Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Clinical and epidemiological profile of female blood donors with positive serology for viral hepatitis B

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:Since women are frequently the minority among blood donors worldwide, studies evaluating this population usually reflect male features. We assessed the features of female blood donors with positive serology for HBV and compared them with those of men.METHODS The study comprised consecutive blood donors referred to a specialized liver disease center to be evaluated due to HBsAg- and/or anti-HBc-positive tests.RESULTS: The study encompassed 1,273 individuals, 219 (17.2%) of whom were referred due to positive HBsAg test and 1,054 (82.8%) due to reactive anti-HBc test. Subjects' mean age was 36.8±10.9 years, and 28.7% were women. Female blood donors referred for positive HBsAg screening tests demonstrated higher prevalence of healthcare workers (9.3% vs 2.5%) and lower prevalence of sexual risk behaviors (15.1% vs 41.1%) and alcohol abuse (1.9% vs 19.8%) compared to men. Women had lower ALT (0.6 vs 0.8×ULN), AST (0.6 vs 0.8×ULN), direct bilirubin (0.2 vs 0.3mg/dL), and alkaline phosphatase (0.5 vs 0.6×ULN) levels and higher platelet count (223,380±50,293 vs 195,020±53,060/mm3). Women also had a higher prevalence of false-positive results (29.6% vs 17.0%). No differences were observed with respect to liver biopsies. Female blood donors referenced for reactive anti-HBc screening tests presented similar clinical, epidemiological, and biochemical characteristics to those reported for positive HBsAg screening tests and similarly had a higher prevalence of false-reactive results.CONCLUSIONS: Compared to men, female blood donors with positive HBsAg and/or anti-HBc screening tests demonstrated higher prevalence of professional risk and false-positive results and reduced alteration of liver chemistry.

Helicobacter pylori genotyping from positive clotests in patients with duodenal ulcer

Even though the seroprevalence of H. pylori may be high in the normal population, a minority develops peptic ulcer. Colonization of the gastric mucosa by more pathogenic vacA strains of H. pylori seems to be associated with enhanced gastric inflammation and duodenal ulcer. H. pylori genotyping from positive CLOtests was developed to determine the vacA genotypes and cagA status in 40 duodenal ulcer patients and for routine use. The pathogenic s1b/ m1/ cagA genotype was the most frequently occurring strain (17/42.5%); only two (5%) patients presented the s2/ m2 genotype, the less virulent strain. Multiple strains were also detected in 17 (42.5%) patients. Multiple strains of H. pylori colonizing the human stomach have been underestimated, because genotyping has been performed from cultures of H. pylori. We concluded that genotyping of H. pylori from a positive CLOtest had the advantages of reducing the number of biopsies taken during endoscopy, eliminating the step of culturing H. pylori, and assuring the presence of H. pylori in the specimen being processed.

Análise do acesso aos cuidados de reabilitação em Angola

RESUMO - Angola é um país em desenvolvimento e dado o baixo número de profissionais na reabilitação e a centralização dos cuidados desta área na capital do país, Luanda, é pertinente caraterizar o acesso dos utentes e perceber em que medida é que a oferta destes cuidados satisfaz as necessidades atuais da população. Sendo assim, este estudo teve como objetivos, avaliar o acesso dos utentes do Centro de Referência Nacional público para Reabilitação em Angola, CMFR, e identificação de áreas prioritárias de ação para promoção de igualdade no acesso. A análise metodológica consistiu na recolha e análise de dados dos utentes que acederam ao CMFR de Setembro de 2014 a Janeiro de 2015 e pesquisa documental abrangente, não-sistemática, sobre equidade e acesso a cuidados de saúde em Reabilitação a nivel internacional e em Angola. Para o tratamento e recolha de dados foram consideradas variáveis sociodemográficas e caraterizadoras do acesso onde se fez a caraterização da população em estudo, análise das variáveis resultantes do acesso ao CMFR através de uma análise de regressão.

O direito de exoneração do acionista minoritário

This study specifically addresses the situation of minority shareholders after the transfer of control in an listed company. The various underlying interests and reasons that shareholders have for investing in a company can demonstrate shareholders’ reasoning for taking radically different positions on issues relating to the transfer of control of the referred company. This study analyses the current legal system in Portugal and in the European Union in order to assess whether, in the event of a takeover bid of a listed company where there is a transfer of control, minority shareholders have the same appraisal rights as other shareholders to sell their shares and leave the company. The study then examines the European Court of Justice decision on whether a general principle of equal treatment of minority shareholders exists upon a transfer of control (Audiolux) and the Portuguese Securities Market Commission decision regarding the delisting of Brisa - Autoestradas de Portugal, S.A. based on the principle of investor protection. The study concludes that although the principle of equality amongst shareholders has made progress in the European legal system e.g. it is laid down in Directive 2004/25/EC of 21 April 2004 on takeover bids and the Portuguese Securities Market Code, there is also a need for further improvement, which can be accomplished by allowing minority shareholders to exercise an appraisal right in similar unregulated situations.

