An Exorbitant Privilege in the First Age of International Financial Integration

The exorbitant privilege literature analyzes the positive differential returns on net foreign assets enjoyed by the United States in the last quarter of the twentieth century as the issuer of the global reserve currency. In the first age of international financial integration (1870-1914), the global reserve currency of the period was the British pound sterling. Whether the United Kingdom enjoyed a similar privilege is analyzed with a new dataset, encompassing microdata on railroad and government financial securities. The use of microdata avoids the flaws that have plagued the US studies, particularly the use of incompatible aggregate variables. New measures of Britain’s net external position provide estimates on capital gains and dividend yields. As the issuer of the global reserve currency, Britain received average revenues of 13.4% of GDP from its international investment position. The country satisfied the necessary condition for the existence of an exorbitant privilege. Nonetheless, Britain’s case is slightly different from the American one. British external assets received higher returns than were paid on external liabilities for each class, but British invested mostly in securities with low profile of risk. The low return on its net external position meant that, for most of the time, Britain would not receive positive revenues from the rest of the world if it were a net debtor country, but this pattern changed after 1900. The finding supports the claim that, at least partially, exorbitant privilege is a general characteristic of the issuer of the global reserve currency and not unique to the late twentieth century US.

The introduction of a financial transaction tax in Italy

Mestrado em Finanças

Undermined climate policies : a study on the impact of regulatory and financial discrimination across heterogeneous firms in China

Firms in China within the same industry but with different ownership and size have very different production functions and can face very different emission regulations and financial conditions. This fact has largely been ignored in most of the existing literature on climate change. Using a newly augmented Chinese input–output table in which information about firm size and ownership are explicitly reported, this paper employs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of alternative climate policy designs with respect to regulation and financial conditions on heterogeneous firms. The simulation results indicate that with a business-as-usual regulatory structure, the effectiveness and economic efficiency of climate policies is significantly undermined. Expanding regulation to cover additional firms has a first-order effect of improving efficiency. However, over-investment in energy technologies in certain firms may decrease the overall efficiency of investments and dampen long-term economic growth by competing with other fixed-capital investments for financial resources. Therefore, a market-oriented arrangement for sharing emission reduction burden and a mechanism for allocating green investment is crucial for China to achieve a more ambitious emission target in the long run.

Impacto del Programa de Alimentación Escolar en el Trabajo Infantil: Una aproximación desde la toma de decisiones familiares

Esta investigación analiza el impacto del Programa de Alimentación Escolar en el trabajo infantil en Colombia a través de varias técnicas de evaluación de impacto que incluyen emparejamiento simple, emparejamiento genético y emparejamiento con reducción de sesgo. En particular, se encuentra que este programa disminuye la probabilidad de que los escolares trabajen alrededor de un 4%. Además, se explora que el trabajo infantil se reduce gracias a que el programa aumenta la seguridad alimentaria, lo que consecuentemente cambia las decisiones de los hogares y anula la carga laboral en los infantes. Son numerosos los avances en primera infancia llevados a cabo por el Estado, sin embargo, estos resultados sirven de base para construir un marco conceptual en el que se deben rescatar y promover las políticas públicas alimentarias en toda la edad escolar.

Ciclos económicos, capital bancario y nuevas opciones de política económica

El objetivo de este trabajo es utilizar algunos hechos estilizados de la "Gran recesión", específicamente la drástica caída en el nivel de capitalización bancario, para analizar la relación entre los ciclos financieros y los ciclos reales, así como la efectividad de la política monetaria no convencional y las políticas macroprudenciales. Para esto, en el primer capítulo se desarrolla una microfundamentación de la banca a partir de un modelo de Costly State Verification, que es incluido posteriomente en distintas especificaciones de modelos DSGE. Los resultados muestran que: (i) los ciclos financieros y los ciclos económicos pueden relacionarse a partir del deterioro del capital bancario; (ii) Las políticas macroprudenciales y no convencionales son efectivas para moderar los ciclos económicos, pero son costosas en términos de recursos e inflación.

