Monen vaihtoehdon kansanäänestykset ja enemmistöjen mystiikka

Abstract: Referenda with multiple alternatives and the mystique of majorities

A Carrot and Stick Approach to Agenda-Setting

This paper models a legislature in which the same agenda setter serves for two periods, showing how he can exploit a legislature (completely) in the first period by promising future benefits to legislators who support him. In equilibrium, a large majority of legislators vote for the first-period proposal because they thereby maintain the chance of belonging to the minimum winning coalition in the future. Legislators may therefore approve policies by large majorities, or even unanimously, that benefit few, or even none, of them. The results are robust; but institutional arrangements (such as entitlements) can reduce the agenda setter's power by reducing his discretion to reward and punish legislators, and rules (such as sequential voting) can increase a legislator's ability to resist exploitation. Keywords: Legislative bargaining, distributive politics, agenda-setting, proposal power. JEL C72, D72, D78.

El sistema electoral de les Corts Valencianes: orígens i reforma

[cat] Aquest article vol refutar la hipòtesi que els partits decideixen sistemes electorals majoritaris i que decideixen també mantenir-los invariables, sempre que el sistema de partits s"aproximi al bipartidisme i cap dels dos grans partits pugui perdre la seva posició a favor d"un nou competidor. De manera inversa, els sistemes electorals proporcionals són la conseqüència del multipartidisme, en el qual cap partit té opcions de rebre la majoria dels vots. El cas valencià, però, confirma només parcialment la hipòtesi: els partits van aprovar el 1982 regles proporcionals perquè les eleccions dels parlaments autonòmics eren considerades secundàries, no només pel multipartidisme existent aleshores. En canvi, sí que es confirma que el canvi iniciat el 2006 amb la reforma estatutària manté, de moment, l"status quo per no alterar la formació de majories parlamentàries. Encara queda pendent, però, que es modifiqui la Llei Electoral, de la qual depèn quin mínim de vots per entrar a les Corts s"establirà.

The Same, but Different: Central Banks, Regulatory Agencies, and the Politics of Delegation to Independent Authorities

Independent regulatory agencies are the institutional foundations of the regulatory state that, during the past 15 years, has gained prominence throughout Europe. This article studies the rise of independent authorities in European countries by comparing regulatory agencies and central banks. Delegation to independent central banks and to independent regulatory agencies is similar in many respects. In both cases, agents are deliberately made independent from political principals through a specific institutional design. Moreover, it has been argued that delegation to both central banks and regulatory agencies is linked to the need for policy-makers to improve the credibility of policy commitments, to the wish of incumbent politicians to tie the hands of future majorities, and to the extent to which the institutional contexts safeguard policy stability. Through an analysis of the formal independence of central banks and regulatory agencies in Western Europe, this article identifies an empirical puzzle that casts doubts on the accuracy of current explanations. Veto players and the uncertainty of incumbent policy-makers in respect to their re-election prospects matter for delegation to both central banks and regulatory agencies, but in opposite ways. Making sense of these anomalies is necessary to achieve a better understanding of delegation to independent authorities.

The institutional choices of politicians : how and why legislators shape Lower Chambers

Cette thèse s’intéresse aux choix institutionnels des législateurs. Elle propose une analyse diachronique et comparative du développement des Chambre Nationale des Députés argentines et chiliennes des années 1940 aux années 2000. Inspiré de la théorie du Cartel (Cox et McCubbins, 1993), ce travail se concentre sur le rôle des partis politiques dans ce développement institutionnel. Il montre qu’en dépit de leurs différences, les partis uniques, coalitions, forces majoritaires ou minoritaires qui ont dirigé ces chambres ont adopté un large éventail de règles et de normes organisationnelles qui les avantagent. Ils se sont, en un mot, comportés comme des coalitions procédurales. L’analyse des modifications des règles de fonctionnement de ces chambres et de leurs systèmes de direction et de commissions montre que les partis et coalitions au pouvoir ont, pendant cette période, renforcé leur pouvoir, contrôlé l’agenda législatif, structuré les systèmes de commission et adopté des règles qui leur ont profité. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent en particulier que les coalitions qui ont dirigé la chambre Chilienne ont installé certains de leurs membres à plusieurs postes comme les présidences d’assemblée et de commissions. Ils montrent l’existence d’un pouvoir de véto sur l’agenda législative plus importante au Chili qu’en Argentine. L’étude du cas argentin montre que les partis au pouvoir ont, en particulier depuis les années 1960, conservé le contrôle de la chambre, non seulement en modifiant les règles et les structures du système de commissions, mais également en créant et distribuant à l’opposition des postes permanents mais sans réel pouvoir. Cette analyse confirme également les résultats obtenus par de récentes études concernant ce champ de recherche, notamment le professionnalisme du système de commission chilien et le caractère amateur des législateurs argentins. A l’inverse, elle met à jour des différences, négligées jusqu’alors, entre l’Argentine et le Chili concernant le contrôle de l’agenda législatif. Cette thèse est divisée en sept chapitres. Le premier introduit le sujet, l’hypothèse générale et les questions posées par la thèse, en expliquant également pourquoi les choix institutionnels des législateurs importent. Le chapitre II présente la théorie et la méthodologie. Il propose une définition du développement institutionnel et explicite les prédictions et critères permettant de tester l’hypothèse générale. Les chapitre III et IV, qui concernent respectivement l’Argentine et le Chili, décrivent le système politique de chaque pays et l’organisation des chambres durant la période étudiée. Les chapitre IV et VI, respectivement pour l’Argentine et le Chili, analysent les réformes des règles régissant les chambres, l’évolution de l’autorité qui les dirige et celle du système de commission. Ces chapitres se concluent par un résumé des différents schémas mis en évidence et une évaluation préliminaire de l’hypothèse générale. En conclusion, le chapitre VII résume les découvertes, donne un verdict global sur la fécondité de la théorie et suggère de nouvelles pistes de recherche.

