Bayesian L-optimal exact design of experiments for biological kinetic models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian outlier analysis in binary regression

We propose alternative approaches to analyze residuals in binary regression models based on random effect components. Our preferred model does not depend upon any tuning parameter, being completely automatic. Although the focus is mainly on accommodation of outliers, the proposed methodology is also able to detect them. Our approach consists of evaluating the posterior distribution of random effects included in the linear predictor. The evaluation of the posterior distributions of interest involves cumbersome integration, which is easily dealt with through stochastic simulation methods. We also discuss different specifications of prior distributions for the random effects. The potential of these strategies is compared in a real data set. The main finding is that the inclusion of extra variability accommodates the outliers, improving the adjustment of the model substantially, besides correctly indicating the possible outliers.

Bayesian estimation of generalized exponential distribution under noninformative priors

The generalized exponential distribution, proposed by Gupta and Kundu (1999), is a good alternative to standard lifetime distributions as exponential, Weibull or gamma. Several authors have considered the problem of Bayesian estimation of the parameters of generalized exponential distribution, assuming independent gamma priors and other informative priors. In this paper, we consider a Bayesian analysis of the generalized exponential distribution by assuming the conventional non-informative prior distributions, as Jeffreys and reference prior, to estimate the parameters. These priors are compared with independent gamma priors for both parameters. The comparison is carried out by examining the frequentist coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals. We shown that maximal data information prior implies in an improper posterior distribution for the parameters of a generalized exponential distribution. It is also shown that the choice of a parameter of interest is very important for the reference prior. The different choices lead to different reference priors in this case. Numerical inference is illustrated for the parameters by considering data set of different sizes and using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods.

STOMACH CONTENTS ANALYSIS of WHITE MARLIN (TETRAPTURUS ALBIDUS) CAUGHT OFF SOUTHERN and SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL: A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS.

This study proposes to ascertain the importance of each alimentary category in the Tetrapturus albidus diet composition, as well as to propose the use of the Bayesian approach for analysis of these data. The stomachs were collected during fishing cruises carried out by the Santos-SP longliner from July 2007 to June 2008. For Bayesian model formulation, each alimentary item was clustered in four food categories as: teleost, cephalopod, crustaceans, and others. To estimate the proportion of each food category, the multinomial model with Dirichlet conjugate prior distribution was used. After the stomach contents analysis, 133 food items were identified, which belonged to 9 taxa. The most important food category is constituted by cephalopod molluscs, followed by teleost fishes. The food category comprised of crustaceans presents a low contribution and in this case it could be considered to be an accidental food item. The Bayesian approach means a distinct view in relation to traditional methods, as it permits one to incorporate information obtained from the literature. It should be useful to analyse great top predators, which are usually caught in small numbers.

Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach

In the context of Bayesian statistical analysis, elicitation is the process of formulating a prior density f(.) about one or more uncertain quantities to represent a person's knowledge and beliefs. Several different methods of eliciting prior distributions for one unknown parameter have been proposed. However, there are relatively few methods for specifying a multivariate prior distribution and most are just applicable to specific classes of problems and/or based on restrictive conditions, such as independence of variables. Besides, many of these procedures require the elicitation of variances and correlations, and sometimes elicitation of hyperparameters which are difficult for experts to specify in practice. Garthwaite et al. (2005) discuss the different methods proposed in the literature and the difficulties of eliciting multivariate prior distributions. We describe a flexible method of eliciting multivariate prior distributions applicable to a wide class of practical problems. Our approach does not assume a parametric form for the unknown prior density f(.), instead we use nonparametric Bayesian inference, modelling f(.) by a Gaussian process prior distribution. The expert is then asked to specify certain summaries of his/her distribution, such as the mean, mode, marginal quantiles and a small number of joint probabilities. The analyst receives that information, treating it as a data set D with which to update his/her prior beliefs to obtain the posterior distribution for f(.). Theoretical properties of joint and marginal priors are derived and numerical illustrations to demonstrate our approach are given. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Analysis of Spectral ARMA Model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Bayesian approach for constructing genetic maps when markers are miscoded

The advent of molecular markers has created opportunities for a better understanding of quantitative inheritance and for developing novel strategies for genetic improvement of agricultural species, using information on quantitative trait loci (QTL). A QTL analysis relies on accurate genetic marker maps. At present, most statistical methods used for map construction ignore the fact that molecular data may be read with error. Often, however, there is ambiguity about some marker genotypes. A Bayesian MCMC approach for inferences about a genetic marker map when random miscoding of genotypes occurs is presented, and simulated and real data sets are analyzed. The results suggest that unless there is strong reason to believe that genotypes are ascertained without error, the proposed approach provides more reliable inference on the genetic map.

