Learning dynamic prices in multiseller electronic retail markets with price sensitive customers, stochastic demands, and inventory replenishments

In this paper, we use reinforcement learning (RL) as a tool to study price dynamics in an electronic retail market consisting of two competing sellers, and price sensitive and lead time sensitive customers. Sellers, offering identical products, compete on price to satisfy stochastically arriving demands (customers), and follow standard inventory control and replenishment policies to manage their inventories. In such a generalized setting, RL techniques have not previously been applied. We consider two representative cases: 1) no information case, were none of the sellers has any information about customer queue levels, inventory levels, or prices at the competitors; and 2) partial information case, where every seller has information about the customer queue levels and inventory levels of the competitors. Sellers employ automated pricing agents, or pricebots, which use RL-based pricing algorithms to reset the prices at random intervals based on factors such as number of back orders, inventory levels, and replenishment lead times, with the objective of maximizing discounted cumulative profit. In the no information case, we show that a seller who uses Q-learning outperforms a seller who uses derivative following (DF). In the partial information case, we model the problem as a Markovian game and use actor-critic based RL to learn dynamic prices. We believe our approach to solving these problems is a new and promising way of setting dynamic prices in multiseller environments with stochastic demands, price sensitive customers, and inventory replenishments.

Social and material deprivation among youth in Finland : causes, consequences, and coping.

Background: Social and material deprivation is associated with poor health, decreased subjective well-being, and limited opportunities for personal development. To date, little is known about the lived experiences of Finnish low-income youths and the general purpose of this study is to fill this gap. Despite the extensive research on socioeconomic income disparities, only a few scholars have addressed the question of how low socioeconomic position is experienced by disadvantaged people themselves. Little is known about the everyday social processes that lead to decreased well-being of economically and socially disadvantaged citizens. Data: The study is based on the data of 65 autobiographical essays written by Finnish low-income youths aged 14-29 (M=23.51, SD=3.95). The research data were originally collected in a Finnish nationwide writing contest “Arkipäivän kokemuksia köyhyydestä” [Everyday Experiences of Poverty] between June and September of 2006. The contest was partaken by 850 Finnish writers. Methods and key concepts: Autobiographical narratives (N=65) of low-income youths were analyzed based on grounded theory methodology (GTM). The analysis was not built on specific pre-conceived categorizations; it was guided by the paradigm model and so-called “sensitizing concepts”. The concepts this study utilized were based on the research literature on socioeconomic inequalities, resilience, and coping. Socioeconomic inequalities refer to unequal distribution of resources, such as income, social status, and health, between social groups. The concept of resilience refers to an individual’s capacity to cope despite existing risk factors and conditions that are harmful to health and well-being. Coping strategies can be understood as ways by which a person tries to cope with psychological stress in a situation where internal or externals demands exceed one’s resources. The ways to cope are cognitive or behavioral efforts by which individual tries to relieve the stress and gain new resources. Lack of material and social resources is associated with increased exposure to health-related stressors during the life-course. Aims: The first aim of this study is to illustrate how youths with low socioeconomic status perceive the causes and consequences of their social and material deprivation. The second aim is to describe what kind of coping strategies youths employ to cope in their everyday life. The third aim is to build an integrative conceptual framework based on the relationships between causes, consequences, and individual coping strategies associated with deprivation. The analysis was carried out through systematic coding and orderly treatment of the data based on the grounded theory methodology. Results: Finnish low-income youths attributed the primary causes of deprivation to their family background, current socioeconomic status, sudden life changes, and contextual factors. Material and social deprivation was associated with various kinds of negative psychological, social, and material consequences. Youths used a variety of coping strategies that were identified as psychological, social, material, and functional-behavioral. Finally, a conceptual framework was formulated to link the findings together. In the discussion, the results were compared and contrasted to the existing research literature. The main references of the study were: Coping: Aldwin (2007); Lazarus & Folkman (1984); Hobfoll (1989, 2001, 2002). Deprivation: Larivaara, Isola, & Mikkonen (2007); Lister (2004); Townsend (1987); Raphael (2007). Health inequalities: Dahlgren & Whitehead (2007); Lynch. et al. (2000); Marmot & Wilkinson (2006); WHO (2008). Methods: Charmaz (2006); Flick (2009); Strauss & Corbin (1990). Resilience: Cutuli & Masten (2009); Luthar (2006).

