An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements Sector in Barbados

This study assesses the potential economic impact of climate change on coastal human settlements in the Caribbean, with specific reference to Barbados, and evaluates the costs and benefits of undertaking various adaptation strategies. The aim is to assist Caribbean territories in developing the strategies and capacity needed to deal with the potential impact of severe weather events that are anticipated to occur with increased frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources.This research focuses on how human settlements distributed along the coast of Guyana, especially those in low elevation coastal zones (LECZ)are affected by these impacts. Focusing on three potential transmission sources - sea-level rise, stronger storm hazards and increased precipitation – the study considers the vulnerability of populations in the LECZ areas and estimates the overall threat posed by climate change to coastal populations and infrastructure. Vulnerability to climate change (measured as exposed assets) was estimated for four emission scenarios as outlined by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), namely the A1, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios for the period 2010 to 2100 and as detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using global circulation models (GCM) and storm surge hazard maps.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Bahamas

The Bahamas is at great risk and vulnerability given its geographical features as a low-lying, sea encircled country. If projected sea level rise is reached by 2050, between 10-12% of territory will be lost, especially in coastal zones where the main tourism assets are located. Vulnerability could also be manifested if flight carbon emission taxes are established in the main source markets, representing an economic threat to the tourism sector for the islands. The impact of climate change on main tourism demand variables will cause some losses to the country‟s income and government revenues. This would be acting conjointly with some local threats to tourism assets and trends in future global tourism demand. The second and no less important threat is tropical cyclones, which may be associated with raising sea level. Estimations posited the amount of losses in excess of 2400 million US$ for the four decades under examination. It is to be pointed out that there is still a lack of comparatively accurate data collection and analysis on this subject, a point deserving more attention in order to deepen the understanding of, and to extract better lessons from these extreme events. In the same period, total estimated impacts of progressive climate change are between 17 and 19 billions of B$ with estimated discount rates applied. The Bahamas is a Small Island Developing State with low growth on GHG emissions (second in Latin America), as well as a relative short capacity to lower emissions in the future. The country has a relative delay in the application of renewable energy systems, a solution that, provided documented studies on-site, might turn out to be fundamental in the country‟s efforts to establish mitigation related policies. The Bahamas currently has institutions and organizations that deal with climate change-related issues and an important number of measures and courses of action have been set up by the government. Nevertheless, more coordination among them is needed and should include international institutions. This coordination is essential even for the first steps, i.e. to conduct studies with a bottom-up approach in order to draw more accurate programs on adaptation and mitigation. It is fundamental for tourism to keep track of potential losses in tourist attractions (and to act accordingly), related to correspondent losses in biodiversity, water resources and coastal erosion. Also, actions to fight climate change impacts might improve the islands security standards, quality of living and protect cultural and heritage assets. These elements may definitely shape the future of the country‟s competitiveness as a tourism destination. It is possible and necessary to decide about the options with good cost-benefit ratio and reasonable payback periods, notwithstanding that cost-benefit analysis requires more refined and accurate data to provide precise and locally adapted options.

An Assessment Of The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On The Transportation Sector In Montserrat

.--I. Introduction.--II. Literature review regarding climate change impacts on international transportation.--III. Economy of the Caribbean subregion and Monserrat.--IV. The international transportaion system in the Caribbean and in Monserrat.--V. Vulnerabilities of international transport system in Monserrat to climate change.--VI. Modelling.-- VII. Economic impact analysis of climate chage on the international transport.-- VIII. Approaches to mitigation and adaptation in the air and sea transportation sectors.-- IX. Conclusions

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Aruba

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on Aruba. This study has three main objectives. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply of tourism in Aruba. The second is to forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2050 under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios with the Business as Usual (BAU) as a comparator climate scenario, and the third is to estimate the cost of adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by Aruba to address climate change in the tourism sector.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Curacao

In this study, an attempt is made to estimate the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the (former) Netherlands Antilles. There are three main objectives in this study. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply of tourism in Netherlands Antilles. The second is to forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2050 under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios with the (Business as Usual) as a comparator climate scenario, and the third is to estimate the cost of adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by the tourism sector in the Netherlands Antilles to address climate change.

