风险偏好为什么是不稳定的？——后悔调节风险偏好的理论探索

Emotion is one of the most popular spots in recent decision making research, while regret is always being considered as the most relevant emotion with decision making. Current article firstly reviewed the literature of regret theory to date to profile the relation between regret and decision making under uncertainty through three mainlines: experienced regret, anticipated regret and regret orientation, respectively. And then, based on the theory of regret regulation raised by Zeelenberg recently, we came up with a theory of risk preference regulated by regret. Then three studies were conducted under the current framework, by using experiment, survey, and quasi experiment design. The major findings were below: In study 1, when playing ultimatum game, risk preference in decision making can be determined by experienced regret and anticipated regret of risk aversion, which made individual risk taking; In study 2, survey showed that risk orientation was negatively related with risk taking (health/safety, recreational and social); In study 3, when asked the Asian Disease Problem, risk preference can be determined by the coherence of the risk preference between the past decision and the current alternative. Individuals much more like alternative with the same risk preference of the past decision. A two way interaction was found, regret orientation, as a personality, was found as a moderator. Individuals with high regret orientation were more sensitive to the coherence of the risk preference than those with low regret orientation. Three studies provide fruitful evidences for the theory of risk preference regulated by regret in different prospective, show us the function of regret in decision making.

情绪是近期的决策领域的研究热点之一，后悔又是与决策联系最紧密的情绪问题，本文在回顾后悔研究的理论及相关文献，特别是基于Zeelenberg的后悔调节理论的基础上，从体验后悔，预期后悔和后悔倾向三条主线出发，探索后悔与风险决策的关系，分别采用行为实验，问卷调查和剧情实验的研究方法，获得了如下研究结果： 第一，在行为实验中，当被试玩最后通牒游戏时，风险规避的体验后悔和预期后悔能够影响决策者的风险偏好，让其更加追逐风险； 第二、在问卷调查中，后悔倾向和风险倾向（安全健康，休闲娱乐，以及社交三个子领域）有明显的负相关； 第三，在剧情实验中，当被试面对亚洲疾病问题时，现在决策与过去决策的风险偏好异同将影响个体现在决策的风险偏好，对于与过去决策的风险偏好相同的选项，个体的选择意愿高于与过去决策的风险偏好不同的选项。研究发现，后悔倾向对该关系存在调节作用——对于后悔倾向高的个体，现在决策和过去决策的风险偏好异同对于风险偏好的影响大于其对后悔倾向低的个体的影响。 第四、三个研究分别从三个不同的侧面对研究者提出的后悔调节风险偏好的理论进行了验证，揭示了后悔在决策过程中的作用，为理论的建构提供了实证证据。