Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?

The so-called German Dominance Hypothesis (GDH) claimed that Bundesbank policies were transmitted into other European Monetary System (EMS) interest rates during the pre-euro era. We reformulate this hypothesis for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries that are on the verge of accessing the eurozone. We test this \Euro Dominance Hypothesis (EDH)" in a novel way using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach that combines country-speci c error correction models in a global system. We nd that euro area monetary policies are transmitted into CEE interest rates which provides evidence for monetary integration between the eurozone and CEE countries. Our framework also allows for introducing global monetary shocks to provide empirical evidence regarding the e ects of the recent nancial crisis on monetary integration in Europe.

International Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Countries: National and Global Determinants

This paper examines international capital flows to emerging and developing countries. We assess whether commonalities exist, the permanence of shocks to commonalities and their determinants. Also, we consider individual country coherence with global capital flows and we measure the extent of co-movements in the volatility of capital flows. Our results suggest there are commonalities in capital inflows, although aggregate or disaggregate capital flows respond differently to shocks. We find that the US long run real interest rate is an important determinant of global capital flows, and real commodity prices are relevant but to a lesser extent. We also find a role for human capital in explaining why some countries can successfully ride the wave of financial globalisation.

The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics, financial constraints and two financial crises

Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995-2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997-98 Asian crisis and the 2007-09 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.

Beyond the Transatlantic Divide: The Multiple Authorities of Standards in the Global Political Economy of Services

This paper explores the plurality of institutional environments in which standards for the service sector are expected to support the rise of a global knowledge-based economy. Despite the careful wording of the World Trade Organization (WTO), a whole range of international bodies still have the capacity to define technical specifications affecting how services are expected to be traded on worldwide basis. The analysis relies on global political economy approaches to extend to the area of service standards the assumption that the process of globalization is not opposing states and markets, but a joint expression of both of them including new patterns and agents of structural change through formal and informal power and regulatory practices. It analyses on a cross-institutional basis patterns of authority in the institutional setting of service standards in the context of the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO), the European Union, and the United States. In contrast to conventional views opposing the American system to the ISO/European framework, the paper questions the robustness of this opposition by showing that institutional developments of service standards are likely to face trade-offs and compromises across those systems and between two opposing models of standardisation.

A century of global equity market correlations

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.

Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels, June 2011

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world agriculture. The fourth scenario reintroduces biofuel tax credits and duties. Given that the baseline excludes these policies, the fourth scenario is an attempt to understand the impact of these policies under the market conditions that prevail in early 2011. A key to understanding the results of this fourth scenario is that in the absence of tax credits and duties, the mandate drives biofuel use. Therefore, when the tax credits and duties are reintroduced, the impacts are relatively small. In general, the results show that the entire international commodity market system is remarkably robust with respect to policy changes in one country or in one sector. The policy implication is that domestic policy changes implemented by a large agricultural producer like the United States can have fairly significant impacts on the aggregate world commodity markets. A second point that emerges from the results is that the law of unintended consequences is at work in world agriculture. For example, a U.S. nitrogen tax that might presumably be motivated for environmental benefit results in an increase in world greenhouse gas emissions. A similar situation occurs in the afforestation scenario in which crop production shifts from high-yielding land in the United States to low-yielding land and probably native vegetation in the rest of the world, resulting in an unintended increase in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Information and Communication Society's Impact on Global Paper Consumption

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää informaatio- ja kommunikaatioyhteiskunnan vaikutusta paperin kulutukseen maailmanlaajuisesti. Tarkoituksena on löytää informaatio- ja kommunikaatioyhteiskuntaa kuvaavia mittareita, joiden avulla voidaan vertailla kehittyneitä ja kehittyviä markkina-alueita keskenään. Tutkimusongelmaan haetaan ratkaisua tutkimalla sekä kirjallisuutta että tilastoja, ja vertaamalla niitä esitettyihin teorioihin informaatio- ja kommunikaatioyhteiskunnan kehityksestä. Tutkielman avulla pyritään arvioimaan ja kuvaamaantoimintaympäristön muutoksia paperin kulutuksen suhteen pitkällä aikavälillä informaatio- ja kommunikaatioyhteiskunnan näkökulmasta.

