Canada as a Potential Vacation Destination for Florida Residents

Canada expends a large amount of money on tourism and advertising in the U.S., but growth has not kept up. The author surveys Floridians as to their attitudes toward Canada as a tourism destination.

Online Pricing Practice for Hotel Room Rates in China: The Case of Shanghai

Travel websites that enable hotel room reservations have created unprecedented business opportunities. However, they have also overloaded hotel customers with information. This situation is particularly true of China, an emerging country with the largest population in the world and the most promising growth prospect in tourism. This study investigated the room-rate pricing practice of five online distribution channels, measured by the lowest available rates. These online channels priced hotels of different categories in Shanghai, China’s largest city. Empirical findings indicated that local websites offered lower room rates than international websites for the selected hotels in different categories. Specifically, Chinatravel consistently offered the lowest room rates for the selected hotels.

The Influence of Creative Tourism on Sustainable Development of Tourism and Reduction of Seasonality – Case Study of Óbidos

Tourism remains one of the most fast growing and important industries in the world. It is hard to underestimate the importance and the spectrum of the benefits that tourism provides. On the other hand, nowadays, the increasing growth of tourism poses a range of challenges and problems that need to be solved. These challenges resonate in the emergence of the so called 'alternative' or sustainable forms of tourism, which deem to be an antidote against the harms the traditional forms of tourism cause to the environment and local communities. These new forms of tourism, among which is creative tourism, are reinforced by the new breed of tourists, who are no longer satisfied with the static offer of tourism but rather prefer the dynamic one. The present research shows on the case of Óbidos the potential of creative tourism to meet these new needs of modern tourists while also solving number of problems that many destinations face, namely seasonality in tourism, as well as how creative tourism contributes to the sustainable development of tourism.

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

Travel, back and forth, to the myth. Cinema´s contribution to the formation of the tourist iconography of Mallorca

Mallorca, the largest of the Balearic Islands, is a well-known summer holidays destination; an ideal place to relax and enjoy the sun and the sea. That tourist gaze reflected on postcards results from advertising campaigns, where cinema played an important role with documentaries and fiction films. The origins of that iconography started in the decades of the 1920’s and 1930’s, reflecting the so-called myth of the “island of calm”. On the other hand, the films of the 1950’s and 1960’s created new stereotypes related to the mass tourism boom. Busy beaches and the white bodies of tourists replaced white sandy beaches, mountains and landscapes shown up in the movies of the early decades of the 20th century. Besides, hotels and nightclubs also replaced monuments, rural landscapes and folk exhibitions. These tourist images mirror the social and spatial transformations of Mallorca, under standardization processes like other seaside mass tourist destinations. The identity was rebuilt on the foundations of "modernity". Although "balearization" has not ceased, nowadays filmmaking about Mallorca is advertising again a stereotype close to that one of the 1920s and 1930s, glorifying the myth of the "island of calm". This singular identity makes the island more profitable for capital that searches socio-spatial differentiation in post-fordist times.

Effects of light pollution by car headlights on loggerhead hatchlings in Cape Verde

[EN] Many sea turtle nesting areas are experiencing a tremendous growth in tourism during the last decades that will likely continue in the near future. Many touristic activities involve light pollution by the increasing presence of vehicles close or even over the beaches. Vehicles can drive towards or along the beaches and even stay with the lights turned on illuminating during prolonged periods of time significant zones with sea turtle nesting activity. Thus, it is important to evaluate the impact of car light pollution on both nesting females and newborns in their search of the sea.

