Bogotá Chirriadísima

Bogotá Chirriadísima nace al identificar la gran oportunidad que tienen los souvenirs como una propuesta alternativa dentro del sector artesanal; la falta de innovación y el crecimiento del turismo en la ciudad, han creado el campo de acción para los productos que ofrecen un concepto 100% Bogotano. Estos productos a parte de cumplir su función de recordar gratos momentos de la experiencias vividas, son un medio para trasmitir una imagen histórica de los atractivos turísticos de la ciudad como de los lugares poco visitados que aun guardan su magia natural. Buscamos ofrecer productos funcionales y diferentes a los convencionales, con la idea de que en diferentes actividades hagan parte de la vida del turista. Al contar con mercado turístico en crecimiento, siendo Bogotá la ciudad mas visitada del país, se determino el tamaño de mercado por más de 55 mil millones de pesos; sin embargo por las condiciones de inicio del proyecto nos enfocaremos en una pequeña parte del segmento. Para desarrollar el proyecto se requiere de una inversión inicial de 28,3 millones de pesos, con el objetivo de lograr para el primer año la venta de 5.510 unidades que representen ingresos por más de 160 millones de pesos, para el segundo año se incrementa la producción a 9.743 unidades con ingresos por mas de 288 millones de pesos, lo que equivale a un incremento del 72% con respecto al año anterior. Finalmente para el año 3, se prevé un incremento en las ventas del 84% con ingresos por más de 532 millones correspondientes a 17.503 unidades El flujo del proyecto para el periodo de tres años, arroja una TIR o rentabilidad anual promedio de 124,39% lo cual determina que es un proyecto viable y de bajo riesgo, en cuanto al Valor Presente Neto, el proyecto arroja 102 millones adicionales, es decir que es mas rentable invertir los recursos en este proyecto que en uno que rente al 20% anual, finalmente, como la suma de las utilidades del primer y segundo año es superior a la inversión inicial, se determina que el Periodo de Recuperación de la Inversión se da en el segundo año.

The expected imprint of flux rope geometry on suprathermal electrons in magnetic clouds

Magnetic clouds are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections characterized by a smooth rotation in the magnetic field direction, which is interpreted as a signature of a magnetic flux rope. Suprathermal electron observations indicate that one or both ends of a magnetic cloud typically remain connected to the Sun as it moves out through the heliosphere. With distance from the axis of the flux rope, out toward its edge, the magnetic field winds more tightly about the axis and electrons must traverse longer magnetic field lines to reach the same heliocentric distance. This increased time of flight allows greater pitch-angle scattering to occur, meaning suprathermal electron pitch-angle distributions should be systematically broader at the edges of the flux rope than at the axis. We model this effect with an analytical magnetic flux rope model and a numerical scheme for suprathermal electron pitch-angle scattering and find that the signature of a magnetic flux rope should be observable with the typical pitch-angle resolution of suprathermal electron data provided ACE's SWEPAM instrument. Evidence of this signature in the observations, however, is weak, possibly because reconnection of magnetic fields within the flux rope acts to intermix flux tubes.

Replacing Norway spruce with European beech: a comparison of biomass and Net Primary Production patterns in young stands

An alteration of species composition in temperate forests – both managed and natural - is one of the expected effects of environmental change. Present forest tree species ranges will be altered by changing environmental conditions. By a combination of continuous and destructive sampling, we compared biomass stocks and annual NPP in naturally regenerated stands of Norway spruce and European beech. We purposely selected a site where future environmental conditions are predicted to favour beech over presently dominant spruce. We found no difference in overall productivity, but biomass allocation differed significantly between the two species. Beech allocated more assimilates to stem and roots than spruce. There was no significant difference between the species in NPP of the fast turnover biomass pool comprising foliage and fine roots. Maximum height growth occurred about a month earlier than in spruce, potentially changing the timing of carbon (C) flow into the soil pools. We show that the replacement of spruce by beech will result in changes in forest biomass allocation and in alterations of belowground C cycle. Such changes will affect forest ecosystem function by modifying the magnitude and timing of certain C fluxes, but also by potentially changing the species composition of forest biota dependent on them.

