Welche Typen von Autokratien sind leistungsfähiger und warum? : eine empirische Analyse auf Grundlage der Selektoratstheorie = Which type of autocracy performs better, and why?

Performanzunterschiede zwischen verschiedenen Autokratietypen wie Monarchien, Militär-, Ein-Parteien- und begrenzten Mehr-Parteien-Regimen sind bis auf wenige Ausnahmen bisher relativ unerforscht. Deshalb widmet sich diese Arbeit folgenden Forschungsfragen: Gibt es Performanzunterschiede zwischen verschiedenen Autokratietypen? Wenn ja, wie gestalten sich diese und wie lassen sie sich erklären? Auf Grundlage der Selektoratstheorie von Bueno de Mesquite et al. wird die Hypothese aufgestellt, dass die Performanz politischer Regime mit der Größe der Winning Coalition steigt. Da verschiedene Autokratietypen unterschiedlich große Winning Coalitions haben, wird angenommen, dass es deutliche Performanzunterschiede zwischen diesen Typen gibt. Als Performanzkriterien dienen in dieser Arbeit wirtschaftlicher Wohlstand, soziale Sicherheit und ökologische Nachhaltigkeit. Aus diesen drei Kriterien wird zusätzlich ein Indikator allgemeiner Performanz gebildet. Die empirische Untersuchung erfolgt mit den Daten des Quality-of-Governement-Datensatzes und erstreckt sich über 140 autokratische Länder im Zeitraum von 1972 bis 2010. Die Daten werden mittels Time-Series-Cross-Section-Regressionen analysiert. Die Ergebnisse der Analysen entsprechen nur teilweise den Erwartungen. Die Größe der Winning Coalition wirkt positiv auf die wirtschaftliche Wohlfahrt und die soziale Sicherheit und damit auch auf die allgemeine Performanz aus. Entgegen den Erwartungen sinkt die ökologische Performanz jedoch mit steigender Größe der Winning Coalition. Auch die Befunde bezüglich der Performanz verschiedener Autokratietypen entsprechen nicht den Erwartungen. So sind Ein-Parteien-Regime insgesamt leistungsfähiger als Mehr-Parteien-Regime, Militär-Regime und Monarchien. Militär-Regime sind leistungsfähiger als Monarchien und tendenziell auch als Mehr-Parteien-Regime.

The Beauty and the Beast. A Tale of Democratic Crises and Globalization

There are two competing hypotheses concerning the connection between democracy and globalization. The critics hold globalization responsible for an ongoing crisis of democracy. The enthusiasts highlight the positive contributions of financial openness and international political cooperation on the development of democracy. In this contribution the author investigates the interrelation between globalization and the quality of established democracies. He introduces the Democracy Barometer, a new instrument that measures the quality of democracy in 30 established democratic regimes between 1995 and 2005 and that explicitly does not measure sustainable government because it aims at serving as dependent as well as independent variable to explain different economic, societal and natural environment, i.e. sustainable development. Based on this instrument, the author first shows that one cannot speak of an ongoing crisis of (established) democracies. Second, he also conducts several multilevel analyses to model the different developments of the quality of democracy in the different countries. The author then shows that economy, i.e. economic globalization indeed has a positive impact on the quality of democracy. However, this impact is stronger in stable, i.e. older than in younger established democracies. Further investigations show that a high quality of democracy also goes hand in hand with societal and environmental performance.

