De-risking development of medium density housing to improve housing affordability and boost supply

Housing price inflation is a national concern given the serious decline in the number of low and middle income households able to purchase housing. In addition housing supply lags well behind demand. In Melbourne, urban consolidation policies explicitly seek intensification to promote housing supply but planning regulation is often criticised for being a significant cost driver for medium density housing. It is assumed that easing supply constraints will improve affordability. We suggest that laissez-faire planning exacerbates affordability issues because this approach fails to address the basic economic problem: the current inability of the market to efficiently match supply and demand in order to progress an orderly and de-risked development process. The role of “exchange” one of the four housing market sub-systems identified by Burke (2012) has until recently generally been ignored but our examination reveals significant economic transaction costs that manifest as development risks that impact on affordability. Fortunately these can be mitigated, but only if there is a more consumer driven supply response.

A quantitative metric to identify critical elements within seafood supply networks

A theoretical basis is required for comparing key features and critical elements in wild fisheries and aquaculture supply chains under a changing climate. Here we develop a new quantitative metric that is analogous to indices used to analyse food-webs and identify key species. The Supply Chain Index (SCI) identifies critical elements as those elements with large throughput rates, as well as greater connectivity. The sum of the scores for a supply chain provides a single metric that roughly captures both the resilience and connectedness of a supply chain. Standardised scores can facilitate cross-comparisons both under current conditions as well as under a changing climate. Identification of key elements along the supply chain may assist in informing adaptation strategies to reduce anticipated future risks posed by climate change. The SCI also provides information on the relative stability of different supply chains based on whether there is a fairly even spread in the individual scores of the top few key elements, compared with a more critical dependence on a few key individual supply chain elements. We use as a case study the Australian southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii fishery, which is challenged by a number of climate change drivers such as impacts on recruitment and growth due to changes in large-scale and local oceanographic features. The SCI identifies airports, processors and Chinese consumers as the key elements in the lobster supply chain that merit attention to enhance stability and potentially enable growth. We also apply the index to an additional four real-world Australian commercial fishery and two aquaculture industry supply chains to highlight the utility of a systematic method for describing supply chains. Overall, our simple methodological approach to empirically-based supply chain research provides an objective method for comparing the resilience of supply chains and highlighting components that may be critical.

Supplier selection based on supply chain ecosystem, performance and risk criteria

A supply chain ecosystem consists of the elements of the supply chain and the entities that influence the goods, information and financial flows through the supply chain. These influences come through government regulations, human, financial and natural resources, logistics infrastructure and management, etc., and thus affect the supply chain performance. Similarly, all the ecosystem elements also contribute to the risk. The aim of this paper is to identify both performances-based and risk-based decision criteria, which are important and critical to the supply chain. A two step approach using fuzzy AHP and fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution has been proposed for multi-criteria decision-making and illustrated using a numerical example. The first step does the selection without considering risks and then in the next step suppliers are ranked according to their risk profiles. Later, the two ranks are consolidated into one. In subsequent section, the method is also extended for multi-tier supplier selection. In short, we are presenting a method for the design of a resilient supply chain, in this paper.

The Effect of Risk Sensitivity on Collaborative New Product Development in a Supply Chain

The increasing risks and costs of new product development require firms to collaborate with their supply chain partners in product management. In this paper, a supply chain model is proposed with one risk-neutral supplier and one risk-averse manufacturer. The manufacturer has an opportunity to enhance demand by developing a new product, but both the actual demand for new product and the supplier’s wholesale price are uncertain. The supplier has an incentive to share risks of new product development via an advance commitment to wholesale price for its own profit maximization. The effects of the manufacturer’s risk sensitivity on the players’ optimal strategies are analyzed and the trade-off between innovation incentives and pricing flexibility is investigated from the perspective of the supplier. The results highlight the significant role of risk sensitivity in collaborative new product development, and it is found that the manufacturer’s innovation level and retail price are always decreasing in the risk sensitivity, and the supplier prefers commitment to wholesale price only when the risk sensitivity is below a certain threshold.