[Global climate] global aerosols [in state of the climate in 2008]

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland. The year 2008 was also characterized by heavy precipitation in a number of regions of northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. In contrast, a prolonged and intense drought occurred during most of 2008 in northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, causing severe impacts to agriculture and affecting many communities. The year began with a strong La Niña episode that ended in June. Eastward surface current anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean in early 2008 played a major role in adjusting the basin from strong La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions by July–August, followed by a return to La Niña conditions late in December. The La Niña conditions resulted in far-reaching anomalies such as a cooling in the central tropical Pacific, Arctic Ocean, and the regions extending from the Gulf of Alaska to the west coast of North America; changes in the sea surface salinity and heat content anomalies in the tropics; and total column water vapor, cloud cover, tropospheric temperature, and precipitation patterns typical of a La Niña. Anomalously salty ocean surface salinity values in climatologically drier locations and anomalously fresh values in rainier locations observed in recent years generally persisted in 2008, suggesting an increase in the hydrological cycle. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the 14th busiest on record and the only season ever recorded with major hurricanes each month from July through November. Conversely, activity in the northwest Pacific was considerably below normal during 2008. While activity in the north Indian Ocean was only slightly above average, the season was punctuated by Cyclone Nargis, which killed over 145,000 people; in addition, it was the seventh-strongest cyclone ever in the basin and the most devastating to hit Asia since 1991. Greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise, increasing by more than expected based on with CO2 the 1979 to 2007 trend. In the oceans, the global mean uptake for 2007 is estimated to be 1.67 Pg-C, about CO2 0.07 Pg-C lower than the long-term average, making it the third-largest anomaly determined with this method since 1983, with the largest uptake of carbon over the past decade coming from the eastern Indian Ocean. Global phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations were slightly elevated in 2008 relative to 2007, but regional changes were substantial (ranging to about 50%) and followed long-term patterns of net decreases in chlorophyll with increasing sea surface temperature. Ozone-depleting gas concentrations continued to fall globally to about 4% below the peak levels of the 2000–02 period. Total column ozone concentrations remain well below pre-1980, levels and the 2008 ozone hole was unusually large (sixth worst on record) and persistent, with low ozone values extending into the late December period. In fact the polar vortex in 2008 persisted longer than for any previous year since 1979. Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for the year was well below average due in large part to the record-low ice extent in March and despite the record-maximum coverage in January and the shortest snow cover duration on record (which started in 1966) in the North American Arctic. Limited preliminary data imply that in 2008 glaciers continued to lose mass, and full data for 2007 show it was the 17th consecutive year of loss. The northern region of Greenland and adjacent areas of Arctic Canada experienced a particularly intense melt season, even though there was an abnormally cold winter across Greenland's southern half. One of the most dramatic signals of the general warming trend was the continued significant reduction in the extent of the summer sea-ice cover and, importantly, the decrease in the amount of relatively older, thicker ice. The extent of the 2008 summer sea-ice cover was the second-lowest value of the satellite record (which started in 1979) and 36% below the 1979–2000 average. Significant losses in the mass of ice sheets and the area of ice shelves continued, with several fjords on the northern coast of Ellesmere Island being ice free for the first time in 3,000–5,500 years. In Antarctica, the positive phase of the SAM led to record-high total sea ice extent for much of early 2008 through enhanced equatorward Ekman transport. With colder continental temperatures at this time, the 2007–08 austral summer snowmelt season was dramatically weakened, making it the second shortest melt season since 1978 (when the record began). There was strong warming and increased precipitation along the Antarctic Peninsula and west Antarctica in 2008, and also pockets of warming along coastal east Antarctica, in concert with continued declines in sea-ice concentration in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas. One significant event indicative of this warming was the disintegration and retreat of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in the southwest peninsula area of Antarctica.

