Robust design optimization of gas turbine compression systems

Gas turbine compression systems are required to perform adequately over a range of operating conditions. Complexity has encouraged the conventional design process for compressors to focus initially on one operating point, usually the most commonor arduous, to draw up an outline design. Generally, only as this initial design is refined is its offdesign performance assessed in detail. Not only does this necessarily introduce a potentially costly and timeconsuming extra loop in the design process, but it also may result in a design whose offdesign behavior is suboptimal. Aversion of nonintrusive polynomial chaos was previously developed in which a set of orthonormal polynomials was generated to facilitate a rapid analysis of robustness in the presence of generic uncertainties with good accuracy. In this paper, this analysis method is incorporated in real time into the design process for the compression system of a three-shaft gas turbine aeroengine. This approach to robust optimization is shown to lead to designs that exhibit consistently improved system performance with reduced sensitivity to offdesign operation.

Camino a la jubilación: alquiler versus compra de vivienda

Las previsiones del número de personas mayores en España para el año 2050 se han disparado. Un aumento de la población mayor que supondrá grandes dificultades para un sistema público de pensiones cuya viabilidad está en duda. España es un país en el que la cultura del ahorro a través de la vivienda en propiedad está muy arraigada. Sin embargo, en la actualidad existe un auge de las personas que optan por el alquiler como forma de residencia. Por ello, durante este trabajo se analiza la vida de una persona que optará bien por la compra de una vivienda o bien por el alquiler de una vivienda para complementar su futura pensión pública. Mediante la compra de vivienda, y una vez amortizado el préstamo hipotecario que deberá soportar, se le presentaran los productos denominados vivienda pensión e hipoteca inversa para financiar las posibles necesidades que puedan surgir en su jubilación. Por otro lado, el arrendatario optara por un producto de ahorro a largo plazo, cuya rentabilidad variara a lo largo del tiempo en función de su aversión al riesgo, de manera que llegado el momento de la jubilación disponga de un capital.

Políticas públicas para mulheres: estudo de uma experiência no âmbito do governo federal do Brasil (2003-2010)

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo a investigação sobre a criação da Secretaria Especial de Políticas para Mulheres em 2003. Este organismo institucional surgiu a partir da vitória do Partido dos Trabalhadores para a Presidência da República através da candidatura de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Os atores envolvidos na concretização desta iniciativa e os fatores que levaram este governo a colocar em sua agenda central o combate às desigualdades sociais entre homens e mulheres é o interesse central tratado. A existência desta experiência é precedida por outra modalidade institucional, o Conselho Nacional de Direitos da Mulher, criado em 1985. As duas iniciativas são diferentes e são elaboradas em contextos e épocas diversas. Estas variações de propostas de institucionalização via Estado de políticas públicas para mulheres retrata uma característica do movimento feminista brasileiro que é seu caráter amplo e diverso. Com a convivência de setores com pautas e demandas diferenciadas, este movimento também mostra sua diversidade através das propostas institucionais. Do ponto de vista metodológico, foi utilizada a técnica das entrevistas semi-estruturadas com feministas que participaram da elaboração da Secretaria Especial de Políticas para Mulheres. Também foram utilizados livros, artigos e documentos considerados relevantes a partir do material das entrevistas. O perfil destas mulheres era de militantes ligadas ao Partido dos Trabalhadores, visto que foi a vitória deste partido para a Presidência da República que permitiu a concretização desta instituição. Todas as entrevistadas participaram historicamente da luta feminista desde aproximadamente as décadas de 1970 e 1980, sempre inseridas e dialogando com as propostas de governo do PT. Este estudo contribui para o esclarecimento deste episódio da história da institucionalização estatal das demandas do movimento feminista e para o fornecimento de mais ferramentas para o debate da importância que as políticas públicas e o Estado possuem no combate às desigualdades sociais entre homens e mulheres. A ideia de que a igualdade de gênero deve ser promovida dentro do Estado, a partir de suas ações e seus profissionais e, assim, trabalhada na sociedade como um todo é fundamental para que situações de inequidade sejam combatidas.

Empresas promotoras de saúde no sistema de saúde colombiano: dinâmica financeira estrutural.