The real estate markets : Players, institutions and territories

Revealing the parties, the processes and the institutions and, consequently, both the diversity and contingency of the real estate markets, the existing increasing literature emphasises the contemporary numerous links and interdependencies between real estate, land value, planning and town planning policy and even the financial system. This paper is an attempt to understand all the real estate markets, from the most peripheral ones, where the urban rent is the lowest, to the most dense city centres. To gain a better understanding of the real estate market, a process of firstly deconstruction and then reconstruction is used. The process of deconstruction involves identifying various market trends according to property type (principally residential buildings), players and institutions, territorial situations and temporalities based on research conducted in Switzerland. We then developed a meta-synthesis inspired by Fernand Braudel whose works put as much emphasis on day-to-day economic activity as on long-term activity, and on local as well as global issues.

Financial integration, capital misallocation and global imbalances

This paper shows that in a stylized model with two countries, characterized by different levels of financial development, the following facts can be replicated: 1) persistent current account surpluses and 2) high TFP growth in China. Under autarky, entrepreneurs in the emerging country overinvest in short-term projects and underinvest in long-term projects because short-term assets help them secure long-term investments in the presence of credit constraints. This creates an aggregate misallocation of capital. When financial markets integrate, entrepreneurs with long-term projects can have access to cheaper short-term assets abroad, which leaves them more resources to invest in their projects. This both reduces capital misallocations and generates capital outflows.

Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to test the intertemporal risk-return relation for 13 European stock markets. We identify country specific, euro area, and global macro-finance factors to determine the conditional risk and return. Empirically, the risk- return trade-off is generally negative. However, a Markov switching model documents that there is time-variation in this trade-off that is linked to the state of the economy. Keywords: Risk-return trade-off; Dynamic factor model; Macro-finance predictors; European stock markets; Markov switching model JEL Classifications: C22; G11; G12; G17

Transfer of Administrative HR Services to Global Service Center in Poland

Liiketoimintaa tukevien palvelujen etätuotanto edustaa uutta kansainvälistymisen muotoa. Kehittyvien markkinoiden nousu yhdistettynä yritysten arvoketjutoimintojen kansainvälistymiseen on luonut yrityksille kasvavan paineen etsiä parasta sijaintia toiminnoilleen. Monikansalliset yritykset ovat yhä useammin korvanneet paikallisia henkilöstöpalvelujaan siirtymällä globaaliin malliin jaettujen palvelujen tuotannossa. Tämä diplomityö on toteutettu tukeakseen UPM:n henkilöstöhallintoa globaalin palvelukeskuksen perustamisessa Puolaan. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on laajentaa käsitystä henkilöstöpalvelujen tarjontamallin uudistamiseen johtaneista tekijöistä ja motiiveista. Empiirisen tutkimuksen tärkein tavoite on tukea rekrytoinnin hallinnollisten töiden siirtoa globaaliin palvelukeskukseen palvelun laadun säilyessä vähintään aikaisemmalla tasolla. Tutkimuksen tulokset painottavat strategista näkökulmaa muutokseen. Strategiset syyt UPM:n henkilöstöhallinnon globaalin palvelukeskuksen perustamiselle sisältävät ylikapasiteetin ja päällekkäisten toimintojen vähentämisen eri maissa. Muutos lisää palvelun joustavuutta sekä edesauttaa toiminnan läpinäkyvyyttä, ennustettavuutta ja kustannusten valvontaa. Onnistuneesti toteutetut jaetut palvelut voivat toimia hyvänä lähtökohtana tehokkaiden henkilöstöpalvelujen tuottamiselle.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