Widespread supplementary feeding in domestic gardens explains the return of reintroduced Red Kites Milvus milvus to an urban area

Reintroductions are used worldwide to mitigate biodiversity loss. One prominent case is a charismatic raptor of conservation concern, the Red Kite Milvus milvus. This species has been reintroduced across the UK over the last 25 years following its near extinction after centuries of persecution. The species was not expected to recolonize urban areas; its historical association with human settlements is attributed to scavenging on human waste and refuse, a resource now greatly reduced on the streets of modern Western cities. However, the species has become a common day-time visitor to a large conurbation centred on the town of Reading, southern England, approximately 20 km from the first English reintroduction site. Given a near-absence of breeding and roost sites, we investigated foraging opportunities and habitat associations that might explain use by Red Kites of this urban area. Surveys of discarded human foods and road-kill suggested that these could support at most 13−29 kites/day. Face-to-face surveys of a cross-section of residents revealed that 4.5% (equivalent to 4349 households) provided supplementary food for kites. Using estimates of per-household resource provision from another study, we calculated that this level is potentially sufficient to provision 142−320 kites, a substantial proportion of the total estimated to visit the conurbation each day (between 140 and 440). Road transects found positive associations between Red Kites and residential areas. We therefore suggest that the decision made by thousands of individuals to provide supplementary food for Red Kites is the primary factor explaining their day-time abundance in this urban area.

Elementary Petri net inside RFID distributed database (PNRD)

Usually, a Petri net is applied as an RFID model tool. This paper, otherwise, presents another approach to the Petri net concerning RFID systems. This approach, called elementary Petri net inside an RFID distributed database, or PNRD, is the first step to improve RFID and control systems integration, based on a formal data structure to identify and update the product state in real-time process execution, allowing automatic discovery of unexpected events during tag data capture. There are two main features in this approach: to use RFID tags as the object process expected database and last product state identification; and to apply Petri net analysis to automatically update the last product state registry during reader data capture. RFID reader data capture can be viewed, in Petri nets, as a direct analysis of locality for a specific transition that holds in a specific workflow. Following this direction, RFID readers storage Petri net control vector list related to each tag id is expected to be perceived. This paper presents PNRD cornerstones and a PNRD implementation example in software called DEMIS Distributed Environment in Manufacturing Information Systems.

Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM) : uma aplicação ao mercado brasileiro de ações

Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar a fundamentação teórica e efetuar uma aplicação prática de uma das mais importantes descobertas no campo das finanças: o modelo de precificação de ativos de capital padrão, denominado de Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM). Na realização da aplicação prática, comparou-se a performance entre os retornos dos investimentos exigidos pelo referido modelo e os realmente obtidos. Foram analisadas cinco ações com a maior participação relativa na carteira teórica do Ibovespa e com retornos publicados de junho de 1998 a maio de 2001. Os dados foram obtidos da Economática da UFRGS e testados utilizando-se o Teste-t (duas amostras em par para médias) na ferramenta MS Excel. Os resultados foram tabelados e analisados, de onde se concluiu que, estatisticamente, com índice de confiança de 95%, não houve diferença de performance entre os retornos esperados e os realmente obtidos dos ativos objeto desta dissertação, no período estudado.

The effect of guia exame's ratings on the brazilian fund industry: an analysis of net-worth flows

This paper infers the impact the publication Guia Exame (the guide) has on the Brazilian fund industry, more specifically on the ability the concerned funds develop on attracting new investment. The impact is measured using the event-study analysis based on the variation of net worth subsequently to the event of being rated, according to the methodology applied by the guide to rank the funds. We used five years of fund ratings according to Guia Exame (2000-2004) and analyzed the changes of these funds net worth. We also compared the event amongst different categories of funds. The results found confirm the expected effects according to star rankings and asset manager size in all years.