Esta dissertação analisou as Empresas Promotoras de Salud (EPS), seguradoras de saúde introduzidas no sistema de saúde colombiano através da reforma sanitária instaurada com a Lei n 100/1993, desde uma perspectiva de economia política crítica, através do método de análise documental. A maioria delas são empresas privadas com finalidade lucrativa que conformaram rapidamente um oligopólio que reproduziu problemas dos modelos de Managed Care e Managed Competition já conhecidos internacionalmente. Esta dissertação analisou as relações entre os processos de financeirização do sistema capitalista e o processo de ajuste estrutural na Colômbia, com a reforma sanitária e a dinâmica financeira das EPS. Também foi analisada a introdução de mecanismos próprios do processo de financeirização na gestão financeira das EPS, como: a alavancagem; a reprodução ampliada de capital através da dívida pública; e os investimentos em ativos securitizados. Dado que o sistema de saúde atual se caracteriza por altos níveis de inequidade e injustiça, as consequências da finalidade lucrativa neste, com suas expressões concretas de sofrimento e morte na população, foram preocupações transversais deste trabalho. Os resultados desta dissertação demonstraram a concentração oligopólica do mercado de seguros privados de saúde, cujas empresas se organizaram como um cartel, dificultando o acesso aos serviços de saúde para seus segurados, o que contribuiu para a piora de indicadores de saúde da população. Quando a mobilização social obrigou a aumentar o controle sobre as EPS, estas começaram a sair do mercado declarando-se em falência, ou entrando subitamente em balanços financeiros negativos.

Homens idosos em programas de esporte e lazer

O cotidiano dos projetos sociais sobre esporte e lazer revela grupos de participantes que se identificam com as atividades lá desenvolvidas. Por outro lado, há pessoas avessas às atividades dos projetos, porque normalmente alguma característica as deixa desconfortáveis. Considerando essa realidade, o estudo procurou identificar os fatores que interferem na participação de homens idosos em programas de esporte e lazer. O estudo foi aplicado no bairro de Piedade, zona norte da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, onde foram entrevistados 10 idosos que residem próximo do projeto SUDERJ em FORMA. Para a coleta, processamento e apresentação dos dados utilizamos a abordagem radical das representações sociais proposta por Votre (2009), a partir do Discurso do Sujeito Coletivo (DSC) de Lefebvre et al (2007). O modelo de análise delineado valoriza tanto as pessoas individuais, em suas falas singulares, quanto a reunião dessas pessoas, que falam como grupo sobre tópicos que lhes são relevantes. Os resultados obtidos apontam que os fatores que contribuem para a ausência dos homens idosos nas atividades desenvolvidas pelo projeto são: a figura do professor e o método por ele aplicado; receio, vergonha e discriminação, em participar com mulheres e jovens; gosto por outras práticas não oferecidas pelo projeto. Embora toda a boa premissa relacionada aos benefícios da participação dos idosos em programas de esporte e lazer e perante a garantia de acesso a estes programas, no estudo ficou constatado que tais condições não são suficientes para atingir o público masculino de idosos. Consideramos que no processo de criação de novas estratégias e propostas de intervenção, é de extrema importância que ocorra um planejamento cuidadoso que identifique as dificuldades sociais e individuais que reduzam ou impeçam a participação do sujeito idoso nas atividades propostas. Concluímos, também, que reforçar os benefícios da prática da atividade física, oferecer atividades de lazer não ligadas à prática esportiva, oferecer atividades adaptadas e atividades exclusivas para os homens, são alternativas viáveis para atrair o homem idoso para o projeto.

A reason for unreason: returns-based beliefs in game theory

Players cooperate in experiments more than game theory would predict. We introduce the ‘returns-based beliefs’ approach: the expected returns of a particular strategy in proportion to total expected returns of all strategies. Using a decision analytic solution concept, Luce’s (1959) probabilistic choice model, and ‘hyperpriors’ for ambiguity in players’ cooperability, our approach explains empirical observations in various classes of games including the Prisoner’s and Traveler’s Dilemmas. Testing the closeness of fit of our model on Selten and Chmura (2008) data for completely mixed 2 × 2 games shows that with loss aversion, returns-based beliefs explain the data better than other equilibrium concepts.

