Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company.

Determining process model precision and generalization with weighted artificial negative events

Process mining encompasses the research area which is concerned with knowledge discovery from event logs. One common process mining task focuses on conformance checking, comparing discovered or designed process models with actual real-life behavior as captured in event logs in order to assess the “goodness” of the process model. This paper introduces a novel conformance checking method to measure how well a process model performs in terms of precision and generalization with respect to the actual executions of a process as recorded in an event log. Our approach differs from related work in the sense that we apply the concept of so-called weighted artificial negative events towards conformance checking, leading to more robust results, especially when dealing with less complete event logs that only contain a subset of all possible process execution behavior. In addition, our technique offers a novel way to estimate a process model’s ability to generalize. Existing literature has focused mainly on the fitness (recall) and precision (appropriateness) of process models, whereas generalization has been much more difficult to estimate. The described algorithms are implemented in a number of ProM plugins, and a Petri net conformance checking tool was developed to inspect process model conformance in a visual manner.

A framework for cost-aware process management : cost reporting and cost prediction

Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency gains for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables detailed cost reporting of business operations for decision making purposes, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Process mining, on the other hand, may provide valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded in logs by IT systems, but its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, a framework is proposed which aims to exploit the strengths of both fields in order to better support management decisions on cost control. This is achieved by automatically merging cost data with historical data from event logs for the purposes of monitoring, predicting, and reporting process-related costs. The on-demand generation of accurate, relevant and timely cost reports, in a style akin to reports in the area of management accounting, will also be illustrated. This is achieved through extending the open-source process mining framework ProM.

Deriving a preference-based utility measure for cancer patients from the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer's Quality of Life Questionnaire C30 : a confirmatory versus exploratory approach

Background Multi attribute utility instruments (MAUIs) are preference-based measures that comprise a health state classification system (HSCS) and a scoring algorithm that assigns a utility value to each health state in the HSCS. When developing a MAUI from a health-related quality of life (HRQOL) questionnaire, first a HSCS must be derived. This typically involves selecting a subset of domains and items because HRQOL questionnaires typically have too many items to be amendable to the valuation task required to develop the scoring algorithm for a MAUI. Currently, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) followed by Rasch analysis is recommended for deriving a MAUI from a HRQOL measure. Aim To determine whether confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is more appropriate and efficient than EFA to derive a HSCS from the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer’s core HRQOL questionnaire, Quality of Life Questionnaire (QLQ-C30), given its well-established domain structure. Methods QLQ-C30 (Version 3) data were collected from 356 patients receiving palliative radiotherapy for recurrent/metastatic cancer (various primary sites). The dimensional structure of the QLQ-C30 was tested with EFA and CFA, the latter informed by the established QLQ-C30 structure and views of both patients and clinicians on which are the most relevant items. Dimensions determined by EFA or CFA were then subjected to Rasch analysis. Results CFA results generally supported the proposed QLQ-C30 structure (comparative fit index =0.99, Tucker–Lewis index =0.99, root mean square error of approximation =0.04). EFA revealed fewer factors and some items cross-loaded on multiple factors. Further assessment of dimensionality with Rasch analysis allowed better alignment of the EFA dimensions with those detected by CFA. Conclusion CFA was more appropriate and efficient than EFA in producing clinically interpretable results for the HSCS for a proposed new cancer-specific MAUI. Our findings suggest that CFA should be recommended generally when deriving a preference-based measure from a HRQOL measure that has an established domain structure.

Turning event logs into process movies: animating what has really happened

Today’s information systems log vast amounts of data. These collections of data (implicitly) describe events (e.g. placing an order or taking a blood test) and, hence, provide information on the actual execution of business processes. The analysis of such data provides an excellent starting point for business process improvement. This is the realm of process mining, an area which has provided a repertoire of many analysis techniques. Despite the impressive capabilities of existing process mining algorithms, dealing with the abundance of data recorded by contemporary systems and devices remains a challenge. Of particular importance is the capability to guide the meaningful interpretation of “oceans of data” by process analysts. To this end, insights from the field of visual analytics can be leveraged. This article proposes an approach where process states are reconstructed from event logs and visualised in succession, leading to an animated history of a process. This approach is customisable in how a process state, partially defined through a collection of activity instances, is visualised: one can select a map and specify a projection of events on this map based on the properties of the events. This paper describes a comprehensive implementation of the proposal. It was realised using the open-source process mining framework ProM. Moreover, this paper also reports on an evaluation of the approach conducted with Suncorp, one of Australia’s largest insurance companies.

Business process performance mining with staged process flows

Existing process mining techniques provide summary views of the overall process performance over a period of time, allowing analysts to identify bottlenecks and associated performance issues. However, these tools are not de- signed to help analysts understand how bottlenecks form and dissolve over time nor how the formation and dissolution of bottlenecks – and associated fluctua- tions in demand and capacity – affect the overall process performance. This paper presents an approach to analyze the evolution of process performance via a notion of Staged Process Flow (SPF). An SPF abstracts a business process as a series of queues corresponding to stages. The paper defines a number of stage character- istics and visualizations that collectively allow process performance evolution to be analyzed from multiple perspectives. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining framework. The paper demonstrates the advantages of the SPF approach over state-of-the-art process performance mining tools using two real-life event logs publicly available.

