Evaluating and improving demand forecast practices for B2B and B2C sectors

Demand forecasting is one of the fundamental managerial tasks. Most companies do not know their future demands, so they have to make plans based on demand forecasts. The literature offers many methods and approaches for producing forecasts. Former literature points out that even though many forecasting methods and approaches are available, selecting a suitable approach and implementing and managing it is a complex cross-functional matter. However, it’s relatively rare that researches are focused on the differences in forecasting between consumer and industrial companies. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the potential of improving demand forecasting practices for B2B and B2C sectors in the global supply chains. Business to business (B2B) sector produces products for other manufacturing companies. On the other hand, consumer (B2C) sector provides goods for individual buyers. Usually industrial sector have a lower number of customers and closer relationships with them. The research questions of this thesis are: 1) What are the main differences and similarities in demand planning between B2B and B2C sectors? 2) How the forecast performance for industrial and consumer companies can be improved? The main methodological approach in this study is design science, where the main objective is to develop tentative solutions to real-life problems. The research data has been collected from a case company. Evaluation and improving in organizing demand forecasting can be found in three interlinked areas: 1) demand planning operational environment, 2) demand forecasting techniques, 3) demand information sharing scenarios. In this research current B2B and B2C demand practices are presented with further comparison between those two sectors. It was found that B2B and B2C sectors have significant differences in demand practices. This research partly filled the theoretical gap in understanding the difference in forecasting in consumer and industrial sectors. In all these areas, examples of managerial problems are described, and approaches for mitigating these problems are outlined.

Properties advanced of the silicon nitride based ceramics and recent performance on automotive parts manufacture by machining process: Advanced Ceramics, demand Forecast

Automotive parts manufacture by machining process using silicon nitride-based ceramic tool development in Brazil already is a reality. Si 3N4-based ceramic cutting tools offer a high productivity due to their excellent hot hardness, which allows high cutting speeds. Under such conditions the cutting tool must be resistant to a combination of mechanical, thermal and chemical attacks. Silicon nitride based ceramic materials constitute a mature technology with a very broad base of current and potential applications. The best opportunities for Si3N 4-based ceramics include ballistic armor, composite automotive brakes, diesel particulate filters, joint replacement products and others. The goal of this work was to show latter advance in silicon nitride manufacture and its recent evolution on machining process of gray cast iron, compacted graphite iron and Ti-6Al-4V. Materials characterization and machining tests were analyzed by X-Ray Diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscopy, Vickers hardness and toughness fracture and technical norm. In recent works the authors has been proved to advance in microstructural, mechanical and physic properties control. These facts prove that silicon nitride-based ceramic has enough resistance to withstand the impacts inherent to the machining of gray cast iron (CI), compacted graphite iron (CGI) and Ti-6Al-4V (6-4). Copyright © 2008 SAE International.

GIS-based analytical tools for transport planning: spatial regression models for transportation demand forecast

Considering the importance of spatial issues in transport planning, the main objective of this study was to analyze the results obtained from different approaches of spatial regression models. In the case of spatial autocorrelation, spatial dependence patterns should be incorporated in the models, since that dependence may affect the predictive power of these models. The results obtained with the spatial regression models were also compared with the results of a multiple linear regression model that is typically used in trips generation estimations. The findings support the hypothesis that the inclusion of spatial effects in regression models is important, since the best results were obtained with alternative models (spatial regression models or the ones with spatial variables included). This was observed in a case study carried out in the city of Porto Alegre, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the stages of specification and calibration of the models, with two distinct datasets.

The demand-supply balancing process in supply chain management - case mining & metals industry equipment

The aim of this thesis is to search how to match the demand and supply effectively in industrial and project-oriented business environment. The demand-supply balancing process is searched through three different phases: the demand planning and forecasting, synchronization of demand and supply and measurement of the results. The thesis contains a single case study that has been implemented in a company called Outotec. In the case study the demand is planned and forecasted with qualitative (judgmental) forecasting method. The quantitative forecasting methods are searched further to support the demand forecast and long term planning. The sales and operations planning process is used in the synchronization of the demand and supply. The demand forecast is applied in the management of a supply chain of critical unit of elemental analyzer. Different meters on operational and strategic level are proposed for the measurement of performance.