Graduate Education for Leadership in Sustainable Development Innovation , Practice and Research

This paper reflects on the motivation, method and effectiveness of teaching leadership and organisational change to graduate engineers. Delivering progress towards sustainable development requires engineers who are aware of pressing global issues (such as resource depletion, climate change, social inequity and an interdependent economy) since it is they who deliver the goods and services that underpin society within these constraints. In recognition of this fact the Cambridge University MPhil in Engineering for Sustainable Development has focussed on educating engineers to become effective change agents in their professional field with the confidence to challenge orthodoxy in adopting traditional engineering solutions. This paper reflects on ten years of delivering this course to review how teaching change management and leadership aspects of the programme have evolved and progressed over that time. As the students on this professional practice have often extensive experience as practising engineers and scientists, they have learned the limitations of their technical background when solving complex problems. Students often join the course recognising their need to broaden their knowledge of relevant cross-disciplinary skills. The course offers an opportunity for these early to mid-career engineers to explore an ethical and value-based approach to bringing about effective change in their particular sectors and organisations. This is achieved through action learning assignments in combination with reflections on the theory of change to enable students to equip themselves with tools that help them to be effective in making their professional and personal life choices. This paper draws on feedback gathered from students during their participation on the course and augments this with alumni reflections gathered some years after their graduation. These professionals are able to look back on their experience of the taught components and reflect on how they have been able to apply this key learning in their subsequent careers.

Graduate education for leadership and organisational change in sustainable development

This paper reflects on the motivation, method and effectiveness of teaching leadership and organisational change to graduate engineers. Delivering progress towards sustainable development requires engineers who are aware of pressing global issues (such as resource depletion, climate change, social inequity and an interdependent economy) since it is they who deliver the goods and services that underpin society within these constraints. They also must understand how to implement change in the organisations within which they will work. In recognition of this fact the Cambridge University MPhil in Engineering for Sustainable Development has focussed on educating engineers to become effective change agents in their professional field with the confidence to challenge orthodoxy in adopting traditional engineering solutions. This paper reflects on ten years of delivering a special module to review how teaching change management and leadership aspects of the programme have evolved and progressed over that time. As the students who embark on this professional practice have often extensive experience as practising engineers and scientists, many have already learned the limitations of their technical background when solving complex problems. Students often join the course recognising their need to broaden their knowledge of relevant cross-disciplinary skills. The programme offers an opportunity for these early to mid-career engineers to explore an ethical and value-based approach to bringing about effective change in their particular sectors and organisations. This is achieved through action learning assignments in combination with reflections on the theory of change to enable students to equip themselves with tools that help them to be effective in making their professional and personal life choices. This paper draws on feedback gathered from students during their participation on the programme and augments this with alumni reflections gathered some years after their graduation. These professionals are able to look back on their experience of the taught components and reflect on how they have been able to apply this key learning in their subsequent careers. Copyright © 2012 September.

Opponent appetitive-aversive neural processes underlie predictive learning of pain relief.

Termination of a painful or unpleasant event can be rewarding. However, whether the brain treats relief in a similar way as it treats natural reward is unclear, and the neural processes that underlie its representation as a motivational goal remain poorly understood. We used fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging) to investigate how humans learn to generate expectations of pain relief. Using a pavlovian conditioning procedure, we show that subjects experiencing prolonged experimentally induced pain can be conditioned to predict pain relief. This proceeds in a manner consistent with contemporary reward-learning theory (average reward/loss reinforcement learning), reflected by neural activity in the amygdala and midbrain. Furthermore, these reward-like learning signals are mirrored by opposite aversion-like signals in lateral orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex. This dual coding has parallels to 'opponent process' theories in psychology and promotes a formal account of prediction and expectation during pain.

