Medidas de risco extraídas de opções sobre petróleo

Bali, Cakici e Chabi-Yo (2011) introduziram uma nova medida de risco, englobando as medidas de risco de Aumann e Serrano (2008) e Foster e Hart (2009). Trata-se de um modelo de medida de risco implícito de opções baseado na distribuição neutra ao risco dos retornos de ativos financeiros. Este trabalho se propõe a calcular a medida de risco de Bali, Cakici e Chabi-Yo (2011) com base nas opções de petróleo, a commodity mais importante da economia mundial. Como os preços das opções incorporam a expectativa do mercado, a medida de risco calculada é considerada forward-looking. Desta forma, esse trabalho também analisa a significância dessa medida em prever a atividade econômica futura. Os resultados indicaram poder preditivo em relação ao índice VIX, o qual representa a incerteza do mercado financeiro, e ao índice CFNAI, indicador da atividade econômica norte-americana.

Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social

Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.

Ensaios em economia política aplicada

Esta tese é constituída por três capítulos que se enquadram na área de Microeconomia Aplicada, sendo dois deles de Economia Política Aplicada e o outro de Economia da Educação. O primeiro capítulo investiga se a eleição de mulheres para a prefeitura impacta a inserção de outras mulheres no mercado político, reduzindo-se assim uma preferência pré-estabelecida pelos eleitores de não votar em mulheres. Para realizar o exercício, utiliza-se um experimento de Regressão em Descontinuidade onde explora-se eleições em que uma mulher perdeu ou ganhou por uma margem pequena de votos para um candidato homem, a ponto do gênero eleito ser aleatório. Os resultados mostram que a eleição de uma mulher tem impacto apenas em ambientes mais propícios a eleger mulheres (o que foi mensurado aqui pelo percentual de vereadoras eleitas) ou em locais onde os candidatos tinham maior qualidade (medido pela escolaridade). O segundo artigo estima o impacto da divulgação da qualidade escolar sobre a migração dos alunos entre escolas. A ideia é que ao tornar-se público o sinal de qualidade, escolas e alunos têm incentivos para se adaptarem conforme sua demanda por qualidade. Para isso, explora-se um desenho de Regressão em Descontinuidade Fuzzy devido a um dos critérios de divulgação do IDEB ser a escola ter no mínimo 20 alunos matriculados na série avaliada. Os resultados mostram que as escolas que tiveram IDEB divulgado tiveram maior migração de alunos e, em especial, de alunos em condições de vulnerabilidade. O terceiro artigo avalia a hipótese de exogeneidade da abertura comercial brasileira, promovida no final da década de 1980 e início da de 1990. Há uma vasta literatura que explora os efeitos da abertura comercial sobre o mercado de trabalho, desigualdade de renda, pobreza e crescimento econômico. Tais trabalhos consideram o processo de liberalização brasileiro como não correlacionado com as demandas de nenhum setor de atividade econômica específico, o que justificaria utilizar o período de abertura como um instrumento para lidar com endogeneidade nas estimações. Nós apresentamos evidência de que, embora não correlacionado com nenhum setor em especial, a abertura estava correlacionada com a distribuição de capital político dos governos nesse período, e pode ter funcionado como uma estratégica clara de fortalecimento político ou, pelo menos, teve o contexto político como um facilitador do processo.

Política monetária no limite inferior da taxa de juros

A situação conhecida como “Zero Lower Bound” ocorre quando a taxa de juros de curto prazo é muito baixa e os bancos centrais perdem seu principal instrumento de política monetária para estimular a atividade econômica. Nestas condições, políticas não convencionais são utilizadas como a expansão monetária (QE) e comunicados ao mercado sobre as intenções do banco central em um horizonte maior de tempo. O Japão enfrenta esta situação desde a década de 90 e tem utilizado largamente ambas. Após uma revisão da literatura a respeito, este trabalho investiga a eficácia dos QEs praticados pelo BOJ com os dados disponíveis através de autoregressão de vetores e conclui que não há evidência estatística sobre os resultados desejados. Dada a inabilidade de melhorar o crescimento econômico com inflação dentro de uma meta, sugere que trabalhos que conclusões robustas estatisticamente devem estar sujeitos à crítica de Lucas

A transição para a assimetria regulatória e os mecanismos de sustentabilidade deste modelo: uma análise dos aeroportos concedidos e dos aeroportos autorizados

