Laws of large numbers for non-additive probabilities

We apply the concept of exchangeable random variables to the case of non-additive robability distributions exhibiting ncertainty aversion, and in the lass generated bya convex core convex non-additive probabilities, ith a convex core). We are able to rove two versions of the law of arge numbers (de Finetti's heorems). By making use of two efinitions. of independence we rove two versions of the strong law f large numbers. It turns out that e cannot assure the convergence of he sample averages to a constant. e then modal the case there is a true" probability distribution ehind the successive realizations of the uncertain random variable. In this case convergence occurs. This result is important because it renders true the intuition that it is possible "to learn" the "true" additive distribution behind an uncertain event if one repeatedly observes it (a sufficiently large number of times). We also provide a conjecture regarding the "Iearning" (or updating) process above, and prove a partia I result for the case of Dempster-Shafer updating rule and binomial trials.

Continuidade e descontinuidade administrativa: uma análise de fatores que contribuem para a manutenção de programas, projetos e atividades públicas de êxito em governos locais brasileiro

Descontinuidade administrativa, ou o rompimento de atividades e programas na troca de governos e autoridades federais, estaduais e municipais, tem sido tópico constante de comentário e elemento central da imagem da área pública Brasileira presente na conversa quotidiana. Curiosamente, são poucos os estudos empíricos sobre a questão como também são poucas as reflexões sobre os fatores que podem contribuir para a continuidade. O estudo busca contribuir nos dois eixos a partir da análise de ações governamentais em 89 prefeituras no período de 1995 a 1997.

A prestação de um serviço público de qualidade: a divulgação eletrônica de informações do IBGE sob a óptica dos estudantes de administração e economia dos cursos de graduação da FGV/RJ em 2002

For the last 20 years, the State - and consequently the services it provides - is being redefined from its objectives to its validity as a guiding instance of the citizens' destinies. This redefinition is pushed by a strong and generalized tendency that discuss its role and power in the new worldwide scenario, making the State to suggest the introduction of a methodology to update the public management and the revision of the State properties forms. In this context, stands out the necessity of the public services adaptation to the worldwide tendencies of global information and the reduction of the distance between citizens, governments and information. According to this conjecture, the Brazilian Public Administration, is now trying to establish a base of support in the modern information technology in order to develop the public policy and, consequently, provide services for the society. Based on this intention, IBGE introduced a project for electronic spread of data and information produced in the ambit of the Institution. The purpose of the presented dissertation is to answer the following central question: Does the IBGE project for electronic spread of information meet expectations of the students in the FGV/RJ (2002) Administration and Economy graduation courses, properly accomplishing the provision of a public service?

Corrupção: estudo sobre as formas de mensuração, seus determinantes e perspectivas sobre as formas de combate

O objetivo essencial da presente tese de doutorado é reunir, em um só trabalho, uma perspectiva sobre a evolução dos estudos sobre corrupção na literatura. Ao abordar a questão de mensuração, e os impactos de características das políticas públicas, de características institucionais dos municípios e de programas de capacitação de agentes públicos sobre a incidência de corrupção, busco apresentar, através de exame e observação minuciosos, um retrato sobre a questão no Brasil. Os resultados obtidos me permitem conjecturar sobre algumas questões. Primeiramente, a mensuração da corrupção é imprescindível para que se possam desenhar políticas públicas eficazes e menos sujeitas às práticas corruptas. Em segundo lugar, destaco a necessidade de se buscar associações entre as características de desenho das políticas públicas, características municipais e o fenômeno da corrupção. Dessa forma, mesmo que não sejam identificadas relações causais claras, a indicação de algum grau de correlação entre essas características e a incidência da corrupção pode auxiliar os agentes públicos no desempenho de suas funções e na proposição de políticas públicas menos suscetíveis à ocorrência de fraudes. Finalmente, evidencio a manifesta relação entre a capacitação de agentes públicos e a incidência de corrupção: de acordo com os resultados aqui obtidos, capacitar agentes da administração pública, no que tange a legislação e a conformidade na aplicação de recursos públicos, produz efeitos positivos sobre a gestão pública, com impacto direto sobre o número de constatações associadas à corrupção. De posse de todos esses resultados, espero estimular pesquisas ainda mais detalhadas acerca do fenômeno da corrupção no Brasil, idealmente contribuindo para que a gestão de recursos públicos no país se torne cada vez mais alinhada aos objetivos de desenvolvimento econômico e social.

