p=0.0006, Log-Rank test). OS in the first two years was comparable in the two groups. Conclusion: VTD resulted in significantly longer TTP and PFS in patients relapsing after ASCT. Analysis of response and safety data are on going and results will be presented at the meeting. Protocol EU-DRACT number: 2005-001628-35.

Symptom-triggered vs fixed-schedule doses of benzodiazepine for alcohol withdrawal: a randomized treatment trial.

BACKGROUND: In alcohol withdrawal, fixed doses of benzodiazepine are generally recommended as a first-line pharmacologic approach. This study determines the benefits of an individualized treatment regimen on the quantity of benzodiazepine administered and the duration of its use during alcohol withdrawal treatment. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, randomized, double-blind, controlled trial including 117 consecutive patients with alcohol dependence, according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, entering an alcohol treatment program at both the Lausanne and Geneva university hospitals, Switzerland. Patients were randomized into 2 groups: (1) 56 were treated with oxazepam in response to the development of signs of alcohol withdrawal (symptom-triggered); and (2) 61 were treated with oxazepam every 6 hours with additional doses as needed (fixed-schedule). The administration of oxazepam in group 1 and additional oxazepam in group 2 was determined using a standardized measure of alcohol withdrawal. The main outcome measures were the total amount and duration of treatment with oxazepam, the incidence of complications, and the comfort level. RESULTS: A total of 22 patients (39%) in the symptom-triggered group were treated with oxazepam vs 100% in the fixed-schedule group (P<.001). The mean oxazepam dose administered in the symptom-triggered group was 37.5 mg compared with 231.4 mg in the fixed-schedule group (P<.001). The mean duration of oxazepam treatment was 20.0 hours in the symptom-triggered group vs 62.7 hours in the fixed-schedule group (P<.001). Withdrawal complications were limited to a single episode of seizures in the symptom-triggered group. There were no differences in the measures of comfort between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Symptom-triggered benzodiazepine treatment for alcohol withdrawal is safe, comfortable, and associated with a decrease in the quantity of medication and duration of treatment.

A comparison of methods for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq data.

BACKGROUND: Finding genes that are differentially expressed between conditions is an integral part of understanding the molecular basis of phenotypic variation. In the past decades, DNA microarrays have been used extensively to quantify the abundance of mRNA corresponding to different genes, and more recently high-throughput sequencing of cDNA (RNA-seq) has emerged as a powerful competitor. As the cost of sequencing decreases, it is conceivable that the use of RNA-seq for differential expression analysis will increase rapidly. To exploit the possibilities and address the challenges posed by this relatively new type of data, a number of software packages have been developed especially for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq data. RESULTS: We conducted an extensive comparison of eleven methods for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq data. All methods are freely available within the R framework and take as input a matrix of counts, i.e. the number of reads mapping to each genomic feature of interest in each of a number of samples. We evaluate the methods based on both simulated data and real RNA-seq data. CONCLUSIONS: Very small sample sizes, which are still common in RNA-seq experiments, impose problems for all evaluated methods and any results obtained under such conditions should be interpreted with caution. For larger sample sizes, the methods combining a variance-stabilizing transformation with the 'limma' method for differential expression analysis perform well under many different conditions, as does the nonparametric SAMseq method.

A fast Bayesian reconstruction algorithm for emission tomography with entropy prior converging to feasible images

The development and tests of an iterative reconstruction algorithm for emission tomography based on Bayesian statistical concepts are described. The algorithm uses the entropy of the generated image as a prior distribution, can be accelerated by the choice of an exponent, and converges uniformly to feasible images by the choice of one adjustable parameter. A feasible image has been defined as one that is consistent with the initial data (i.e. it is an image that, if truly a source of radiation in a patient, could have generated the initial data by the Poisson process that governs radioactive disintegration). The fundamental ideas of Bayesian reconstruction are discussed, along with the use of an entropy prior with an adjustable contrast parameter, the use of likelihood with data increment parameters as conditional probability, and the development of the new fast maximum a posteriori with entropy (FMAPE) Algorithm by the successive substitution method. It is shown that in the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and FMAPE algorithms, the only correct choice of initial image for the iterative procedure in the absence of a priori knowledge about the image configuration is a uniform field.