说谎行为识别线索的比较研究

Studies on lie-detection by western psychologists indicate that lying cues people usually hold are not in accordance with the real verbal and non-verbal behaviors that liars usually show. A cross-culture study carried out by C.F.Bond and its global research team finds that the commonest view held by people from 75 nations about lying behavior is that liars usually avert gaze, while study shows that gaze-aversion has no relation with lying. In Bond’s view, stereotype of the liar reflect more about common cross-culture values than an objective description of how liars behave. Different culture has its norms based upon which people judge whether a person is credible or not. As a nation of long Confucianism tradition, how Chinese view liars differently from people of other culture is the interest of this study. By a comparative study with that of Bond’s research, it is found that, in line with Bond’s finding, Chinese generally hold the same stereotype about liars with that of the westerners; but it seems that Chinese rely significantly less on gaze-aversion as a cue to lying, and they concern more about senders’ motivation and emotion. It is also found that confidence about their detection ability among Chinese is lower than westerners. A further study on different professions and their view about lying behaviors shows that people in law-enforcement and related professions generally hold a more accurate view toward how liars behave. Possible explanations to the above mentioned findings in view of culture differences, aspects to be improved in this study and direction of future research are discussed in the later part of the thesis.

从赌博游戏中的损失厌恶行为看情感预测与体验在决策中的作用

In Kermer, Driver-Linn, Wilson and Gilbert’s (2006) study on affective forecast, they found that people have a tendency to overestimate affective reactions in gains and losses, and people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains of equal magnitude. Because of thus affective forecasting error, people prefer to irrationally avoid losses. Loss aversion is then seen as both a wealth-maximizing error and an affect-maximizing error. The present study examined the relationships among affective forecast, affective experience and loss aversion, and tested Kermer et al.’s (2006) conclusion that people’s loss aversion is an affective forecasting error. In experiment 1, we examined the relationship between affective forecast and loss aversion. Kermer et al.’s (2006) hypothesized that when people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains, they will accept the gambling task, and when people expect gains to have greater hedonic impact than losses, they will refuse the gambling task. We found that (1) individuals with lower loss aversion had a greater tendency to accept a gambling task than those with higher loss aversion; (2) individuals with lower loss aversion expected losses and gains to have smaller affective impacts than those with higher loss aversion. Thus, people never exactly calculated their forecasting affective. In experiment 2, we examined the relationship between affective forecast and affective experience. Consistent with Kermer et al.’s (2006) finding, we found that our participants tended to overestimate affective reactions in gains as well as losses. More interestingly, Kermer et al.’s (2006) found that participants’ predictions for a loss were significantly more distant from experienced emotions than were their predictions for a win, we, however, found the opposite —participants’ predictions for a win were significantly more distant from the experienced emotions than were their predictions for a loss. These experiments further validated the relations between affection and decision making, and contributed to our understanding on the affective reactions to future events. Our study imply that it was not the exact calculation of affective forecast on decision outcomes, but rather the magnitude of affection on outcomes, that influenced people’s affective decision making. It indicated that those with lower magnitude of affection would less like to avoid losses, and thus more like to accept a gambling task.

风险偏好为什么是不稳定的？——后悔调节风险偏好的理论探索

Emotion is one of the most popular spots in recent decision making research, while regret is always being considered as the most relevant emotion with decision making. Current article firstly reviewed the literature of regret theory to date to profile the relation between regret and decision making under uncertainty through three mainlines: experienced regret, anticipated regret and regret orientation, respectively. And then, based on the theory of regret regulation raised by Zeelenberg recently, we came up with a theory of risk preference regulated by regret. Then three studies were conducted under the current framework, by using experiment, survey, and quasi experiment design. The major findings were below: In study 1, when playing ultimatum game, risk preference in decision making can be determined by experienced regret and anticipated regret of risk aversion, which made individual risk taking; In study 2, survey showed that risk orientation was negatively related with risk taking (health/safety, recreational and social); In study 3, when asked the Asian Disease Problem, risk preference can be determined by the coherence of the risk preference between the past decision and the current alternative. Individuals much more like alternative with the same risk preference of the past decision. A two way interaction was found, regret orientation, as a personality, was found as a moderator. Individuals with high regret orientation were more sensitive to the coherence of the risk preference than those with low regret orientation. Three studies provide fruitful evidences for the theory of risk preference regulated by regret in different prospective, show us the function of regret in decision making.

