Expectativas y volatilidad condicionada: los tipos de interés en el mercado interbancario

En este trabajo examinamos si la teoría de expectativas con primas de liquidez constantes puede explicar la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés de pequeños vencimientos en el mercado interbancario de depósitos español, para datos mensuales desde 1977 hasta 1995. Utilizamos el contraste de Campbell y Shiller (1987) basado en un modelo VAR cointegrado. A partir de las estimaciones consistentes de dicho modelo obtenemos la magnitud y persistencia de los shocks a través de la simulación de la respuesta al impulso, y estimaciones eficientes de los parámetros modelizando la varianza condicional que es variable en el tiempo. En este sentido, se proponen varios esquemas de volatilidad que permiten plantear distintas aproximaciones de laincertidumbre en un entorno multiecuacional GARCH y que están basadas en el modelo de expectativas propuesto. La evidencia empírica muestra que se incumple la teoría de las expectativas, que existe una dinámica conjunta a corto plazo para los tipos de interés y el diferencial que está definida por un modelo VAR(4)-GARCH( 1,1)-BEKK (que está próximo a la integrabilidad en varianza), y que existen distintos factores de riesgo que afectan a las primas en los plazos estudiados

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Working capital management in the value chain of automotive industry

The objective of this Master’s thesis is to examine working capital management in the automotive industry in years 2006-2008. The study is conducted by the analysis of financial statements. The sample consists of 65 companies that represent different stages in the value chain of automotive industry beginning from raw material suppliers and ending to car dealers. Working capital management is studied by the cash conversion cycle (CCC). The results show that the average CCC of the value chain is 67 days. Car manufacturers had the longest CCC, 106 days, whereas the CCC of oil companies was the shortest, 22 days. The findings suggest that the cycle time of working capital usually follows the cycle time of inventories, since the changes in cycle times of accounts receivable and payable compensate each other. Improvements in working capital management could be achieved by sharing more accurate information in the chain for example about inventory levels and order points of customer. It could also be discussed within the automotive industry, if the long credit periods, which tie up working capital, are really needed. New technologies enable faster payments, which would reduce the cash conversion cycles, improve the profitability of companies, and increase the competitiveness of the value chain. Working capital should not be reduced at the expense of value chain partners, because nowadays the competition is rather between the value chains than between the companies. Similar research design is applied earlier to study working capital management in the value chain of pulp and paper industry. Even if the industries and the structures of the chains differ from each other, results were surprisingly similar. In future research, working capital management in other industries’ value chains could still be studied and compared to previous studies. ICT industry, for example, could be an interesting object.

Competências de Comunicação Clínica: Objetivos de Ensino-Aprendizagem para um Currículo Nuclear nas Áreas da Saúde

RESUMO Este ensaio destaca a importância das competências de comunicação clínica (CCC) nas ciências da saúde. Estas competências podem ser ensinadas, aprendidas e avaliadas, e vários estudos evidenciam para as vantagens de uma formação específica nesta área, potenciando a relação que os profissionais da área da saúde estabelecem com os pacientes, cuidadores informais e equipas de saúde, com resultados melhorados nos indicadores de saúde e cuidados mais humanizados. Confrontados com dificuldades na integração de programas específicos de comunicação nos curricula, assim como um défice no processo de avaliação e feedback estruturado, é crucial um investimento na formação pedagógica e no desenvolvimento curricular. Conscientes da escassez de trabalhos sistemáticos que apontam para um consenso sobre as competências e objetivos de ensino-aprendizagem das CCC, o sub-grupo Core Curriculum do comité de ensino (tEACH) da Associação Europeia de Comunicação em Saúde (EACH) desenvolveu e alcançou um consenso para um currículo nuclear nas diferentes áreas da saúde. Neste contexto, surgiu o Health Professions Core Communication Curriculum – HPCCC, que pode servir como referencial flexível de acordo com as necessidades específicas e contribuir para uma maior sistematização das iniciativas de CCC em saúde em língua portuguesa.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

The role of advance payments in working capital management and profitability

The objective of this thesis is to study the role of received advance payments in working capital management by creating a new measurement and to study the relationship between advance payments and profitability. The study has been conducted using narrative literature review and quantitative research methods. The research was made analyzing 108 companies listed in Helsinki Stock Exchange. The results indicate that 68 % of the studied companies are receiving advance payments and the average cycle time for received advance payments is 13 days. A new key figure is created to include received advance payments into the calculation of working capital. Received advance payments shorten the working capital cycle, by 13 days, when they are used in the calculation. The role of advance payments is not as significant as the role of receivables and inventories but advance payments may have a larger role than payables if the company is receiving noticeable amounts of advance payments. There are three branches where companies are receiving more advance payments than average companies. The branches are project business and ICT and publishing sectors. There is a negative correlation between profitability and advance payments based on the results of this study.

Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Influência de fitorreguladores de crescimentona produção de estolhosde morangueiro (Fragaria spp.)