Global Spare Parts Supply Chain Analysis

In today’s global industrial service business, markets are dynamic and finding new ways of value creation towards customers has become more and more challenging. Customer orientation is needed because of the demanding after-sales business which is both quickly changing and stochastic in nature. In after-sales business customers require fast and reliable service for their spare part needs. This thesis objective is to clarify this challenging after-sales business environment and find ways to increase customer satisfaction via balanced measurement system which will help to find possible targets to reduce order cycle times in a large metal and mineral company Outotec (Filters)’ Spare Part Supply business line. In case study, internal documents and data and numerical calculations together with qualitative interviews with different persons in key roles of Spare Part Supply organizations are used to analyze the performance of different processes from the spare parts delivery function. The chosen performance measurement tool is Balanced Scorecard which is slightly modified to suit the lead time study from customer’s perspective better. Findings show that many different processes in spare parts supply are facing different kind of challenges in achieving the lead time levels wanted and that these processes’ problems seem to accumulate. Findings also show that putting effort in supply side challenges and information flows visibility should give the best results.

Building a Roadmap for a Market Intelligence function in a Global B2B company

Tämän diplomityötutkimuksen tarkoituksena on luoda markkinaälyyn (MI) erikoistunut funktio suurelle, globaalisti toimivalle B2B-yritykselle. Tämän päivän muut-tuvilla markkinoilla, teollisuusyrityksen on oltava markkinalähtöinen selviytyäkseen. Markkinatiedon tehokas hyödyntäminen ei pelkästään luo tietoa markkinoista, vaan tuottaa kilpailukykyistä tietoa ja toimii strategisen päätöksenteon tukena pitkällä aikavälillä. Tämä tutkimus on kvalitatiivinen toimintatutkimus, joka sisältää kirjallisuuskat-sauksen, yritystapaustutkimuksen sekä syväanalyysin yrityksen MI-ympäristöstä. Kirjallisuuskatsaus pitää sisällään teoriaa liittyen markkinaälyyn useassa eri kon-tekstissa, asiakassuhteeseen, sekä prosessinmallintamiseen. Empiiriseen osaa seuraa tutkimusmenetelmäkappale, joka sisältää kaksivaiheisen tutkimuksen mukaan lu-kien 20 päällikkötason haastattelua sekä yhden laaja-alaisen työryhmätapaamisen. Työn tuloksena syntyy kolmivaiheinen tiekartta, jonka tarkoitus on toimia pohjana uuden MI-funktion rakentamiselle Case-yrityksessä. Tuloksen mukaan MI-funktio tulisi sijoittaa yrityksen asiakasrajapintaan sekä tukea yksiköiden välistä integraa-tiota. Markkinaälyn jakaminen yrityksen sisällä vaatii käytäntöjen, tarpeiden ja ta-voitteiden systemaattista viestintää eri organisaatiotasoille, jotta yritys voi edelleen saada asiakkaalta tarpeeseen vastaavaa tietoa. Viestintä yrityksen ja asiakkaan välil-lä on oltava molemminpuolista, jotta tulokset voisivat parantaa asiakassuhdetta. Kun asiakassuhde paranee, yritys voi oppia asiakkaalta arvokasta tietoa, markkinaälyä.

Structural dynamics in the global pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. Planted forests (especially eucalyptus) and recovered paper have quickly increased their importance as raw material for paper and paperboard production. Although advances in information and communication technologies could reduce the demand for communication papers, and the growth of paper consumption has indeed flattened in developed economies, particularly in North America and Western Europe, the consumption is increasing on a global scale. Moreover, the focal point of production and consumption is moving from the Western world to the rapidly growing markets of Southeast Asia. This study analyzes how the so-called megatrends (globalization, technological development, and increasing environmental awareness) affect the pulp and paper industry’s external environment, and seeks reliable ways to incorporate the impact of the megatrends on the models concerning the demand, trade, and use of paper and pulp. The study expands current research in several directions and points of view, for example, by applying and incorporating several quantitative methods and different models. As a result, the thesis makes a significant contribution to better understand and measure the impacts of structural changes on the pulp and paper industry. It also provides some managerial and policy implications.