海洛因成瘾者决策障碍及其行为机制的研究----短视行为及冲动、强迫和药物在决策中的作用

Addiction can be investigated from the perspective of decision making. Addicts usually make incorrect decisions when facing drug-related cues or they are driven to drugs, resulting in repeated drug seeking and taking. The present study adopted temporal discounting as behavioral task and on the basis of the fact that heroin addicts discounted more steeply than health participants (addicts preferred to choose immediate but smaller reward, regarded as myopia) which was consistent with previous research, three questions was raised and being concentrated on in this study. The first question was whether the character of myopia would be revealed in a somewhat complicated task? We designed a card game in which the participants were tested whether they would play the trump card in order to win a trick but not the whole game. Addicts played the trump card significantly earlier than controls did, indicating they focused on immediate single trick but not the game. Moreover, the performance in the card game and temporal discounting correlated significantly, suggesting addicts would display myopic decision not only in simply task like temporal discounting but also in task more complicated and similar to daily-life decision. Secondly, the present study adopted various kinds of temporal discounting tasks. In previous research, temporal discounting gain task was usually adopted. In the present study, we also adopted temporal discounting loss task. In either gain or loss task, there are two delayed amounts. Results showed in each decision condition addicts made poorer performance compared with control but in larger amount condition, addicts actually improved their decision performance. Meanwhile, addicts did not show loss aversion due to their close discount rates in gain and loss task while for controls, the discount rates were much lower in loss task than those in gain task. Thus we demonstrated that addicts were insensitive to negative outcomes by the method of temporal discounting. Finally, we investigated three mechanisms which exerted impacts on decision making. We adopted Go/NoGo task to test impulsivity and found addicts commits more errors (higher impulsivity) than controls did. We also designed a behavioral task which could be used to test drug-related compulsive behavior on human participants. Results showed addicts produced stereotyped key-pressing behavior when presented with drug-related cues. Furthermore, it was found participants with higher impulsivity displayed poorer performance in decision making but addicts with higher compulsivity only made poorer performance in smaller amount decision and the correlation between compulsivity and decision making was relative weak. In order to investigate the role of susceptibility and effect of drugs, we adopted years of abusing heroin as the indictor and discovered addicts with longer history of heroin abusing made poorer performance in smaller amount condition than addicts with shorter history. Also, the earlier the addicts began to use drug, the worse they would do in the smaller amount decision. The results here indicated drug itself could exert impact on decision making in certain condition. The present study revealed three characters of heroin addicts from the aspect of decision making: (1) focusing upon current benefit due to they preferred to choose immediate gain and delayed loss; (2) showed no loss aversion compared with healthy participants (3) inability to inhibit inappropriate response particularly when facing drug-related cue. These characters contribute to the facts that addicts seek and take drugs repeatedly while ignoring the negative consequences caused by abusing drugs.

企业经营风险决策的组织行为学研究

This thesis has investigated the risk preferences of the Chinese company managers in kinds of simulated decision situations and their perceptions of risk concerning types of business decisions. Four studies are conducted: Study I is utility analysis. 214 company managers and 46 middle - school headmasters have responded to Utility Measurement Survey. The results indicate: (1) The risk preferences of the managers vary in the different decision situations. In most of the situations, most of the managers are risk aversion; In few situations, they are risk-seeking. (2) In some of the decision situations, there are significant differences on risk preference between business managers and school headmasters, male managers and female managers, senior managers and junior managers, managers with high qualifications and managers with low qualifications, non-state-owned firms' managers and state-owned firms' managers, medium-small sized firms' managers and large-sized firms' managers. In the other situations there aren't significant differences between them. (3) In all of the decision situations, so significant differences on risk preference are found among managers with different marriage, experience, age and education. Study II is risky decision simulation. The Risky Decision Situations Simulation Survey is administered to 82 company managers. The result indicates that firm culture, business condition, survival limit and risk preference of the superior influence the managers' risk decision-making behavior. Study III is perceptions of business decision risks. 68 company managers have filled in Decision Cases Risk Perception Inventory. The results indicate: (1) Inaccurate market analysis and prediction, instable politics and the changes of economic policy are the more risky elements to strategy decision. (2) Erroneous market analysis and prediction, appearance of new technology and the changes of market demands are the more risky elements to investment decision. (3) Poor quality control, backward technology and too large stocks are the more risky elements to production decision. (4) Shortage of development fund, wrong choice in development project and limitation of the development ability are the more risky elements to new production development decision. (5) No payment of the foreign partner's capital, the changes of national relevant policy, difficulty in marketing, too high selling prices of foreign partner's equipments are the more risky elements to joint-venture decision. (6) Unfamilarity with oneself and misjudgement in qualification of oneself are the more risky elements to personnel decision. (7) Bad market of the product, defects in product quality and the changes of consumers demands are the more risky elements to marketing decision. (8) Wrong strategy and ambiguous goals are the more risky elements to public relation decision. (9) Violation of the law, ambiguous goals and poor creation are the more risky elements to advertisement decision. (10) Deterioration of diplomatic relations, unsuitable products for foreign consumers and unfamilarity with foreign market are the more risky elements to international business decision. Study IV is structured interview. 5 company managers have answered all questions of the Interview Questionnaire. The results indicate: (1) The managers think that risks are the possible unfavourable consequences of decisions; (2) The self-ratings of the managers coordinate with the results of utility measurement; (3) The managers admit that risks always accompany bussiness decision; (4) Individual difference is found among managers on risk perception. This thesis has also pointed out the important implications of the research and discussed several further questions.

