Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

Iodine-131-labeled MAb F(ab')2 fragments are more efficient and less toxic than intact anti-CEA antibodies in radioimmunotherapy of large human colon carcinoma grafted in nude mice.

During one week, beginning 18 days after transplantation, nude mice bearing human colon carcinoma ranging from 115 to 943 mm3 (mean 335 mm3) were treated by repeated intravenous injections of either iodine-131-(131I) labeled intact antibodies or 131I-labeled corresponding F(ab')2 fragments of a pool of four monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) directed against distinct epitopes of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Complete tumor remission was observed in 8 of 10 mice after therapy with F(ab')2 and 6 of the animals survived 10 mo in good health. In contrast, after treatment with intact MAbs, tumors relapsed in 7 of 8 mice after remission periods of 1 to 3.5 mo despite the fact that body weight loss and depression of peripheral white blood cells, symptoms of radiation toxicity, and the calculated radiation doses for liver, spleen, bone, and blood were increased or equal in these animals as compared to mice treated with F(ab')2.

On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

Validation of methane measurement using headspace-GC-MS and quantification by a stable isotope-labeled internal standard generated in situ.

A previous study has shown the possibility to identify methane (CH4 ) using headspace-GC-MS and quantify it with a stable isotope as internal standard. The main drawback of the GC-MS methods discussed in literature for CH4 measurement is the absence of a specific internal standard necessary to perform quantification. However, it becomes essential to develop a safer method to limit the manipulation of gaseous CH4 and to precisely control the injected amount of gas for spiking and calibration by comparison with external calibration. To avoid the manipulation of a stable isotope-labeled gas, we have chosen to generate a labeled gas as an internal standard in a vial on the basis of the formation of CH4 by the reaction of Grignard reagent methylmagnesium chloride with deuterated water. This method allows precise measurement of CH4 concentrations in gaseous sample as well as in a solid or a liquid sample after a thermodesorption step in a headspace vial. A full accuracy profile validation of this method is then presented.

Fixed and random effects in Classical and Bayesian regression

This paper proposes a common and tractable framework for analyzingdifferent definitions of fixed and random effects in a contant-slopevariable-intercept model. It is shown that, regardless of whethereffects (i) are treated as parameters or as an error term, (ii) areestimated in different stages of a hierarchical model, or whether (iii)correlation between effects and regressors is allowed, when the sameinformation on effects is introduced into all estimation methods, theresulting slope estimator is also the same across methods. If differentmethods produce different results, it is ultimately because differentinformation is being used for each methods.

Random measurement error and regression dilution bias.

Summary points: - The bias introduced by random measurement error will be different depending on whether the error is in an exposure variable (risk factor) or outcome variable (disease) - Random measurement error in an exposure variable will bias the estimates of regression slope coefficients towards the null - Random measurement error in an outcome variable will instead increase the standard error of the estimates and widen the corresponding confidence intervals, making results less likely to be statistically significant - Increasing sample size will help minimise the impact of measurement error in an outcome variable but will only make estimates more precisely wrong when the error is in an exposure variable

Senescent stem-galls in trees of Eremanthus erythropappus as a resource for arboreal ants

Senescent stem-galls in trees of Eremanthus erythropappus as a resource for arboreal ants. Members of the dipteran families Tephritidae and Cecidomyiidae are inducers of stem-galls in Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish (Asteraceae), a tree common in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. When senescent, these galls become available to other organisms, such as ants. The present study describes a community of ants having benefitted from this process of ecosystem-engineering. The colonies in question inhabit the senescent stem-galls of trees of E. erythropappus and were examined in view of answering the following questions: i) whether the presence of stem-galls had any bearing on the richness, composition, or size of the ant colonies therein; and ii) whether the ants displayed any preferences regarding the shape and/or size of the galls. The study was conducted in populations of E. erythropappus trees near the city of Ouro Preto, MG. A total of 227 galls were collected, 14% of which were occupied by ants, belonging to eight different species. Half of the species occupied galls of both morphotypes (fusiform and globular), although we observed a marked preference for larger, globular shapes. Overall, our results showed the galls to be an effective and abundant resource, helping to maintain the diversity of the ants in the canopy. We also observed the occurrence of outstations and polydomic nests, although an in-depth examination of the influence of galls on this type of structuring has not been investigated.

