The use of flexible quantile-based measures in risk assessment

A new family of distortion risk measures -GlueVaR- is proposed in Belles- Sampera et al. -2013- to procure a risk assessment lying between those provided by common quantile-based risk measures. GlueVaR risk measures may be expressed as a combination of these standard risk measures. We show here that this relationship may be used to obtain approximations of GlueVaR measures for general skewed distribution functions using the Cornish-Fisher expansion. A subfamily of GlueVaR measures satisfies the tail-subadditivity property. An example of risk measurement based on real insurance claim data is presented, where implications of tail-subadditivity in the aggregation of risks are illustrated.

Evaluation du risque de récidive dans les expertises pénales: quels outils? Quets indicateurs? Quelles pratiques [Risk assessment in forensic psychiatric reports: what kind assessment instrument? What indicator? What practical?].

Here we present results of studies conducted by the Research Unit of Legal Psychiatry and Psychology of Lausanne about risk assessment and protective factors in the evaluation of violence recidivism. It aims to help experts in considering the relevance and use of tools at their disposal. Particular attention is given to the significance of protective factors and impulsive dimensions, as to the inter-raters process that leads to the final deliberations.

Wine, beer, alcohol and polyphenols on cardiovascular disease and cancer

Abstract: Since ancient times, people have attributed a variety of health benefits to moderate consumption of fermented beverages such as wine and beer, often without any scientific basis. There is evidence that excessive or binge alcohol consumption is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, as well as with work related and traffic accidents. On the contrary, at the moment, several epidemiological studies have suggested that moderate consumption of alcohol reduces overall mortality, mainly from coronary diseases. However, there are discrepancies regarding the specific effects of different types of beverages (wine, beer and spirits) on the cardiovascular system and cancer, and also whether the possible protective effects of alcoholic beverages are due to their alcoholic content (ethanol) or to their non-alcoholic components (mainly polyphenols). Epidemiological and clinical studies have pointed out that regular and moderate wine consumption (one to two glasses a day) is associated with decreased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension, diabetes, and certain types of cancer, including colon, basal cell, ovarian, and prostate carcinoma. Moderate beer consumption has also been associated with these effects, but to a lesser degree, probably because of beer"s lower phenolic content. These health benefits have mainly been attributed to an increase in antioxidant capacity, changes in lipid profiles, and the anti-inflammatory effects produced by these alcoholic beverages. This review summarizes the main protective effects on the cardiovascular system and cancer resulting from moderate wine and beer intake due mainly to their common components, alcohol and polyphenols.

Wine, alcohol, polyphenols and cardiovascular disease

Abstract. Excessive alcohol consumption is associated with increased morbidity and mortality as well as with labour and traffic accidents. However, current evidence suggests beneficial effects of moderate drinking on cardiovascular events including coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, peripheral arterial disease and congestive heart failure. The underlying mechanisms to explain these protective effects against coronary heart disease include an increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and an increase in insulin sensitivity, and a decrease in platelet aggregation and circulating concentrations of fibrinogen. However, there are discrepancies regarding the specific effects of different types of beverages on the cardiovascular system, and also whether the possible protective effects of alcoholic beverages are due to their alcohol component (ethanol) or non-alcoholic products containing, mainly polyphenols. Recent randomised clinical trials have shown that wine, a polyphenol-rich alcoholic beverage, provides higher antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects than some spirits such as gin, a polyphenol-free alcoholic beverage. In addition, dealcoholized red wine decreases blood pressure through a nitric oxide mediated mechanism, suggesting a protective effect of polyphenols on vascular function. Other studies performed in women have observed that daily doses of 1520 g of alcohol as red wine are sufficient to elicit protective effects similar to those observed in men who consumed higher doses of wine. In conclusion, moderate consumption of wine exerts a protective effect on biomarkers related to the progression and development of atherosclerosis due to its alcoholic (ethanol) and non-alcoholic (polyphenols) content. Women are more sensitive to the beneficial effects of wine.

Physical activity in adolescence - with special reference to cardiovascular health