条件反射性免疫抑制及其脑机制的c-fos研究

To explore the neural mechanisms underlying conditioned immunomodulation, this study employed the classical taste aversion (CTA) behavioral paradigm to establish the conditioned humoral and cellular immunosuppression (CIS) in Wistar rats, by paring saccharin (CS) with intraperitoneal (i.p.) injection of an immunosuppressive drug cyclophophamide (UCS). C-fos immunohistochemistry method was used to observe the changes of the neuronal activities in the rat brain during the acquisition, expression and extinction of the conditioned immunosuppression (CIS). The followings are the main results: 1. Five days after one trial of CS-UCS paring, reexposure to CS alone significantly decreased the level of the anti-ovalbumin (OVA) IgG in the peripheral serum. Two trials of CS-UCS paring and three reexposures to CS not only resulted in further suppression of the primary immune response, but also reduced the numbers of peripheral lymphocytes and white blood cells. This finding indicates that CS can induce suppression of the immune function, and the magnitude of the effects is dependent on the intensity of training. 2. On day 5 following two trials of CS-UCS pairing, CS suppressed the spleen lymphocytes responsiveness to mitogens ConA, PHA and PWM, and decreased the numbers of peripheral lymphocytes and white blood cells. On day 15, only PHA induced lymphocyte proliferation was suppressed by CS. On day 30, presentation of CS did not have any effect on these immune parameters. These results suggest that the conditioned suppression of the cellular immune function can retain 5-15 days, and extinct after 30 days. 3. CTA was easily induced by one or two CS-UCS parings, and remained robust even after 30 days. These data demonstrate that CIS can be dissociated from CTA, and they may be mediated by different neural mechanisms. 4. Immunohistochemistry assays revealed a broad pattern of c-fos expression throughout the rat brain following the CS-UCS pairing and reexposure to CS, suggesting that many brain regions are involved in CIS. Some brain areas including the solitary tract nucleus (Sol), lateral parabrachial nucleus (LPB) and insular cortex (IC), showed high level c-fos expressions in response to both CS and UCS, suggesting that they may be involved in the transmission and integration of the CS and UCS signals in the brain. There were dense c-FOS positive neurons in the paraverntricular nucleus (PVN) and supraoptic nucleus (SO) of hypothalamus, subfornical organ (SFO) and area postrema (AP) etc. after two trials of CS-UCS paring and after the reexposure to CS 5 days later, but not in the first training and after the extinction of CIS (30 days later). The results reflect that these nuclei may have an important role in CIS expression, and may also response to the immunosuppression of UCS. The conditioned training and reexposure to CS 5 days later induced high level c-fos expression in the cingulate cortex (Cg), central amygdaloid nucleus (Ce), intermediate part of lateral septal nucleus (LSI) and ventrolateral parabrachial nucleus (VLPB) etc. But c-fos induction was not apparent when presenting CS 30 days later. These brain regions are mainly involved in CIS, and may be critical structures in the acquisition and expression of CIS. Some brain regions, including the frontal cortex (Fr), ventral orbital cortex (VO), IC, perirhinal cortex (PRh), LPB and the medial part of solitary nucleus (SolM), showed robust c-FOS expression following the conditioning training and reexposure to CS both on day 5 and day 30, suggesting that they are critically involved in CTA.