Strategic argumentation: A game theoretical investigation

Argumentation is modelled as a game where the payoffs are measured in terms of the probability that the claimed conclusion is, or is not, defeasibly provable, given a history of arguments that have actually been exchanged, and given the probability of the factual premises. The probability of a conclusion is calculated using a standard variant of Defeasible Logic, in combination with standard probability calculus. It is a new element of the present approach that the exchange of arguments is analysed with game theoretical tools, yielding a prescriptive and to some extent even predictive account of the actual course of play. A brief comparison with existing argument-based dialogue approaches confirms that such a prescriptive account of the actual argumentation has been almost lacking in the approaches proposed so far.

Watkins and the Pragmatic Problem of Induction

Watkins proposes a neo-Popperian solution to the pragmatic problem of induction. He asserts that evidence can be used non-inductively to prefer the principle that corroboration is more successful over all human history than that, say, counter-corroboration is more successful either over this same period or in the future. Watkins's argument for rejecting the first counter-corroborationist alternative is beside the point. However, as whatever is the best strategy over all human history is irrelevant to the pragmatic problem of induction since we are not required to act in the past, and his argument for rejecting the second presupposes induction.

Beyond essentialism

This is a rather rough draft of a reworked version of my earlier paper on women in engineering. I am interested to hear how the new argument strikes you (rather than micro comment). You may post commented-on papers here or send them to me by email. If you want to post comments but don't want everyone to see your comments you can restrict access.

Work domain analysis for training-system definition and acquisition

Training-needs analysis is critical for defining and procuring effective training systems. However, traditional approaches to training-needs analysis are not suitable for capturing the demands of highly automated and computerized work domains. In this article, we propose that work domain analysis can identify the functional structure of a work domain that must be captured in a training system, so that workers can be trained to deal with unpredictable contingencies that cannot be handled by computer systems. To illustrate this argument, we outline a work domain analysis of a fighter aircraft that defines its functional structure in terms of its training objectives, measures of performance, basic training functions, physical functionality, and physical context. The functional structure or training needs identified by work domain analysis can then be used as a basis for developing functional specifications for training systems, specifically its design objectives, data collection capabilities, scenario generation capabilities, physical functionality, and physical attributes. Finally, work domain analysis also provides a useful framework for evaluating whether a tendered solution fulfills the training needs of a work domain.

Activation of the human diaphragm during a repetitive postural task

1. The co-ordination between respiratory and postural functions of the diaphragm was investigated during repetitive upper Limb movement. It was hypothesised that diaphragm activity would occur either tonically or phasically in association with the forces from each movement and that this activity would combine with phasic respiratory activity. 2. Movements of the upper limb and ribcage were measured while standing subjects performed repetitive upper limb movements 'as fast as possible'. Electromyographic (EMG) recordings of the costal diaphragm were made using intramuscular electrodes in four subjects. Surface electrodes were placed over the deltoid and erector spinae muscles. 3. In contrast to standing at rest, diaphragm activity was present throughout expiration at 78 +/- 17% (mean +/- S.D.) of its peak inspiratory magnitude during repeated upper limb movement. 4. Bursts of deltoid and erector spinae EMG activity occurred at the Limb movement frequency (similar to 2.9 Hz). Although the majority of diaphragm EMG power was at the respiratory frequency (similar to 0.4 Hz), a peak was also present at the movement frequency. This finding was corroborated by averaged EMG activity triggered from upper limb movement. In addition, diaphragm EMG activity was coherent with ribcage motion at the respiratory frequency and with upper limb movement at the movement frequency. 5. The diaphragm response was similar when movement was performed while sitting. In addition, when subjects moved with increasing frequency the peak upper limb acceleration correlated with diaphragm EMG amplitude. These findings support the argument that diaphragm contraction is related to trunk control. 6. The results indicate that activity of human phrenic motoneurones is organised such that it contributes to both posture and respiration during a task which repetitively challenges trunk posture.

Male Teachers in Feminised Teaching Areas: marching to the beat of the men's movement drums?

Calls for more male teachers are prevalent in current gender debates in education. A dominant argument in this debate is that boys are often alienated from school because of a lack of male role models in feminised areas of the school curriculum and in primary schools. Little research has investigated male teachers' accounts of their work within feminised environments. Drawing on data collected in two research studies in music education, this paper focuses on accounts given by male teachers about (a) practices adopted specifically to work with boys and (b) the role of the male music teacher. Analysis of these data suggests that some male teachers working in feminised areas of the school curriculum adopt practices which, rather than challenging dominant constructions of masculinity, sometimes reinforce gender stereotypical behaviours in boys. We argue that calls for increasing the number of male teachers in feminised areas of schooling need also to be informed by open discussion of the underlying assumptions about masculinity which teachers themselves bring to their work.