Liikunta ja sydän- ja verisuoniterveys nuorilla Aikuisiällä ilmenevien sydän- ja verisuonisairauksien kehitys alkaa lapsuudessa. Vähäinen liikunta lisää vaaraa sairastua sydän- ja verisuonisairauksiin sekä vaikuttaa haitallisesti näiden sairauksien riskitekijöihin läpi elämän. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia nuorten liikuntaa ja sen yhteyttä sydän- ja verisuoniterveyteen. Sydän- ja verisuoniterveyttä tutkittiin riskitekijöiden sekä valtimon laajentumiskyvyn avulla. Tutkittavat koostuivat nuorista, jotka osallistuivat pitkäaikaisen sepelvaltimotaudin ehkäisytutkimuksen (STRIP) 13-vuotistutkimuskäynnille ja jotka raportoivat vapaa-ajan liikuntatottumuksensa (n=560). Liikunnan lisäksi nuorten pituus, paino, verenpaine ja olkavaltimon laajentumiskyky mitattiin sekä analysoitiin laboratorionäytteitä (otettiin verinäyte) ja selvitettiin ruoankäyttöä. Vähäinen vapaa-ajan liikunta oli yleistä etenkin tytöillä. Vapaa-ajallaan vähän liikkuvat pojat viettivät enemmän aikaa televisio- ja tietokoneruudun ääressä kuin vapaa-ajallaan paljon liikkuvat pojat. Äidin, toisin kuin isän, vapaa-ajan liikunta ja paino olivat yhteydessä lapsen vapaa-ajan liikuntaan. Vähän liikkuvat tytöt olivat olleet jo kahden vuoden iästä saakka useammin ylipainoisia kuin runsaammin liikkuvat ikätoverinsa. Sydän- ja verisuonisairauksien riskitekijöiden kasautuminen oli tavallisempaa vähän kuin paljon liikkuvilla nuorilla. Vähän liikkuvilla pojilla oli lisäksi huonompi olkavaltimon laajentumiskyky kuin paljon liikkuvilla pojilla. Tämä on tärkeä löydös, koska valtimon laajentumiskyky kuvannee sydän- ja verisuoniterveyttä jo ennen rakenteellisten muutosten ilmaantumista. Useat nuoret, etenkin tytöt, liikkuivat vähän vapaa-ajallaan. Vähäisellä vapaa-ajan liikunnalla oli haitallinen yhteys sydän- ja verisuonisairauksien riskitekijöihin sekä valtimon laajentumiskykyyn. Nuorten kannustaminen liikunnalliseen elämäntapaan on erittäin tärkeää sydän- ja verisuoniterveyden edistämiseksi sekä nuoren että kansanterveyden kannalta.

Biotransformation and endocrine disruptive effects of contaminants in ringed seals - implications for monitoring and risk assessment

Marine mammals are exposed to persistent organic pollutants (POPs), which may be biotransformed to metabolites some of which are highly toxic. Both POPs and their metabolites may lead to adverse health effects, which have been studied using various biomarkers. Changes in endocrine homeostasis have been suggested to be sensitive biomarkers for contaminant-related effects. The overall objective of this doctoral thesis was to investigate biotransformation capacity of POPs and their potential endocrine disruptive effects in two contrasting ringed seal populations from the low contaminated Svalbard area and from the highly contaminated Baltic Sea. Biotransformation capacity was studied by determining the relationships between congener-specific patterns and concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their hydroxyl (OH)- and/or methylsulfonyl (MeSO₂)-metabolites, and catalytic activities of hepatic xenobiotic-metabolizing phase I and II enzymes. The results suggest that the biotransformation of PCBs, PBDEs and toxaphenes in ringed seals depends on the congener-specific halogen-substitution pattern. Biotransformation products detected in the seals included OH-PCBs, MeSO₂-PCBs and –DDE, pentachlorophenol, 4-OHheptachlorostyrene, and to a minor extent OH-PBDEs. The effects of life history state (moulting and fasting) on contaminant status and potential biomarkers for endocrine disruption, including hormone and vitamin homeostasis, were investigated in the low contaminated ringed seal population from Svalbard. Moulting/fasting status strongly affected thyroid, vitamin A and calcitriol homeostasis, body condition and concentrations of POPs and their OH-metabolites. In contrast, moulting/fasting status was not associated with variations in vitamin E levels. Endocrine disruptive effects on multiple endpoints were investigated in the two contrasting ringed seal populations. The results suggest that thyroid, vitamin A and calcitriol homeostasis may be affected by the exposure of contaminants and/or their metabolites in the Baltic ringed seals. Complex and non-linear relationships were observed between the contaminant levels and the endocrine variables. Positive relationships between circulating free and total thyroid hormone concentration ratios and OH-PCBs suggest that OH-PCBs may mediate the disruption of thyroid hormone transport in plasma. Species differences in thyroid and bone-related effects of contaminants were studied in ringed and grey seals from low contaminated references areas and from the highly contaminated Baltic Sea. The results indicate that these two species living at the same environment approximately at the same trophic level respond in a very different way to contaminant exposure. The results of this thesis suggest that the health status of the Baltic ringed seals has still improved during the last decade. PCB and DDE levels have decreased in these seals and the contaminant-related effects are different today than a decade ago. The health of the Baltic ringed seals is still suggested to be affected by the contaminant exposure. At the present level of the contaminant exposure the Baltic ringed seals seem to be at a zone where their body is able to compensate for the contaminant-mediated endocrine disruption. Based on the results of this thesis, several recommendations that could be applied on monitoring and assessing risk for contaminant effects are provided. Circulating OH-metabolites should be included in monitoring and risk assessment programs due to their high toxic potential. It should be noted that endogenous variables may have complex and highly variable responses to contaminant exposure including non-linear responses. These relationships may be further confounded by life history status. Therefore, it is highly recommended that when using variables related to endocrine homeostasis to investigate/monitor or assess the risk of contaminant effects in seals, the life history status of the animal should be carefully taken into consideration. This applies especially when using thyroid, vitamin A or calcitriolrelated parameters during moulting/fasting period. Extrapolations between species for assessing risk for contaminant effects in phocid seals should be avoided.