Democratic purgatory: The failure of democracy in Venezuela

This research provides an understanding of the conditions that presage the failure of consolidated democratic political regimes through constitutional processes. In seeking to answer the question of how democracy might fail through democratic means, this study has revealed a gap in the literature on democratization. Venezuela was selected as a heuristic case study to explain this phenomenon. Heuristic case studies place less emphasis on the more configurative or descriptive elements of the case itself, and instead see the case as a point of departure for the formulations of theoretical propositions. While in-case hypotheses are possible, heuristic case studies make it an explicit research plan to tease out mechanisms that exist in a particular case study that might survive in other situations. ^ This study demonstrates that the elements in society that act as direct participants in the establishment of a democratic political system are able to maintain their position in the new order largely through an expansion of their ability to meet popular demands through clientelistic arrangements. While these corporatist groups may serve to facilitate social mobilization during the establishment of democratic regimes, they do so only in so far as they can maintain social control of in-group membership without fully providing for representative democracy. Once these democratic institutions are consolidated as key parts of the democratic structure, these corporatist arrangements provide for a type of unstable democratic purgatory: democracy is not fully representative, yet it is not completely unresponsive to the demands of the electorate. ^ The condition of democratic purgatory produces a paradox whereby democracy can be undemocratic under certain conditions. The stability of these regimes allows for democratic consolidation, despite the undemocratic basis of legitimacy. While these regimes can undergo consolidation, ultimately, this condition is unstable: either these regimes must establish an endogenous basis of political legitimacy (one that is not simply a function of the corporatist/clientelistic political structure), or the democracy will suffer a qualitative decline that may result in a democratic breakdown. Furthermore, this study finds that the viability of any type of democratic regime rests upon its adaptability to ensure adequate representativeness. ^

DEMOCRACY ISN'T THAT SMART (BUT WE CAN MAKE IT SMARTER): ON LANDEMORE'S DEMOCRATIC REASON

Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016In her recent book, Democratic Reason, Hélène Landemore argues that, when evaluated epistemically, “a democratic decision procedure is likely to be a better decision procedure than any non-democratic decision procedures, such as a council of experts or a benevolent dictator” (p. 3). Landemore's argument rests heavily on studies of collective intelligence done by Lu Hong and Scott Page. These studies purport to show that cognitive diversity – differences in how people solve problems – is actually more important to overall group performance than average individual ability – how smart the individual members are. Landemore's argument aims to extrapolate from these results to the conclusion that democracy is epistemically better than any non-democratic rival. I argue here that Hong and Page's results actually undermine, rather than support, this conclusion. More specifically, I argue that the results do not show that democracy is better than any non-democratic alternative, and that in fact, they suggest the opposite – that at least some non-democratic alternatives are likely to epistemically outperform democracy.

Temor, silencio y deliberación: la inhibición de la opinión en Tucídides

Tucídides es una de nuestras mejores fuentes de información para conocer la práctica argumentativa de la deliberación democrática. En este trabajo se analiza uno de los vicios que, según el historiador, haría su aparición en la escena política ateniense a la muerte de Pericles: la instrumentalización del miedo para obtener la victoria momentánea en la asamblea. El temor prudente, que fuera una arma periclea para conducir la deliberación racional en aras del bien común, habría desaparecido siendo sustituido por el amedrentamiento del rival, la calumnia, el obstruccionismo y la parálisis de la confrontación dialéctica. Instauradas en la ciudad la desconfianza y la sospecha de ocultación, los golpistas del 411 hallaron el terreno abonado para callar las voces contrarias y, gracias al silencio, instaurar el terror.

Blogs, Twitter, and breaking news : the produsage of citizen journalism

Debates over the role and relevance of what has been described as citizen journalism have existed at least since the late 1990s; positions have ranged from the fulsome dismissal of such bottom-up journalism activities (and indeed, almost all user-led content creation) as being part of a new "cult ofthe amateur" (Keen, 2007) to nearly equally simplistic perspectives which predicted citizen journalists would replace the mainstream journalism industry within a short timeframe. A more considered, more realistic perspective would take a somewhat more moderate view. Aided by circumstances including the long-term financial crisis enveloping journalism industries in many developed nations, the creeping corporatization and politicization of journalistic activities in democratic and non-democratic countries alike, and the largely unmet challenge of new, Internet-based media fonns, citizen journalism (as well as other parajournalistic media, including TV comedy such as The Daily Show) has been able to make credible inroads into what used to be the domain of journalism proper.