Topics in climate change risk

In this Thesis, we analyze how climate risk impacts economic players and its consequences on the financial markets. Essentially, literature unravels two main channels through which climate change poses risks to the status quo, namely physical and transitional risk, that we cover in three works. Firstly, the call for a global shift to a net-zero economy implicitly devalues assets that contribute to global warming that regulators are forcing to dismiss. On the other hand, abnormal changes in the temperatures as well as weather-related events challenge the environmental equilibrium and could directly affect operations as well as profitability. We start the analysis with the physical component, by presenting a statistical measure that generally represents shocks to the distribution of temperature anomalies. We oppose this statistic to classical physical measures and assess that it is the driver of the electricity consumption, in the weather derivatives market, and in the cross-section of equity returns. We find two transmission channels, namely investor attention, and firm operations. We then analyze the transition risk component, by associating a regulatory horizon characterization to fixed income valuation. We disentangle a risk driver for corporate bond overperformance that is tight to change in credit riskiness. After controlling a statistical learning algorithm to forecast excess returns, we include carbon emission metrics without clear evidence. Finally, we analyze the effects of change in carbon emission on a regulated market such as the EU ETS by selecting utility sector corporate bond and, after controlling for the possible risk factor, we document how a firm’s carbon profile differently affects the term structure of credit riskiness.

The Financial Services Regime in International Economic Law: on the Difficult Relationship between Trade Liberalization and Prudential Measures

The PhD thesis analyses the financial services regime in international economic law from the perspective of the difficult relationship between trade liberalisation and prudential measures. Financial stability plays a fundamental role for the well-being and well-functioning of the global economy, but, it is at the same time a complex sector to regulate and supervise and, especially after the 2007-08 economic crisis, States have tightened up their regulation of financial services, introducing more severe and protectionist prudential measures. However, in an increasingly interconnected global economy, the harmonization of prudential regulation at the international level is an essential step to guarantee integrity, fairness and stability of financial markets and trade. The research analyses the tools at disposition to achieve this aim, the related problematic issues and the perspectives and possible solutions for the future, starting from the World Trade Organization (WTO) legal framework and its General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), devoted to discipline trade in services among the WTO Members. Then, the research moves to a second legal instrument, the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), which has witnessed a remarkable spread in the last decades. Finally, the research addresses the international standards, developed by supranational entities and implemented by an increasing number of States, as they offer rules and guidelines adequate to update the international financial scenario. Nevertheless, the international standards alone cannot be the solution because, first, they are not mandatory, as governments decide voluntarily to apply them and, second, their decision-making process do not respect the requirements of transparency and representative membership. In light of this analysis, the thesis aims at providing an answer to its research question: how to give more certainty to States and economic operators in the planning of the domestic disciplines and business activities in order to provide a sound and stable international financial system.

Multifractal regime transition in a modified minority game model

The search for more realistic modeling of financial time series reveals several stylized facts of real markets. In this work we focus on the multifractal properties found in price and index signals. Although the usual minority game (MG) models do not exhibit multifractality, we study here one of its variants that does. We show that the nonsynchronous MG models in the nonergodic phase is multifractal and in this sense, together with other stylized facts, constitute a better modeling tool. Using the structure function (SF) approach we detected the stationary and the scaling range of the time series generated by the MG model and, from the linear (non-linear) behavior of the SF we identified the fractal (multifractal) regimes. Finally, using the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) technique we obtained its multifractal spectrum width for different dynamical regimes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.