Farm animal welfare:Assessing risks attributable to the prenatal environment

An ever-expanding scientific literature highlights the impact of the prenatal environment on many areas of biology. Across all major farmed species, experimental studies have clearly shown that prenatal experiences can have a substantial impact on outcomes relevant to later health, welfare and productivity. In particular, stress or sub-optimal nutrition experienced by the mother during pregnancy has been shown to have wide-ranging and important effects on how her offspring cope with their social, physical and infectious environment. Variation in the conditions for development provided by the reproductive tract or egg, for instance by altered nutritional supply or hormonal exposure, may therefore explain a large degree of variation in many welfare- and productivity-relevant traits. The scientific literature suggests a number of management practices for pre-birth/hatch individuals that could compromise their later welfare. Such studies may have relevance for the welfare of animals under human care, depending on the extent to which real life conditions involve exposure to these practices. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of extending the focus on animal welfare to include the prenatal period, an aspect which until recently has been largely neglected. © 2012 Universities Federation for Animal Welfare The Old School.

Financial protection in the UK building industry: a guide for clients and the construction supply chain.

There is a clear need for financial protection in the construction industry, both to guarantee satisfactory completion of construction projects and to guard against non-payment. However, the cost of financial protection is often felt to be disproportionately high, with unnecessary overlap between different measures. The Reading Construction Forum has commissioned and steered research which is published in this report in an effort to bring the problem out into the open and to clarify the various options open to the various parties and stakeholders in the construction process. "Financial Protection in the UK Building Industry" is the first definitive report on the subject, offering an accurate and simple guide that all levels within the construction industry can understand. This accessible new guide considers the problem of financial protection and clearly lays out the alternative solutions.It looks by turn at the client, the main contractor, and the sub-contractor, discussing which financial protection options are available to each of them, and considers the pros and cons of each option. The cost of each type of financial protection is weighed against the amount of protection provided and the risks involved. The book concludes with guidance for consultants, emphasising relevant points to consider when advising clients and contractors about which type of financial protection to choose. "Financial Protection in the UK Building Industry" was researched by a literature search, collection of statistical data, and financial data, as well as discussions with clients, contractors, sub-contractors and consultants. This investigation has shown that the direct costs of implementing financial protection measures are marginal, and that wider adoption of payment protection would create a more equitable situation between contracting parties.This guide will enable anyone in the construction industry to consider all the options, and determine what is the best solution for them. "Reading Construction Forum Financial Protection for the UK Building Industry" was complied by the University of Reading, funded by the Reading Construction Forum. The Forum has recently commissioned and steered a number of high-profile reports covering important aspects of the construction industry. Members of the Forum include major companies which are concerned with achieving high quality in the design, construction and use of commercial, retail and industrial buildings. All are committed to change and innovation in the British and European construction industries.

Predicting the risks from climate change to forage and crop production for animal feed

Climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather. Projections of climate impacts on feed crops show that there will likely be opportunities for increased productivity as well as considerable threats to crop productivity in different parts of the world over the next 20 to 50 years. On balance, we anticipate substantial risks to the volume, volatility, and quality of animal feed supply chains from climate change. Adaptation strategies and investment informed by high quality research at the interface of crop and animal science will be needed, both to respond to climate change and to meet the increasing demand for animal products expected over the coming decades.

A retail supply chain risk assessment conceptual model

Supply chains are increasingly relying on information and communications technologies and in particular electronic commerce to facilitate transactions between supply chain partners. The adoption of these enabling technologies brings several enhancements to the conduct of business including gains in efficiency. However there are also drawbacks inherent in these technologies that include threats that are imposed on businesses that use them. This paper presents a study on retail supply chains and the risks and vulnerabilities that cooperating supply chain partners are exposed to when adopting these technologies. In particular, the paper discusses the various threats and vulnerabilities of retail supply and presents a conceptual model of such risks.

Human Health Impacts of Contaminants Found in Local Drinking Water Supply

Many contaminants are currently unregulated by the government and do not have a set limit, known as the Maximum Contaminant Level, which is dictated by cost and the best available treatment technology. The Maximum Contaminant Level Goal, on the other hand, is based solely upon health considerations and is non-enforceable. In addition to being naturally occurring, contaminants may enter drinking water supplies through industrial sources, agricultural practices, urban pollution, sprawl, and water treatment byproducts. Exposure to these contaminants is not limited to ingestion and can also occur through dermal absorption and inhalation in the shower. Health risks for the general public include skin damage, increased risk of cancer, circulatory problems, and multiple toxicities. At low levels, these contaminants generally are not harmful in our drinking water. However, children, pregnant women, and people with compromised immune systems are more vulnerable to the health risks associated with these contaminants. Vulnerable peoples should take additional precautions with drinking water. This research project was conducted in order to learn more about our local drinking water and to characterize our exposure to contaminants. We hope to increase public awareness of water quality issues by educating the local residents about their drinking water in order to promote public health and minimize exposure to some of the contaminants contained within public water supplies.