Practice location of physicians: a discrete choice model approach

Economists and policymakers have long been concerned with increasing the supply of health professionals in rural and remote areas. This work seeks to understand which factors influence physicians’ choice of practice location right after completing residency. Differently from previous papers, we analyse the Brazilian missalocation and assess the particularities of developing countries. We use a discrete choice model approach with a multinomial logit specification. Two rich databases are employed containing the location and wage of formally employed physicians as well as details from their post-graduation. Our main findings are that amenities matter, physicians have a strong tendency to remain in the region they completed residency and salaries are significant in the choice of urban, but not rural, communities. We conjecture this is due to attachments built during training and infrastructure concerns.

The consequences of the culture aspect and the power distance in the execution of global strategies in multinational companies in Brazil

One of the challenges presented by the current conjecture in Global Companies is to recognize and understand that the culture and levels in structure of the Power Distance in Organizations in different countries contribute, significantly, toward the failure or success of their strategies. The alignment between the implementation and execution of new strategies for projects intended for the success of the Organization as a whole, rather than as an individual part thereof, is an important step towards reducing the impacts of Power Distance (PDI) on the success of business strategies. A position at odds with this understanding by Companies creates boundaries that increase organizational chasms, also taking into consideration relevant aspects such as, FSAs (Firm-Specific Advantages) and CSAs (Country-Specific Advantages). It is also important that the Organizations based in countries or regions of low Power Distance (PDI) between its individuals be more flexible and prepared to ask and to hear the suggestions from Regional and Local Offices. Thus, the purpose of this study is to highlight the elements of effective strategy implementation considering the relevant aspects at all levels of global corporate culture that justify the influences of power distance when implementing new strategies and also to minimize the impacts of this internal business relationship. This study also recognizes that other corporate and cultural aspects are relevant for the success of business strategies so consider, for instance, the lack of alignment between global and regional/local organizations, the need for competent leadership resources, as well as the challenges that indicate the distance between the hierarchical levels ─ Headquarters and Regional Office ─ as some of the various causes that prevent the successful execution of global strategies. Finally, we show that the execution of the strategy cannot be treated as a construction solely created by the Headquarters or by only one Board and that it needs to be understood as a system aimed at interacting with the surroundings.

O diferencial entre as curvas de juros doméstica e externa em reais é uma evidência para o argumento de "incerteza jurisdicional"?

O trabalho faz uma análise sobre as taxas de juros brasileiras, além das principais características da curva soberana de juros nominais, dando ênfase aos títulos pré-fixados emitidos pelo governo em moeda local, no mercado doméstico e externo, onde notamos a ocorrência de um fenômeno bastante peculiar, que é o diferencial de rendimento e de maturidade existentes entre os dois mercados. Arida, Bacha e Lara-Resende (2004) conjecturam sobre a existência de um risco inerente ao país, chamado por eles de “incerteza jurisdicional”, relacionado às instituições brasileiras, e que estaria por trás das altas taxas de juros e da inexistência de um mercado de crédito doméstico de longo prazo. É feito um diagnóstico mais detalhado sobre as possíveis causas do fenômeno de maior maturidade e menor rendimento dos títulos emitidos no mercado externo em relação aos títulos do mercado interno, notando-se que ambos os fenômenos – dos altos juros brasileiros e da inexistência de um mercado juros de longo prazo – estão diretamente relacionados. As conclusões sobre as possíveis causas para o diferencial de rendimento entre os títulos locais e externos emitidos em Reais dizem respeito tanto aos fatores quantitativos, relacionados aos custos de investimento no Brasil e ao risco de conversibilidade, que contribuem em parte para aumentar as taxas exigidas para os títulos locais, bem como aos fatores qualitativos, como piores instituições no Brasil em relação às instituições externas. A diferença de maturidade entre os títulos também advém de questões institucionais, o que reafirma de certo modo a teoria de “incerteza jurisdicional” para explicar este fenômeno.

Undersampled Critical Branching Processes on Small-World and Random Networks Fail to Reproduce the Statistics of Spike Avalanches