Forma????o das elites pol??tico-administrativas no Brasil: as institui????es de pesquisa econ??mica aplicada

O presente estudo mostra o papel desempenhado pelas institui????es de pesquisa econ??mica, na forma????o das elites administrativas encarregadas da gest??o das pol??ticas macroecon??micas no Brasil, e como elas contribu??ram para a transforma????o de seus membros em importantes interlocutores pol??ticos. S??o, assim, analisados os mais significativos organismos governamentais e n??o-governamentais de pesquisa econ??mica aplicada, como o Ibre/FGV, o Ipea e a Fipe/USP. Alguns aspectos principais se destacam. Como think tanks, isto ??, ag??ncias independentes, mas produtoras de subs??dios para as pol??ticas governamentais, estes institutos s??o espa??os intermedi??rios entre o mundo acad??mico e o governo, a?? residindo sua particularidade. Indica-se ainda a import??ncia dos v??nculos estabelecidos entre estas institui????es de pesquisa, universidades americanas e organismos internacionais. Isso permitiu, relativamente, uma grande homogeneidade dos paradigmas te??ricos e pol??ticos orientadores das a????es dos gestores das pol??ticas econ??micas no pa??s, afinados com aqueles em vigor em ag??ncias como FMI, Banco Mundial, etc. Por fim, deve-se mencionar a quest??o da instabilidade institucional. Refletindo caracter??sticas mais amplas do sistema pol??tico brasileiro, as ag??ncias de pesquisa, especialmente as governamentais, t??m seu destino definido por vari??veis contingenciais, tais como o peso pol??tico de um patrono que as prestigie junto aos ??rg??os financiadores ou demandadores de encomendas p??blicas.

A crise financeira de 2008 e seus impactos na economia brasileira: uma análise sob a perspectiva de Minsky

Diante do colapso financeiro de 2008, este trabalho retoma a teoria econômica proposta por Hyman P. Minsky com o objetivo de esclarecer as circunstâncias que propiciaram uma crise financeira tão profunda. A estrutura analítica de Minsky é marcada pela Hipótese da Instabilidade Financeira, a qual aponta para fatores endógenos ao próprio sistema capitalista como o principal causador de instabilidades financeiras. Este processo, caracterizado principalmente por um avanço desfavorável no nível de endividamento dos agentes, constrói um ciclo de estágios que pode se desenvolver para uma crise financeira ou um colapso sistêmico, definidos como “Momento Minsky” e “Colapso Minsky”. Este cenário descrito por Minsky, também analisado à luz de teorias mais recentes como as de Gary A. Dymski e Alessandro Vercelli, é conhecido por “ciclo minskyano”. Ao adotar estes preceitos da análise teórica de Minsky, é possível visualizar como o processo de desregulamentação e fragilização financeira dos Estados Unidos nas décadas de 1980 e 1990 proveram condições para a crise do subprime e, posteriormente, o colapso financeiro de 2008. De maneira similar, é possível observar que a análise teórica de Minsky também é aplicável à crise que afeta a economia brasileira no final de 2008. A fragilização financeira que se inicia no Brasil poucos anos antes da crise, acentuada no setor exportador de commodities, cria a condição para o “momento Minsky brasileiro”, demonstrando que apesar das falhas da análise teórica de Minsky, que supõe uma economia fechada com características da economia estadunidense, é possível visualizar uma relação de causa e efeito da recente crise financeira com a teoria minskyana.