Alinhamento estratégico de TI: avaliando as percepções de executivos de negócio e TI

The Information Technology (IT) is a concept which has gained importance for organizations. It is expected that the strategic use of IT not only sustain the business operations of enterprises, but mainly leverage the initiative of new competitive strategies. However, these expectations on the earnings with the IT not have been achieved and questions arise about the return of the investments in IT. One of the causes is credited to the lack of alignment between the strategies of business and IT. The search of strategic alignment between IT and business takes to the necessity of measure it. This assessment can help identify whether the perceptions of business executives and IT executives, about the strategic alignment of IT, are similar or different. The objective of this work is to investigate the perceptions of business executives and IT executives in relation to the IT strategic alignment implemented in a selected organization. It was conducted a case study, in a company that provides services to the financial market. As a result, this work identified that there is no statistically significant difference between the perceptions of business executives and IT executives, related to the level of IT strategic alignment maturity implemented in the organization, and highlighted factors that promote this alignment: (a) senior management supports the IT (b) IT takes part of strategic planning, (c) IT understands the business of the company, and (d) there is a partnership between business and IT executives. Additionally, it was proposed that these similar perceptions result from the sharing of assumptions, knowledge and common expectations for the IT strategic alignment between the two groups of executives interviewed, and that led the company to achieve a higher level of IT strategic alignment. Each Practice of Strategic Alignment was examined separately. Although not have statistically significant differences between the perceptions of business executives and IT executives, the practices of Communication, Measures of Value and Competence, and Skills were better assessed by business executives and the practices of Governance and Partnerships have been better perceived by IT executives. The practice of Scope and Architecture and the IT Strategic Alignment, showed no differences in perceptions between the two groups of executives.

Modelos de risco de mercado com fat tail : análise empírica de value at risk and expected shortfall para ativos financeiros brasileiros

O objetivo deste trabalho foi mostrar modelagens alternativas à tradicional maneira de se apurar o risco de mercado para ativos financeiros brasileiros. Procurou-se cobrir o máximo possível de fatores de risco existentes no Brasil; para tanto utilizamos as principais proxies para instrumentos de Renda Fixa. Em momentos de volatilidade, o gerenciamento de risco de mercado é bastante criticado por trabalhar dentro de modelagens fundamentadas na distribuição normal. Aqui reside a maior contribuição do VaR e também a maior crítica a ele. Adicionado a isso, temos um mercado caracterizado pela extrema iliquidez no mercado secundário até mesmo em certos tipos de títulos públicos federais. O primeiro passo foi fazer um levantamento da produção acadêmica sobre o tema, seja no Brasil ou no mundo. Para a nossa surpresa, pouco, no nosso país, tem se falado em distribuições estáveis aplicadas ao mercado financeiro, seja em gerenciamento de risco, precificação de opções ou administração de carteiras. Após essa etapa, passamos a seleção das variáveis a serem utilizadas buscando cobrir uma grande parte dos ativos financeiros brasileiros. Assim, deveríamos identificar a presença ou não da condição de normalidade para, aí sim, realizarmos as modelagens das medidas de risco, VaR e ES, para os ativos escolhidos, As condições teóricas e práticas estavam criadas: demanda de mercado (crítica ao método gausiano bastante difundido), ampla cobertura de ativos (apesar do eventual questionamento da liquidez), experiência acadêmica e conhecimento internacional (por meio de detalhado e criterioso estudo da produção sobre o tema nos principais meios). Analisou-se, desta forma, quatro principais abordagens para o cálculo de medidas de risco sendo elas coerentes (ES) ou não (VaR). É importante mencionar que se trata de um trabalho que poderá servir de insumo inicial para trabalhos mais grandiosos, por exemplo, aqueles que incorporarem vários ativos dentro de uma carteira de riscos lineares ou, até mesmo, para ativos que apresentem risco não-direcionais.

Empirical essays on IPOS: the Brazilian case

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the main factors that determine the first-day return and the Flipping activity in Brazilian IPOs, taking into account expected results according to national and international researches. The data base encompasses IPOs that took place between May 2004 and February 2011, summing up to 129 IPOs and approximately R$ 128 billion offering. The first-day return, which means the “money left on the table”, was on average 4.6% taking into consideration the issue price, while the Flipping activity totalized R$ 7.2 billion, meaning 5.6% of the offering. The first-day return was analyzed before and after the first trade, and evidences were found supporting (a) the exogenous determination of the issue price, (b) the opening price dependence of prospectus disclosure and of other variables, observable previously to the bookbuilding process, and (c) the cascade behavior of investors in the pricing after the first trade, particularly driven by the underwriter behavior. In regards to the Flipping, it was notorious depending on how much the IPO succeeded, being concentrated in and homogeneous along the first-day, despite the intense negotiation in the first minute. As a general contribution to literature, it was concluded that Information Asymmetry Theory arguments are not sufficient to explain the first-day Underpricing and the Flipping, being necessary arguments based on Behavioral Finance adapted to an intraday perspective.

