On the limits of spectral methods for frequency estimation

An algorithm is presented which generates pairs of oscillatory random time series which have identical periodograms but differ in the number of oscillations. This result indicates the intrinsic limitations of spectral methods when it comes to the task of measuring frequencies. Other examples, one from medicine and one from bifurcation theory, are given, which also exhibit these limitations of spectral methods. For two methods of spectral estimation it is verified that the particular way end points are treated, which is specific to each method, is, for long enough time series, not relevant for the main result.

Cost performance of Irish credit unions

There are 424 credit unions in Ireland with assets under their control of €14.3bn and a membership of 2.5m which equates to about 66% of the economically active population, the highest penetration level of any country. That said, the Irish movement sits at a critical development stage, well behind mature markets such as Canada and the US in terms of product provision, technological sophistication, fragmentation of trade bodies and regulatory environment. This study analyses relative cost efficiency or performance of Irish credit unions using the popular frontier approach which measures an entity’s efficiency relative to a frontier of best practice. Parametric techniques are utilised, with variation in inefficiency being attributed to credit union-specific factors. The stochastic cost frontier parameters and the credit-union specific parameters are simultaneously estimated to produce valid statistical inferences. The study finds that the majority of Irish credit unions are not operating at optimal levels. It further highlights the factors which drive efficiency variation across credit unions and they include technological sophistication, ‘sponsor donated’ resources, interest rate differentials and the levels of bad debt written off

Framework for Establishing Limits of Tabular Aerodynamic Models for Flight Dynamics Analysis

This paper describes the use of the Euler equations for the generation and testing of tabular aerodynamic models for flight dynamics analysis. Maneuvers for the AGARD Standard Dynamics Model sharp leading-edge wind-tunnel geometry are considered as a test case. Wind-tunnel data is first used to validate the prediction of static and dynamic coefficients at both low and high angles, featuring complex vortical flow, with good agreement obtained at low to moderate angles of attack. Then the generation of aerodynamic tables is described based on a data fusion approach. Time-optimal maneuvers are generated based on these tables, including level flight trim, pull-ups at constant and varying incidence, and level and 90 degrees turns. The maneuver definition includes the aircraft states and also the control deflections to achieve the motion. The main point of the paper is then to assess the validity of the aerodynamic tables which were used to define the maneuvers. This is done by replaying them, including the control surface motions, through the time accurate computational fluid dynamics code. The resulting forces and moments are compared with the tabular values to assess the presence of inadequately modeled dynamic or unsteady effects. The agreement between the tables and the replay is demonstrated for slow maneuvers. Increasing rate maneuvers show discrepancies which are ascribed to vortical flow hysteresis at the higher rate motions. The framework is suitable for application to more complex viscous flow models, and is powerful for the assessment of the validity of aerodynamics models of the type currently used for studies of flight dynamics.

Credit Unions in Great Britain: Recent Trends and Current Prospects

Against the current backdrop of deteriorating economic and financial conditions we consider recent trends and current prospects for credit unions in Great Britain. We note that although credit unions have experienced solid membership and asset growth there are clouds on the horizon. Bad debts and loan arrears are on the rise and may be linked to recent legislative amendments and the increasing use by Government of credit unions as a mechanism to achieve its financial inclusion goals. Whatever the reason, the deterioration in the loan book needs to be quickly addressed, or it will ultimately result in either more government bailouts or a stream of failing credit unions.

Credit Unions: A Theoretical and Empirical Overview

In 2009 there were over 49,330 credit unions across 98 countries with more than 184 million members and approximately $1,354 billion in assets. There is a great diversity within the credit union movement across these countries. This reflects the various economic, historic and cultural contexts within which credit unions operate. This paper traces the evolution of the credit union movement. It examines credit union objectives, and considers issues relating to efficiency, technology adoption, product diversification, merger, failure and demutualization. The regulatory environment within which credit unions operate is also explored under the themes of interest rate regulation, common bond requirements, taxation, deposit insurance and capital regulation. The overview also considers demutualization and the costs and benefits to credit unions of altering their organizational form.

Unfunded pension liabilities and sponsoring firm credit risk: an international analysis of corporate bond spreads

This paper tests empirically whether pension information derived by corporate pension accounting disclosures is priced in corporate bond spreads. The model represents a hybrid of more traditional accounting ratio-based models of credit risk and structural models of bond spreads initiated by Merton (1974). The model is fitted to 5 years of data from 2002 to 2006 featuring companies from the US and Europe. The paper finds that while unfunded pension liabilities are priced in the overall sample, they are not priced as aggressively as traditional leverage. Furthermore, an extended model shows that the pension–credit risk relation is most evident in the US and Germany, where unfunded pension liabilities are priced more aggressively than traditional forms of leverage. No pension–credit risk relation is found in the other countries sampled, notably the UK, Netherlands and France.

Internet banking and Irish credit unions

The purpose of this paper is to examine IT adoption by Irish credit unions. Using probabilistic models, we explore one aspect of IT, that of internet banking technology, and assess the degree to which characteristics specific to the credit union and to its potential membership base influence adoption. Our
analysis suggests that asset size, organisational structure being a member of the Irish League of Credit Unions and the loan to asset ratio are all important credit union specific drivers of internet banking adoption. We also find that characteristics of the area from where the credit union captures its members are important. Factors such as the percentage of the population that is employed, the proportion of the population in the age bracket 35 to 44, the proportion of the population that have access to broadband and the level of familiarity with a local ATM facility are all identified as influencing the probability of adopting internet banking.

Limits on HDS/H2S abundance ratios in hot molecular cores

We have searched for HDS emission in a small number of hot cores. Using observations of (H2S)-S-34, we have derived upper limits to the [HDS]/[H2S] abundance ratio. The upper limits, which are close to 10(-3) can be interpreted in two ways, depending on whether grain surface reactions contribute to the formation of H2S. If grains do not dominate, then the H2S observed is formed in hot, post-shocked gas and a ratio close to the cosmic [D]/[H] ratio is expected for [HDS]/[H2S]. This scenario is consistent with our upper limits and with the relatively low abundance ratio found for [HDO]/[H2O] in hot cores but does not seem to account for all of the molecular [D]/[H] ratios observed in hot cores. If grains do dominate the formation of HBS, then the observed upper limit to the ratio is consistent with the formation of 'hot core ices' at a temperature of 60-80 K, close to the temperature at which cometary ices are thought to form.