Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

A Factor analysis of hidrochemical composition of Llobregat river basin

Hydrogeological research usually includes some statistical studies devised to elucidate mean background state, characterise relationships among different hydrochemical parameters, and show the influence of human activities. These goals are achieved either by means of a statistical approach or by mixing models between end-members. Compositional data analysis has proved to be effective with the first approach, but there is no commonly accepted solution to the end-member problem in a compositional framework. We present here a possible solution based on factor analysis of compositions illustrated with a case study. We find two factors on the compositional bi-plot fitting two non-centered orthogonal axes to the most representative variables. Each one of these axes defines a subcomposition, grouping those variables that lay nearest to it. With each subcomposition a log-contrast is computed and rewritten as an equilibrium equation. These two factors can be interpreted as the isometric log-ratio coordinates (ilr) of three hidden components, that can be plotted in a ternary diagram. These hidden components might be interpreted as end-members. We have analysed 14 molarities in 31 sampling stations all along the Llobregat River and its tributaries, with a monthly measure during two years. We have obtained a bi-plot with a 57% of explained total variance, from which we have extracted two factors: factor G, reflecting geological background enhanced by potash mining; and factor A, essentially controlled by urban and/or farming wastewater. Graphical representation of these two factors allows us to identify three extreme samples, corresponding to pristine waters, potash mining influence and urban sewage influence. To confirm this, we have available analysis of diffused and widespread point sources identified in the area: springs, potash mining lixiviates, sewage, and fertilisers. Each one of these sources shows a clear link with one of the extreme samples, except fertilisers due to the heterogeneity of their composition. This approach is a useful tool to distinguish end-members, and characterise them, an issue generally difficult to solve. It is worth note that the end-member composition cannot be fully estimated but only characterised through log-ratio relationships among components. Moreover, the influence of each endmember in a given sample must be evaluated in relative terms of the other samples. These limitations are intrinsic to the relative nature of compositional data

Analysis of Pleistocene paleodrainage evolution in the Po Basin (Italy) by multivariate statistical techniques

In order to obtain a high-resolution Pleistocene stratigraphy, eleven continuously cored boreholes, 100 to 220m deep were drilled in the northern part of the Po Plain by Regione Lombardia in the last five years. Quantitative provenance analysis (QPA, Weltje and von Eynatten, 2004) of Pleistocene sands was carried out by using multivariate statistical analysis (principal component analysis, PCA, and similarity analysis) on an integrated data set, including high-resolution bulk petrography and heavy-mineral analyses on Pleistocene sands and of 250 major and minor modern rivers draining the southern flank of the Alps from West to East (Garzanti et al, 2004; 2006). Prior to the onset of major Alpine glaciations, metamorphic and quartzofeldspathic detritus from the Western and Central Alps was carried from the axial belt to the Po basin longitudinally parallel to the SouthAlpine belt by a trunk river (Vezzoli and Garzanti, 2008). This scenario rapidly changed during the marine isotope stage 22 (0.87 Ma), with the onset of the first major Pleistocene glaciation in the Alps (Muttoni et al, 2003). PCA and similarity analysis from core samples show that the longitudinal trunk river at this time was shifted southward by the rapid southward and westward progradation of transverse alluvial river systems fed from the Central and Southern Alps. Sediments were transported southward by braided river systems as well as glacial sediments transported by Alpine valley glaciers invaded the alluvial plain. Kew words: Detrital modes; Modern sands; Provenance; Principal Components Analysis; Similarity, Canberra Distance; palaeodrainage

El Ebro : un río vivo : un río para ser vivido.

Seleccionado en la convocatoria: Ayudas a la innovación e investigación educativa en centros docentes de niveles no universitarios, Gobierno de Aragón 2009-10

Los sotos del Ebro : una puerta abierta a la naturaleza.

Seleccionado en la convocatoria: Ayudas a la innovación e investigación educativa en centros docentes de niveles no universitarios, Gobierno de Aragón 2010-11

El Ebro : un río vivo, un río para ser vivido II.

Seleccionado en la convocatoria: Ayudas a la innovación e investigación educativa en centros docentes de niveles no universitarios, Gobierno de Aragón 2010-11

El Ebro : un lugar donde investigar, disfrutar y aprender.

Seleccionado en la convocatoria: Ayudas a la innovación e investigación educativa en centros docentes de niveles no universitarios, Gobierno de Aragón 2008-09

Aprovechamiento curricular del Pantano del Ebro.

El Recurso se trata de un CdRom acompañado de una carpeta de actividades sobre el Pantano del Ebro en Cantabria. Está realizado por el director del CRA (Centros Rurales Agrupados) de Campoo y una serie de maestros de las escuelas de la zona. Su trabajo va dirigido al Área de Conocimiento del Medio Social y Natural por lo que se plantearon objetivos en función del Paisaje, del Medio Físico, de los Seres Vivos, de la población y Actividades Económicas, Medios de Comunicación y Transporte y Cambios y Paisajes Históricos a su vez divididos en conceptuales, procedimentales y actitudinales. A través del CdRom se trabajan toda esta serie de ámbitos acompañados por las fichas de trabajo que tienen relación con el material y con lo que se trabaja en el aula. De esta manera se aprecia la localización en el mapa, fauna y territorio de alrededor, costumbres, trajes y gastronomía, movimiento económico e industrial, antiguos oficios, climatología, etc..

Construcció d'identitats des de les Terres de l'Ebre. 'Construcción de identidades desde las Tierras del Ebro'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación. Monográfico con el título: 'L'escola i la nació'

El Camp d'Aprenentatge del delta de l'Ebre. 'El Campo de Aprendizaje del delta del Ebro'.

Resumen basado en el del autor en catalán

Didàctica de la diversitat lingüística : model de llengua per a l'ensenyament (Montsià, Baix Ebre, Terra alta, Ribera d'Ebre). 'Didáctica de la diversidad lingüística : modelo para la enseñanza (Montsià, Bajo Ebro, Tierra alta, Ribera del Ebro)'.

Se exponen los casos en que la normativa de la lengua catalana plantea diversas posibilidades lingüísticas (fonética, morfología, léxico). De esta manera se favorece que sean conocidas y respetadas por el profesorado que trabaja en los centros de enseñanza de las comarcas de la zona. Se posibilita que las formas normativas de estas comarcas sean tratadas en las aulas sin ningún prejuicio y se presenta un material didáctico para tratar esta diversidad lingüística. Resumen de la autora.

El delta de l'Ebre. 'El delta del Ebro'

Da a conocer el delta del Ebro con la finalidad de sensibilizarnos en cuanto a la necesidad de protegerlo y conservarlo. La interacci??n del r??o y el mar han configurado un paraje incomparable, declarado parque natural, para proteger las zonas v??rgenes y armonizarlas con los cultivos tradicionales del arroz y la huerta.

Camp d'Aprenentatge del Delta de l'Ebre. 'Campo de Aprendizaje del Delta del Ebro'

Los campos de aprendizaje son servicios educativos que ofrecen a los chicos y chicas la posibilidad de estar en un entorno singular en Catalu??a. Con la estancia en este campo de aprendizaje se pretende que los alumnos conozcan el Delta del Ebro. A partir de distintos itinerarios se descubre el paisaje y las caracter??sticas medio ambientales del entorno: el descenso del rio Ebro enbarca, una vuelta en bicicleta y un paseo por el entrono son los ejemplos de las actividades que se realizan en el campo de aprendizaje.

Las calles de mi ciudad : Miranda de Ebro.

Resumen tomado del autor

Guía didáctica del Medio Ambiente de Miranda de Ebro.

El trabajo no ha sido publicado