O presente estudo destina-se à análise do modelo de assimetria regulatória, a partir de dois problemas pontuais, quais sejam: os mecanismos necessários para se obter um ambiente assimétrico, bem como a maneira pela qual se deve orquestrar tal modelo, de forma a compatibilizar uma convivência sustentável em uma estrutura híbrida de competição. Observar-se-á a maneira pela qual pode ser promovida a alteração de um ambiente de simetria regulatória para um ambiente de assimetria, resguardando os direitos e obrigações dos prestadores de determinada atividade, inseridos naquela seara. Ademais, buscar-se-á sugerir instrumentos legais para se permitir a composição de dois meios de exploração de determinada atividade econômica, um que se dê segundo o direito público (publicatio); e outro, que se relacione com o direito privado (ordenatio); compreendendo assim, a dita assimetria regulatória. A título ilustrativo, adentrar-se-á na verificação da medida provisória (MP) 656/14 - a qual previa um possível modelo em que se teria duas ofertas de infraestrutura aeroportuária - para melhor exemplificar como, juridicamente, pode-se viabilizar esta disposição de prestação dual, via poder público (ou delegatários), segundo a forma de concessão; e iniciativa privada, segundo a forma de autorização.

A relação entre aglomeração produtiva e crescimento: a aplicação de um modelo multinível ao setor industrial paulista

Este estudo identificou a relação da aglomeração de firmas de uma mesma atividade econômica na taxa de crescimento do emprego local. Dados das firmas industriais do Estado de São Paulo constantes da Relação Anual de Informações Sociais [RAIS] nos anos de 1996 a 2005 foram coletados. Foram analisadas 263.020 observações de nível de emprego de 26.231 combinações de município-CNAE e 296 diferentes atividades. Os critérios de Puga (2003) e Suzigan, Furtado, Garcia, Sampaio (2003) foram usados para identificar as aglomerações. Uma análise de curva de crescimento, usando-se um modelo multinível, foi desenvolvida no software Hierarchical Linear Models [HLM]. Os resultados evidenciam que existe uma relação positiva entre aglomeração de firmas de uma mesma atividade econômica e o crescimento de emprego. Considerando as externalidades previstas pelo fato de as empresas estarem localizadas em uma mesma região, pode-se sugerir que, em termos comparativos, firmas de uma mesma atividade econômica, localizadas em aglomeração, podem, perceber crescimento maior que suas concorrentes localizadas fora de um aglomerado. Este resultado é relevante, tanto para a empresa individual, como para o estabelecimento de políticas públicas que apóiam o desenvolvimento regional, no nível do município. As evidências confirmam estudos anteriores de caso, permitindo dar mais robustez à teoria

Burocracia e comércio exterior: os desafios à exportação sob a ótica das micro e pequenas empresas exportadoras do rio grande do norte

As micro e pequenas empresas, ao mesmo tempo em que exercem um papel extremamente relevante na estrutura produtiva da economia brasileira pelo grande número de empreendedores existentes e expressivo volume de pessoal ocupado, perdem competitividade ao se deparar com entraves ao seu desenvolvimento, sejam eles em âmbito gerencial, financeiro, burocrático ou estrutural. Com base nesse contexto, o estudo procura identificar em que medida, na percepção das MPEs exportadoras do Rio Grande do Norte, as exigências burocráticas do processo exportador afetam o seu desempenho no comércio exterior. Como exigências burocráticas compreende-se o conjunto de normas, regras e procedimentos e documentos que disciplinam o processo exportador, enquanto desempenho é entendido como os resultados da atividade econômica medido através do crescimento das vendas para o mercado externo; das demandas de produtos exportados não atendidas e da ampliação do mercado internacional. A pesquisa realizada é de caráter censitário, desenvolvida junto a quatorze MPEs do estado, atuantes regularmente no comércio exterior nos últimos três anos (2009-2011), utilizando aplicação de questionário, assim como uma consulta a dados secundários disponíveis. A análise dos dados levantados revelou que, efetivamente, na percepção dos respondentes, fatores externos como o custo do processo de exportação, falta de incentivo do governo, excesso de controle dos órgãos públicos e a infraestrutura logística do estado exercem influência na pequena participação das MPEs nas exportações do Brasil e do Nordeste, enquanto o bom desempenho exportador destas relaciona-se a fatores gerenciais, com destaque para investimentos na estrutura organizacional da empresa, conhecimento do mercado internacional e bom relacionamento com clientes e mercados