The impact of Portuguese demographic changes on the demand and supply of blood in the region of Algarve

Dissertação de Mastrado, Gestão de Unidades de Saúde, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Gestão de stocks aplicada a uma instituição de saúde privada

A gestão de stocks tem-se tornado uma ferramenta fundamental na racionalização de custos das empresas permitindo uma maior eficiência operacional. Os modelos de gestão de stocks procuram ajudar a determinar as quantidades a encomendar e quando encomendar, com um custo total de aprovisionamento mínimo. Este trabalho visa o estudo da gestão de stocks, dos modelos existentes e a aplicação de um deles num prestador de saúde, em particular, na área da imagiologia. Neste estudo optou-se por efectuar a classificação ABC dos produtos e posteriormente procurou-se definir o modelo de gestão de stocks que melhor se adeqúe à realidade empresarial em estudo de modo a manter o nível de stock correcto associado a um menor custo. Optou-se pelo modelo de revisão periódica de stocks que permite efectuar a encomenda sempre com o mesmo intervalo de tempo e efectuar ajustes nas quantidades necessárias. Com base nos dados fornecido efectuou-se uma previsão da procura e assim definiram-se as quantidades a encomendar, bem como o stock de segurança necessário. Implementaram-se as quantidades e o stock de segurança e efectuou-se uma avaliação dos resultados obtidos e analisou-se o impacto da gestão de stocks no prestador de saúde.

An internal analysis of Amorim Turismo’s operations regarding food and beverage with a focus on operational efficiency and quality of service

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Uuden täydennysyhteistyömallin toteuttaminen: vaikutukset toimittajayritykseen

Pärjätäkseen nykypäivän kiristyvässä kilpailussa yritysten on kuuluttava kilpailukykyiseen toimitusketjuun ja toimittava yhteistyössä muiden yritysten kanssa. Yksi tunnetuimmista yhteistyömenetelmistä on täydennysyhteistyö, jossa toimittaja vastaa toimitusten suunnittelusta ilman perinteistä tilaus-toimitus-prosessia. Täydennysyhteistyöstä käytetään eri nimityksiä toimialasta ja toimitusketjun portaasta riippuen, mutta yleisellä tasolla on kyse samoista periaatteista: toimittajalla on vastuu varaston täydentämisestä ja sillä on käytössään täydennyspäätöksiin tarvittavaa tietoa. Työssä tarkastellaan tapausta, jossa toimittaja on ottanut käyttöön uuden täydennysyhteistyöhön liittyvän toimintatavan ja täydennystoimitusten laskentaan käytettävän työkalun. Tavoitteena on selvittää uuden täydennysyhteistyömallin käyttöönoton vaikutukset toimittajan näkökulmasta. Kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla kartoitetaan täydennystoimitusten suunnitteluun vaikuttavat tekijät. Työssä kuvataan vanha ja uusi täydennysyhteistyömalli ja niitä vertaillaan keskenään. Uuden tyädennysyhteistyömallin vaikutuksia tutkitaan kolmella tasolla: yhteistyön mahdollistajat, suunnittelu ja prosessit sekä suorituskyky. Tutkimuksen perusteella uuden täydennysyhteistyömallin etuja ovat muun muassa tiedon käsittelyn nopeus ja helppous. Puutteeksi koetaan toimitussuunnitelman muuttamisen hankaluus työkalussa. Vaikka lähes kaikkien tutkimusotoksen tuotteiden keskimääräiset varastotasot olivat alentuneet uuden täydennysyhteistyömallin käyttöönoton jälkeen, varastotavoitteiden saavuttaminen ei ollut parantunut. Tuloksiin vaikuttavat useattekijät, joista tärkeimpiä ovat kysynnän vaihtelu ja volyymi sekä varastotavoite. Lisäksi ennustetarkkuus vaikuttaa toimitusten suunnitteluun ja siten varastonsuorituskykyyn.

Merchandising Strategies and Retail Performance for Seasonal Fashion Products

This study presents mathematical methods for evaluation of retail performance with special regard to product sourcing strategies. Forecast accuracy, process lead time, offshore / local sourcing mix and up front / replenishment buying mix are defined as critical success factors in connection with sourcing seasonal products with a fashion content. As success measures, this research focuses on service level, lost sales, product substitute percentage, gross margin, gross margin return on inventory and mark down rate. The accuracy of demand forecast is found to be a fundamental success factor. Forecast accuracy depends on lead time. Lead times are traditionally long and buying decisions are made seven to eight months prior to the start of the selling season. Forecast errors cause stockouts and lost sales. Some of the products bought for the selling season will not be sold and have to be marked down and sold at clearance, causing loss of gross margin. Gross margin percentage is not the best tool for evaluating sourcing decisions and in the context of this study gross margin return on inventory, which combines profitability and assets management, is used. The findings of this research suggest that there are more profitable ways of sourcing products than buying them from low cost offshore sources. Mixing up front and inseason replenishment deliveries, especially when point of sale information is used for improving forecast accuracy, results in better retail performance. Quick Response and Vendor Managed Inventory strategies yield better results than traditional up front buying from offshore even if local purchase prices are higher. Increasing the number of selling seasons, slight over buying for the season in order to