An integrated model for optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops

An integrated model is developed, based on seasonal inputs of reservoir inflow and rainfall in the irrigated area, to determine the optimal reservoir release policies and irrigation allocations to multiple crops. The model is conceptually made up of two modules, Module 1 is an intraseasonal allocation model to maximize the sum of relative yields of all crops, for a given state of the system, using linear programming (LP). The module takes into account reservoir storage continuity, soil moisture balance, and crop root growth with time. Module 2 is a seasonal allocation model to derive the steady state reservoir operating policy using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). Reservoir storage, seasonal inflow, and seasonal rainfall are the state variables in the SDP. The objective in SDP is to maximize the expected sum of relative yields of all crops in a year. The results of module 1 and the transition probabilities of seasonal inflow and rainfall form the input for module 2. The use of seasonal inputs coupled with the LP-SDP solution strategy in the present formulation facilitates in relaxing the limitations of an earlier study, while affecting additional improvements. The model is applied to an existing reservoir in Karnataka State, India.

Solubilization of n-decane into n-decyl-polyoxyethylene surfactants: A cavity forming free energy based model

The present paper reports the results of a theoretical study of the forces and factors driving the solubilization of n-alkane solubilizates into the micellar core of some non-ionic surfactants, based on a micellar model which includes the cavity forming free energy as a component of micellization. The solubilizate is n-decane and the non-ionic surfactants considered are n-decyl-polyoxyethylene surfactants. The extent of solubilization, i.e. the mole fraction of the solubilizate within the core has been calculated. The results indicate that the incorporated solubilizate has more translational and rotational degrees of freedom as compared to those of the tail parts of the surfactants present in the core. This drives the total free energy of aggregation after solubilization into a more favourable direction. The results are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

S-nets: A Petri net based model for performance evaluation of real-time scheduling algorithms

A new class of nets, called S-nets, is introduced for the performance analysis of scheduling algorithms used in real-time systems Deterministic timed Petri nets do not adequately model the scheduling of resources encountered in real-time systems, and need to be augmented with resource places and signal places, and a scheduler block, to facilitate the modeling of scheduling algorithms. The tokens are colored, and the transition firing rules are suitably modified. Further, the concept of transition folding is used, to get intuitively simple models of multiframe real-time systems. Two generic performance measures, called �load index� and �balance index,� which characterize the resource utilization and the uniformity of workload distribution, respectively, are defined. The utility of S-nets for evaluating heuristic-based scheduling schemes is illustrated by considering three heuristics for real-time scheduling. S-nets are useful in tuning the hardware configuration and the underlying scheduling policy, so that the system utilization is maximized, and the workload distribution among the computing resources is balanced.

Optimal crop planning and conjunctive use of water resources in a coastal river basin

Due to increasing trend of intensive rice cultivation in a coastal river basin, crop planning and groundwater management are imperative for the sustainable agriculture. For effective management, two models have been developed viz. groundwater balance model and optimum cropping and groundwater management model to determine optimum cropping pattern and groundwater allocation from private and government tubewells according to different soil types (saline and non-saline), type of agriculture (rainfed and irrigated) and seasons (monsoon and winter). A groundwater balance model has been developed considering mass balance approach. The components of the groundwater balance considered are recharge from rainfall, irrigated rice and non-rice fields, base flow from rivers and seepage flow from surface drains. In the second phase, a linear programming optimization model is developed for optimal cropping and groundwater management for maximizing the economic returns. The models developed were applied to a portion of coastal river basin in Orissa State, India and optimal cropping pattern for various scenarios of river flow and groundwater availability was obtained.

Distributed Source Coding for Sensor Data Model and Estimation of Cluster Head Errors Using Bayesian and K-Near Neighborhood Classifiers in Deployment of Dense Wireless Sensor Networks