Studying electrons on curved surfaces by trapping and manipulating multielectron bubbles in liquid helium

Investigations of two-dimensional electron systems (2DES) have been achieved with two model experimental systems, covering two distinct, non-overlapping regimes of the 2DES phase diagram, namely the quantum liquid phase in semiconducting heterostructures and the classical phases observed in electrons confined above the surface of liquid helium. Multielectron bubbles in liquid helium offer an exciting possibility to bridge this gap in the phase diagram, as well as to study the properties of electrons on curved flexible surfaces. However, this approach has been limited because all experimental studies have so far been transient in nature. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to trap and manipulate multielectron bubbles in a conventional Paul trap for several hundreds of milliseconds, enabling reliable measurements of their physical properties and thereby gaining valuable insight to various aspects of curved 2DES that were previously unexplored.

Confiança e democracia : aspectos de uma instável união estável

Na linguagem comum, confiança denota "segurança íntima de procedimento", "fé" e "esperança", de acordo com o Novo Dicionário Aurélio Buarque de Holanda. Na Ciência Política, a confiança aparece como facilitadora dos regimes democráticos, em uma literatura que, apesar das críticas, atravessa diversos momentos históricos, sendo aplicada, "democraticamente", em diversos países, há quase cinquenta anos. O artigo revisa essa literatura, por vezes incompreendida, para melhor entender aspectos da instável relação entre confiança e democracia: uma união estável muito próxima das bodas de ouro nessa bibliografia. Releva ainda a importância da mesma em democracias como o Brasil, que este ano comemora bodas de prata - 25 anos de regime democrático sem interrupção -, em um cenário de grandes assimetrias sociais e desafios inerentes ao processo de consolidação.

O poder legislativo nas democracias contemporâneas

O artigo busca refletir sobre a relação entre os Poderes Legislativo e Executivo nos regimes democráticos. Utilizando o método argumentativo, verifica que o Legislativo não esta perdendo poder para o Executivo. .

Développement des méthodes de stabilisation pour la conception des circuits hyperfréquences : application à l'optimisation d'un amplificateur de puissance spatial

209 p. : graf.

Branes and supersymmetric quantum field theories

Since the discovery of D-branes as non-perturbative, dynamic objects in string theory, various configurations of branes in type IIA/B string theory and M-theory have been considered to study their low-energy dynamics described by supersymmetric quantum field theories.

One example of such a construction is based on the description of Seiberg-Witten curves of four-dimensional N = 2 supersymmetric gauge theories as branes in type IIA string theory and M-theory. This enables us to study the gauge theories in strongly-coupled regimes. Spectral networks are another tool for utilizing branes to study non-perturbative regimes of two- and four-dimensional supersymmetric theories. Using spectral networks of a Seiberg-Witten theory we can find its BPS spectrum, which is protected from quantum corrections by supersymmetry, and also the BPS spectrum of a related two-dimensional N = (2,2) theory whose (twisted) superpotential is determined by the Seiberg-Witten curve. When we don’t know the perturbative description of such a theory, its spectrum obtained via spectral networks is a useful piece of information. In this thesis we illustrate these ideas with examples of the use of Seiberg-Witten curves and spectral networks to understand various two- and four-dimensional supersymmetric theories.

First, we examine how the geometry of a Seiberg-Witten curve serves as a useful tool for identifying various limits of the parameters of the Seiberg-Witten theory, including Argyres-Seiberg duality and Argyres-Douglas fixed points. Next, we consider the low-energy limit of a two-dimensional N = (2, 2) supersymmetric theory from an M-theory brane configuration whose (twisted) superpotential is determined by the geometry of the branes. We show that, when the two-dimensional theory flows to its infra-red fixed point, particular cases realize Kazama-Suzuki coset models. We also study the BPS spectrum of an Argyres-Douglas type superconformal field theory on the Coulomb branch by using its spectral networks. We provide strong evidence of the equivalence of superconformal field theories from different string-theoretic constructions by comparing their BPS spectra.

Democracia e participação no Brasil: um estudo de caso das conferências nacionais de políticas públicas de 2003-2010.

