A cautionary note on the use of Ornstein Uhlenbeck models in macroevolutionary studies

Phylogenetic comparative methods are increasingly used to give new insights into the dynamics of trait evolution in deep time. For continuous traits the core of these methods is a suite of models that attempt to capture evolutionary patterns by extending the Brownian constant variance model. However, the properties of these models are often poorly understood, which can lead to the misinterpretation of results. Here we focus on one of these models – the Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) model. We show that the OU model is frequently incorrectly favoured over simpler models when using Likelihood ratio tests, and that many studies fitting this model use datasets that are small and prone to this problem. We also show that very small amounts of error in datasets can have profound effects on the inferences derived from OU models. Our results suggest that simulating fitted models and comparing with empirical results is critical when fitting OU and other extensions of the Brownian model. We conclude by making recommendations for best practice in fitting OU models in phylogenetic comparative analyses, and for interpreting the parameters of the OU model.

Underreporting of Energy Intake in Brazilian Women Varies According to Dietary Assessment: A Cross-Sectional Study Using Doubly Labeled Water

Objective Underreporting of energy intake is prevalent in food surveys, but there is controversy about which dietary assessment method provides greater underreporting rates. Our objective is to compare validity of self-reported energy intake obtained by three dietary assessment methods with total energy expenditure (TEE) obtained by doubly labeled water (DLW) among Brazilian women. Design We used a cross-sectional study. Subjects/setting Sixty-five females aged 18 to 57 years (28 normal-weight, 10 over-weight, and 27 obese) were recruited from two universities to participate. Main outcome measures TEE determined by DLW, energy intake estimated by three 24-hour recalls, 3-day food record, and a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Statistical analyses performed Regression and analysis of variance with repeated measures compared TEE and energy intake values, and energy intake-to-TEE ratios and energy intake-TEE values between dietary assessment methods. Bland and Altman plots were provided for each method. chi(2) test compared proportion of underreporters between the methods. Results Mean TEE was 2,622 kcal (standard deviation [SD] =490 kcal), while mean energy intake was 2,078 kcal (SD=430 kcal) for the diet recalls; 2,044 kcal (SD=479 kcal) for the food record and 1,984 kcal (SD=832 kcal) for the FFQ (all energy intake values significantly differed from TEE; P<0.0001). Bland and Altman plots indicated great dispersion, negative mean differences between measurements, and wide limits of agreement. Obese subjects underreported more than normal-weight subjects in the diet recalls and in the food records, but not in the FFQ. Years of education, income and ethnicity were associated with reporting accuracy. Conclusions The FFQ produced greater under- and overestimation of energy intake. Underreporting of energy intake is a serious and prevalent error in dietary self-reports provided by Brazilian women, as has been described in studies conducted in developed countries.

Bayesian analysis for a skew extension of the multivariate null intercept measurement error model

Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leao Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in -variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763-771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161-178].

Application of ionospheric corrections in the equatorial region for L1 GPS users

In the absence of the selective availability, which was turned off on May 1, 2000, the ionosphere can be the largest source of error in GPS positioning and navigation. Its effects on GPS observable cause a code delays and phase advances. The magnitude of this error is affected by the local time of the day, season, solar cycle, geographical location of the receiver and Earth's magnetic field. As it is well known, the ionosphere is the main drawback for high accuracy positioning, when using single frequency receivers, either for point positioning or relative positioning of medium and long baselines. The ionosphere effects were investigated in the determination of point positioning and relative positioning using single frequency data. A model represented by a Fourier series type was implemented and the parameters were estimated from data collected at the active stations of RBMC (Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of GPS satellites). The data input were the pseudorange observables filtered by the carrier phase. Quality control was implemented in order to analyse the adjustment and to validate the significance of the estimated parameters. Experiments were carried out in the equatorial region, using data collected from dual frequency receivers. In order to validate the model, the estimated values were compared with ground truth. For point and relative positioning of baselines of approximately 100 km, the values of the discrepancies indicated an error reduction better than 80% and 50% respectively, compared to the processing without the ionospheric model. These results give an indication that more research has to be done in order to provide support to the L1 GPS users in the Equatorial region.

Prevalence of Refractive Errors in a Brazilian Population: The Botucatu Eye Study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Autopsy: quality assurance in the ICU

Objective: To examine the correlation between the clinical diagnosis and autopsy findings in adult patients who died in an intensive care unit (ICU). To determine the rate of agreement of the basic and terminal causes of death and the types of errors in order to improve quality control of future care,Design, Retrospective study.Setting: Adult ICU in a university hospital.Patients: 30 adult patients who died in the ICU. with the exclusion of medicolegal cases.Methods and main results: Anatomo-clinical meetings were held to analyze the pre- and postmortem correlations in 30 consecutive autopsies at the ICU of the University Hospital, School of Medicine of Botucatu/ UNESP, from January 1994 to January 1997. The rate of correct clinical diagnoses of the basic cause was 66.7 %; in 23.3 % of cases, if the correct diagnosis was made, management would have been different, as would have been the evolution of the patient's course (Class I error): in 10 % of the cases the error would not have led to a change in management (Class II error). The rate of correct clinical diagnoses of terminal cause was 80 %.Conclusions: the rate of recognition of the basic cause was 66.7 %, which is consistent with the literature, but the Class I error rate was higher than that reported in the literature.