An approximate mathematical procedure for the determination of characteristic parameters for a general case in three dimensional photoelasticity

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Crecimiento y dispersión de estructuras vegetativas de Gramón (Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.)

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Patient-reported outcomes in randomised controlled trials on age-related macular degeneration

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The purpose of this systematic review was to identify the frequency and type of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) used in recent randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

METHODS: The authors conducted a systematic search between January 2010 and November 2013 in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Cochrane Library (Central) and the clinical trials registries (http://www.controlled-trials.com and http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov) according to defined inclusion criteria (RCTs on AMD in English). Two independent reviewers evaluated studies for inclusion. One reviewer extracted data of included studies, and a second masked reviewer assessed 10% to confirm accuracy in data collection. Reference lists of included papers and appendices of relevant Cochrane systematic reviews were scanned to identify other relevant RCTs. Information collected on extracted outcomes was analysed using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS: Literature and registry search yielded 3816 abstracts of journal articles and 493 records from trial registries. A total of 177 RCTs were deemed to have met inclusion criteria. Of the 858 outcomes reported, 38 outcomes were identified as PROMs (4.4%). Of the 177 RCTs examined, PROMs were used in 25 trials (14.1%). The National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire-25 was the most frequently used PROM instrument (64% of RCTs with PROMs included).

CONCLUSIONS: This review highlights that a small proportion of AMD RCTs included PROMs as outcome measures and that there was a variety in the instruments used.

Metabonomics of human amniotic fluid for prenatal diagnostics

O trabalho apresentado nesta tese teve como principais objectivos contribuir para o conhecimento da composição do líquido amniótico humano (LA), colhido no 2º trimestre de gravidez, assim como investigar possíveis alterações na sua composição devido à ocorrência de patologias pré-natais, recorrendo à metabonómica e procurando, assim, definir novos biomarcadores de doenças da grávida e do feto. Após uma introdução descrevendo o estado da arte relacionado com este trabalho (Capítulo 1) e os princípios das metodologias analíticas usadas (Capítulo 2), seguida de uma descrição dos aspectos experimentais associados a esta tese (Capítulo 3), apresentam-se os resultados da caracterização da composição química do LA (gravidez saudável) por espectroscopia de ressonância magnética nuclear (RMN), assim como da monitorização da sua estabilidade durante o armazenamento e após ciclos de congelamento-descongelamento (Capítulo 4). Amostras de LA armazenadas a -20°C registaram alterações significativas, tornando-se estas menos pronunciadas (mas ainda mensuráveis) a -70°C, temperatura recomendada para o armazenamento de LA. Foram também observadas alterações de composição após 1-2 ciclos de congelamento-descongelamento (a ter em conta aquando da reutilização de amostras), assim como à temperatura ambiente (indicando um período máximo de 4h para a manipulação e análise de LA). A aquisição de espectros de RMN de 1H de alta resolução e RMN acoplado (LC-NMR/MS) permitiu a detecção de 75 compostos no LA do 2º trimestre, 6 dos quais detectados pela primeira vez no LA. Experiências de difusão (DOSY) permitiram ainda a caracterização das velocidades de difusão e massas moleculares médias das proteínas mais abundantes. O Capítulo 5 descreve o estudo dos efeitos de malformações fetais (FM) e de cromossomopatias (CD) na composição do LA do 2º trimestre de gravidez. A extensão deste trabalho ao estudo dos efeitos de patologias no LA que ocorrem no 3º trimestre de gravidez é descrita no Capítulo 6, nomeadamente no que se refere ao parto pré-termo (PTD), pré-eclampsia (PE), restrição do crescimento intra-uterino (IUGR), ruptura prematura de membranas (PROM) e diabetes mellitus gestacional (GDM). Como complemento a estes estudos, realizou-se uma análise preliminar da urina materna do 2º trimestre para o estudo de FM e GDM, descrita no Capítulo 7. Para interpretação dos dados analíticos, obtidos por espectroscopia RMN de 1H, cromatografia líquida de ultra eficiência acoplada a espectrometria de massa (UPLC-MS) e espectroscopia do infravermelho médio (MIR), recorreu-se à análise discriminante pelos métodos dos mínimos quadrados parciais e o método dos mínimos quadrados parciais ortogonal (PLS-DA e OPLS-DA) e à correlação espectral. Após análise por validação cruzada de Monte-Carlo (MCCV), os modelos PLS-DA de LA permitiram distinguir as FM dos controlos (sensibilidades 69-85%, especificidades 80-95%, taxas de classificação 80-90%), revelando variações metabólicas ao nível do metabolismo energético, dos metabolismos dos aminoácidos e glícidos assim como possíveis alterações ao nível do funcionamento renal. Observou-se também um grande impacto das FM no perfil metabólico da urina materna (medido por UPLC-MS), tendo no entanto sido registados modelos PLS-DA com menor sensibilidade (40-60%), provavelmente devido ao baixo número de amostras e maior variabilidade da composição da urina (relativamente ao LA). Foram sugeridos possíveis marcadores relacionados com a ocorrência de FM, incluindo lactato, glucose, leucina, valina, glutamina, glutamato, glicoproteínas e conjugados de ácido glucurónico e/ou sulfato e compostos endógenos e/ou exógenos (<1 M) (os últimos visíveis apenas na urina). No LA foram também observadas variações metabólicas devido à ocorrência de vários tipos de cromossomopatias (CD), mas de menor magnitude. Os perfis metabólicos de LA associado a pré- PTD produziram modelos que, apesar do baixo poder de previsão, sugeriram alterações precoces no funcionamento da unidade fetoplacentária, hiperglicémia e stress oxidativo. Os modelos obtidos para os grupos pré- IUGR pré- PE, pré- PROM e pré-diagnóstico GDM (LA e urina materna) registaram baixo poder de previsão, indicando o pouco impacto destas condições na composição do LA e/ou urina do 2º trimestre. Os resultados obtidos demonstram as potencialidades da análise dos perfis metabólicos do LA (e, embora com base em menos estudos, da urina materna) do 2º trimestre para o desenvolvimento de novos e complementares métodos de diagnóstico, nomeadamente para FM e PTD.