Synergistic Anti-Inflammatory Activity of the Antimicrobial Peptides Human Beta-Defensin-3 (hBD-3) and Cathelicidin (LL-37) in a Three-Dimensional Co-Culture Model of Gingival Epithelial Cells and Fibroblasts

Given the spread of antibiotic resistance in bacterial pathogens, antimicrobial peptides that can also modulate the immune response may be a novel approach for effectively controlling periodontal infections. In the present study, we used a three-dimensional (3D) co-culture model of gingival epithelial cells and fibroblasts stimulated with Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans lipopolysaccharide (LPS) to investigate the anti-inflammatory properties of human beta-defensin-3 (hBD-3) and cathelicidin (LL-37) and to determine whether these antimicrobial peptides can act in synergy. The 3D co-culture model composed of gingival fibroblasts embedded in a collagen matrix overlaid with gingival epithelial cells had a synergistic effect with respect to the secretion of IL-6 and IL-8 in response to LPS stimulation compared to fibroblasts and epithelial cells alone. The 3D co-culture model was stimulated with non-cytotoxic concentrations of hBD-3 (10 and 20 mu M) and LL-37 (0.1 and 0.2 mu M) individually and in combination in the presence of A. actinomycetemcomitans LPS. A multiplex ELISA assay was used to quantify the secretion of 41 different cytokines. hBD-3 and LL-37 acted in synergy to reduce the secretion of GRO-alpha, G-CSF, IP-10, IL-6, and MCP-1, but only had an additive effect on reducing the secretion of IL-8 in response to A. actinomycetemcomitans LPS stimulation. The present study showed that hBD-3 acted in synergy with LL-37 to reduce the secretion of cytokines by an LPS-stimulated 3D model of gingival mucosa. This combination of antimicrobial peptides thus shows promising potential as an adjunctive therapy for treating inflammatory periodontitis.

Key participants of the tumor microenvironment of the prostate: An approach of the structural dynamic of cellular elements and extracellular matrix components during epithelial-stromal transition

Cancer is a multistep process that begins with the transformation of normal epithelial cells and continues with tumor growth, stromal invasion and metastasis. The remodeling of the peritumoral environment is decisive for the onset of tumor invasiveness. This event is dependent on epithelial–stromal interactions, degradation of extracellular matrix components and reorganization of fibrillar components. Our research group has studied in a new proposed rodent model the participation of cellular and molecular components in the prostate microenvironment that contributes to cancer progression. Our group adopted the gerbil Meriones unguiculatus as an alternative experimental model for prostate cancer study. This model has presented significant responses to hormonal treatments and to development of spontaneous and induced neoplasias. The data obtained indicate reorganization of type I collagen fibers and reticular fibers, synthesis of new components such as tenascin and proteoglycans, degradation of basement membrane components and elastic fibers and increased expression of metalloproteinases. Fibroblasts that border the region, apparently participate in the stromal reaction. The roles of each of these events, as well as some signaling molecules, participants of neoplastic progression and factors that promote genetic reprogramming during epithelial–stromal transition are also discussed.

The role of the state in health public policies: an overview of the debate on the concept of State and the Brazilian case

This article is the result of a narrative literature review. The objective is to show the development of an overview on the ideological debate on the design of state health policies. We argue that the role of the state in the development of health policy, even under the pressure of the global market, may create alternatives to promote and drive economic and social development, meaning they are not subject to economic constraints imposed by the liberal ideal of market. Here is a part of a theoretical discussion about the construction and presence of the State in Latin America, particularly in Brazil. We take the approaches of the Marxist tradition and liberal to the issue as reference. This discussion allows us to understand the historical role of the state in the maintenance of social policies, specifically health, is an alternative to public control eases the intense capital mobility promoted by economic globalization. In this sense, the theme makes the Brazilian health an important issue of social sciences, why is the historicity of the construction of the Brazilian health system, as a public policy that can mirror the actual reconstruction of the institutional framework of the Brazilian state with the establishment instances of negotiation between the various spheres of power that strengthen the state in this process of democratization of Brazilian society.

An extension of the half-normal distribution

In this paper we introduce a new distribution, namely, the slashed half-normal distribution and it can be seen as an extension of the half-normal distribution. It is shown that the resulting distribution has more kurtosis than the ordinary half-normal distribution. Moments and some properties are derived for the new distribution. Moment estimators and maximum likelihood estimators can computed using numerical procedures. Results of two real data application are reported where model fitting is implemented by using maximum likelihood estimation. The applications illustrate the better performance of the new distribution.