The center of the incisive papilla for the selection of complete denture maxillary anterior teeth in 4 racial groups

Objectives: To evaluate the use of the center of the incisive papilla as a guide for the selection of the proper width of maxillary dentures in 4 racial groups. Method and Materials: One hundred sixty stone casts were obtained from impressions of the maxillary arch of white, black, mixed, and Asian subjects. The occlusal surfaces of the casts were photocopied and the images placed on a digitizer. The most anterior and posterior points of the papilla and cusp tips of the canines were digitized. Dentofacial Planner Plus software was used to calculate the distance from a line passing through the cusp tips of the canines to the center of the papilla, defined as the midpoint of the anterior and posterior points of the papilla. The selection error (in millimeters) due to the clinical application of the method of the incisive papilla was calculated and analyzed. Results: In all studied racial groups, there was no coincidence between the center of the incisive papilla and the canine line. The utilization of the center of the papilla would lead to the selection of wider artificial teeth. In 24.9% of the white, 19.3% of the mixed, 32.9% of the black, and 15.5% of the Asian populations, errors greater than 4 mm would be present with the utilization of the papilla. Conclusion: The method of the center of the incisive papilla is not accurate, but may aid in initial artificial teeth selection for the racial groups studied. (Quintessence Int 2008;39:841-845)

Vitrificação e congelamento de mórulas e blastocistos produzidos in vitro em Bos taurus e Bos indicus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation via multivariate techniques of scale factor variability in the rietveld method applied to quantitative phase analysis with X ray powder diffraction

ABSTRACT: The present work uses multivariate statistical analysis as a form of establishing the main sources of error in the Quantitative Phase Analysis (QPA) using the Rietveld method. The quantitative determination of crystalline phases using x ray powder diffraction is a complex measurement process whose results are influenced by several factors. Ternary mixtures of Al2O3, MgO and NiO were prepared under controlled conditions and the diffractions were obtained using the Bragg-Brentano geometric arrangement. It was possible to establish four sources of critical variations: the experimental absorption and the scale factor of NiO, which is the phase with the greatest linear absorption coefficient of the ternary mixture; the instrumental characteristics represented by mechanical errors of the goniometer and sample displacement; the other two phases (Al2O3 and MgO); and the temperature and relative humidity of the air in the laboratory. The error sources excessively impair the QPA with the Rietveld method. Therefore it becomes necessary to control them during the measurement procedure.

Refractive errors in a Brazilian population: age and sex distribution

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Development of a new clean methodology with ultrasound-assisted extraction for analysis of sodium in pet foods

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Whaling error

You published recently (Nature 374, 587; 1995) a report headed "Error re-opens 'scientific' whaling debate". The error in question, however, relates to commercial whaling, not to scientific whaling. Although Norway cites science as a basis for the way in which it sets its own quota. scientific whaling means something quite different. namely killing whales for research purposes. Any member of the International Whaling Commission (IWC) has the right to conduct a research catch under the International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling. 1946. The IWC has reviewed new research or scientific whaling programs for Japan and Norway since the IWC moratorium on commercial whaling began in 1986. In every case, the IWC advised Japan and Norway to reconsider the lethal aspects of their research programs. Last year, however, Norway started a commercial hunt in combination with its scientific catch, despite the IWC moratorium.

The Endothelial Sample Size Analysis in Corneal Specular Microscopy Clinical Examinations

Purpose: To evaluate endothelial cell sample size and statistical error in corneal specular microscopy (CSM) examinations. Methods: One hundred twenty examinations were conducted with 4 types of corneal specular microscopes: 30 with each BioOptics, CSO, Konan, and Topcon corneal specular microscopes. All endothelial image data were analyzed by respective instrument software and also by the Cells Analyzer software with a method developed in our lab(US Patent). A reliability degree (RD) of 95% and a relative error (RE) of 0.05 were used as cut-off values to analyze images of the counted endothelial cells called samples. The sample size mean was the number of cells evaluated on the images obtained with each device. Only examinations with RE<0.05 were considered statistically correct and suitable for comparisons with future examinations. The Cells Analyzer software was used to calculate the RE and customized sample size for all examinations. Results: Bio-Optics: sample size, 97 +/- 22 cells; RE, 6.52 +/- 0.86; only 10% of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE<0.05); customized sample size, 162 +/- 34 cells. CSO: sample size, 110 +/- 20 cells; RE, 5.98 +/- 0.98; only 16.6% of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE<0.05); customized sample size, 157 +/- 45 cells. Konan: sample size, 80 +/- 27 cells; RE, 10.6 +/- 3.67; none of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE>0.05); customized sample size, 336 +/- 131 cells. Topcon: sample size, 87 +/- 17 cells; RE, 10.1 +/- 2.52; none of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE>0.05); customized sample size, 382 +/- 159 cells. Conclusions: A very high number of CSM examinations had sample errors based on Cells Analyzer software. The endothelial sample size (examinations) needs to include more cells to be reliable and reproducible. The Cells Analyzer tutorial routine will be useful for CSM examination reliability and reproducibility.