Homogeneous Assays for Simplified Screening of HLA-conferred Genetic Disease Risk

The increasing incidence of type 1 diabetes has led researchers on a quest to find the reason behind this phenomenon. The rate of increase is too great to be caused simply by changes in the genetic component, and many environmental factors are under investigation for their possible contribution. These studies require, however, the participation of those individuals most likely to develop the disease, and the approach chosen by many is to screen vast populations to find persons with increased genetic risk factors. The participating individuals are then followed for signs of disease development, and their exposure to suspected environmental factors is studied. The main purpose of this study was to find a suitable tool for easy and inexpensive screening of certain genetic risk markers for type 1 diabetes. The method should be applicable to using whole blood dried on sample collection cards as sample material, since the shipping and storage of samples in this format is preferred. However, the screening of vast sample libraries of extracted genomic DNA should also be possible, if such a need should arise, for example, when studying the effect of newly discovered genetic risk markers. The method developed in this study is based on homogeneous assay chemistry and an asymmetrical polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The generated singlestranded PCR product is probed by lanthanide-labelled, LNA (locked nucleic acid)-spiked, short oligonucleotides with exact complementary sequences. In the case of a perfect match, the probe is hybridised to the product. However, if even a single nucleotide difference occurs, the probe is bound instead of the PCR product to a complementary quencher-oligonucleotide labelled with a dabcyl-moiety, causing the signal of the lanthanide label to be quenched. The method was applied to the screening of the well-known type 1 diabetes risk alleles of the HLA-DQB1 gene. The method was shown to be suitable as an initial screening step including thousands of samples in the scheme used in the TEDDY (The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young) study to identify those individuals at increased genetic risk. The method was further developed into dry-reagent form to allow an even simpler approach to screening. The reagents needed in the assay were in dry format in the reaction vessel, and performing the assay required only the addition of the sample and, if necessary, water to rehydrate the reagents. This allows the assay to be successfully executed even by a person with minimal laboratory experience.

Characteristics of credit risk assessment methods of major Nordic banks in allocating capital when extending credits to large corporations

Credit risk assessment is an integral part of banking. Credit risk means that the return will not materialise in case the customer fails to fulfil its obligations. Thus a key component of banking is setting acceptance criteria for granting loans. Theoretical part of the study focuses on key components of credit assessment methods of Banks in the literature when extending credits to large corporations. Main component is Basel II Accord, which sets regulatory requirement for credit risk assessment methods of banks. Empirical part comprises, as primary source, analysis of major Nordic banks’ annual reports and risk management reports. As secondary source complimentary interviews were carried out with senior credit risk assessment personnel. The findings indicate that all major Nordic banks are using combination of quantitative and qualitative information in credit risk assessment model when extending credits to large corporations. The relative input of qualitative information depends on the selected approach to the credit rating, i.e. point-in-time or through-the-cycle.

Risk Assessment of a Supplier in the Pharmaceutical Industry

The topic of this Master’s Thesis is risk assessment in the supply chain, and the work was done for a company operating in the pharmaceutical industry. The unique features of the industry bring additional challenges to risk management, due to high regulatory, docu-mentation and traceability requirements. The objective of the thesis was to generate a template for assessing the risks in the supply chain of current and potential suppliers of the case company. Risks pertaining to the case setting were sought mainly from in-house expertise of this specific product and supply chain as well as academic research papers and theory on risk management. A questionnaire was set up to assess the found risks on impact, occurrence and possibility of detection. Through this classification of the severity of the risks, the supplier assessment template was formed. A questionnaire template, comprised of the top 10 risks affecting the flow of information and materials in this setting, was formulated to serve as a generic tool for assessing risks in the supply chain of a pharmaceutical company. The template was tested on another supplier for usability and accuracy of found risks, and it demonstrated functioning in a differing supply chain and product setting.

