Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Geometric Characterizations for Patterson-Sullivan Measures of Geometrically Finite Kleinian Groups

The main results of this thesis show that a Patterson-Sullivan measure of a non-elementary geometrically finite Kleinian group can always be characterized using geometric covering and packing constructions. This means that if the standard covering and packing constructions are modified in a suitable way, one can use either one of them to construct a geometric measure which is identical to the Patterson-Sullivan measure. The main results generalize and modify results of D. Sullivan which show that one can sometimes use the standard covering construction to construct a suitable geometric measure and sometimes the standard packing construction. Sullivan has shown also that neither or both of the standard constructions can be used to construct the geometric measure in some situations. The main modifications of the standard constructions are based on certain geometric properties of limit sets of Kleinian groups studied first by P. Tukia. These geometric properties describe how closely the limit set of a given Kleinian group resembles euclidean planes or spheres of varying dimension on small scales. The main idea is to express these geometric properties in a quantitative form which can be incorporated into the gauge functions used in the modified covering and packing constructions. Certain estimation results for general conformal measures of Kleinian groups play a crucial role in the proofs of the main results. These estimation results are generalizations and modifications of similar results considered, among others, by B. Stratmann, D. Sullivan, P. Tukia and S. Velani. The modified constructions are in general defined without reference to Kleinian groups, so they or their variants may prove useful in some other contexts in addition to that of Kleinian groups.

Performance of cellular CDMA with voice/data traffic with an SIR based admission control

We analyze the performance of an SIR based admission control strategy in cellular CDMA systems with both voice and data traffic. Most studies In the current literature to estimate CDMA system capacity with both voice and data traf-Bc do not take signal-tlFlnterference ratio (SIR) based admission control into account In this paper, we present an analytical approach to evaluate the outage probability for voice trafllc, the average system throughput and the mean delay for data traffic for a volce/data CDMA system which employs an SIR based admission controL We show that for a dataaniy system, an improvement of about 25% In both the Erlang capacity as well as the mean delay performance is achieved with an SIR based admission control as compared to code availability based admission control. For a mixed voice/data srtem with 10 Erlangs of voice traffic, the Lmprovement in the mean delay performance for data Is about 40%.Ah, for a mean delay of 50 ms with 10 Erlangs voice traffic, the data Erlang capacity improves by about 9%.

How to run a campaign: Optimal control of SIS and SIR information epidemics

Information spreading in a population can be modeled as an epidemic. Campaigners (e.g., election campaign managers, companies marketing products or movies) are interested in spreading a message by a given deadline, using limited resources. In this paper, we formulate the above situation as an optimal control problem and the solution (using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle) prescribes an optimal resource allocation over the time of the campaign. We consider two different scenarios-in the first, the campaigner can adjust a direct control (over time) which allows her to recruit individuals from the population (at some cost) to act as spreaders for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. In the second case, we allow the campaigner to adjust the effective spreading rate by incentivizing the infected in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, in addition to the direct recruitment. We consider time varying information spreading rate in our formulation to model the changing interest level of individuals in the campaign, as the deadline is reached. In both the cases, we show the existence of a solution and its uniqueness for sufficiently small campaign deadlines. For the fixed spreading rate, we show the effectiveness of the optimal control strategy against the constant control strategy, a heuristic control strategy and no control. We show the sensitivity of the optimal control to the spreading rate profile when it is time varying. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Approaches toward (eta(2)-HX) (X = H, SiR (R = Me-3 or Me2Ph), CH3) sigma-complexes of ruthenium

Two new Ru(II)-complexes RuH(Tpms)(PPh3)(2)] 1 (Tpms - (C3H3N2)(3)CSO3, tris-(pyrazolyl) methane sulfonate) and Ru(OTf)(Tpms)(PPh3)(2)] 2 (OTf = CF3SO3) have been synthesized and characterized wherein Ru-H and Ru-OTf are the key reactive centers. Reaction of 1 with HOTf results in the Ru(eta(2)-H-2)(Tpms)(PPh3)(2)]OTf] complex 3, whereas reaction of 1 with Me3SiOTf affords the dihydrogen complex 3 and complex 1 through an unobserved sigma-silane intermediate. In addition, an attempt to characterize the sigma methane complex via reaction of complex 1 with CH3OTf yields complex 2 and free methane. On the other hand, reaction of Ru(OTf)(Tpms)(PPh3)(2)] 2 with H-2 and PhMe2SiH at low temperature resulted in sigma-H-2, 3 and a probable sigma-silane complexes, respectively. However, no sigma-methane complex was observed for the reaction of complex 2 with methane even at low temperature. (C) 2014 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Entre gauchos y gringos. Costumbres nacionales y extranjeras en Santa Fe (1880-1900)

La política de fomento inmigratorio impulsada en la Argentina a partir de mediados del siglo XIX incluyó, entre sus objetivos, el de generar un cambio de costumbres en la población nativa. En este artículo, además de describirse la realidad resultante como consecuencia de la incorporación de pautas culturales foráneas, se analizan –desde un recorte espacial santafesino centrado en las dos últimas décadas del siglo XIX– comportamientos puestos de manifiesto por las élites políticas e intelectuales de la provincia con respecto a las costumbres nacionales y extranjeras. Lo que se busca es evaluar si dichos comportamientos pudieron encontrarse condicionados por las diferentes adscripciones político-ideológicas y/o por las variantes circunstancias históricas.

