Survival analysis of time-to-event data in respiratory health research studies

This article provides a review of techniques for the analysis of survival data arising from respiratory health studies. Popular techniques such as the Kaplan–Meier survival plot and the Cox proportional hazards model are presented and illustrated using data from a lung cancer study. Advanced issues are also discussed, including parametric proportional hazards models, accelerated failure time models, time-varying explanatory variables, simultaneous analysis of multiple types of outcome events and the restricted mean survival time, a novel measure of the effect of treatment.

A boat hitchhiker's guide to survival: Cabomba caroliniana desiccation resistance and survival ability

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed macrophyte that has become a serious invader. Cabomba predominantly spreads by stem fragments, in particular through unintentional transport on boat trailers ('hitch hiking'). Desiccation resistance affects the potential dispersal radius. Therefore, knowledge of maximum survival times allows predicting future dispersal. Experiments were conducted to assess desiccation resistance and survival ability of cabomba fragments under various environmental scenarios. Cabomba fragments were highly tolerant of desiccation. However, even relatively low wind speeds resulted in rapid mass loss, indicating a low survival rate of fragments exposed to air currents, such as fragments transported on a boat trailer. The experiments indicated that cabomba could survive at least 3 h of overland transport if exposed to wind. However, even small clumps of cabomba could potentially survive up to 42 h. Thus, targeting the transport of clumps of macrophytes should receive high priority in management. The high resilience of cabomba to desiccation demonstrates the risk of continuing spread. Because of the high probability of fragment viability on arrival, preventing fragment uptake on boat trailers is paramount to reduce the risk of further spread. These findings will assist improving models that predict the spread of aquatic invasive macrophytes.

Effects of age, length, and pattern of burial on survival of Mikania micrantha stem sections

For many landholders in the South Pacific, weed control of Mikania micrantha Kunth is conducted by manual or mechanical means, leaving fragments on or below the ground to reshoot and grow. Effects of age, length (number of nodes), and pattern of burial on the survival of stem sections of M. micrantha were examined in the field in Viti Levu, Fiji. The experiment was arranged in a randomized factorial design, with number of nodes, age of stem sections, and pattern (depth and orientation) of stem burial as factors. Stem sections with two or three nodes had significantly greater survival (30% and 25%, respectively) than those with one node (12%). Mature stem sections had a significantly greater survival rate (31%) than young stem sections (13%) when buried in either the horizontal or the vertical position. Vertical plantings had significantly greater survival (43%) than horizontal plantings (10%), and for both orientations survival decreased with depth of burial. Only 8% of stem sections survived when cut into smaller (3 to 5 cm) sections and buried at a depth of 10 cm. This study revealed that cutting the M. micrantha stems into smaller sections (<3 cm) and burying them at depths of 10 cm or greater would improve the overall management of M. micrantha in crop and noncrop systems.

Survival of Hendra Virus in the Environment: Modelling the Effect of Temperature

Hendra virus (HeV), a highly pathogenic zoonotic paramyxovirus recently emerged from bats, is a major concern to the horse industry in Australia. Previous research has shown that higher temperatures led to lower virus survival rates in the laboratory. We develop a model of survival of HeV in the environment as influenced by temperature. We used 20 years of daily temperature at six locations spanning the geographic range of reported HeV incidents to simulate the temporal and spatial impacts of temperature on HeV survival. At any location, simulated virus survival was greater in winter than in summer, and in any month of the year, survival was higher in higher latitudes. At any location, year-to-year variation in virus survival 24 h post-excretion was substantial and was as large as the difference between locations. Survival was higher in microhabitats with lower than ambient temperature, and when environmental exposure was shorter. The within-year pattern of virus survival mirrored the cumulative within-year occurrence of reported HeV cases, although there were no overall differences in survival in HeV case years and non-case years. The model examines the effect of temperature in isolation; actual virus survivability will reflect the effect of additional environmental factors

A boat hitchhiker’s guide to survival: Cabomba caroliniana desiccation resistance and survival ability

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed macrophyte that has become a serious invader. Cabomba predominantly spreads by stem fragments, in particular through unintentional transport on boat trailers (‘hitch hiking’). Desiccation resistance affects the potential dispersal radius. Therefore, knowledge of maximum survival times allows predicting future dispersal. Experiments were conducted to assess desiccation resistance and survival ability of cabomba fragments under various environmental scenarios. Cabomba fragments were highly tolerant of desiccation. However, even relatively low wind speeds resulted in rapid mass loss, indicating a low survival rate of fragments exposed to air currents, such as fragments transported on a boat trailer. The experiments indicated that cabomba could survive at least 3 h of overland transport if exposed to wind. However, even small clumps of cabomba could potentially survive up to 42 h. Thus, targeting the transport of clumps of macrophytes should receive high priority in management. The high resilience of cabomba to desiccation demonstrates the risk of continuing spread. Because of the high probability of fragment viability on arrival, preventing fragment uptake on boat trailers is paramount to reduce the risk of further spread. These findings will assist improving models that predict the spread of aquatic invasive macrophytes.