The power-law size distributions obtained experimentally for neuronal avalanches are an important evidence of criticality in the brain. This evidence is supported by the fact that a critical branching process exhibits the same exponent t~3=2. Models at criticality have been employed to mimic avalanche propagation and explain the statistics observed experimentally. However, a crucial aspect of neuronal recordings has been almost completely neglected in the models: undersampling. While in a typical multielectrode array hundreds of neurons are recorded, in the same area of neuronal tissue tens of thousands of neurons can be found. Here we investigate the consequences of undersampling in models with three different topologies (two-dimensional, small-world and random network) and three different dynamical regimes (subcritical, critical and supercritical). We found that undersampling modifies avalanche size distributions, extinguishing the power laws observed in critical systems. Distributions from subcritical systems are also modified, but the shape of the undersampled distributions is more similar to that of a fully sampled system. Undersampled supercritical systems can recover the general characteristics of the fully sampled version, provided that enough neurons are measured. Undersampling in two-dimensional and small-world networks leads to similar effects, while the random network is insensitive to sampling density due to the lack of a well-defined neighborhood. We conjecture that neuronal avalanches recorded from local field potentials avoid undersampling effects due to the nature of this signal, but the same does not hold for spike avalanches. We conclude that undersampled branching-process-like models in these topologies fail to reproduce the statistics of spike avalanches.

Memórias de um palhaço: O rito de passagem de Roger Avanzi para o palhaço Picolino II

This dissertaion reflects about life's trajectory of a specific clown: Roger Avanzi, who gives animus to the clown Picolino II. The main objective is to promove reflections about the insertion of the clowns in the universe of the circus, to make us comprehend the process of formation of a clown formed in a traditional circus family. In this research, we begin of the conjecture that, through the individual memory we can think about rebuild the process of a professional's integral formation.Then, we trace the itinerary of Roger Avanzi, the clown Picolino II, think that it has possibilities, in this case, to discuss about what is a clown's formation when it come from a traditional circus family. To walk on this universe, a huge numer of authors that deeply studyed about the circus ans the clowns, like: Avanzi; Tamaoki (2004), Bolognesi (2003), Castro (2005), Pantano (2007), Ruiz (1987), Silva (1997) e Torres (1998). We bring then, a theoric base that certainly, fortifies and corroborates our thoughts and reflections about the universe of circus and the trajectory of clown's formation, with special atention to Roger Avanzi, fundamentals i studies about it and with memories like Halbwachs's (2004) and Bosi's (1994). The reflections enabled to conclude that a clown doesn't born done; it becomes in the cultural trajectory, in which all the human are inserted

Análise das interpretações do governo Evo Morales: o legado histórico e o poder nacional-indígena

This work aims to analyze the interpretations about Evo Morales' government in Bolivia. For such, it proposes a theoretical reclaim of Marxism in Latin America, as well as of Bolivian political history since the 1952 Revolution, going through the crisis in Pacted Democracy intensified in the five-year conjuncture of struggles started in 2000 up to the election and reelection of Morales. It departs from an empirical prior conjecture taken from a qualitative analysis and a broad literature review to analyze the different interpretations of the Bolivian political process from Marxist theoretical matrices. After this historical recovery and this reading of contemporary Bolivia, it concludes with a consideration about the formation of a possible new block of power in the country, with the retaking of nationalism and Indianism as revolutionary reasons

ACRE: uma experiência inovadora de Governança?

About two decades ago Brazil has been suffered some important political changes on its government and supporter systems. In these changes the Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers support) has been researched significant results as much legislation as executive ways. These conquests propitiate a structure for it to get an alternative motion in order to manage public goods by petista government way. Trying to examinate this we can study the Partido dos Trabalhadores government experience in Acre (1999-2002) to know about why the PT government characteristics are different from the others. To do this we assumed to conjecture a popular participation with priorities inversion and ethics in public resources administration. These are the elements of PT government way. This way we started our work making an evaluation of its bibliography. Them we do a field inquiry to analyses documents of the government projects (budget rules law, papers, approved laws, IBGE, PNUD, TSE) and semi-structured interviews with some characters of recent political Acres life. The scheme and the analysis about these givens disclose that weren t confirmed our hypothesis in part, since PT remained old local politics habitus. In other side the executive administration on PT government has got to inflect the Governance . Further on an efficient management as World Bank dispossess but PT absolve many requests of progressive sectors as well it expanded the society participation to resolutions process. By a cabinets enlargement. So it rescues a total administrative course which is printed in the called petista government way. Personally we think so it means important advancements in this Acre government way

Educação corporativa para Micro e Pequenas empresas: aplicação do MADEC em empresas do setor supermercadista