Cross-cultural adaptation of the Work Disability Diagnosis Interview (WoDDI) for the Brazilian context

The Work Disability Diagnosis Interview (WoDDI) is a structured interview guide developed by the University of Sherbrooke, Canada to help clinicians detect the most important work-related disability predictors and to identify one or more causes of prolonged absenteeism. This methodological study aims for the cross-cultural adaptation of the WoDDI for the Brazilian context. The method followed international guidelines for studies of this kind, including the following steps: initial translation, synthesis of translations, back translation, evaluation by an expert committee and testing of the penultimate version. These steps allowed obtaining conceptual, semantic, idiomatic, experiential and operational equivalences, in addition to content validity. The results showed that the translated WoDDI is adapted to the Brazilian context and can be used after training.

TRANSLATION AND CULTURAL ADAPTATION OF THE GLOBAL APPRAISAL OF INDIVIDUAL NEEDS - INITIAL

The objective of this study was to perform the translation on and cultural adaptation of the Global Appraisal of Individual Needs - Initial instrument, and calculate its content validity index. This is a methodological study designed for the cultural adaptation of the instrument. The instrument was translated into Portuguese in two versions that originated the synthesis of the translations, which were then submitted to the evaluation of four judges, experts in the field of alcohol and other drugs. After the suggested changes were made, the instrument was back-translated and resubmitted to the judges and authors of the original instrument, resulting in the final version of the instrument, Avaliacao Global das Necessidades Individuais - Inicial. The content validity index of the instrument was 0.91, considered valid according to the literature. The instrument Avaliacao Global das Necessidades Individuais - Inicial was culturally adapted to the Portuguese language spoken in Brazil; however, it was not submitted to tests with the target population, which suggests further studies should be performed to test its reliability and validity.

Translation and Cross-cultural Adaptation of the Lower Extremity Functional Scale Into a Brazilian Portuguese Version and Validation on Patients With Knee Injuries

STUDY DESIGN: Clinical measurement. OBJECTIVE: To translate and culturally adapt the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) into a Brazilian Portuguese version, and to test the construct and content validity and reliability of this version in patients with knee injuries. BACKGROUND: There is no Brazilian Portuguese version of an instrument to assess the function of the lower extremity after orthopaedic injury. METHODS: The translation of the original English version of the LEFS into a Brazilian Portuguese version was accomplished using standard guidelines and tested in 31 patients with knee injuries. Subsequently, 87 patients with a variety of knee disorders completed the Brazilian Portuguese LEES, the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index, and the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Evaluation Form and a visual analog scale for pain. All patients were retested within 2 days to determine reliability of these measures. Validation was assessed by determining the level of association between the Brazilian Portuguese LEFS and the other outcome measures. Reliability was documented by calculating internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and standard error of measurement. RESULTS: The Brazilian Portuguese LEES had a high level of association with the physical component of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (r = 0.82), the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (r = 0.87), the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Evaluation Form (r = 0.82), and the pain visual analog scale (r = -0.60) (all, P<.05). The Brazilian Portuguese LEES had a low level of association with the mental component of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (r = 0.38, P<.05). The internal consistency (Cronbach alpha = .952) and test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.957) of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the LEES were high. The standard error of measurement was low (3.6) and the agreement was considered high, demonstrated by the small differences between test and retest and the narrow limit of agreement, as observed in Bland-Altman and survival-agreement plots. CONCLUSION: The translation of the LEFS into a Brazilian Portuguese version was successful in preserving the semantic and measurement properties of the original version and was shown to be valid and reliable in a Brazilian population with knee injuries. J Ort hop Sports Phys Ther 2012;42(11):932-939, Epub 9 October 2012. doi:10.2519/jospt.2012.4101

LAGOA SANTA REVISITED: AN OVERVIEW OF THE CHRONOLOGY, SUBSISTENCE, AND MATERIAL CULTURE OF PALEOINDIAN SITES IN EASTERN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Lagoa Santa, a karstic area in eastern Central Brazil, has been subject to research on human paleontology and archaeology for 175 years. Almost 300 Paleoindian human skeletons have been found since Danish naturalist Peter Lund's pioneering work. Even so, some critical issues such as the role of rockshelters in settlement systems, and the possible paleoclimatic implications of the peopling of the region have yet to be addressed. We present some results obtained from recent excavations at four rockshelters and two open-air sites, new dates for human Paleoindian skeletons, and a model to explain the cultural patterns observed so far. It is also argued that the Paleoindian subsistence system at Lagoa Santa was similar to other locations in South America: generalized small-game hunting complemented by fruits, seed, and root gathering.