Investigation of Changes in Prescribed and Voluntary Job Roles in Community Service Delivery for People who have Intellectual Disabilities after the Implementation of the 3 Rs; Rights, Respect and Responsibility Project

The purpose of this thesis was to explore whether there is change in organizational citizenship behaviours in community agency staff following agency adoption of a rights - based service philosophy. Four community agency support staff were interviewed to investigate how residential care providers in services for persons who have intellectual disabilities describe their voluntary job related behaviours following training about human rights. The major finding was that the participants were actively engaged in displaying civic virtue, courtesy, and altruism discretionary behaviours. There was evidence of a post rights training shift in communication patterns with support staff reporting that they used language that prom,oted and advocated for human rights, and reported increased communication exchanges among persons supported by the agency, support staff and managers. Participants also suggested that the individuals they support asserted their rights more frequently and they were more active in their own life choices following rights training.

Autonomy Promotion In A Multiethnic Context : Reflections On Some Normative Issues

La conception de la promotion de la santé consacrée dans la Charte d'Ottawa accorde à l'autonomie une place centrale. Or, il n'est pas clair que la santé définie au sens large et l'autonomie soient liées au sens où semblent l'entendre les auteurs de la Charte. De plus, la promotion de l'autonomie auprès de groupes qui ne la considèrent pas comme une valeur centrale reste à justifier. Le présent texte présente une conception de l'autonomie et de sa promotion qui permet de répondre à ce dernier problème. Des exemples de politiques publiques en contexte pluriethnique sont donnés afin d'illustrer comment la conception de la promotion de l'autonomie proposée se démarque de politiques plus coercitives.

La variante c.-9C>G del promotor de BMP15 está asociadad a la etiología de la falla ovárica prematura no-sindrómica

La falla ovárica prematura es una enfermedad común que conduce a la infertilidad femenina y cuya etiología no es identificable en más del 50% de los casos, lo cual sugiere un origen genético en la patogénesis de esta enfermedad. La función crucial del gen BMP15 en la biología de la reproducción fue propuesta cuando modelos KO de ratón y mutaciones naturales en ovejas revelaron fenotipos ováricos específicos. Aunque la secuenciación de la región codificante de BMP15 en grandes paneles de pacientes afectadas con Falla Ovárica Prematura (FOP) ha identificado algunas mutaciones, estas variaciones explican una baja proporción de casos. Nosotros hipotetizamos que una variante en la secuencia reguladora (promotor BMP15) podrían estar asociada a la etiología de la FOP no-sindrómica. Con la evidencia de los estudios previos que sugirieron la potencial implicación de la variante de secuencia c.-9C>G del promotor de BMP15 en los fenotipos reproductivos incluyendo FOP, evaluamos si este polimorfismo podría modificar las propiedades de transactivación de un factor de transcripción específico. Empleamos aproximaciones in-silico para predecir potenciales sitios de unión a factores de transcripción (TFBS: Transcription Factor Binding Sites) en la región 5´ de BMP15. El ensayo reportero de luciferasa se usó para determinar la modificación de la transacativación del promotor de BMP15 causada por la variante de c-9C>G. Se demostró que aunque los dos constructos del promotor de BMP15 (BMP15- prom-G and BMP15-prom-C) fueron transactivados por el factor de transcripción PITX1, el constructo BMP15- prom-G aumentó 1.6 veces la actividad transcripcional del factor de transcripción de una manera estadísticamente significativa. Por otro lado, se demostró por primera vez que BMP15 y PITX1 son co-expresados en tejido ovárico de humano y de ratón.

Influencia de las variables sexo, edad y educación formal en el razonamiento prosocial de adolescentes y jóvenes.

Resumen tomado del autor