The lifetime calculation of large dense sensor networks with fixed energy resources and the remaining residual energy have shown that for a constant energy resource in a sensor network the fault rate at the cluster head is network size invariant when using the network layer with no MAC losses.Even after increasing the battery capacities in the nodes the total lifetime does not increase after a max limit of 8 times. As this is a serious limitation lots of research has been done at the MAC layer which allows to adapt to the specific connectivity, traffic and channel polling needs for sensor networks. There have been lots of MAC protocols which allow to control the channel polling of new radios which are available to sensor nodes to communicate. This further reduces the communication overhead by idling and sleep scheduling thus extending the lifetime of the monitoring application. We address the two issues which effects the distributed characteristics and performance of connected MAC nodes. (1) To determine the theoretical minimum rate based on joint coding for a correlated data source at the singlehop, (2a) to estimate cluster head errors using Bayesian rule for routing using persistence clustering when node densities are the same and stored using prior probability at the network layer, (2b) to estimate the upper bound of routing errors when using passive clustering were the node densities at the multi-hop MACS are unknown and not stored at the multi-hop nodes a priori. In this paper we evaluate many MAC based sensor network protocols and study the effects on sensor network lifetime. A renewable energy MAC routing protocol is designed when the probabilities of active nodes are not known a priori. From theoretical derivations we show that for a Bayesian rule with known class densities of omega1, omega2 with expected error P* is bounded by max error rate of P=2P* for single-hop. We study the effects of energy losses using cross-layer simulation of - large sensor network MACS setup, the error rate which effect finding sufficient node densities to have reliable multi-hop communications due to unknown node densities. The simulation results show that even though the lifetime is comparable the expected Bayesian posterior probability error bound is close or higher than Pges2P*.

A resource based game theoretical model for military conflicts

A resource interaction based game theoretical model for military conflicts is presented in this paper. The model includes both the spatial decision capability of adversaries (decision regarding movement and subsequent distribution of resources) as well as their temporal decision capability (decision regarding level of allocation of resources for conflict with adversary’s resources). Attrition is decided at present by simple deterministic models. An additional feature of this model is the inclusion of the possibility of a given resource interacting with several resources of the adversary.The decisions of the adversaries is determined by solving for the equilibrium Nash strategies given that the objectives of the adversaries may not be in direct conflict. Examples are given to show the applicability of these models and solution concepts.

Physically Based, Hydrologic Model Results Based on Three Precipitation Products

The main objective of the study is to examine the accuracy of and differences among simulated streamflows driven by rainfall estimates from a network of 22 rain gauges spread over a 2,170 km2 watershed, NEXRAD Stage III radar data, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 satellite data. The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), a physically based, distributed parameter, grid-structured, hydrologic model, was used to simulate the June-2002 flooding event in the Upper Guadalupe River watershed in south central Texas. There were significant differences between the rainfall fields estimated by the three types of measurement technologies. These differences resulted in even larger differences in the simulated hydrologic response of the watershed. In general, simulations driven by radar rainfall yielded better results than those driven by satellite or rain-gauge estimates. This study also presents an overview of effects of land cover changes on runoff and stream discharge. The results demonstrate that, for major rainfall events similar to the 2002 event, the effect of urbanization on the watershed in the past two decades would not have made any significant effect on the hydrologic response. The effect of urbanization on the hydrologic response increases as the size of the rainfall event decreases.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimization for the Management of Groundwater Resources

Ground management problems are typically solved by the simulation-optimization approach where complex numerical models are used to simulate the groundwater flow and/or contamination transport. These numerical models take a lot of time to solve the management problems and hence become computationally expensive. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) models were developed and coupled for the management of groundwater of Dore river basin in France. The Analytic Element Method (AEM) based flow model was developed and used to generate the dataset for the training and testing of the ANN model. This developed ANN-PSO model was applied to minimize the pumping cost of the wells, including cost of the pipe line. The discharge and location of the pumping wells were taken as the decision variable and the ANN-PSO model was applied to find out the optimal location of the wells. The results of the ANN-PSO model are found similar to the results obtained by AEM-PSO model. The results show that the ANN model can reduce the computational burden significantly as it is able to analyze different scenarios, and the ANN-PSO model is capable of identifying the optimal location of wells efficiently.

Impacts of climate change on regional water resources

Water is the most important medium through which climate change influences human life. Rising temperatures together with regional changes in precipitation patterns are some of the impacts of climate change that have implications on water availability, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture, water quality, water supply and water demands for irrigation and hydropower generation. In this article we provide an introduction to the emerging field of hydrologic impacts of climate change with a focus on water availability, water quality and irrigation demands. Climate change estimates on regional or local spatial scales are burdened with a considerable amount of uncertainty, stemming from various sources such as climate models, downscaling and hydrological models used in the impact assessments and uncertainty in the downscaling relationships. The present article summarizes the recent advances on uncertainty modeling and regional impacts of climate change for the Mahanadi and Tunga-Bhadra Rivers in India.