Energy drinks in Ireland - a review

Energy drinks have risen in popularity in recent years and are now sold in over 165 countries worldwide. On the island of Ireland, energy drinks advertising accounted for 20% of the total soft drinks market advertising in 2014. In the United States, sales increased by 60% between 2008 and 2012, and in 2006, a staggering 500 new brands of energy drinks were released worldwide. In the UK, the energy drinks market is worth £491 million and is growing by 7% year on year. This report has found an eightfold increase in the number of energy drinks available in 2015 compared to 2002. While no standard definition of an energy drink is used in the scientific literature, it is commonly understood to be a non-alcoholic drink that contains caffeine (usually its main ingredient), taurine, vitamins and sometimes a combination of other ingredients (such as guarana and ginseng, among others), and it is marketed for its perceived or actual benefits as a stimulant, for improving performance and for increasing energy. As this report will highlight, there is some confusion amongst the public as to what the term "energy drink" means, as some soft and sports drinks, while containing little or no caffeine, use the term ‘energy’ in the product label, for example, Lucozade. Both the scientific community and the public have raised health concerns about the caffeine and calorie intakes associated with energy drinks and the use of these drinks as a mixer with alcohol. These concerns are disputed by the energy drinks industry.

Tourism Impacts of a Portuguese World Heritage Historic Center: Residents’ Perspectives

The World Heritage List (WHL) is widely considered a powerful tool for national tourism campaigns. Sites inscribed on the WHL by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) are commonly treated as catholicons in promoting the tourism industry, which in turn helps to promote economic growth and development. This study analyzes local community perceptions of the importance of the World Heritage Site (WHS) classification of the historic center of the Portuguese city of E ́vora. The research also includes an analysis of the local residents’ perceived tourism impacts on the municipality of E ́ vora. The methodology consists of quan- titative research based on a self-administered survey applied to convenience sam- ples of local residents of the municipality of E ́ vora in the beginning of 2014. The local residents’ perceptions of the level of importance of the WHS classification to the municipality and its impact in the increase of tourists is analyzed. Positive and negative tourism impacts are then ranked and a principal components factor analysis is employed separately to the two groups of impacts in order to identify underlying dimensions associated with residents’ perceptions on tourism develop- ment. Based on the results of the factor analysis, independent sample t-tests are used to investigate differences regarding positive and negative tourism impacts between residents that live near and far from the historic center, and between residents who work/have worked in the tourism sector and residents that work/ have worked in other sectors.

Post-Secular Tourism : A Study of Pilgrimages to Santiago de Compostela

This thesis takes its starting-point in the post-secular changes in society and how these interplay with tourism. In spite of the intensive academic debate on and theorisation of the post-secular and post-secularism, the role of tourism in this change, called the return of religion, has not been studied. Conversely, neither has the role of post-secularism in tourism been addressed. The overall aim of this thesis is to describe and understand the relation between post-secularism and tourism. Specifically, the aim is to clarify and understand the relation between religious faith, place and tourism in our time on the basis of a case study of pilgrimage in the area of Santiago de Compostela. In other words, the thesis highlights the role of tourism in the emergence of what is now called the post-secular condition. Santiago de Compostela is a Catholic Church instituted holy city, which has increase in number of visitors. The growing number of pilgrimages and their significance lend vitality to the return of religion phenomenon. The empirical material derives primarily from individual interviews as narratives are considered to be a vital dimension to constitute and construct human realities and modes of being. This thesis shows that contemporary pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela is a post-secular performative and place-creating phenomenon. Post-secular tourist places are subjective and spiritually meaningful destinations. Unlike traditional pilgrimage destinations a key attribute is that neither traditional religious faith nor loyalty to institutionalised faith are (pre)ordained. Rather, place is constructed by the narratives and experiences of post-secular tourists.