O terciário (re) desenhando a periferia: a região administrativa norte de Natal/RN, na última década do século XX, servicializada na Av. Dr. João Medeiros Filho

The tertiary sector has been (re)defining and (re)qualifying, in an impacting way, the urban spaces in the cities, introducing new elements for the discussion of the relationship center/periphery. In Natal, as an inducing economic activity of its development, it conforms to the new needs of the capital, expanding, being materialized through several processes and spatial forms. We aim at analyzing one of those processes, which has taken its Northern Administrative Area to (re)define the design of its urban space, through the actions developed by the agents involved with the spatialization of the tertiary activities, at the same time as it redimensions its role as a periphery of Natal, contributing to the study of the recent and growing transformations of the Brazilian capitals. The studied district corresponds to 39.4% of the municipal area and, until recently, was composed by precarious reproduction spaces, unprovided of relevant economical activities. After the boom of the development of extensive housing complexes by SFH/BNH, the area, gradually stopped being a dependent area, and it imposed itself as an economically participant region, with the increase of the trade and services sectors, as well as a favorable place for the appearance of new activities. Its reflexes are noticeable in the achieved spatial configuration. As the main road to induct changes, Dr. João Medeiros Filho Avenue presents these new tendencies in the production of the intraurban space, concentrating the largest goods and services equipments of the area, through investments of the private and public sectors, which guarantee the capital allocation for the construction of a new centrality

De gata borralheira a Cinderela :nova espacialidade decorrente do desenvolvimento turístico, diferenciada pelo estilo de vida em Ponta Negra, Natal, RN

The transformations economical, social and politics in you finish them decades of the century XX brought changes that didn't just limit to the production system. The flexible accumulation took many workers lost her/it their workstations and they look for her/it new survival forms, migrating for administrative activities, of services rendered and for the tourist activity of small and medium load. The State has been investing in the implantation of plans of tourist development in order to create favorable conditions for the reproduction of the tourist activity in Brazil, mainly in the Northeast. A space when it starts to present a predominant economical activity suffers a restructuring in their social and economical relationships. The restructuring of these relationships takes to the construction of a new espacialidade. In the city of Christmas, in Rio Grande do Norte, the neighborhood of Black Tip is the most representative of the public investments for the tourist development. After intense process of tourist urbanization, Black Tip passed interfering in the global context consolidating as the tourist locus in the city. The tourist urbanization of the neighborhood took to the transformation of the space in merchandise that is sold and consumed as such. The recreation of fragments of other cultures brought by social actors, resulting from migratory processes stimulated by the tourist development, it has been presenting ruled social relationships in the informational technology, consumption of global goods and in the fragmentation of the urban space characterized by the internationalization and cosmopolitização. That process has been masking the inequalities partners and cultural as well as the territorial appropriation for an economical elite. The spaces are being appropriate for investors of the tourist section, private investors, agents and real estate producers, where the inequality is not just economical, but also cultural. The local population, mainly of the urban fraction of the Town of Black Tip, it doesn't participate of the productive process in function of the little or any professional qualification and he/she doesn't also have access to the consumption process. To the native ones it remains the fight for the preservation of his/her cultural identity and for the survival

A corretagem de imóveis no Rio Grande do Norte: das práticas históricas à emergência como segmento integrante da fração imobiliária do capital

This research proposed to question the development of what was defined as historical practices (commercial, social and political institutions), of the economic activity of the real estate brokerage in the Rio Grande do Norte from the progressive institutionalization of economic agents - individuals (realtors) and legal (real estate) - based on two main approaches: a) the development of economic activity as an integral segment of a fraction of capital (POULANTZAs, 1985; LESSA, 1981). This work set out from a socio-historical approach of the historical practices development the of real estate brokerage in Brazil started in the Southeast, especially in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo as a result of the "expansion of capitalist relations by the housing sector" (RIBEIRO , 1996). especially the real estate capital ; b) the historical development of relations between labor and capital within the activity, in other words, the development of the relationship between realtors and Real Estate in relation to "group of interests" and their "collective actions" (OFFE, 1984). These historical practices are defined in this research as: 1) mercantile practices, times when there was no distinction between the activity of real estate brokerage and other forms of mercantile capital; 2) social practices, which began in the 1930s, when agents of real estate are to be distinguished from each other within the activity through Taylorist division of labor between workers realtors and developers of real estate; 3) political and institutional practices, initiated in 1962, characterized by State action, in the individualization and distinction of the agents of real estate brokerage as socioprofessional category regulated throughout Brazil by Law 4.116/62 and 6.530/78. The results achieved by the present study showed that in Rio Grande do Norte, due to the specifics as to the peripheral processes of urbanization of the constitution of the land market, as well as the process of conservative modernization of the oligarchic State from the 1960s (CLEMENTINE, 1995; FERREIRA, 1996, 2010, TRINDADE, 2004), the State was led to the development of a late manifestation of the historical practices of real estate brokerage. In other words, it was a process in which historical practices, in particular social practices, not fully developed, mitigating, thus the perception of realtors from his position in the process of exploitation of labor by the Real Estate. And, as a result, of their collective interests front of them.