Short-term survival of discarded pearl perch (Glaucosoma scapulare Ramsay, 1881) caught by hook-and-line in Queensland, Australia

Post-release survival of line-caught pearl perch (Glaucosoma scapulare) was assessed via field experiments where fish were angled using methods similar to those used by commercial, recreational and charter fishers. One hundred and eighty-three individuals were caught during four experiments, of which >91 survived up to three days post-capture. Hook location was found to be the best predictor of survival, with the survival of throat- or stomach-hooked pearl perch significantly (P < 0.05) lower than those hooked in either the mouth or lip. Post-release survival was similar for both legal (≥35 cm) and sub-legal (<35 cm) pearl perch, while those individuals showing no signs of barotrauma were more likely to survive in the short term. Examination of the swim bladders in the laboratory, combined with observations in the field, revealed that swim bladders rupture during ascent from depth allowing swim bladder gases to escape into the gut cavity. As angled fish approach the surface, the alimentary tract ruptures near the anus allowing swim bladder gases to escape the gut cavity. As a result, very few pearl perch exhibit barotrauma symptoms and no barotrauma mitigation strategies were recommended. The results of this study show that pearl perch are relatively resilient to catch-and-release suggesting that post-release mortality would not contribute significantly to total fishing mortality. We recommend the use of circle hooks, fished actively on tight lines, combined with minimal handling in order to maximise the post-release survival of pearl perch.

The growth, reproduction and survival of 'Cascabela thevetia' seedlings under two levels of canopy cover

The ornamental tree 'Cascabela thevetia', from tropical America, has naturalised and formed large infestations at several locations in northern Australia. Some understanding of its ecology and invasiveness was gleaned from a field experiment undertaken in North Queensland. The experiment quantified the growth, time to seed formation and survival of seedlings of the peach biotype growing under light and dense canopy cover within a riparian habitat. Growth, reproduction and survival of young plants varied. Growth was most rapid for seedlings away from, or on the edge of infestations because they were constrained by parent plants. The findings also suggested that land managers have at least 12 months following control to detect new plants, or regrowth, before plants set seed and replenish soil seed banks.

Co-Signaling by Neurotrophic Factors and the Extracellular Matrix for Axonal Growth and Neuronal Survival

Neurotrophic factors (NTFs) and the extracellular matrix (ECM) are important regulators of axonal growth and neuronal survival in mammalian nervous system. Understanding of the mechanisms of this regulation is crucial for the development of posttraumatic therapies and drug intervention in the injured nervous system. NTFs act as soluble, target-derived extracellular regulatory molecules for a wide range of physiological functions including axonal guidance and the regulation of programmed cell death in the nervous system. The ECM determines cell adhesion and regulates multiple physiological functions via short range cell-matrix interactions. The present work focuses on the mechanisms of the action of NTFs and the ECM on axonal growth and survival of cultured sensory neurons from dorsal root ganglia (DRG). We first examined signaling mechanisms of the action of the glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) family ligands (GFLs) on axonal growth. GDNF, neurturin (NRTN) and artemin (ART) but not persephin (PSPN) promoted axonal initiation in cultured DRG neurons from young adult mice. This effect required Src family kinase (SFK) activity. In neurons from GFRalpha2-deficient mice, NRTN did not significantly promote axonal initiation. GDNF and NRTN induced extensive lamellipodia formation on neuronal somata and growth cones. This study suggested that GDNF, NRTN and ARTN may serve as stimulators of nerve regeneration under posttraumatic conditions. Consequently we studied the convergence of signaling pathways induced by NTFs and the ECM molecule laminin in the intracellular signaling network that regulates axonal growth. We demonstrated that co-stimulation of DRG neurons with NTFs (GDNF, NRTN or nerve growth factor (NGF)) and laminin leads to axonal growth that requires activation of SFKs. A different, SFK-independent signaling pathway evoked axonal growth on laminin in the absence of the NTFs. In contrast, axonal branching was regulated by SFKs both in the presence and in the absence of NGF. We proposed and experimentally verified a Boolean model of the signaling network triggered by NTFs and laminin. Our results put forward an approach for predictable, Boolean logics-driven pharmacological manipulation of a complex signaling network. Finally we found that N-syndecan, the receptor for the ECM component HB-GAM was required for the survival of neonatal sensory neurons in vitro. We demonstrated massive cell death of cultured DRG neurons from mice deficient in the N-syndecan gene as compared to wild type controls. Importantly, this cell death could not be prevented by NGF the neurotrophin which activates multiple anti-apoptotic cascades in DRG neurons. The survival deficit was observed during first postnatal week. By contrast, DRG neurons from young adult N-syndecan knock-out mice exhibited normal survival. This study identifies a completely new syndecan-dependent type of signaling that regulates cell death in neurons.

A lower bound to the survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution for Markovian and non-Markovian dynamics in phase space

We derive a very general expression of the survival probability and the first passage time distribution for a particle executing Brownian motion in full phase space with an absorbing boundary condition at a point in the position space, which is valid irrespective of the statistical nature of the dynamics. The expression, together with the Jensen's inequality, naturally leads to a lower bound to the actual survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution. These are expressed in terms of the position-position, velocity-velocity, and position-velocity variances. Knowledge of these variances enables one to compute a lower bound to the survival probability and consequently the first passage distribution function. As examples, we compute these for a Gaussian Markovian process and, in the case of non-Markovian process, with an exponentially decaying friction kernel and also with a power law friction kernel. Our analysis shows that the survival probability decays exponentially at the long time irrespective of the nature of the dynamics with an exponent equal to the transition state rate constant.