Security in uncertain times: policies for increasing the popularity of life annuities among retirees

Life annuities offer retirees an assured income stream for as long as they live. This makes it surprising that they are unpopular in most markets where their purchase is not compelled by government policy. With the numbers of retirees in the population set to increase dramatically, this low take-up rate of life annuities could exacerbate financial insecurity. Consequently, it is in society’s interest to implement non-coercive policies that increase annuitization levels. Although there is research that has focused on the possible causes of low annuitization rates, much of this research falls short of suggesting comprehensive strategies for persuading retirees to annuitize their savings.

Improved robust Kalman filtering for uncertain systems with missing measurements

In this paper, a novel robust finite-horizon Kalman filter is developed for discrete linear time-varying systems with missing measurements and normbounded parameter uncertainties. The missing measurements are modelled by a Bernoulli distributed sequence and the system parameter uncertainties are in the state and output matrices. A two stage recursive structure is considered for the Kalman filter and its parameters are determined guaranteeing that the covariances of the state estimation errorsare not more than the known upper bound. Finally, simulation results are presented to illustrate the outperformance of the proposed robust estimator compared with the previous results in the literature.

Effect Of Different Hydrological Model Structures On The Assimilation Of Distributed Uncertain Observations

The reliable evaluation of the flood forecasting is a crucial problem for assessing flood risk and consequent damages. Different hydrological models (distributed, semi-distributed or lumped) have been proposed in order to deal with this issue. The choice of the proper model structure has been investigated by many authors and it is one of the main sources of uncertainty for a correct evaluation of the outflow hydrograph. In addition, the recent increasing of data availability makes possible to update hydrological models as response of real-time observations. For these reasons, the aim of this work it is to evaluate the effect of different structure of a semi-distributed hydrological model in the assimilation of distributed uncertain discharge observations. The study was applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, located in Italy. The first methodological step was to divide the basin in different sub-basins according to topographic characteristics. Secondly, two different structures of the semi-distributed hydrological model were implemented in order to estimate the outflow hydrograph. Then, synthetic observations of uncertain value of discharge were generated, as a function of the observed and simulated value of flow at the basin outlet, and assimilated in the semi-distributed models using a Kalman Filter. Finally, different spatial patterns of sensors location were assumed to update the model state as response of the uncertain discharge observations. The results of this work pointed out that, overall, the assimilation of uncertain observations can improve the hydrologic model performance. In particular, it was found that the model structure is an important factor, of difficult characterization, since can induce different forecasts in terms of outflow discharge. This study is partly supported by the FP7 EU Project WeSenseIt.

Further investigation of the uncertain trend in U.S. GDP

The presence of deterministic or stochastic trend in U.S. GDP has been a continuing debate in the literature of macroeconomics. Ben-David and Papell (1995) found evindence in favor of trend stationarity using the secular sample of Maddison (1995). More recently, Murray and Nelson (2000) correctly criticized this nding arguing that the Maddison data are plagued with additive outliers (AO), which bias inference towards stationarity. Hence, they propose to set the secular sample aside and conduct inference using a more homogeneous but shorter time-span post-WWII sample. In this paper we re-visit the Maddison data by employing a test that is robust against AO s. Our results suggest the U.S. GDP can be modeled as a trend stationary process.

Affine processes, arbitrage-Free Term structures of legendre polynomials,and option pricing

Multivariate Affine term structure models have been increasingly used for pricing derivatives in fixed income markets. In these models, uncertainty of the term structure is driven by a state vector, while the short rate is an affine function of this vector. The model is characterized by a specific form for the stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the evolution of the state vector. This SDE presents restrictions on its drift term which rule out arbitrages in the market. In this paper we solve the following inverse problem: Suppose the term structure of interest rates is modeled by a linear combination of Legendre polynomials with random coefficients. Is there any SDE for these coefficients which rules out arbitrages? This problem is of particular empirical interest because the Legendre model is an example of factor model with clear interpretation for each factor, in which regards movements of the term structure. Moreover, the Affine structure of the Legendre model implies knowledge of its conditional characteristic function. From the econometric perspective, we propose arbitrage-free Legendre models to describe the evolution of the term structure. From the pricing perspective, we follow Duffie et al. (2000) in exploring Legendre conditional characteristic functions to obtain a computational tractable method to price fixed income derivatives. Closing the article, the empirical section presents precise evidence on the reward of implementing arbitrage-free parametric term structure models: The ability of obtaining a good approximation for the state vector by simply using cross sectional data.

Monotonicity and asymptotics of zeros of Sobolev type orthogonal polynomials: A general case

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On the zeros of polynomials: An extension of the Enestrom-Kakeya theorem

This paper presents an extension of the Enestrom-Kakeya theorem concerning the roots of a polynomial that arises from the analysis of the stability of Brown (K, L) methods. The generalization relates to relaxing one of the inequalities on the coefficients of the polynomial. Two results concerning the zeros of polynomials will be proved, one of them providing a partial answer to a conjecture by Meneguette (1994)[6]. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stabilizing controller design for uncertain nonlinear systems using fuzzy models

A Lyapunov-based stabilizing control design method for uncertain nonlinear dynamical systems using fuzzy models is proposed. The controller is constructed using a design model of the dynamical process to be controlled. The design model is obtained from the truth model using a fuzzy modeling approach. The truth model represents a detailed description of the process dynamics. The truth model is used in a simulation experiment to evaluate the performance of the controller design. A method for generating local models that constitute the design model is proposed. Sufficient conditions for stability and stabilizability of fuzzy models using fuzzy state-feedback controllers are given. The results obtained are illustrated with a numerical example involving a four-dimensional nonlinear model of a stick balancer.

Convexity of the extreme zeros of Gegenbauer and Laguerre polynomials

Let C-n(lambda)(x), n = 0, 1,..., lambda > -1/2, be the ultraspherical (Gegenbauer) polynomials, orthogonal. in (-1, 1) with respect to the weight function (1 - x(2))(lambda-1/2). Denote by X-nk(lambda), k = 1,....,n, the zeros of C-n(lambda)(x) enumerated in decreasing order. In this short note, we prove that, for any n is an element of N, the product (lambda + 1)(3/2)x(n1)(lambda) is a convex function of lambda if lambda greater than or equal to 0. The result is applied to obtain some inequalities for the largest zeros of C-n(lambda)(x). If X-nk(alpha), k = 1,...,n, are the zeros of Laguerre polynomial L-n(alpha)(x), also enumerated in decreasing order, we prove that x(n1)(lambda)/(alpha + 1) is a convex function of alpha for alpha > - 1. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier B.V. B.V.

Asymptotics of zeros of polynomials arising from rational integrals

We prove that the zeros of the polynomials P.. (a) of degree m, defined by Boros and Moll via[GRAPHICS]approach the lemmiscate {zeta epsilon C: \zeta(2) - 1\ = Hzeta < 0}, as m --> infinity. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Real orthogonal polynomials in frequency analysis

We study the use of para-orthogonal polynomials in solving the frequency analysis problem. Through a transformation of Delsarte and Genin, we present an approach for the frequency analysis by using the zeros and Christoffel numbers of polynomials orthogonal on the real line. This leads to a simple and fast algorithm for the estimation of frequencies. We also provide a new method, faster than the Levinson algorithm, for the determination of the reflection coefficients of the corresponding real Szego polynomials from the given moments.