This study searches to supply an existing gap in the empirical research about the performance of controllers of Micron and Small Companies (MSCs) in the context of corporative education (EC) through the Method of Support of Decision in Corporative Education (MSDCE). In the context of MCSs, this is a pioneering work, for other works related to this thematic searched in literature are limited to conjecture the possibility of its implantation via cooperation between companies; moreover, they do not apply any type of diagnosis method or viability. The object of study is an association of supermarkets of the city of Natal/RN, composed by 16 stores, of what 14 had been searched. The main objective of this work was to apply the first stage of the MSDCE and to verify the possibility of implanting the Corporative Education in the searched MSCs. As a result, it was obtained the profile of the companies and the validation of the above-mentioned Method. The phase of diagnosis conceived through the implantation of the first stage occurred through visits to the stores, interviews, application of questionnaires and place observation. The first stage - strategical analysis for professional education - was divided in two phases: analysis of the current corporative situation and available identification of the involved difficulties and resources. The implantation of the first stage of the MSDCE in the Association of Supermarkets Parceiros da Economia demanded a mapping of abilities and demonstrated how the education management works, the main difficulties and limitations of the MCSs of the supermerket branch of Natal/RN. Beyond the technological aspects, it was verified that cultural and educational aspects need to be worked to reach efficiency in the process of implantation of a corporative education program

On the zeros of polynomials: An extension of the Enestrom-Kakeya theorem

This paper presents an extension of the Enestrom-Kakeya theorem concerning the roots of a polynomial that arises from the analysis of the stability of Brown (K, L) methods. The generalization relates to relaxing one of the inequalities on the coefficients of the polynomial. Two results concerning the zeros of polynomials will be proved, one of them providing a partial answer to a conjecture by Meneguette (1994)[6]. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A metafísica de Isaac Newton

The general objective of this dissertation is to analyze the metaphysical aspects of "rational mechanics" of Isaac Newton, clarifying, by scientific and philosophical discourse, their main elements, with emphasis to the presence of one entity infinitely rational behind all the phenomena of nature, and to the Newton's insight as certain empiricist which, however, accepts deductions metaphysics; a philosopher-scientist. The specific objectives are detailed below: a) brief presentation of the development of modern science, since the Pre-Socratics, seeking to understand the historical conjecture that enabled the rise of Newtonian mechanics; b) presentation of the elements of scientific methodology and philosophical, aimed at comprehension of certain "Newtonian methodology", understanding how this specific methodology able to present empirical aspects, mathematics, philosophic and religious in communion; c) to understand, from the Newtonian concepts, both concerning man's role in the world as the "notional notions" of mass, space, time and movement, necessary for analysis and understanding of certain metaphysical aspects in the Newtonian physics; d) to present the Newtonian concepts related to the ether, to understand why it necessarily assumes metaphysics characteristics and mediation between the bodies; e) to present and understand the factors that lead the empiricist Newton to assume the religion in his mechanics, as well as, the existence and functions of God in nature, to object to the higher content of his metaphysics; f) to highlight the metaphysical elements of his classical mechanics, that confirm the presence of concepts like God Creator and Preserver of the natural laws; g) at last, to analyze the importance of Newton to the modern metaphysics and the legacy to philosophy of science at sec. XVII to science contemporary

Propriedades magnéticas de nanopartículas de ferro em substratos antiferromagnéticos

The effect of finite size on the magnetic properties of ferromagnetic particles systems is a recurrent subject. One of the aspects wide investigated is the superparamagnetic limit where the temperature destroys the magnetic order of ferromagnetic small particles. Above the block temperature the thermal value of the magnetic moment of the particle vanishes, due to thermal fluctuations. The value of the blocking temperature diminishes when the size of the particle is reduced, reflecting the reduction of the anisotropy energy barrier between the uniform states along the uniaxial axis. The increasing demand for high density magnetic media has recently attracted great research interest in periodic arrangements of nanometric ferromagnetics particles, approach in the superparamagnetic limit. An interesting conjecture is the possibility of stabilization of the magnetic order of small ferromagnetic particles (F) by interface coupling with antiferromagnetic (AF) substrate. These F/AF systems may also help to elucidate some details of the effect of exchange bias, because the effect of interface roughness and the paper of domain walls, either in the substrate or the particle, are significantly reduced. We investigate the magnetic phases of small ferromagnetic particles on a antiferromagnetic substrate. We use a self-consistent local field method, incorporating the interface field and the dipole interaction between the spins of the ferromagnetic particle. Our results indicate that increasing the area of the interface favors the formation of the uniform state. Howere above a critical height value appears a state non-uniform is formed where the spins of in the particle s free surface are rotated with respect to the interface spins direction. We discuss the impact of the competition between the dipolar and interface field on the magnetic charge, that controls the field of flux leakage of the particle, and on the format of the hysteresis curves. Our results indicate that the liquid magnetic charge is not a monotonically increasing function of the height of the particle. The exchange bias may display anomalous features, induced for the dipolar field of the spins near the F/AF interface