Decision making to support an integrated infrastructure supply chain industrial ecological approach within public private partnerships

Supply chains are complex adaptive systems for which final performance depends upon numerous interdependent decisions made by numerous firms which synthesise inputs from various resources systems.  The dynamic interdependent behaviour of social, economic, material and informational resource systems within eco-industrial settings that support the built environment life cycle supply chains can be studied at the supply chain level.  The impact of megaprojects is significant and holds promise to explore the impact of decisions on various systems as it combines project and system boundaries.  Megaoprojects considered as major events within systems can produce critical revolutionary impacts on the systems within which they are embedded.  The decisions that are made on megaprojects are central to risk management.  typically major infrastructure projects are procured through a form of public private partnership (PPP).  The core principle of PPP is value for money which refers to the best available outcome attempting to take account of all benefits, costs and risks over the whole life of the procurement.  In this paper the focus is on Australia where there has been considerable acitivity in the use of PPPs.  With recent national infrastucture packages proposed to stimulate the economy due to the global financial crisis, decision modelling on risks is a revelant and critical matter not only in practice but also in the research community.  PPPs encourage the whole-of-lifecycle approach in the procurement and management of public sector assets by transparently recognising the costs and risks associated with the whole life of the required service or facility, thus integrated whole of life supply chains can be considered.  By creating a single point of responsibility for an entire project from inception through operation, a strong incentive is created for thinking about the effects that a design or construction decision will have on the effectiveness and efficiency of managing and maintaining a facility during its operational life.  The decision to procure holistic supply chains becomes a much more viable commercial reality in the PPP environment than previously considered in the usual commercial construction spot transactional approach.  These types of decisions tend to be imprecise, approximate and complex requireing justification and reasoning logic rather than the classical 'truth' logic.  The purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical decision framework which combines interdependency and multi-values logic for supply chain procurement modelling.

Development of a supply chain management security risk management method : a conceptual model

This paper continues the prior research undertaken by Warren and Leitch (2009), in which a series of initial research findings were presented. These findings identified that in Australia, Supply Chain Management (SCM) systems were the weak link of Australian critical infrastructure. This paper focuses upon the security and risk issues associated with SCM systems and puts forward a new SCM Security Risk Management method, continuing the research presented at the European Conference of Information Warfare in 2009.This paper proposes a new Security Risk Analysis model that deals with the complexity of protecting SCM critical infrastructure systems and also introduces a new approach that organisations can apply to protect their SCM systems. The paper describes the importance of SCM systems from a critical infrastructure protection perspective. The paper then discusses the importance of SCM systems in relation to supporting centres of populations and gives examples of the impact of failure. The paper proposes a new SCM security risk analysis method that deals with the security issues related to SCM security and the security issues associated with Information Security. The paper will also discuss a risk framework that can be used to protect against high and low level associated security risks using a new SCM security risk analysis method.

Gradients in N-cycling attributes along forestry and agricultural land-use systems are indicative of soil capacity for N supply

Indicators of soil quality associated with N-cycling were assessed under different land-use systems (native forest NAT, reforestation with Araucaria angustifolia or Pinus taeda and agricultural use AGR) to appraise the effects on the soil potential for N supply. The soil total N ranged from 2 to 4 g/kg (AGR and NAT, respectively), and the microbial biomass N ranged from 80 to 250 mg/kg, being higher in NAT and A. angustifolia, and lower in P. taeda and AGR sites. Activities of asparaginase (ca. 50200 mg NH4+-N/kg per h), glutaminase (ca. 200800 mg NH4+-N/kg per h) and urease (ca. 80200 mg NH4+-N/kg/h) were also more intense in the NAT and A. angustifolia-reforested soils, indicating greater capacity for N mineralization. The NAT and AGR soils showed the highest and the lowest ammonification rate, respectively (ca. 1 and 0.4 mg NH4+-N/kg per day), but the inverse for nitrification rate (ca. 12 and 26%), indicating a low capacity for N supply, in addition to higher risks of N losses in the AGR soil. A multivariate analysis indicated more similarity between NAT and A. angustifolia-reforested sites, whilst the AGR soil was different and associated with a higher nitrification rate. In general, reforestation with the native species A. angustifolia had less impact than reforestation with the exogenous species P. taeda, considering the soil capacity for N supply. However, AGR use caused more changes, generally decrease in indicators of N-cycling, showing a negative soil management effect on the sustainability of this agroecosystem.

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.