Histórias e relatos sobre Pipa: a praia internacional do Rio Grande do Norte

The overwhelming gear that boosted tourism as the main economic activity of Pipa a district formerly agricultural and fishery, that belongs to the municipality of Tibau do Sul/RN produced significant changes in the social, economic and cultural rights of the native population of the place where social relations were narrow and justified in some cases, the line of kinship in an environment where all residents knew each other. However, we can not observe the emergence of this activity just as voracious disarticulator of old local forms of sociability that in a linear process, destroys the old, replacing it with the new. New compositions are generated by merging elements of past and present. Overcoming opposition to simplistic positive or negative impacts of tourism sought especially in this dissertation, review the history of Pipa (told in narrative form), showing how slowly this district has become a major international tourist destination and how its residents were being swallowed by the "whirlwind" that led to this reality. The research used qualitative methodology and was based on photographic, literature and survey, observation, experience, oral and written reports acquired in the field. We conducted in-depth interviews (oral history) with subjects that are the living memory of the place local residents (mostly natives). We found that before the process of "modernization" resulting from the pressure of globalization itself and the capital investment in tourism resulting from the native population is not passive. On the contrary, natives resist, creating mechanisms of material and symbolic reformulations. The present moment is always dynamic. Because of that, the identity of a place is not the crystallization of its past. Many landscapes still reveal materialities of yesteryear, such as registration of social practices in the construction of the place

O dumping ambiental no setor sucroalcooleiro à luz do princípio da livre concorrência

The goal of this study is to investigate about the existence or absence of environmental dumping in the production of fuel ethanol in Brazil, as well as identifying the reasons why the figure of ecological dumping is pernicious to the principles enumerated in constitutional economic order, in particular the principle of free competition. In the twenty-first century environmental issues gained momentum and importance in these terms, which was seen as a mere fallacy given the concern of governments of various countries, after all, environmental protection shows up as the only means of bringing about the maintenance of life at planet. Indeed, it is essential to halt the drastic effects of climate change, and think fast and efficient solutions. Undoubtedly, the contemporary requirements that resulted in the transition to a new economy brings with it the duty of enterprise search for sustainability, and this behavior can not be passive, otherwise it is imperative to work hard and incessant economic agents, even if initially costs are high, this step will ensure a production accountable, transparent and free from accusations of environmental degradation. It is also intended to study the importance of the sector not only as a source of economic growth, but mainly, its contribution to national development, without forgetting that this is devoted in the Constitution of 1988 as one of the objectives of the Federative Republic of Brazil. In fact, the criticism most common perceptions about the production of biofuels, said the interests of the countries producing them in large scale, will eventually generate a exhaustion of soil and a significant increase in food prices. However, the ethanol produced in Brazil is unique in that it is produced from cane sugar, a product is not intended for human or animal, not to mention that the recovery of land just to the rotation with the planting other cultures. It is expected that environmental certifications are useful to demonstrate the quality of ethanol for export and to refute unfounded criticism. Finally, this study will be analyzed further solutions for the plants to develop an economic activity without damaging the environment and in compliance with Brazilian law

A tutela constitucional da exploração de petróleo em águas internacionais em face do princípio do desenvolvimento sustentável: a possibilidade de responsabilização civil do dano futuro