Biodiesel do dendê: um estudo de viabilidade econômico financeira no Estado do Pará

O objetivo deste estudo é analisar três modelos de operação de uma usina de extração de óleo de palma, de óleo de palmiste, e de biodiesel, respectivamente, em conjunto com a produção de dendê pela agricultura familiar, visando o fornecimento exclusivo de matéria-prima para a indústria através da parceria com Programa Nacional da Agricultura Familiar. O projeto consiste na construção de uma usina de grande porte, a partir de investimentos de fontes públicas e privadas voltados à construção do complexo industrial e ao financiamento da implantação do cultivo de dendê pelos agricultores. Foram construídos quatro cenários, onde foram analisados os indicadores de performance econômico-financeira de avaliação do arranjo produtivo da indústria e da parte agrícola. Esses cenários visam a tomada de decisões de investimentos, através da utilização dos indicadores econômico-financeiros clássicos para avaliação da viabilidade do dendê como matéria-prima para o complexo industrial da usina. Entre os indicadores utilizados neste trabalho podemos citar como principais: o VPL (Valor Presente Líquido) e a TIR (Taxa Interna de Retorno), e indicadores secundários utilizados como suporte para as análises, tais como Payback Descontado, TIRM (Taxa Interna de Retorno Modificada), dentre outros. Além de indicadores sociais, como geração de renda para as famílias de agricultores, com o objetivo principal de criar valor monetário, gerar emprego e renda e pagar os recursos dos investidores púbicos. A implantação do dendezal está fundamentada no Zoneamento Agroecológico do dendê e será executada em áreas degradas por pastagens para garantir a sustentabilidade, contribuir para a recuperação ambiental através do sequestro de carbono e diminuir a pressão sobre as florestas nativas. Consequentemente, espera-se que o projeto contribua para evitar o avanço do desmatamento na região da Amazônia legal. Para tanto, foram realizadas visitas às plantações de dendê e à usina da Biopalma. Também foram realizadas visitas à Embrapa Ocidental na cidade de Manaus e Embrapa na Cidade de Campinas. Foi proposto um modelo de análise econômica financeira baseado em implantação de uma usina de grande porte para a produção de Biodiesel no Estado do Pará. O estudo apresentou, dentre suas limitações, o fato de ser complexo e amplo. A inexistência de projetos de usina grande envergadura totalmente implantados e funcionando com emprego de tecnologia e capital intensivo, como também a impossibilidade de se realizar esta pesquisa de amplo espectro sem um número consideravelmente maior de organizações envolvidas. Como resultado, os indicadores economicos analisados mostram que há viabilidade do projeto em três dos quatro cenários construídos, demonstrando que o capital dos investidores públicos, privados e do agricultor familiar serão remunerados utilizando às taxas de juros, prazos, condições do mercado de capitais. O objetivo é atrair investimentos para a produção de biodiesel, implantação de empreendimentos agrícolas, indústriais, geração emprego e renda para Agricultura Familiar na cadeia produtiva do dendê.

Board of directors and top management team: a study on CEO relative power and financial return