Opa e fusão

Control of a public company can be obtained through several ways, of which the tender offer and the merger are only two. We attempt to understand what are the risks involved in the appearance of a control position. Such underlying risks justify the rationality of the mandatory bid rule, as well as the consequences of said rule. Finally, we attempt to understand if the interests of the minority shareholders are duly defended in the case of control being acquired through merger, since that is the understanding of the legislator.

As Comissões Parlamentares de Inquérito no Portugal democrático, 1976-2015

As transformações operadas no mundo contemporâneo, em especial no que respeita às estruturas do poder, à sua maior autonomização e diferenciação, tiveram particulares reflexos ao nível dos Parlamentos e das funções que prosseguem. Desde a sua origem, no passado século XIII, à atualidade, grandes acontecimentos, clivagens e factos históricos estão presentes na sua linha evolutiva. A democratização do regime parlamentar e a legitimidade outorgada através de eleições democráticas e concorrenciais são um marco ímpar na sua história. A complexidade das sociedades hodiernas catapultou o Poder Executivo em detrimento do Parlamento, enquanto órgão legislativo por excelência. Tal circunstancialismo levou, não ao proclamado declínio dos Parlamentos, mas a reformas estruturantes. Outras e mais importantes funções seriam prosseguidas. Se as iniciativas legislativas e a definição das políticas públicas passaram a ser quase um exclusivo do Governo, havia que desenvolver e ampliar, por parte dos Parlamentos, os instrumentos de controlo, fiscalização e escrutínio da ação governativa. Entre os clássicos instrumentos de controlo avulta o Inquérito Parlamentar, materializado em Comissões Parlamentares de Inquérito, dotadas de poderes especiais para recolha de informação e para investigação. No seu percurso parlamentar, também as Comissões de Inquérito foram sendo alvo de constantes aperfeiçoamentos, de ordem constitucional, legal e regimental. A excessiva partidarização da atividade parlamentar de outrora e sobretudo a confusão entre o governo e o partido que o sustentava a nível parlamentar, o confronto desequilibrado de meios entre as maiorias e as minorias, levaram a um reposicionamento do inquérito parlamentar enquanto garante do direito das minorias. Não sendo expectável que as grandes iniciativas de controlo sejam tomadas pelo partido maioritário, cabe à oposição esse papel. Em Portugal, diminuta era a tradição do instituto do inquérito parlamentar, razão porque foi efémera e sem resultado a sua utilização no tempo da monarquia constitucional. O regime democrático, abraçado com o 25 de abril de 1974, relançou o órgão de soberania Parlamento e estabeleceu prioridades. Até ao amadurecimento da democracia viveram-se tempos mais conturbados mas de grande aprendizagem. O inquérito Parlamentar, a partir da revisão constitucional de 1982, passou conceptualmente a integrar um dos meios mais relevantes da fiscalização política. É, pois, o levantamento exaustivo e a análise das Comissões Parlamentares de Inquérito no Portugal democrático, período de 1976-2015, o objetivo a que nos propomos neste estudo.

Facilitadores e obstáculos do empreendedorismo: o caso das muambeiras de Lubango

Dissertação de mestrado em Estudos de Gestão

Planeamento e controlo de projetos de construção com recurso ao BIM

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Infância, escola e diversidade cultural: vozes plurais na caraterização de uma realidade plural

Dissertação de mestrado em Sociologia da Infância

Velhas e novas drogas: impactos da toxicodependência: estudo de caso na cidade de Braga

Dissertação de mestrado em Sociologia (área de especialização em Organizações e Trabalho)

O tratamento jornalístico que a RTP1 dá à Cultura: o caso do Telejornal

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Informação e Jornalismo)