L’opinion des Canadiens et des Américains au sujet des changements climatiques: un écart important?

Cette note présente des résultats de deux importants sondages menés en parallèle dans les deux pays. Au Canada, nos données sont tirées du plus récent Canadian Survey on Energy and the Environment (CSEE, Lachapelle et al. 2015) et aux États-Unis, nous rapportons les résultats du National Survey on Energy and the Environment (NSEE). Réalisés au mois de septembre 2015, ces deux sondages ont soumis les mêmes questions à des échantillons représentatifs des populations du Canada et des États-Unis.

La securitización de la migración internacional: percepción de la UE sobre el flujo de rumanos hacia el Reino Unido 2007-2014

Actualmente, el concepto de seguridad ha logrado expandirse hacia la inclusión de amenazas no tradicionales. En este contexto, el fenómeno de la migración internacional empieza a hacer parte de la agenda de algunos gobiernos, entendiéndose como un asunto que amenaza la seguridad del Estado. El interés de esta monografía gira en torno a examinar el discurso securitizador del Reino Unido sobre la inmigración rumana entre 2007-2014, con el fin de determinar la incidencia que este ha tenido en la percepción de la migración internacional como un asunto de seguridad en la UE. Al entender el discurso del Reino Unido a la luz de la teoría de securitización e incluir el análisis de la opinión pública europea, se observa que, si bien el discurso ha influido en el contexto doméstico, éste ha tenido una baja incidencia en la percepción de la migración internacional como un asunto de seguridad en la UE.

Vozes d'África Transatlântica: trajetórias estudantis de Cabo Verde e da Guiné-Bissau - programa de estudantes - convénio de graduação

A presente investigação tem como centralidade a mobilidade internacional de estudantes no caso, a dos africanos oriundos de Cabo Verde e da Guiné-Bissau, participantes do Programa Estudantes-Convênio de Graduação na Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, inserida no fenômeno da internacionalização universitária, acentuada na globalização. O objetivo principal foi analisar o processo de inserção social e acadêmica desses estudantes, com ênfase para os dos cursos de Arquitetura e Urbanismo, Ciências da Computação, Engenharia da Computação e Medicina, nessa Instituição de Ensino Superior - IES. A metodologia foi norteada pela conjugação dos aportes teóricos e metodológicos qualiquantitativa, em que, na primeira, utilizou-se da entrevista semiestrutura dirigida para dezesseis sujeitos; sendo, a metade estudantes e a outra docentes, cuja análise optou-se pela Análise de Discurso (AD) da linha francesa, resultando as formações discursivas: motivações da mobilidade, registro nacional de estrangeiro, identidade étnica, relações étnicoraciais e o PEC-G: seu funcionamento nas práticas sociais na UFRN. Já a pesquisa quantitativa, foi constituída pela aplicação do questionário para o universo de 40 estudantes dos dois grupos e de todas as áreas de conhecimento, cuja interpretação dos dados, recorreu-se ao Programa SPSS. Já, para o recorte dos cursos específicos, foi utilizado, o do Google Doc, os quais, estão expressos em tabelas e gráficos. Os resultados revelaram que essa mobilidade estudantil africana está imersa por um misto de semelhanças e diferenças entre o Brasil e dos Países Africanos de Língua Oficial Poruguesa - PALOP; e mais dos contextos das hierarquias entre os países centrais, semiperiféricos e periféricos, provocadas pelas políticas de reajustes estruturais sobre os serviços educacionais, Sousa (Santos 2008; 2010), que se refletem nas trajetórias acadêmicas temporária no país de acolhimento. Aqui, também, enfrenta as fragilidades e os avanços das políticas públicas do Sistema de Ensino Superior, implementadas pelo governo brasileiro nas IES. Em termos quantitativos para os quatros cursos analisados, em diferentes e curtos períodos, quanto a distribuição de vagas (acesso), formas de desligamentos e conclusão apontaram especificidades. E, grosso modo, o curso de Medicina, apresentou os melhores índices de conclusão, seguidos, pelos de Arquitetura e da Engenharia da Computação. A maioria dos estudantes são do sexo masculino, mais da metade está representada pelos oriundos de Cabo Verde, o restante, pelos da Guiné-Bissau. Enquanto, no curso de Ciências da Computação, foi nula a conclusão de curso, e em função deste histórico de baixo desempenho dos estudantes-convênio PEC-G, teria havido o fechamento de vagas. Mas, verificando-se, que os índices de conclusão nesses cursos, apresentou uma média abaixo dos cursos de graduação da UFRN, nos quais, esses estudantes são minoria ao lado dos afrobrasileiros nas universidades do Brasil.