Best corporate governance practices published in the primers of Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission and the Brazilian Corporate Governance Institute promote board independence as much as possible, as a way to increase the effectiveness of governance mechanism (Sanzovo, 2010). Therefore, this paper aims at understanding if what the managerial literature portraits as being self-evident - stricter governance, better performance - can be observed in actual evidence. The question answered is: do companies with a stricter control and monitoring system perform better than others? The method applied in this paper consists on comparing 116 companies in respect to the their independence level between top management team and board directors– being that measured by four parameters, namely, the percentage of independent outsiders in the board, the separation of CEO and chairman, the adoption of contingent compensation and the percentage of institutional investors in the ownership structure – and their financial return measured in terms return on assets (ROA) from the latest Quarterly Earnings release of 2012. From the 534 companies listed in the Stock Exchange of Sao Paulo – Bovespa – 116 were selected due to their level of corporate governance. The title “Novo Mercado” refers to the superior level of governance level within companies listed in Bovespa, as they have to follow specific criteria to assure shareholders ´protection (BM&F, 2011). Regression analyses were conducted in order to reveal the correlation level between two selected variables. The results from the regression analysis were the following: the correlation between each parameter and ROA was 10.26%; the second regression analysis conducted measured the correlation between the independence level of top management team vis-à-vis board directors – namely, CEO relative power - and ROA, leading to a multiple R of 5.45%. Understanding that the scale is a simplification of the reality, the second part of the analysis transforms all the four parameters into dummy variables, excluding what could be called as an arbitrary scale. The ultimate result from this paper led to a multiple R of 28.44%, which implies that the combination of the variables are still not enough to translate the complex reality of organizations. Nonetheless, an important finding can be taken from this paper: two variables (percentage of outside directors and percentage of institutional investor ownership) are significant in the regression, with p-value lower than 10% and with negative coefficients. In other words, counter affirming what the literature very often portraits as being self-evident – stricter governance leads to higher performance – this paper has provided evidences to believe that the increase in the formal governance structure trough outside directors in the board and ownership by institutional investor might actually lead to worse performance. The section limitations and suggestions for future researches presents some reasons explaining why, although supported by strong theoretical background, this paper faced some challenging methodological assumptions, precluding categorical statements about the level of governance – measured by four selected parameters – and the financial return in terms of financial on assets.

Análise do desempenho de longo prazo dos IPOs de empresas com participação prévia de fundos de private equity e venture capital de 2004 a 2011 na BM&F Bovespa

O mercado brasileiro de ofertas públicas iniciais a partir de 2004 passou por um reaquecimento. O período até 2008, segundo a Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial – ABDI (2009) foi marcado pela aceleração das saídas de investidores em Private Equity e Venture Capital (PE/VC) via mercado de ações. Esses fundos são bem ativos nas empresas investidas e buscam ter acesso e influenciar as decisões dos administradores, exigem um volume grande de informações gerenciais, se preocupam com a profissionalização da gestão da empresa além de impor práticas de governança e transparência. Por serem investidores ativos espera-se que as empresas que tiveram participação desses veículos de investimento no momento anterior a abertura do capital apresentem retornos melhores do que outras sem essa participação. Assim objetivo desse estudo é verificar se há evidencias de que a presença de fundos de private equitiy ou venture capital no capital social da empresa antes de seu lançamento afeta o desempenho de longo prazo de suas ações, no presente estudo estabelecido como até 3 anos. Foi utilizada a metodologia de estudo de eventos para a investigação dos retornos de uma amostra de 126 IPOs ocorridos entre 2004 e 2011 no Brasil. A metodologia empregada tem como base o trabalho de Ritter (1991) com as recomendações de Khotari e Warner (2006), Ahern (2009) e Mackinlay (1997). Para o cálculo dos retronos anormais acumulados, ou cummulative abnormal returns – CAR utilizou-se o retorno ajustado pelo mercado, ou Market Adjusted Returns Equaly Wheighted, MAREW, utilizando como benchmark o Ibovespa e tendo como base um portifólio com pesos iguais. Verificou-se que há um retorno anormal médio de 3,47% no dia do lançamento que com o passar do tempo o retorno se torna negativo, sendo -15,27% no final do primeiro ano, -37,32% no final do segundo ano e chegando a -36,20% no final do terceiro ano. Para verificar o que influencia o CAR no longo prazo, foram relizadas regressões para os períodos de 1, 6, 12, 24 e 36 com as variáveis de controle Tamanho da Empresa, Tamanho da Oferta, Proporção da Oferta Primária, Idade, Quantidade de Investidores e Underprice para medir qual a influência de um fundo de Private Equity no retorno excedente acumulado das ações. A presença de um fundo de Private Equity ou Venture Capital se mostrou significativa apenas depois de seis meses do lançamento.