Observations on the morphology of Australorbis nigricans

A morphological study was done on A. nigricans, based on the observation of shell, radula, renal region and genitalia of 50 specimens measuring 18 mm in diameter. The data obtained are to be compared with those recorded in our previous paper (PARAENSE & DESLANDES, 1955) on A. glabratus. The characteristics common to both species will not be mentioned here. The numerals refere to the means and their standard deviations: no special reference being done, they correspond to length measurementes. Shell - 18 mm in diameter, 6.37 ± 0.29 mm in greatest width, 6 whorls. Prevailing colur ferruginous sepia, a minority of olivaceous, ochreous, nigrescent and deeply black specimens being found. Right side variously depressed, umbilicated, 1.5 to 3.5 mm deep from the bottom of the umblicus to the highest level of the last whorl. Left side more depressed than the right one, broadly concave, 1.5 to 3.5 mm deep. Both sides show a varously distinct keel, that looks sharper at the left. Aperture deltoid, varying in outline and width. Body, extended - 60.26 ± 3.62 mm, less pigmented than in glabratus. Renal tube - 30.68 ± 1.69 mm, showing neither ridge nor pigmented line along its ventral surface, this negative character affording a sure means of separation from glabratus. Ovotestis - 14.48 ± 1.93 mm. Ovisperm duct - 13.04 ± 1.60 mm, including the non-unwound seminal vesicle. The latter was 0.97 ± 0,21 mm in greatest width. Carrefour - Resembling that of glabratus. Sperm duct - 21.36 ± 1.53 mm. Prostate - Prostate duct 7.14 ± 0.74 mm, collecting a row of long diverticula numbering 19.6 ± 3.1 and more separate than in glabratus. Last diverticulum generally bifurcate or arborescent, the remaining ones arborescent. Vas deferens - 28.68 ± 1.38. Ratio vas deferens/vergic sac = 6.8±0.8. Verge - 3.08 ± 0.28 mm long, 0.11 ± 0.02 mm wide. Vergic sac - 3.07 ± 0.28 mm long, about 0.20 mm wide. Ratio vergic sac/preputium = 0.84 ± 0.12. Preputium - 3.69 ± 0.47 mm long, 0.85 ± 0.10 mm wide. Albumen gland - Resembling taht of glabratus. Oviduct - 16.26 ± 1.41 mm, swollen at the cephalic end. Uterus - 13.24 ± 1.19 mm. Vagina - 1.70 ± 0.22 mm, swolen at the caudal portion. Spermatheca - 2.78 ± 0.40 mm long, 0.86 ± 0.16 mm wide. Spermathecal duct 1.11 ± 0.20 mm. Radula - 125 to 168 horizontal rows of teeth (mean 153.9 ± 8.4). Radula formula 28-1-28 to 36-1-36 (mean 31.8 ± 1.9). Mode formula 31-1-31. The morphological characteristics of the renal region and shell, and the great body length in the same condition of shell diameter, distinguish A. nigricans from the most related species A. glabratus, giving support to considering it a good species from a txonomic or phenotypic standpoint (morphospecies).

The relationship between subjective experiences during first use of tobacco and cannabis and the effect of the substance experienced first.

INTRODUCTION: We examined the positive and negative subjective feelings associated with initial tobacco and cannabis use as well as the role of these experiences in regular use. Additionally, we investigated the effect of the first substance experienced on initial subjective experiences and later regular use. METHODS: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men were obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors, which includes 2,321 lifetime tobacco and cannabis users. We assessed the age of first tobacco and cannabis use along with the subjective experiences associated with initial use. Additionally, subjective experiences related to regular use of both substances were analyzed. RESULTS: The initial subjective experiences were divided into positive and negative for each substance, and we found that the feelings associated with first use of tobacco and cannabis were similar. Moreover, the participants who used cannabis before tobacco reported fewer negative experiences associated with first tobacco use, whereas the participants who initially used tobacco reported more negative experiences related to first cannabis use. Also, we identified that regular use was encouraged by positive experiences and that negative experiences were more adverse for regular use of cannabis compared with tobacco. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, these results indicate that similar subjective experiences were associated with the first use of tobacco and cannabis. Also, the use of cannabis before tobacco, which occurred in only a minority of users, had the potential to enhance the effects of initial tobacco use.

Ventricular arrhythmia in coronary artery disease: limits of a risk stratification strategy based on the ejection fraction alone and impact of infarct localization.

AIMS: Estimates of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in patients with life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias related to coronary artery disease (CAD) have rarely been reported despite it has become the basis for determining patient's eligibility for prophylactic defibrillator. We aimed to determine the extent and distribution of reduced LVEF in patients with sustained ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation. METHODS AND RESULTS: 252 patients admitted for ventricular arrhythmia related to CAD were included: 149 had acute myocardial infarction (MI) (Group I, 59%), 54 had significant chronic obstructive CAD suggestive of an ischaemic arrhythmic trigger (Group II, 21%) and 49 patients had an old MI without residual ischaemia (Group III, 19%). 34% of the patients with scar-related arrhythmias had an LVEF > or =40%. Based on pre-event LVEF evaluation, it can be estimated that less than one quarter of the whole study population had a known chronic MI with severely reduced LVEF. In Group III, the proportion of inferior MI was significantly higher than anterior MI (81 vs. 19%; absolute difference, -62; 95% confidence interval, -45 to -79; P < or = 0.0001), though median LVEF was higher in inferior MI (0.37 +/- 10 vs. 0.29 +/- 10; P = 0.0499). CONCLUSION: Patients included in defibrillator trials represent only a minority of the patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. By applying the current risk stratification strategy based on LVEF, more than one third of the patients with old MI would not have qualified for a prophylactic defibrillator. Our study also suggests that inferior scars may be more prone to ventricular arrhythmia compared to anterior scars.