Capital Intelectual: sua divulgação no setor bancário em Portugal

The importance of intangible resources has increased dramatically in recent years comparing to tangible ones. The economy in which we live is the result of competitive pressures that have imposed the implementation of business at an international level as well as a requirement in the application of sophisticated technologies that allow us to follow this fast evolution. In this age of information and innovation organizations will only survive if they are inserted in a global network of strategic relations, generically called as the network economy by Lev (2003). The service sector has stood out against the more traditional sectors of the economy. The intensive use of knowledge and a strong customer orientation created a new reality in today’s organizations: a growing importance attached to innovation, to the quality of products and services offered, to the information and communication technologies adopted, and to the creativity and particular abilities of human resources. The concept of intangible assets is more common in an accounting language and intellectual capital is most often applied in the context of management, being associated with a more comprehensive, multidimensional approach, representing all the knowledge that the institution owns and that it applies in the form of expertise, the creativity and organizational competencies that lead to innovation and to the sustained attainment of future economic benefits. An analysis of the scope of intellectual capital is fundamental to take more appropriate management decisions so that a more appropriate accounting treatment could be given by the accounting standardization organizations. This study intends to analyse the practices of information disclosure of the intellectual capital in the banking sector in Portugal, complementing the analysis of the disclosure of intangible assets in the context of accounting standards with the disclosure of intellectual capital in the context of organizational management. In particular, our main aims are to identify the extent of disclosure of intellectual capital made by banks in Portugal and also to identify the factors that determine such a disclosure. The disclosure in the context of accounting standards will be studied by checking the disclosure of intangible assets through the items listed in the International Accounting Standard 38 developed by the International Accounting Standards Board. The context of management was analysed by means of creating a voluntary disclosure index based on assumptions of the model Intellectus, developed by the Centro de Investigación sobre la Sociedad del Conocimiento – Instituto de Administración de Empresas (CIC-IADE) of the Universidad Autónoma of Madrid, and of the model Intellectual Capital Statement (made in Europe) (InCaS), both promoted by the European Commission and that we have adapted to the banking sector. When analysing the disclosure of intangible assets based on the context of accounting standards and the voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital, this study has tried to raise awareness about the importance of issuing reports on the intellectual capital as an alternative tool to take management decisions in the existing organizations and reflects the transparency and legitimacy that these institutions seek through a more extensive and more detailed information disclosure of their intellectual capital. Based on a complimentarily of economic theories, together with social and political theories, we tried to check the extent, evolution and tendencies of the compulsory disclosure of intangible assets and of the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital analysed in the period 2001-2011. Banks characteristics were also analysed in order to deduce those factors that determine or promote a larger disclosure in this sector. Based on these objectives, we adopted a longitudinal approach to explore the extent and the development of the disclosure of intangible assets as well as the factors that have determined it. Furthermore, we sought to assess the impact of the adoption of IAS 38 in the financial statements of the organizations in this sector. The disclosure index created on the basis of the disclosure requirements stated in IAS 38 from IASB was applied to the consolidated financial statements of the seventeen banks that rendered their statements in Portugal from 2001 to 2009. Since the information disclosed in the context of accounting standards may not have an important role as a management tool once it was not able to reflect what really contributes to the competitiveness and organizational growth, the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital was analysed according to the information obtained from the 2010 annual individual reports of the banks operating in Portugal in that year and from their respective websites in 2011. We tried to analyse the extent of the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital and of each of its components, human capital, structural capital and relational capital. The comparative analysis of their annual reports and their web pages allowed us to assess the incidence of the disclosure and discover what channel the banking sector focuses on when disclosing their intellectual capital. Also in this analysis the study of the disclosure determinants has allowed us to conclude about the influence of particular characteristics in the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital. The results of the analysis to the extent of the disclosure of intangible assets in the consolidated financial statements of the banking groups in Portugal in the period 2001-2009 have shown an average information disclosure of 0.24. This information disclosure evolved from an average value of 0.1940 in 2001 to 0.2778 in 2009. The average value is 0.8286 if it is only considered the disclosure of the intangible assets that the banks possessed. The evolution of this index means an increase in the average disclosure from 0.7852 in 2001 to 0.8788 in 2009. From the first results that are related to the extent of the disclosure of intangible assets in the financial statements, we can verify that the banking groups present a low disclosure level of these resources. However, when