Kvinnlig Könsstympning : Litteraturstudie om praktisk handläggning och komplikationsrisker vid förlossning

Today around 28 000 women originally from countries where FGM is practised, are living in Sweden. Many of them are at childbearing age which means that knowledge about FGM and its consequences is of outmost importance during delivery. The aim of this study is to describe current research on how to manage the delivery, regarding deinfibulation and the following stitching as well as the risk of complications when the labouring woman is mutilated. This review of literature is based on 12 scientific articles published between years 1989 – 2005. Five different databases have been searched with use of a large number of keywords.The review found that no scientific research has been carried out that describes how deinfibulation and following stitching should be managed when the woman is mutilated. All available articles within this area are referring to best practice only. The review also found that the conclusions of the studies are contradictory. The majority, however, show an increased frequency for prolonged labour that could be related to FGM. The three largest studies also show an increased rate of caesarean section among mutilated women. In the few studies that examine haemorrhage, the majorities show an increased tendency to bleed, that could be related to FGM. Several articles emphasize the importance of good routines for deinfibulation to reduce the risk for complications.In summary it can be established that due to methodological problems in many studies, no reliable conclusion can be made that the researched complications exists to a greater extent when the woman is mutilated

Hybrid political institutions and governability: the budgetary process in Brazil

In this paper we take a close look at some of the particular pathways by which majoritarian and consensual institutions affect governability. We demonstrate that the mix of majoritarian and consensual institutions found within a country can influence these pathways quite dramatically, such that they produce rather different consequences for governability, even when these pathways are relatively similar in nature. Particularly, we focus on the rules governing the relationship between the President and the Legislature, especially the appropriation of amendments proposed by legislators. In some presidential countries, the president possesses a partial veto (or a line-item veto) which allows him/her to approve or strike appropriations, which legislators introduce in amendments. Concentrating on the case of Brazil, we argue and demonstrate that whether or not the president can use this tool to sustain governing majorities (i.e., to increase governability) depends on the kind of amendment introduced by legislators. One kind, individual amendment, is linked to the majoritarian institution of a powerful presidency and therefore helps to increase governability. A second kind, collective amendment, is linked to consensual institutions and actually does not enhance legislative support for the Executive.

Agenda power in Brazil's Câmara dos Deputados , 1989 to 1999

This paper examines the structure of agenda power in the Brazilian Câmara dos Deputados (Chamber of Deputies). Our main question concerns when consistent agenda control by a single majority coalition, as opposed to agenda control by shifting majorities, has emerged in the post-1988 Câmara. Consistent agenda control emerges routinely in parliamentary regimes: the government commands a majority in the assembly; the legislative agenda is negotiated among the governing parties, typically with each able to “veto” the placement of bills on the agenda. However, the Câmara faces an external executive, the president, with substantial formal powers to set its agenda. Consistent agenda control thus can emerge only if the president chooses to ally with a majority coalition in the assembly. If the president always chose to form such an alliance—a presidentially-led agenda cartel—then one would expect some consistently parliamentary patterns in Brazil: the appointment of legislative party leaders to the cabinet; the use of statutes rather than decrees to achieve policy goals; the avoidance of bills that would pass and split the governing coalition. We find that only the Cardoso presidency displays consistent evidence of such a presidentiallyled agenda cartel. In this sense, our argument differs from that of Figueiredo and Limongi (1999; 2000), who argue that presidents have consistently pursued a parliamentary mode of governance in Brazil. Yet it also differs from those who argue that presidents have consistently pursued a shifting-coalitions strategy. Our results suggest that presidents make a strategic choice, with much hinging on that choice.