Reactive oxygen species and angiotensin II signaling in vascular cells: implications in cardiovascular disease

Diseases such as hypertension, atherosclerosis, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes are associated with vascular functional and structural changes including endothelial dysfunction, altered contractility and vascular remodeling. Cellular events underlying these processes involve changes in vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) growth, apoptosis/anoikis, cell migration, inflammation, and fibrosis. Many factors influence cellular changes, of which angiotensin II (Ang II) appears to be amongst the most important. The physiological and pathophysiological actions of Ang II are mediated primarily via the Ang II type 1 receptor. Growing evidence indicates that Ang II induces its pleiotropic vascular effects through NADPH-driven generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). ROS function as important intracellular and intercellular second messengers to modulate many downstream signaling molecules, such as protein tyrosine phosphatases, protein tyrosine kinases, transcription factors, mitogen-activated protein kinases, and ion channels. Induction of these signaling cascades leads to VSMC growth and migration, regulation of endothelial function, expression of pro-inflammatory mediators, and modification of extracellular matrix. In addition, ROS increase intracellular free Ca2+ concentration ([Ca2+]i), a major determinant of vascular reactivity. ROS influence signaling molecules by altering the intracellular redox state and by oxidative modification of proteins. In physiological conditions, these events play an important role in maintaining vascular function and integrity. Under pathological conditions ROS contribute to vascular dysfunction and remodeling through oxidative damage. The present review focuses on the biology of ROS in Ang II signaling in vascular cells and discusses how oxidative stress contributes to vascular damage in cardiovascular disease.

A time series analysis of meteorological factors and hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease in the Northern district of Guizhou Province, China

Findings on the effects of weather on health, especially the effects of ambient temperature on overall morbidity, remain inconsistent. We conducted a time series study to examine the acute effects of meteorological factors (mainly air temperature) on daily hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Zunyi City, China, from January 1, 2007 to November 30, 2009. We used the generalized additive model with penalized splines to analyze hospital outpatient admissions, climatic parameters, and covariate data. Results show that, in Zunyi, air temperature was associated with hospital outpatient admission for CVD. When air temperature was less than 10°C, hospital outpatient admissions for CVD increased 1.07-fold with each increase of 1°C, and when air temperature was more than 10°C, an increase in air temperature by 1°C was associated with a 0.99-fold decrease in hospital outpatient admissions for CVD over the previous year. Our analyses provided statistically significant evidence that in China meteorological factors have adverse effects on the health of the general population. Further research with consistent methodology is needed to clarify the magnitude of these effects and to show which populations and individuals are vulnerable.

Risk Assessment of Modern Landfill Structures in Finland

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate environmental permits of landfills with respect to the appropriateness of risk assessments focusing on contaminant migration, structures capable to protect the environment, waste and leachate management and existing environmental impacts of landfills. According to the requirements, a risk assessment is always required to demonstrate compliance with environmental protection requirements if the environmental permit decision deviates from the set requirements. However, there is a reason to doubt that all relevant risk factors are identified in current risk assessment practices in order to protect people end environment. In this dissertation, risk factors were recognized in 12 randomly selected landfills. Based on this analysis, a structural risk assessment method was created. The method was verified with two case examples. Several development needs were found in the risk assessments of the environmental permit decisions. The risk analysis equations used in the decisions did not adequately take into account all the determining factors like waste prospects, total risk quantification or human delineated factors. Instead of focusing on crucial factors, the landfill environmental protection capability is simply expressed via technical factors like hydraulic conductivity. In this thesis, it could be shown, that using adequate risk assessment approaches the most essential environmental impacts can be taken into account by consideration of contaminant transport mechanisms, leachate effects, and artificial landfill structures. The developed structural risk analysing (SRA) method shows, that landfills structures could be designed in a more cost-efficient way taking advantage of recycled or by-products. Additionally, the research results demonstrate that the environmental protection requirements of landfills should be updated to correspond to the capability to protect the environment instead of the current simplified requirements related to advective transport only.

Estimate of dietary intake of chloropropanols (3-MCPD and 1,3-DCP) and health risk assessment

Chloropropanols, including 3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol (3-MCPD) and 1,3-dichloropropan-2-ol (1,3-DCP), comprise a group of chemical contaminants with carcinogenic and genotoxic properties. They have been found in a variety of processed foods and food ingredients, such as hydrolyzed vegetable protein, soy sauce, cereal-based products, malt-derived ingredients, and smoked foods. This study aimed to assess the dietary exposure to 3-MCPD and 1,3-DCP in Brazil and verify whether the presence of these substances in foods could represent health risks. The intake was calculated by combining data on food consumption, provided by the Consumer Expenditure Survey 2008-2009, with the levels of contaminant occurrence determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The exposure to 3-MCPD ranged from 0.06 to 0.51 µg.kg bw-1.day-1 considering average and high consumers, while the intake of 1,3-DCP was estimated to be 0.0036 µg.kg bw-1.day-1 in the worst case scenario evaluated. Based on these results, it was verified that the Brazilians' exposure to chloropropanols does not present a significant health risk. However, the consumption of specific foods containing high levels of 3-MCPD could exceed the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake of 2 µg.kg bw-1 established for this compound and, therefore, represent a potential concern.