O Brasil conviveu, a partir da sua redemocratização, com um processo de criação de inovações democráticas participativas e deliberativas. Ao longo da década de 90, tais experimentos estiveram, sobretudo, ligados à dinâmica política local. A partir de 2003, tal fenômeno expande-se à dinâmica nacional via potencialização da experiência das Conferências Nacionais de Políticas Públicas (CNPPs). Tal dinâmica desafia argumentos baseados na impossibilidade de se compatibilizar a dinâmica democrática contemporânea com ampliação da participação para além do direito de votar. A hipótese dessa dissertação é a possibilidade de conceber as inovações democráticas em questão como mecanismos participativos e deliberativos capazes de aprofundar os regimes democráticos atuais. Tomando como objeto de estudo as conferências, pretende-se investigar seu potencial de pluralizar o processo de agregação de preferências societais, indicando sua capacidade de impactar no ciclo da formulação de políticas públicas, tornando, por consequência, as instituições representativas mais responsivas às demandas da sociedade. O teste empírico será realizado a partir do cruzamento entre deliberações das CNPPs e proposições legislativas no período de 2003-2010.

Como viabilizar reformas politicamente improváveis? mudanças da previdência nos governos FHC e Lula.

Reformas da previdência são empreendimentos de difícil realização em regimes democráticos. Afinal, costumam gerar benefícios difusos e percebidos no longo prazo em troca de custos mais imediatos e concentrados em grupos populacionais mais atentos à iniciativa, reconhecida assim como impopular. Contudo, a dinâmica de fatores econômicos e demográficos pode aumentar a necessidade de uma reforma a ponto de, em certos momentos, superar o constrangimento político de sua impopularidade, como se observou no Brasil em diferentes governos. Esta tese apresenta novas evidências da dificuldade encontrada por diferentes chefes do Executivo brasileiro ao submeter projetos reformadores da previdência ao Congresso Nacional, pois os parlamentares, de modo geral, revelaram-se sistematicamente menos propensos a apoiar o governo nessas iniciativas do que em outras com características semelhantes. Em particular, demonstra-se que a resistência do Legislativo foi notavelmente maior na reforma do governo FHC do que na realizada pelo governo Lula e conclui-se que o comportamento mais dócil da oposição ao segundo foi o principal determinante para reduzir a dificuldade na tramitação de seu projeto. Sobre as razões da dificuldade de reformar a previdência nos regimes democráticos em geral, a tese obtém sua conclusão de um exame sobre o contexto mais amplo da reforma do Estado no Brasil à luz de achados basilares da ciência política e, sobretudo, da área de estudos legislativos, a cuja literatura busca adicionar sua contribuição.

The Backing of Government Debt and the Price Level

This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. The government is characterized by a long-run fiscal policy rule whereby a given fraction of the outstanding debt, say d, is backed by the present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. The remaining debt is backed by seigniorage revenue. The parameter d characterizes the interdependence between fiscal and monetary authorities. It is shown that in a standard monetary economy, this policy rule implies that the price level depends not only on the money stock, but also on the proportion of debt that is backed with money. Empirical estimates of d are obtained for OECD countries using data on nominal consumption, monetary base, and debt. Results indicate that debt plays only a minor role in the determination of the price level in these economies. Estimates of d correlate well with institutional measures of central bank independence.

Les fondements de la désobéissance civile

Ce mémoire sur les fondements de la désobéissance civile se divise en trois parties. Le premier chapitre concerne la définition de la désobéissance civile d’après l’analyse d’Hugo Adam Bedau. Le deuxième chapitre traite des origines historiques du concept à partir des textes de David Henry Thoreau et Léon Tolstoï jusqu’aux campagnes de Mohandas Gandhi et Martin Luther King. Le dernier chapitre porte sur la pratique de la désobéissance civile dans les régimes démocratiques selon John Rawls. L’objectif de ce mémoire est de démontrer que la désobéissance civile est conforme à la justice malgré son caractère illégal, qu’elle a été bénéfique historiquement à l’évolution des mentalités et qu’elle est nécessaire en démocratie.