Financial governance: the Brazilian experience on prudential regulation and its impacts on the effects of the 2008 financial crisis

The Brazilian economy was severely hit by the 2008 crisis. In the beginning of the crisis, the vast majorities of the economic agents and authorities thought that Brazil could face some sort of decoupling since some macroeconomic fundamentals were very good. What we saw, however, was that the Brazilian economy was not decoupled, and expectations faced a huge deterioration soon after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 15th. Two aspects regarding the impact of crisis in Brazil, however, deserve a great deal of attention: (a) although deep, the impact did not last for a long time. Actually, the GDP growth experienced a good recovery in the second quarter of 2009, showing that the health of the Brazilian economy was good; (b) the Brazilian banking system performed very well during the crisis, although we cannot say the system was not in danger in the worst time of the crisis. In spite of the confidence crisis faced by the banking system 1, it showed a great deal of resilience. In this aspect, we argue that the restructure faced by the banking system in the aftermath of the Real Plan, as well as the development of a solid supervision regulation helped a lot the system to avoid the systemic crisis that was an open possibility to the Brazilian banking system in the end of 2008. These notes, thus, discusse why the Brazilian banking system performed pretty well in the 2008 financial crisis and how the Brazilian banking (and prudential) regulation can be taken as responsible for this good performance. More specifically, the paper back to the middle of the 1990s, when the Real Plan was implemented, in order to understand the role played by the restructuring of the Brazilian financial system in helping to pave the way to the great resilience experienced by the Brazilian banking system during the 2008 crisis. More specifically, the prudential regulation that was implemented in Brazil in the aftermath of the Real Plan seems to play a decisive role in the resilience of the system nowadays.

Estabilidade constitucional e acordos constitucionais: os processos constituintes de Brasil (1987-1988) e Espanha (1977-1978)

O artigo analisa os acordos que formaram as maiorias nas assembléias constituintes de Brasil (1987-1988) e Espanha (1977-1978), buscando indentificar sua contribuição para a estabilidade constitucional dos dois países. O estudo foi desenvolvido em três níveis: estudo das normas regimentais das assembléias constituintes; tabulação das votações que aprovaram dispositivos constitucionais; e análise dos debates constitucionais, na qual foram identificados três processos de formação de maiorias, concessões mútuas, não-decisão e maioria aritmética. O trabalho demonstra que o uso de concessões mútuas e da não-decisão na constituinte favorece o processo de construção do consenso em torno da constituição, contribuindo para sua estabilidade.

Ontopolíticas e diagramas históricos do poder: maioria e minoria segundo Deleuze e a teoria das multidões segundo Peirce

This article aims at developing the so-called ontopolitics as G. Deleuze s innovative contribution to contemporary political philosophy. This objective will lead us to inspect the concept of power that Deleuze borrowed from Foucault and extended in order to assign to it an ontological adequacy. The concept of power opens access to another important element of the Deleuzean political philosophy, that is, the study of the historical diagrams of the power in the so-called discipline and control societies. With the combined dynamical diagram of both, we become aware of the portrait Deleuze draws for the democracy in contemporary societies. Digging into the Deleuzean ontopolitics, we will devote ourselves to the concepts of majority, minority and minor-becoming. It is in this point that the meeting between Deleuze s ontoplitics and Ch. Sanders Peirce s mathematical ontology becomes sound. It happens that Deleuze s ontopolitical concepts, besides their bond to an ontology of the power, receive also a mathematical treatment related to certain arithmetical (denumerable and nondenumerable) and geometrical notions (lines). The majorities and minorities are denumerable sets which are crossed by nondenumerable becomings. This step done, we will reach the stand point of the present paper, where we carry out initial approach with regard to an image for the concepts of majority and minority on the basis of Peirce s theory of collections and multitudes, mostly envisaging the mathematical ontology included in it. Accordingly, the main operation to be accomplished is that the Deleuzean distinction between the denumerable majorities/minorities and the nondenumerable mino-becoming may be mapped out in terms of discrete collections called enumerable, denumerable and abnumerable or postnumerable, in compliance with Peirce s terminology.

Participação política, planos diretores e gestão urbana sob o Estatuto da Cidade

The hegemonic version of democracy is based on Schumpeter’s approach, a legacy of liberal pluralism that reduces the formation of legitimate majorities through representation. Nevertheless, the democratization of authoritarian countries has provided innovative experiences of civil society in new participatory formats. At the institutional level, the Statute of the City regulated the chapter of the Urban Policy of the Federal Constitution of 1988. It advocates participatory formats of public policies in urban management “through public participation and representative associations”. The construction of this agenda is the result of institutional imposition and it reflects the government decisions and civil society demands. This paper analyzes the participation, its ability to share decisions, and to what extent these participatory formats depend on governments for the implementation of new paradigms of urban management. The approach combines theoretical and empirical analysis of development processes of Master Plans normatively guided by the City Statute. The empirical basis is formed by three medium-sized cities in Sao Paulo state: Piracicaba, Bauru and Rio Claro.