Comparing Random-based and k-Anonymity-Based Algorithms for Graph Anonymization

Recently, several anonymization algorithms have appeared for privacy preservation on graphs. Some of them are based on random-ization techniques and on k-anonymity concepts. We can use both of them to obtain an anonymized graph with a given k-anonymity value. In this paper we compare algorithms based on both techniques in orderto obtain an anonymized graph with a desired k-anonymity value. We want to analyze the complexity of these methods to generate anonymized graphs and the quality of the resulting graphs.

Within-plot subsampling of trees for assessment in progeny trials of Scots pine

Summary

Feasibility of in vivo 15N MRS detection of hyperpolarized 15N labeled choline in rats.

The increase of total choline in tumors has become an important biomarker in cancer diagnosis. Choline and choline metabolites can be measured in vivo and in vitro using multinuclear MRS. Recent in vivo(13)C MRS studies using labeled substrates enhanced via dynamic nuclear polarization demonstrated the tremendous potential of hyperpolarization for real-time metabolic studies. The present study demonstrates the feasibility of detecting hyperpolarized (15)N labeled choline in vivo in a rat head at 9.4 T. We furthermore report the in vitro (172 +/- 16 s) and in vivo (126 +/- 15 s) longitudinal relaxation times. We conclude that with appropriate infusion protocols it is feasible to detect hyperpolarized (15)N labeled choline in live animals.

Organic material decomposition and nutrient dynamics in a mulch system enriched with leguminous trees in the Amazon

The new techniques proposed for agriculture in the Amazon region include rotational fallow systems enriched with leguminous trees and the replacement of biomass burning by mulching. Decomposition and nutrient release from mulch were studied using fine-mesh litterbags with five different leguminous species and the natural fallow vegetation as control. Samples from each treatment were analyzed for total C, N, P, K, Ca, Mg, lignin, cellulose content and soluble polyphenol at different sampling times over the course of one year. The decomposition rate constant varied with species and time. Weight loss from the decomposed litter bag material after 96 days was 30.1 % for Acacia angustissima, 32.7 % for Sclerolobium paniculatum, 33.9 % for Iinga edulis and the Fallow vegetation, 45.2 % for Acacia mangium and 63.6 % for Clitoria racemosa. Immobilization of N and P was observed in all studied treatments. Nitrogen mineralization was negatively correlated with phenol, C-to-N ratio, lignin + phenol/N ratio, and phenol/phosphorus ratios and with N content in the litterbag material. After 362 days of field incubation, an average (of all treatments), 3.3 % K, 32.2 % Ca and 22.4 % Mg remained in the mulch. Results confirm that low quality and high amount of organic C as mulch application are limiting for the quantity of energy available for microorganisms and increase the nutrient immobilization for biomass decomposition, which results in competition for nutrients with the crop plants.

Dynamics of 14C-labeled glucose and ammonium in saline arable soils

Organic matter dynamics and nutrient availability in saline agricultural soils of the State of Guanajuato might provide information for remediation strategies. 14C labeled glucose with or without 200 mg kg-1 of NH4+-N soil was added to two clayey agricultural soils with different electrolytic conductivity (EC), i.e. 0.94 dS m-1 (low EC; LEC) and 6.72 dS m-1 (high EC; HEC), to investigate the effect of N availability and salt content on organic material decomposition. Inorganic N dynamics and production of CO2 and 14CO2 were monitored. Approximately 60 % of the glucose-14C added to LEC soil evolved as 14CO2, but only 20 % in HEC soil after the incubation period of 21 days. After one day, < 200 mg 14C was extractable from LEC soil, but > 500 mg 14C from HEC soil. No N mineralization occurred in the LEC and HEC soils and glucose addition reduced the concentrations of inorganic N in unamended soil and soil amended with NH4+-N. The NO2- and NO3- concentrations were on average higher in LEC than in HEC soil, with exception of NO2- in HEC amended with NH4+-N. It was concluded that increases in soil EC reduced mineralization of the easily decomposable C substrate and resulted in N-depleted soil.