Visual scanning in sports actions: comparison between soccer goalkeepers and judo fighters

Visual search and oculomotor behaviour are believed to be very relevant for athlete performance, especially for sports requiring refined visuo-motor coordination skills. Modern coaches believe that a correct visuo-motor strategy may be part of advanced training programs. In this thesis two experiments are reported in which gaze behaviour of expert and novice athletes were investigated while they were doing a real sport specific task. The experiments concern two different sports: judo and soccer. In each experiment, number of fixations, fixation locations and mean fixation duration (ms) were considered. An observational analysis was done at the end of the paper to see perceptual differences between near and far space. Purpose: The aim of the judo study was to delineate differences in gaze behaviour characteristics between a population of athletes and one of non athletes. Aspects specifically investigated were: search rate, search order and viewing time across different conditions in a real-world task. The second study was aimed at identifying gaze behaviour in varsity soccer goalkeepers while facing a penalty kick executed with instep and inside foot. Then an attempt has been done to compare the gaze strategies of expert judoka and soccer goalkeepers in order to delineate possible differences related to the different conditions of reacting to events occurring in near (peripersonal) or far (extrapersonal) space. Judo Methods: A sample of 9 judoka (black belt) and 11 near judoka (white belt) were studied. Eye movements were recorded at 500Hz using a video based eye tracker (EyeLink II). Each subject participated in 40 sessions for about 40 minutes. Gaze behaviour was considered as average number of locations fixated per trial, the average number of fixations per trial, and mean fixation duration. Soccer Methods: Seven (n = 7) intermediate level male volunteered for the experiment. The kickers and goalkeepers, had at least varsity level soccer experience. The vision-in-action (VIA) system (Vickers 1996; Vickers 2007) was used to collect the coupled gaze and motor behaviours of the goalkeepers. This system integrated input from a mobile eye tracking system (Applied Sciences Laboratories) with an external video of the goalkeeper’s saving actions. The goalkeepers took 30 penalty kicks on a synthetic pitch in accordance with FIFA (2008) laws. Judo Results: Results indicate that experts group differed significantly from near expert for fixations duration, and number of fixations per trial. The expert judokas used a less exhaustive search strategy involving fewer fixations of longer duration than their novice counterparts and focused on central regions of the body. The results showed that in defence and attack situation expert group did a greater number of transitions with respect to their novice counterpart. Soccer Results: We found significant main effect for the number of locations fixated across outcome (goal/save) but not for foot contact (instep/inside). Participants spent more time fixating the areas in instep than inside kick and in goal than in save situation. Mean and standard error in search strategy as a result of foot contact and outcome indicate that the most gaze behaviour start and finish on ball interest areas. Conclusions: Expert goalkeepers tend to spend more time in inside-save than instep-save penalty, differences that was opposite in scored penalty kick. Judo results show that differences in visual behaviour related to the level of expertise appear mainly when the test presentation is continuous, last for a relatively long period of time and present a high level of uncertainty with regard to the chronology and the nature of events. Expert judoist performers “anchor” the fovea on central regions of the scene (lapel and face) while using peripheral vision to monitor opponents’ limb movements. The differences between judo and soccer gaze strategies are discussed on the light of physiological and neuropsychological differences between near and far space perception.

Mixed finite-element methods for elliptic convection-dominated problems arising in semiconductor physics

In this work we develop and analyze an adaptive numerical scheme for simulating a class of macroscopic semiconductor models. At first the numerical modelling of semiconductors is reviewed in order to classify the Energy-Transport models for semiconductors that are later simulated in 2D. In this class of models the flow of charged particles, that are negatively charged electrons and so-called holes, which are quasi-particles of positive charge, as well as their energy distributions are described by a coupled system of nonlinear partial differential equations. A considerable difficulty in simulating these convection-dominated equations is posed by the nonlinear coupling as well as due to the fact that the local phenomena such as "hot electron effects" are only partially assessable through the given data. The primary variables that are used in the simulations are the particle density and the particle energy density. The user of these simulations is mostly interested in the current flow through parts of the domain boundary - the contacts. The numerical method considered here utilizes mixed finite-elements as trial functions for the discrete solution. The continuous discretization of the normal fluxes is the most important property of this discretization from the users perspective. It will be proven that under certain assumptions on the triangulation the particle density remains positive in the iterative solution algorithm. Connected to this result an a priori error estimate for the discrete solution of linear convection-diffusion equations is derived. The local charge transport phenomena will be resolved by an adaptive algorithm, which is based on a posteriori error estimators. At that stage a comparison of different estimations is performed. Additionally a method to effectively estimate the error in local quantities derived from the solution, so-called "functional outputs", is developed by transferring the dual weighted residual method to mixed finite elements. For a model problem we present how this method can deliver promising results even when standard error estimator fail completely to reduce the error in an iterative mesh refinement process.