Model risk in the pricing of exotic options

The growth experimented in recent years in both the variety and volume of structured products implies that banks and other financial institutions have become increasingly exposed to model risk. In this article we focus on the model risk associated with the local volatility (LV) model and with the Variance Gamma (VG) model. The results show that the LV model performs better than the VG model in terms of its ability to match the market prices of European options. Nevertheless, both models are subject to significant pricing errors when compared with the stochastic volatility framework.

Reward-risk efficiency in proportional reinsurance with different risk measures

We have studied, in particular under normality of the implied random variables, the connections between different measures of risk such as the standard deviation, the W-ruin probability and the p-V@R. We discuss conditions granting the equivalence of these measures with respect to risk preference relations and the equivalence of dominance and efficiency of risk-reward criteria involving these measures. Then more specifically we applied these concepts to rigorously face the problem of finding the efficient set of de Finetti’s variable quota share proportional reinsurance.

Virtual communities of practice: investigating motivations and constraints in the processes of knowledge creation and transfer

With accelerated market volatility, faster response times and increased globalization, business environments are going through a major transformation and firms have intensified their search for strategies which can give them competitive advantage. This requires that companies continuously innovate, to think of new ideas that can be transformed or implemented as products, processes or services, generating value for the firm. Innovative solutions and processes are usually developed by a group of people, working together. A grouping of people that share and create new knowledge can be considered as a Community of Practice (CoP). CoP’s are places which provide a sound basis for organizational learning and encourage knowledge creation and acquisition. Virtual Communities of Practice (VCoP's) can perform a central role in promoting communication and collaboration between members who are dispersed in both time and space. Nevertheless, it is known that not all CoP's and VCoP's share the same levels of performance or produce the same results. This means that there are factors that enable or constrain the process of knowledge creation. With this in mind, we developed a case study in order to identify both the motivations and the constraints that members of an organization experience when taking part in the knowledge creating processes of VCoP's. Results show that organizational culture and professional and personal development play an important role in these processes. No interviewee referred to direct financial rewards as a motivation factor for participation in VCoPs. Most identified the difficulty in aligning objectives established by the management with justification for the time spent in the VCoP. The interviewees also said that technology is not a constraint.

Estudo para a implementação de plataformas de e-learning no sistema de formação dos recursos humanos da saúde: o caso particular dos enfermeiros de um hospital privado

Mestrado em Intervenção Sócio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Administração e Gestão de Serviços de Saúde.

Culturas, políticas e novas identidades: uma leitura europeia sobre questões de género na Ásia

Este ensaio discute algumas leituras críticas de textos teóricos da área das ciências sociais e humanas sobre o estatuto de género em países asiáticos, tentando estabelecer quais as suas principais problemáticas e metodologias. Presta especial atenção à questão das vozes femininas silenciadas e das práticas ignoradas do quotidiano das mulheres, problematizando o que sucede – ou pode suceder – quando às mulheres é permitido não só possuir um espaço social próprio (“a room of their own”, para citar Virginia Woolf), mas também uma voz própria. Para Edward Said o conceito ocidental de orientalismo implicava uma concepção masculina particular do mundo, mais evidente em romances e diários de viagem, onde as mulheres eram geralmente criaturas da fantasia masculina de poder. Esta concepção masculina do mundo oriental tende a ser estática, construindo-se assim o estereótipo do “eterno oriental”. As mulheres, tal como o “oriental”, nunca falam de si mesmos, das suas verdadeiras emoções, desejos e histórias: têm de ser representados, alguém tem de falar por si. No âmbito deste estudo, analisam-se alguns processos ideológicos e retóricos através dos quais a identidade das mulheres é construída e representada, tanto pelas próprias mulheres, como por vozes substitutas. A etnografia, a antropologia, a historiografia, a ficção, a cultura popular, os media e todos os tipos de fontes textuais e visuais desempenham um papel de relevo na invenção e na reinvenção de antigas e de novas identidades femininas, e na circulação destas no tempo e no espaço.

Assessment of guanylin peptides system in type 2 diabetes

Os doentes com diabetes mellitus tipo 2 apresentam predisposição para a retenção de sódio e são frequentemente hipertensos. No entanto, os mecanismos implicados na dificuldade do rim diabético em mobilizar o sódio são, ainda, pouco compreendidos. Os peptídeos da família das guanilinas estão envolvidos na regulação do transporte de electrólitos e água nos epitélios intestinal e renal, através da activação do receptor guanilato ciclase-C (GC-C) e subsequente libertação intracelular de GMPc. O objectivo do presente estudo foi a avaliação da actividade do sistema dos peptídeos das guanilinas (SPG) e do seu papel na regulação do balanço de sódio num modelo animal de diabetes tipo 2. Ratinhos machos C57BL/6 foram submetidos a uma dieta com alto teor de gordura e rica em hidratos de carbono simples (ratinhos diabéticos) ou a uma dieta normal (ratinhos controlo). A expressão renal e intestinal da guanilina (GN), uroguanilina (UGN) e do receptor GC-C assim como os níveis de GMPc na urina e plasma foram avaliados nos ratinhos controlo e diabéticos, durante a ingestão de dietas normo (NS) e hiper-salina (HS). Nos ratinhos diabéticos, durante a dieta NS verificou-se um aumento significativo da pressão arterial que foi acompanhado de redução da expressão do ARNm da GN, UGN e do GC-C no intestino e de aumento da expressão de ARNm da UGN no rim. A dieta HS induziu um aumento da expressão do ARNm da UGN no jejuno dos ratinhos controlo mas não nos diabéticos. Os ratinhos diabéticos apresentaram níveis urinários de GMPc inferiores aos controlos, em condições de dieta NS. Em conclusão, os nossos resultados sugerem que na diabetes tipo 2 ocorre uma redução da actividade intestinal do SPG que é acompanhada por um aumento compensatório da actividade renal do SPG. A diminuição da actividade do SPG intestinal na diabetes tipo 2 deve-se não só a uma redução da expressão dos peptídeos GN e UGN, mas também a uma redução da expressão do seu receptor, GC-C. Estes resultados sugerem que o SPG pode contribuir para a sensibilidade ao sódio na diabetes.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal by neural networks and wavelet transform

This paper proposes artificial neural networks in combination with wavelet transform for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Futuros: estudo de caso sobre futuros cambiais

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Análise de clusters e volatilidade de índices de acções

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

A internacionalização das empresas portuguesas da indústria do calçado e a relação com a volatilidade das vendas e resultados

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Melhoria do processo com recurso a metodologia Kaizen

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores