Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conceptual Frameworks for SIA Revisited: a cumulative effects study on lead contamination and economic change

This article trials three conceptual frameworks on an Australian case study of a small remote city suffering lead contamination, with cumulative effects from concurrent economic change due to downsizing in the mining industry. It interprets the usefulness of these frameworks, and explores two questions: can they apply to circumstances other than project assessment, and what are their relative merits as guides to SIA? All the frameworks reviewed can be used in non-project and cumulative SIA, although, if they had been used to predict the impacts in our case study, we may easily have been misled as to the resilience of the community. Choosing among these frameworks becomes a matter personal preference: each has different merits.

Forest logging and institutional thresholds in developing south-east Asian economies: A conceptual model

Many developing south-east Asian governments are not capturing full rent from domestic forest logging operations. Such rent losses are commonly related to institutional failures, where informal institutions tend to dominate the control of forestry activity in spite of weakly enforced regulations. Our model is an attempt to add a new dimension to thinking about deforestation. We present a simple conceptual model, based on individual decisions rather than social or forest planning, which includes the human dynamics of participation in informal activity and the relatively slower ecological dynamics of changes in forest resources. We demonstrate how incumbent informal logging operations can be persistent, and that any spending aimed at replacing the informal institutions can only be successful if it pushes institutional settings past some threshold. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.