English for tourism : contribution to language use through mobile learning

Tourism is growing and is becoming more competitive. Destinations need to find elements which demonstrate their uniqueness, the singularity which allows them to differentiate themselves from others. This struggle for uniqueness makes economies become more competitive and competition is a central element in the dynamics of Tourism. Technology is also an added value for tourism competitiveness, as it allows destinations to become internationalised and known worldwide. In this scenario, research has increased as a means to study Tourism trends in fields such as sociology and marketing. Nevertheless, there are areas in which there is not much research done and which are fundamental: these are the areas concerned with identities, communication and interpersonal relations. In this regard, Linguistics has a major role for different reasons: firstly, it studies language itself and through it, communication, secondly, language conveys culture and, thirdly, it is by enriching language users that innovation in Tourism and in knowledge, as a whole, is made possible. This innovation, on the other hand, has repercussions in areas such as management, internationalisation and marketing as well. It is, therefore, the objective of this thesis to report on how learning experiences take place in Tourism undergraduate English language classes as well as to give an account of enhanced results in classes where mobile learning was adopted. In this way, an alliance between practice and research was established. This is beneficial for the teaching and learning process because by establishing links between research based insight and practice, the outcome is grounded knowledge which helps make solid educational decisions. This research, therefore, allows to better understand if learners accept working with mobile technologies in their learning process. Before introducing any teaching and learning approach, it was necessary to be informed, as well, of how English for tourism programmes are organised. This thesis also illustrates through the premises of Systemic Functional Linguistics that language use can be enhanced by using mobile technology in Tourism undergraduate language classes.

Attitudes of Future Tourism Sector Employees Towards Organise Accessible Tourism

The aim of this paper is to show a theoretical approach to the evolution of concepts perceiving disability, taking into account the medical, social, and geographical models, as the basis for the development of principles concerning the organisation of accessible tourism for people with disabilities (PwD). The main research objective was to identify the current attitudes of future, potential employees in the tourism (tourism and recreation students at the time of the study) towards accessible tourism. The study was based on surveys performed in May 2013 at the Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań (UAM, Poland) and the State University in Irkutsk (ИГУ, Russia), a total sample of 216 people. The main section of the survey contained four questions regarding issues such as: optimal ways to organise tourism products for people with a disability; attitudes towards spending leisure time together with people with a disability; and specific requirements concerning the introduction of various types of improvements in tourism products aimed at people with a disability. In both cases, the results revealed that future tourism employees hold attitudes which are prevailingly open and positive towards the needs of tourists with disabilities. However, the hypothesis that the main factor influencing a reluctance to enter into contact with PwD is a lack of experience in this area, resulting in insufficient knowledge of what conditions the behaviour of PwD was also confirmed. This is a highly significant conclusion which should consider if mandatory educational programmes in the field of tourism and recreation studies are to be improved.

Costa del Sol (Spain), analysis of economic and land changes caused by tourism

Malaga is in southern Spain, in a region called Andalusia. Costa del Sol belongs to the province of Malaga, near the Strait of Gibraltar and near the coast of Africa (about 300 km) and about 2,300 km of Sluptz. The Costa del Sol is next to the Mediterranean Sea and near the Atlantic Ocean. Strong and rapid growth of tourism in the countries of southern Europe and in Poland. Spain currently (2015) is the third largest inbound of international tourism (68 mil.) and the second inbound in tourism revenue. Europe is a major world tourist region. The first recipient of tourism in the world is France. Most tourism takes place between developed countries.

Co-creation of tourism experience: attention, involvement and memorability

Tese de Doutoramento, Turismo, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Detecting Free Riders in Collective Brands through a Hierarchical Choice Process

Free-riding behaviors exist in tourism and they should be analyzed from a comprehensive perspective; while the literature has mainly focused on free riders operating in a destination, the destinations themselves might also free ride when they are under the umbrella of a collective brand. The objective of this article is to detect potential free-riding destinations by estimating the contribution of the different individual destinations to their collective brands, from the point of view of consumer perception. We argue that these individual contributions can be better understood by reflecting the various stages that tourists follow to reach their final decision. A hierarchical choice process is proposed in which the following choices are nested (not independent): “whether to buy,” “what collective brand to buy,” and “what individual brand to buy.” A Mixed Logit model confirms this sequence, which permits estimation of individual contributions and detection of free riders.