O presente trabalho, conduzido no campo experimental do Setor de Horticultura da Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz", em Piracicaba (SP), teve como finalidade estudar a influência de diferentes fitorreguladores de crescimento na formação de estolhos em morangueiro (Fragaria spp.), cultivares Campinas e Monte Alegre. Foram aplicados os fitorreguladores: ácidoindolil- 3-acético (IAA), 30 ppm; ácido 2-(3-clorofenoxi) propiônico (CPA), 75 ppm; ácido giberélico (GA3), 30 ppm; cloreto de (2-cloroetil) trimetilamônio (CCC), 1500 ppm; sal potássico de 6-hidroxi-3-(2H) piridazinone (MH), 900 ppm; e ácido succinioo-2,2 dimetilhidrazida (SADH), 900 ppm; sendo que essas doses foram subdivididas, e aplicadas em três vezes, com intervalo de uma semana, iniciando-se a três semanas após o transplante das plantas do morangueiro para o local definitivo. Concluiu-se que, a cultivar Monte Alegre iniciou antes a emissão de estolhos e emitiu maior número deles em comparação com a 'Campinas'. Houve maior emissão de estolhos nas parcelas tratadas com GA3, CPA e IAA, e as que menos produziram estolhos foram as tratadas com MH.

Comparação entre diferentes concentrações e épocas de aplicação de cloreto de mepiquat, cloreto de clorocolina e ethephon em algodoeiro (Gossypium hirsutum L. cv. (AC - 17)

No ano agríco la de 1978/79 instalou-se um ensaio na área experimental da Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz", USP, em Piracicaba, SP, tendo por objetivo estudar os efeitos de reguladores vegetais, em diferentes doses e épocas de aplicação, sobre a cultura do algodoeiro (Gossypium hirsutum L. ). Os tratamentos utilizados foram: cloreto de mepiquat (DPC) nas concentrações de 84, 167 e 250ppm, cloreto de clorocolina (CCC) nas dosagens de 250, 380 e 450ppm e ethephon (CEPA) nas concentrações 1670, 3340 e 6880ppm, sendo cada substância aplicada 51, 65 e 143 dias após a germinação, respectivamente. CCC e DPC tornaram mais compacta a arquitetura das plantas de algodoeiro, assim como promoveram reduções nos parâmetros da análise de crescimento. O número de ramos produtivos e de maçãs não foi afetado por esses reguladores. Foram notadas algumas variações nos parâmetros de produtividade, sendo que CCC, DPC e CEPA tenderam a aumentar o peso médio de algodão por planta . Esses produtos não depreciaram os caracteres agronômicos do algodão, nem as características tecnológicas.

Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

Interdependence of International Stock Markets, European Government Bond Market and Gold Market

This thesis examines the interdependence of international stock markets (the USA, Europe, Japan, emerging markets, and frontier markets), European government bond market, and gold market during the 21st century. Special focus is on the dynamics of the correlations between the markets, as well as on, spillovers in mean returns and volatility. The mean return spillovers are examined on the basis of the bivariate VAR(1) model, whereas the bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model is employed for the analysis of the volatility spillovers. In order to analyze the spillover effects in different market conditions, the full sample period from 2000 to 2013 is divided into the pre-crisis period (2000–2006) and the crisis period (2007–2013). The results indicate an increasing interdependence especially within international stock markets during the periods of financial turbulence, and are thus consistent with the existing literature. Hence, bond and gold markets provide the best diversification benefits for equity investors, particularly during the periods of market turmoil.

Working Capital Management Model in value chains

The objective of this Master’s thesis is to create a calculation model for working capital management in value chains. The study has been executed using literature review and constructive research methods. Constructive research methods were mainly modeling. The theory in this thesis is founded in research articles and management literature. The model is developed for students and researchers. They can use the model for working capital management and comparing firms to each other. The model can also be used to cash management. The model tells who benefits and who suffers most in the value chain. Companies and value chains cash flows can be seen. By using the model can be seen are the set targets really achieved. The amount of operational working capital can be observed. The model enables user to simulate the amount of working capital. The created model is based on cash conversion cycle, return on investment and cash flow forecasting. The model is tested with carefully considered figures which seem to be though realistic. The modeled value chain is literally a chain. Implementing this model requires from the user that he/she have some kind of understanding about working capital management and some figures from balance sheet and income statement. By using this model users can improve their knowledge about working capital management in value chains.

Optiohinnoittelumallien empiirinen vertailu OMX 25 Helsinki -warranttimarkkinoilla

Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää pystytäänkö OMX 25 Helsinki kohde-etuusindeksin warranttien hintoja ennustamaan käyttämällä erilaisia optiohinnoittelumalleja. Tutkielman aineisto koostuu OMXH25-indeksiä seuraavien warranttien hinta-aikasarjatiedoista vuosilta 2009-2011. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin kolmea eri hinnoittelumallia warranttien hinnoitteluvirheiden tutkimiseen. Perinteistä Black-Scholes-hinnoittelumallia käytettiin siten, että warranttiaineistosta joh-dettu implisiittinen volatiliteetti regressoitiin maturiteetin ja toteutushinnan mu-kaan, jonka jälkeen regression perusteella valittiin kulloiseenkin tilanteeseen sopiva volatiliteettiestimaatti. Black-Scholes-mallin lisäksi tutkimuksessa käy-tettiin kahta GARCH-pohjaista optiohinnoittelumallia. Mallien estimoimia hin-toja verrattiin markkinoiden warranttihintoihin. Tulosten perusteella voitiin todeta, että mallit onnistuvat hinnoittelemaan war-rantteja paremmin lyhyen ajan päähän mallien kalibroinnista. Tulokset vaihte-livat suuresti eri vuosien välillä eikä minkään käytetyn mallin nähty suoriutu-van systemaattisesti muita malleja paremmin.