The demands brought by a society doomed to the constant production of global risks, which whose effects are not immediately noticed effects are not perceived immediately, claim from the Law a new Theory about the Risk, that would offer a broad environmental protection, at the same time it would still be compatible with the idea of economic efficiency, required by the Modern Industry. The expansion of the methods and technologies regarding the exploitation and production of oil causes the constant expansion of the exploitable boundaries, especially in ultra-deep waters with the Pre-salt layer, in Brazil, or the still incipient research about the polymetallic nodules and other mineral sources in international waters, like the Atlântico Sudoeste, by the Programme on Ocean Science in Relation do Non Living Resources (OSNLR), a global study performed in partnership with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, from UNESCO (IOC UNESCO) and also with the Division of Ocean Affairs and Law of the Sea (UNDOALOS). Thus, we aim to analyze the correlation, and possible collisions between the right to a balanced environment and the free exercise of economic activity and the occurrence of environmental damages from the perspective of the exploitation activities of oil and other natural resources in international waters, specifically in the Area, from the constitutional principle of sustainable development and its legitimacy by the environmental international protection. Therefore, this study also aims to evaluate the legal framework for exploration and production of oil in international waters, particularly in the Area, and appraise how the constitutional instruments and mechanisms for environmental protection can impact on the international environmental protection system in order to ensure the present and future generations an ecologically balanced environment, laid down in Article 225 of the Brazilian Constitution, even with so many risks posed by the activities of exploitation and production of oil in international waters. In the meantime, we intend to also intend to investigate the possibility of future liability for environmental damage in order to ensure that constitutional principle and, consequently, and try to define the concept of environmental damage and its implications on the constitutional principle of environmental protection. Given all that was in summary, this work aims to contribute to the evolution of the new Theory of Environmental Risk, turning the law into something more than a punitive or corrective element in this society, but into a legal risk management, that may be triggered even before the consolidation of the damage

As zonas de processamento de exportação como instrumento de desenvolvimento e redução das desigualdades regionais

The existence of inequalities among the Brazilian regions is an indeed fact along the country s history. Before this reality the constitutional legislator inserted into the Federal Constitution of 1988, as a purpose of the Federative Republic of Brazil, the reduction of regional inequalities. The development has also been included as a purpose from the State, because there is an straight relation with the reduction of regional inequalities. In both situations is searched the improvement of people s living conditions. . In pursuit of this achievement, the State must implement public policy, and, for this to happen, it needs the ingress of income inside of the public coffers and support of economic agents, therefore the importance of constitucionalization of the economic policy. The 1988 s Constitution adopted a rational capitalism regime consentaneous with current legal and social conceptions, that s why it enabled the State s intervention into economy to correct the so-called market failures or to make the established objectives fulfilled. About this last one, the intervention may happen by induction through the adoption of regulatory Standards of incentive or disincentive of economic activity. Among the possible inductive ways there are the tax assessments that aim to stimulate the economic agents behavior in view of finding that the development doesn t occur with the same intensity in all of the country s regions. Inside this context there are the Export Processing Zones (EPZs) which are special areas with different customs regime by the granting of benefits to the companies that are installed there. The EPZs have been used, by several countries, in order to develop certain regions, and economic indicators show that they promoted economic and social changes in the places where they are installed, especially because, by attracting companies, they provide job creation, industrialization and increased exports. In Brazil, they can contribute decisively to overcome major obstacles or decrease the attraction of economic agents and economic development of the country. In the case of an instrument known to be effective to achieve the goals established by the Constitution, it is duty of the Executive to push for the law that governs this customs regime is effectively applied. If the Executive doesn t fulfill this duty, incurs into unjustifiable omission, correction likely by the Judiciary, whose mission is to prevent acts or omissions contrary to constitutional order

Planejamento tributário: Critérios e limites para a desconsideração dos atos e negócios jurídicos pela administração fiscal

Tax planning is a subject that has been increasing in relevance in Tax Law. This current dissertation s objective is to approach the criterion and limits for the disqualification of law acts and business through the Tax Administration. Law acts and business resulted from the conduct of contributors that seek to diminish the growing raise of the tax load, using some means to reduce their burden and increase the possibilities of success in an economical activity, without violating the law in the persecution of paying fewer burdens. On the other hand, the tax administration, through its organs, hoping the increase of burden collection to withstand some determined sectors of the State, with a clear purpose to stop the contributor organizing his activity and structuring it as efficiently as possible, came up with a preliminary draft which left Complementary Law 104, from 10.02.2001, enacted, that inserted the unique paragraph of the National Tax Code, article 116, authorizing the disregard, by the administrative fiscal authority, of Law acts and business practiced to dissimulate the occurrence of burden gain or the nature of obligated incorporating elements, observing the procedures to be established in common law . Our goal is to identify the criteria and limits to disregard law acts and business through the tax administration, pointing out some possible means of action by the tax administration that qualifies it to disregard the contributor s acts and business, just claiming that a saving in the tax costs was made by the contributor s act