Associations between rural background and where South Australian general practitioners work

Objective: To determine the association between rural background on practice location of general practitioners (GPs) (rural or urban). Design: Comparison of data from two postal surveys. Subjects: 268 rural and 236 urban GPs practising in South Australia. Main outcome measures: Association between practice location (rural or urban) and demographic characteristics, training, qualifications, and rural background. Results: Rural GPs were younger than urban GPs (mean age 47 versus 50 years, P<0,01) and more likely to be male (81% versus 67%, P=0.001), to be Australian-born (72% Versus 61%, P=0,01), to have a partner (95% versus 85%, P= 0.001), and to have children (94% Versus 85%, P=0.001). Similar proportions of rural and urban GPs were trained in Australia and were Fellows of the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, but more rural GPs were vocationally registered (94% versus 84%, P=0,001). Rural GPs were more likely to have grown up in the country (37% versus 27%, P= 0,02), to have received primary (33% versus 19%, P=0,001) and secondary (25% versus 13%, P=0,001) education there, and to have a partner who grew up in the country (49% Versus 24%, P=0.001). In multivariate analysis, only primary education in the country (odds ratio [OR], 2.43; 95% CI, 1.09-5.56) and partner of rural background (OR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.96-5.10) were independently associated with rural practice. Conclusion: Our findings support the policy of promoting entry to medical school of students with a rural background and provide an argument for policies that address the needs of partners and maintain quality primary and secondary education in the country.

Initial results of ultrasound screening for aneurysm of the abdominal aorta in Western Australia: relevance for endoluminal treatment of aneurysm disease

Background. Increased life expectancy in men during the last thirty years is largely due to the decrease in mortality from cardiovascular disease in the age group 29-69 yr. This change has resulted in a change in the disease profile of the population with conditions such as aneurysm of the abdominal aorta (AAA) becoming more prevalent. The advent of endoluminal treatment for AAA has encouraged prophylactic intervention and fuelled the argument to screen for the disease. The feasibility of inserting an endoluminal graft is dependent on the morphology and growth characteristics of the aneurysm. This study used data from a randomized controlled trial of ultrasound screening for AAA in men aged 65-83 yr in Western Australia for the purpose of determining the norms of the living anatomy in the pressurized infrarenal aorta. Aims. To examine (1) the diameters of the infra-renal aorta in aneurysmal and non-aneurysmal cases, (2) the implications for treatment modalities, with particular reference to endoluminal grafting, which is most dependent on normal and aneurysmal morphology, and (3) any evidence to support the notion that northern Europeans are predisposed to aneurysmal disease. Methods. Using ultrasound, a randomized control trial was established in Western Australia to assess the value of a screening program in males aged 65-83 yr, The infra-renal aorta was defined as aneurysmal if the maximum diameter was 30 mm or more. Aortic diameter was modelled both as a continuous tin mm) and as a binary outcome variable, for those men who had an infra-renal diameter of 30 mm or more. ANOVA and linear regression were used for modelling aortic diameter as a continuum, while chi-square analysis and logistic regression were used in comparing men with and without the diagnosis of AAA. Findings. By December 1998, of 19.583 men had been invited to undergo ultrasound screening for AAA, 12.203 accepted the invitation (corrected response fraction 70.8%). The prevalence of AAA increased with age from 4.8% at 65 yr to 10.8% at 80 yr (chi (2) = 77.9, df = 3, P<0.001). The median (IQR) diameter for the non-aneurysmal group was 21.4 mm (3.3 mm) and there was an increase (<chi>(2) = 76.0, df = 1, P<0.001) in the diameter of the infra-renal aorta with age. Since 27 mm is the 95th centile for the non-aneurysmal infra-renal aorta, a diameter of 30 mm or more is justified as defining an aneurysm. The risk of AAA was higher in men of Australian (OR = 1.0) and northern European origin (OR = 1.0, 95%CL: 0.9. 1.2) compared with those of Mediterranean origin (OR = 0.5, 99%CL: 0.4, 0.7). Conclusion. Although screening has not yet been shown to reduce mortality from AAA. these population-based data assist the understanding of aneurysmal disease and the further development and use of endoluminal grafts for this condition. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The International Society for Cardiovascular Surgery.