El abastecimiento de agua corriente en la ciudad de Córdoba (1900-1910) : continuidad y cambio en la gestión

Resumen: Desde un punto de vista general el agua es definida en la actualidad como un recurso natural no renovable en cantidad, recuperable en calidad y con posibilidad de nuevo uso (re-uso) en continua mutación dentro del ciclo hidrológico. A la vez posee las categorías de bien común como elemento esencial para la vida humana y que como tal no tiene precio, y de recurso hídrico con dimensión económica como insumo, que supone un valor mensurable. Los recursos hídricos y su gestión forman parte de la administración pública, como pueden serlo la energía o la salud. La organización adecuada de un servicio, y las formas institucionales a través de las que se presta, varían de acuerdo a las épocas, los costes tecnológicos, los de distribución, organización y regulación, resultando un aspecto importante del análisis la implementación y funcionamiento del servicio público. Atendiendo a estos aspectos teóricos, este trabajo continua con la problemática del abastecimiento de agua corriente en la ciudad de Córdoba, ahora en la primera década del siglo XX, manteniendo el supuesto de que las dificultades para el abastecimiento de agua obedecen a razones de orden natural, a dificultades económicas y a enfrentamientos políticos, en el marco de un Estado que aún posee limitaciones de índole institucional y administrativo, por lo cual intervendrán el gobierno provincial y Nacional para la concreción de las obras de salubridad, en una ciudad y un país enrolados en el proceso de modernización impulsado por el deseo de adecuación al modelo de vida europeo. Seguimos analizando las fuentes inéditas del Archivo Histórico Municipal de Córdoba, fuentes oficiales editas, publicaciones periódicas y bibliografía tanto general como específica.

Estudios sobre población urbana en el siglo XX : nacer y morir en Rosario, 1900-1925

Resumen: El objetivo de este estudio es el de examinar las fuentes históricas que permitan conocer, además de la composición poblacional y la estructura ocupacional, las causas de enfermedad y muerte, que reflejen algunas alternativas del desenvolvimiento de la comunidad rosarina, de la vida corriente del habitante de la ciudad, en las primeras décadas del siglo XX, momento en que se inicia aquí el proceso denominado de transición demográfica.

Arthur Virgílio Filho

Apresenta as contribuições do ex-Deputado e ex-Senador Arthur Virgílio Filho no âmbito do Congresso Nacional. Inclui a sua biografia, atuação política e seus discursos mais significativos.

La modernización urbana de Mondragón hacia 1900: la contribución de Pedro de Viteri

[ES] Pedro de Viteri (Mondragón, 1833-Biarritz, 1908) llegó a su villa natal en 1893, después de haber vivido en Francia desde que era un niño. Volvió con el ánimo de emprender una labor filantrópica que cambió la fisonomía urbana de Mondragón, imprimiendo un aire nuevo y moderno a una villa que a la sazón distaba mucho del ambiente en el que él se había movido.

História do movimento político, que no anno de 1842 teve lugar na provincia de Minas Geraes

José Antonio Marinho nasceu em Minas Gerais, em 1803, e morreu no Rio de Janeiro, em 1853. Em 1823, de passagem pela Bahia, envolveu-se nas lutas políticas daquele ano. Seguiu depois para Pernambuco, onde tomou parte, em 1824, na Confederação do Equador. Entrou para o Seminário de Olinda, mas denúncias de sua participação nos acontecimentos de 1824 impediram sua ordenação. Voltou, então, para Minas Gerais e conseguiu concluir sua formação sacerdotal. Ordenado em 1829, voltou às lides políticas, tornando-se advogado, jornalista e deputado provincial. Em 1836m elegeu-se deputado-geral por Minas Gerais, em 1842, tomou parte na Revolução Liberal, da qual foi primeiro historiador. Apesar de ter participado dos acontecimentos que historiou, tendo sido, por isso, acusado de parcial, o autor primou “pela verdade da exposição dos fatos”, como disse o Barão Homem de Melo. Com a autoridade de historiador da Revolução Liberal de 1842, Aluísio de Almeida afirmou que, sem a Historia do movimento politico, que no anno de 1842 teve lugar na Provincia de Minas Geraes, seria impossível escrever sobre aquele movimento. Obra rara, valorizada por treze litografias, que Aluísio de Almeida considera, com razão, “preciosas” : nove retratos, quatro vistas e uma planta, estas desdobradas. As litografias do primeiro volume se constituem de retratos do autor e de J. Feliciano, J. P. Dias de Carvalho e T. B. Ottoni, vistas da Praça de Barbacena, da Vila de Queluz e do Arraial da Lagoa Santa e planta do Arraial de Santa Luzia e suas imediações; e as do segundo volume de retratos de R. T. d’Aguiar, D.J. C. de Mendonça Franco, J. G. Teixeira de Carvalho, Diogo Antônio Feijó e Manuel Alves Branco e vista de Sabará.

Collecção das Leis do Imperio do Brasil de 1842

Parte 1 - Decisões

Collecção das Leis da Republica dos Estados Unidos do Brazil de 1900

Parte 1 - Atos do Poder Legislativo.