considering the disclosure of only the intangible assets that each institution owns, the disclosure level appears to be in compliance with the disclosure requirements for this sector. An evolution in the disclosure of intangible assets for the period considered was confirmed, showing an increase in the information disclosure of intangible assets in 2005, the year in which the accounting rules for intangible assets changed. The analysis that focused on the disclosure in the context of management tried to understand the extent, the incidence and the determinants of the voluntary information disclosure of intellectual capital in the annual reports of 2010 and on their web pages in 2011, studying the 32 banks operating in Portugal in this period. The average voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital in the 2010 annual reports is 0.4342 while that in web pages is 0.2907. A review of the components of the intellectual capital allowed us to assess the importance that the banks confer to each of these components. The data obtained show that the relational capital, and more specifically the business capital, is the most disclosed component by banks in Portugal both in the annual reports and in their institutional web pages, followed by the structural capital and, finally, by the human capital. The disclosure of the human capital and the structural capital is higher in the annual reports than that in the websites, while the relational capital is more disclosed in the websites than in the annual reports. The results have also shown that the banks make a complementary use of both sources when disclosing information about their structural capital and relational capital but they do not show any information about their human capital in their websites. We tried to prove the influence of factors that could determine the accounting disclosure and the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital in this sector. The change in the IASB accounting rules as from January 1st 2005 gave a greater disclosure of accounting information of intangible assets in the financial statements of banks. The bank size and corporate governance measures have statistically proved to have an influence on the extent of the accounting disclosure of intangible assets and on the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital. Economic and financial variables such as profitability, operating efficiency or solvency were not determinants of information disclosure. The instability that the banking sector has experienced in economic and financial indicators in recent years as a result of the global financial markets imbalance has worsen indicators such as profitability, efficiency and solvency and caused major discrepancies in the economic situation between banks in Portugal. This empirical analysis has contributed to confront the disclosure required by accounting rules performed in the financial statements of organizations with that performed in the main disclosure media which is available for entities and which is increasingly requested in the process of taking management decisions. It also allowed us to verify whether there is homogeneity between institutions in the fulfilment of the requirements for information disclosure of intangible assets. However, as for voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital, there are large disparities in the disclosure extent between organizations. Regardless of this sector specific characteristics, the voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital made by banks in Portugal follows the trends in other sectors and the practices adopted in other countries, namely regarding the amount of information disclosed, the incidence of the disclosure on the indicators of relational capital and the importance of variables such as size as determinants of disclosure of intellectual capital. For a further knowledge in this field, we created a specific index for the banking sector, considering appropriate indicators for an incisive, comprehensive analysis in order to consider the most relevant indicators of intellectual capital components. Besides, confronting the analysis of disclosure in the context of accounting standards with the study of voluntary disclosure brought a new analysis approach to the research on intellectual capital disclosure. With this study, we have also intended to raise greater awareness of the need for harmonization in the intellectual capital disclosure on the part of the regulatory banking authority by means of a demanding, consistent and transparent report of intellectual capital with simple, clear, objective indicators so that those interested in disclosing intellectual capital information in the organizations in this sector may obtain more harmonized and comparable information. A research on the disclosure quality of intellectual capital, together with the application of other analysis methodologies in this sector, might be a promising approach for future research. Applying the voluntary disclosure index to the same sector in other countries may also contribute to the knowledge of disclosure practices in different geographical environments. We highlight the relevance of further studies contributing to the harmonization and consistency in the presentation of an intellectual capital report so as to enable organizations to disclose the resources that contribute most to their competitiveness and growth.

Os fundos éticos nos mercados nas Bolsas de Valores

É possível encontrar nos mercados de valores mobiliários e/ou outros instrumentos financeiros e/ou nas chamadas bolsas de valores - éticas concretas, reais e definidas? Pensamos que sim. Os fundos éticos são apenas uma das espécies de fundos. Abstract: You can find in the securities markets and / or other financial instruments and / or in so-called exchanges - concrete ethical, real and defined? We think so. Ethical funds are only one species of funds.

Volatilidade implícita: Importância na valorização das opções financeiras e significado dos índices de volatilidade implícita

Mestrado em Contabilidade Internacional

NCRF Nº 1 - estrutura e conteúdos das demosntrações financeiras e implicações fiscais e em auditoria

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria orientador: Dr. Rodrigo Mário de Oliveira Carvalho