Causal loops and the independence of causal facts

According to Hugh Mellor in Real Time II (1998, Ch. 12), assuming the logical independence of causal facts and the 'law of large numbers', causal loops are impossible because if they were possible they would produce inconsistent sets of frequencies. I clarify the argument, and argue that it would be preferable to abandon the relevant independence assumption in the case of causal loops.

The coincidences of time travel

In this paper I consider two objections raised by Nick Smith (1997) to an argument against the probability of time travel given by Paul Horwich (1995, 1987). Horwich argues that time travel leads to inexplicable and improbable coincidences. I argue that one of Smith's objections fails, but that another is correct. I also consider an instructive way to defend Horwich's argument against the second of Smith's objections, but show that it too fails. I conclude that unless there is something faulty in the conception of explanation implicit in Horwich's argument, time travel presents us with nothing that is inexplicable.

Expectation Propagation with Factorizing Distributions: A Gaussian Approximation and Performance Results for Simple Models

We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.

What Brazilian Portuguese Says about Control: Remarks on Boeckx & Hornstein

In an article in this journal, Boeckx & Hornstein (2006a) present data from Brazilian Portuguese (BP) as an argument in favor of the Movement Theory of Control (MTC). In this reply, I show that the data presented by those authors do not necessarily argue for a movement analysis of BP finite subjects nor of nonfinite control. I also show that BP provides arguments against the MTC when inflected infinitives are considered. Inflected infinitives may be used in BP in partial control structures, which makes it explicit that a singular matrix argument may control a syntactically plural null subject and shows that these two positions cannot be related by movement. Additionally, I show that the MTC makes the wrong predictions when a language with inflected infinitives is considered.

Waves of Change Within Civil Society in Latin America: Mexico City and Sao Paulo

For the past half a century, Latin American scholars have been pointing toward the emergence of new social actors as agents of social and political democratization. The first wave of actors was characterized by the emergence of novel agents-mainly, new popular movements-of social transformation. At first, the second wave, epitomized by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), was celebrated as the upsurge of a new civil society, but later on, it was the target of harsh criticism. The literature often portrays this development in Latin American civil society as a displacement trend of actors of the first wave by the second wave-""NGOization""-""and even denounces new civil society as rootless, depoliticized, and functional to retrenchment. Thus, supposedly, NGOization encumbers social change. The authors argue that NGOization diagnosis is a flawed depiction of change within civil society. Rather than NGOization related to the depoliticization and neoliberalization of civil society, in Mexico City and Sao Paulo, there has been modernization of organizational ecologies, changes in the functional status of civil society, and interestingly, specialization aimed at shaping public agenda. The authors argue that such specialization, instead of encumbering social change, brings about different repertoires of strategies and skills purposively developed for influencing policy and politics. Their argument relies on comparative systematic evidence. Through network analysis, they examine the organizational ecology of civil society in Mexico City and Sao Paulo.

Globalizing policy sociology in education: Working with Bourdieu

This paper uses Bourdieu to develop theorizing about policy processes in education and to extend the policy cycle approach in a time of globalization. Use is made of Bourdieu's concept of social field and the argument is sustained that in the context of globalization the field of educational policy has reduced autonomy, with enhanced cross-field effects in educational policy production, particularly from the fields of the economy and journalism. Given the social rather than geographical character of Bourdieu's concept of social fields, it is also argued that the concept can be, and indeed has to be, stretched beyond the nation to take account of the emergent global policy field in education. Utilizing Bourdieu's late work on the globalization of the economy through neo-liberal politics, we argue that a non-reified account of the emergent global educational policy field can be provided.

Locke, on freedom and will

This article aims to discuss Locke`s compatibilism, that is, the lokean thesis that freedom is compatible with the natural necessity. To this end, it is analized the chapter Of The Power (XXI, book II of the An Essay concerning Human Understanding), in which Locke clarifies the concepts of freedom and will. Although Locke, at times, involves himself with the incongruent thesis on compatibilism, he is a compatibilist. The impression that Locke would defend incompatibilists` theories ends up being abandoned when we analyze carefully his general argument about will and freedom. Locke literally defends that the volunteer does not differ from the necessary. As a compatibilist, Locke maintains that will is not free. Thus, the free man can not be the one that is free to want. A man regarded as a free agent is the one that has freedom of action, not freedom of will.