How the delphi and AHP methods are aiding to define the critical success factors priorities in a digital factory project implementation

Digital factory is a concept that offers a collaborative approach to enhance product and production engineering processes through simulation. Products, processes and resources are modeled to be used to develop and test the product conception and manufacturing processes, before their use in the real factory. The purpose of this paper is to present the steps to identify the Critical Success Factors (CSF) priorities in a digital factory project implementation in a Brazilian company and how the Delphi and AHP Methods are aiding to identify these CSF priorities. Copyright © 2008 SAE International.

Selecting candidate labels for hierarchical document clusters using association rules

One way to organize knowledge and make its search and retrieval easier is to create a structural representation divided by hierarchically related topics. Once this structure is built, it is necessary to find labels for each of the obtained clusters. In many cases the labels have to be built using only the terms in the documents of the collection. This paper presents the SeCLAR (Selecting Candidate Labels using Association Rules) method, which explores the use of association rules for the selection of good candidates for labels of hierarchical document clusters. The candidates are processed by a classical method to generate the labels. The idea of the proposed method is to process each parent-child relationship of the nodes as an antecedent-consequent relationship of association rules. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the precision and recall of labels obtained by classical methods. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Improving hierarchical document cluster labels through candidate term selection

One way to organize knowledge and make its search and retrieval easier is to create a structural representation divided by hierarchically related topics. Once this structure is built, it is necessary to find labels for each of the obtained clusters. In many cases the labels must be built using all the terms in the documents of the collection. This paper presents the SeCLAR method, which explores the use of association rules in the selection of good candidates for labels of hierarchical document clusters. The purpose of this method is to select a subset of terms by exploring the relationship among the terms of each document. Thus, these candidates can be processed by a classical method to generate the labels. An experimental study demonstrates the potential of the proposed approach to improve the precision and recall of labels obtained by classical methods only considering the terms which are potentially more discriminative. © 2012 - IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved.

A bayesian analysis for the parameters of the exponential-logarithmic distribution

The exponential-logarithmic is a new lifetime distribution with decreasing failure rate and interesting applications in the biological and engineering sciences. Thus, a Bayesian analysis of the parameters would be desirable. Bayesian estimation requires the selection of prior distributions for all parameters of the model. In this case, researchers usually seek to choose a prior that has little information on the parameters, allowing the data to be very informative relative to the prior information. Assuming some noninformative prior distributions, we present a Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Jeffreys prior is derived for the parameters of exponential-logarithmic distribution and compared with other common priors such as beta, gamma, and uniform distributions. In this article, we show through a simulation study that the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist except under restrictive conditions. In addition, the posterior density is sometimes bimodal when an improper prior density is used. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

A study of neolignan compounds with biological activity against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis by using quantum chemical and chemometric methods

Métodos quimiométricos (estatísticos) são empregados para classificar um conjunto de compostos derivados de neolignanas com atividade biológica contra a Paracoccidioides brasiliensis. O método AM1 (Austin Model 1) foi utilizado para calcular um conjunto de descritores moleculares (propriedades) para os compostos em estudo. A seguir, os descritores foram analisados utilizando os seguintes métodos de reconhecimento de padrões: Análise de Componentes Principais (PCA), Análise Hierárquica de Agrupamentos (HCA) e o método de K-vizinhos mais próximos (KNN). Os métodos PCA e HCA mostraram-se bastante eficientes para classificação dos compostos estudados em dois grupos (ativos e inativos). Três descritores moleculares foram responsáveis pela separação entre os compostos ativos e inativos: energia do orbital molecular mais alto ocupado (EHOMO), ordem de ligação entre os átomos C1'-R7 (L14) e ordem de ligação entre os átomos C5'-R6 (L22). Como as variáveis responsáveis pela separação entre compostos ativos e inativos são descritores eletrônicos, conclui-se que efeitos eletrônicos podem desempenhar um importante papel na interação entre receptor biológico e compostos derivados de neolignanas com atividade contra a Paracoccidioides brasiliensis.

Bayesian inference for two-parameter gamma distribution assuming different noninformative priors

In this paper distinct prior distributions are derived in a Bayesian inference of the two-parameters Gamma distribution. Noniformative priors, such as Jeffreys, reference, MDIP, Tibshirani and an innovative prior based on the copula approach are investigated. We show that the maximal data information prior provides in an improper posterior density and that the different choices of the parameter of interest lead to different reference priors in this case. Based on the simulated data sets, the Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the unknown parameters are computed and the performance of the prior distributions are evaluated. The Bayesian analysis is conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to generate samples from the posterior distributions under the above priors.

The zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution: Bayesian inference, regression modeling and influence diagnostic

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Burnout in dental students: effectiveness of different methods

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)