PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

Developing asset management in district heating and cooling business in a large energy company

The purpose of this Master´s Thesis is to develop asset management and its practices in case company. District heating and cooling systems operated by case company around Finland, Sweden, Poland and the Baltics form an enormous-sized asset base where some parts are starting to reach their end of life-cycles. Large-sized asset renewal actions are under discussion and maintenance spending is increasing. Financially justified decisions in changing business environment are needed. Asset management is one of the most important concepts for production organization which operates with capital-intensive production assets. Organizations profitability is highly dependent on assets´ performance. Such assets, like district heating and cooling systems, should be utilized as efficiently as possible within their life-cycles but also maintained and renewed optimally. In this qualitative thesis, empirical interview study was conducted to describe the current situation on how the assets are managed in the case company and to examine the readiness to implement a new, risk-based solution. Asset management revealed to be a very well-known concept. From proposed risk-based asset management point of view, several key observations were made. It was seen as a suitable solution, but further development will be needed. Based on the need and findings, several key processes and frameworks were created and also tested with a case study. Assets` condition monitoring should be improved, which would have a positive impact on event probability assessment. Risk acceptance is also a thing to be discussed further. When the evaluation becomes fluent in single investment cases, portfolio-level expansion should be considered and started. As a result, thesis proposes a solution how risk-based asset management could be performed practically in a capital-intensive case company in order to optimize the maintenance spending in a long run. Created practical framework is made universal: similar principles can be applied into multiple cases in case company but also in other energy companies. Risk-based asset management`s benefits could be utilized best in portfolio-level optimization where the capital would be invested to the most important objects from total risk point of view. Eventually, such approach would allow case company to optimize capital spending in a situation where funds are not adequate to cover all the mandatory needs and prioritization between the investment alternatives will truly be needed.

The Impact of Acquisitions on Share Pricing and Long Term Performance – Empirical Evidence from the Global Automotive Industry

Automotive industry has faced intense consolidation pressure, which has lead to increasing number of M&As. However, empirical evidence has given controversial results suggesting that most of M&As are value destructive for acquiring companies and for acquiring companies’ shareholders. The objective of this master’s thesis is to examine how acquiring companies’ shareholders react to acquisition announcement and is the reaction in line with the long-term performance. This study uses empirical evidence from automotive industry, which has been characterized as an industry that holds large amount of vertical and horizontal synergies. Transaction data consists of 65 acquisitions made by publicly listed companies between 2008-2010. The short-term impact is tested by applying event study methodology while the long term operative performance is examined with accounting study methodology. The event study results indicate that during the three days after acquisition (t= 0-2), the acquiring firms’ stocks generate an abnormal return of 1.22% on average across all acquisitions. When long term performance is studied it is evident that acquiring companies perform better than the industry median pre- and post-transaction but there is no statistically significant evidence that the performance has increased. The only performance ratio indicating statistically significant decrease is Return on Equity (ROE). On long-term horizontal acquisitions seem to outperform conglomerate ones but otherwise deal characteristics do not have any statistically significant impact.

Carbon pricing and its effect on company profitability

In order to reach the 2°C climate target, the carbon price should rise significantly in order for it to be financially rewarding for companies to reduce their emissions. This research aims to find how a significant increase in the carbon price would affect the profitability of companies. Prior research has not found consensus on how regulatory policies affect companies. This research looks at profitability factors of carbon pricing through a mix of related issues such as the carbon risk, carbon pricing mechanisms and cost pass-through of additional costs. The research is quantitative and examines financial data and emissions data regarding scope 1 and scope 2 emissions on 328 European companies. The data analysis method utilised is a sensitivity analysis conducted as a scenario analysis. Different price increases and cost pass-through rates are tested to see how company profitability is affected. As the companies are distributed between 9 sectors and 53 industries, the results vary. The industries that are found to be affected by an increase in carbon pricing show drastic negative changes in profitability. The results complement prior research identifying the most carbon-intensive industries, but also provide some new insights on industries that may be affected by carbon pricing. Industries related to manufacturing, electricity and energy are partly significantly impacted, but also industries related to tourism and food show potential signs of impact when an increased carbon price is introduced.

The Pricing of Customized Industrial Products

The main objective of this study was to examine the pricing of customized industrial products in international markets, and to understand what pricing decision making consists of. Another purpose of the study was to identify the main factors that affect the pricing decisions of industrial companies, as well as the different pricing strategies industrial companies may choose when pricing customized products. The research was conducted as a qualitative single case study, and a Finnish industrial company specializing in indoor environment solutions, Halton Marine Oy, was used as the case company in the study. The primary data was collected through semi-structured theme interviews with the key management personnel of the company, and the results were discussed and analyzed in the light of the existing literature. The results of this study indicate that the pricing of customized industrial products consists of several dimensions, and is influenced by a large variety of factors that are both internal and external to the firm. In addition, it was found that the choice of a pricing strategy is largely dependent on the chosen segment, the product category, and the stage in the product life cycle. The results also suggest that customizing companies should consider using the value-based pricing orientation, since customization is closely linked to customer value.

Is Brand Equity an Asset or a Liability in Brand Harm Crisis? Buffering and Amplifying Effects and Contingent Conditions

Brand harm crisis often result in negative consumer responses. This thesis addresses the buffering and amplifying theoretical perspectives of brand equity effects. We theorize that brand equity may interplay with the nature of brand-harm crisis in shaping consumer reactions. Results from focus group studies provide interesting insights into the amplifying and buffering effects. Moreover, research findings from two experiment studies show that brand equity amplifies consumer negative responses in a performance-related crisis but only when the crisis is extremely severe. When the crisis becomes less severe, the amplifying effect diminishes from outset. However, in a value-related crisis, the amplifying effect of brand equity is pervasive regardless of the level of crisis severity. The current thesis adds to the extant literature by demonstrating that brand equity can have very complex effects on consumer responses, which are contingent on the severity and domain of a crisis. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.

Comparing Predictive Accuracy of Real Estate Pricing Models: An Applied Study for the City of Montreal.

Rapport de recherche

Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

Aumann-Shapley Pricing : A Reconsideration of the Discrete Case

We reconsider the following cost-sharing problem: agent i = 1,...,n demands a quantity xi of good i; the corresponding total cost C(x1,...,xn) must be shared among the n agents. The Aumann-Shapley prices (p1,...,pn) are given by the Shapley value of the game where each unit of each good is regarded as a distinct player. The Aumann-Shapley cost-sharing method assigns the cost share pixi to agent i. When goods come in indivisible units, we show that this method is characterized by the two standard axioms of Additivity and Dummy, and the property of No Merging or Splitting: agents never find it profitable to split or merge their demands.

First-Degree Discrimination in a Competitive Setting: Pricing and Quality Choice

The paper investigates competition in price schedules among vertically differentiated dupolists. First order price discrimination is the unique Nash equilibrium of a sequential game in which firms determine first whether or not to commit to a uniform price, and then simultaneously choose either a single price of a price schedule. Whether the profits earned by both firms are larger or smaller under discrimination than under uniform pricing depends on the quality gap between firms, and on the disparity of consumer preferences. Firms engaged in first degree discrimination choose quality levels that are optimal from a welfare perspective. The paper also reflects on implications of these findings for pricing policies of an incumbent threatened by entry.

Le ‘Efficient Component Pricing Rule’ en tant que tarif d'accès aux réseaux dans le domaine des télécommunications.

Rapport de recherche

Valuing Sovereign Default Risk - A Pricing Formula and its Empirical Results for the Mexican External Debt.

Rapport de recherche