Kuivatuotetoimitusketjun kehittäminen

Diplomityön tarkoituksena on selvittää kuivatuotetoimitusketjun haasteet ja kehittää toimintaan parannuskeinoja. Kuivatuotetoimitusketjun kehittämisessä pyritään varmistamaan tärkeimpien asiakkaiden tilauksien toimitusvarmuus sekä parantamaan asiakkailta saatavaa kysyntätietoa. Näistä kahdesta osa-alueesta muodostuu kokonaisuus, jonka avulla parannetaan toimitusketjun suorituskykyä. Työn tuloksena kysynnän ennustettavuutta kehitetään lähtötilanteesta toteutetulla kysyntäennustelomakkeella, jonka avulla kerätään tietoa tärkeimpien asiakkaiden tulevasta kysynnästä. Analyyseissä valmisvarastoille määritetään optimitasot, jolloin materiaalinohjausta voidaan hallita systemaattisemmin. Laskelmien yksityiskohtaisia tuloksia ei sisällytetä työhön. Työssä tarkastellaan myös varastotilan riittävyyttä sekä vaihtoehtoja kapasiteetin lisäämiseksi.

Erikoistilanteiden huomiointi päivittäistavarakaupan myymälätäydennyksessä

Päivittäistavarakauppa toimialana vaatii hektisyytensä, volyymien suurten vaihtelujen ja tuotteiden ominaispiirteiden takia nopeaa reagointikykyä toimitusketjun sopeuttamisessa. Tällöin pienikin tarkkuuden parantaminen myyntiennusteessa voi aiheuttaa merkittäviä positiivisia kerrannaisvaikutuksia koko ketjussa. Tässä diplomityössä tutkittiin kahta teemaa: Säätilan ja vähittäismyynnin välistä korrelaatiota, sekä tuotteen kampanjassa olon aiheuttamaa kannibalisointivaikutusta muiden tuotteiden menekkiin. Tutkimus toteutettiin työn tilaajan kannalta merkittäväksi mielletyillä tavararyhmillä historialliseen myynti –, sää- ja kampanjadataan perustuen. Tutkimuksen tuloksena todettiin lämpötilan olevan yksittäinen merkittävin tuotteiden menekkiin vaikuttava sääparametri. Kampanjan aiheuttaman myynnin kannibalisointivaikutuksen havaittiin olevan merkittävintä saman tuotesegmentin sisällä, erityisesti lyhyissä kampanjoissa. Työssä luotiin toimintamallit molempiin tutkittuihin teemoihin ennusteperusteisen tarvesuunnittelujärjestelmän ennustetarkkuuden parantamisen työkaluiksi.

Tuotannon ja varastonhallinnan kehittäminen kysyntäennusteiden avulla

Diplomityön tavoitteena on tutkia kysyntäennusteiden hyödyntämistä valmistavan teollisuusyrityksen tuotannossa ja varastonhallinnassa. Työn alussa esitellään kysynnän tuntemiseen ja ennustamiseen liittyvään teoriaan, jonka jälkeen tutkitaan teorian tarjoamia mahdollisuuksia linkittää kysyntäennusteet tuotannon ja varastonhallinnan avuksi. Työn empiria osassa kuvataan ensin Peikko Group Oy:n kysyntäennusteiden nykytilanne. Tämän jälkeen vertaillaan kahden eri lähestymistavan soveltuvuutta, joilla kohdeyritys voisi mahdollisesti rakentaa tuotannolle ja varastonhallinnalle tarpeellisia kysyntäennusteita päätöksenteon tueksi. Tuotannon kannalta työn keskeisin tulos on kysyntäennusteiden pohjalta muodostettu kuormaennuste ja varastonhallinnan kannalta tarvittavan ennustetarkkuuden määrittäminen, jotta ennusteita voitaisiin hyödyntää varastonohjausparametrien määrityksessä.

Master Plan for Renewable Energy based Electricity Generation in The Gambia

The principal objective of this paper is to develop a methodology for the formulation of a master plan for renewable energy based electricity generation in The Gambia, Africa. Such a master plan aims to develop and promote renewable sources of energy as an alternative to conventional forms of energy for generating electricity in the country. A tailor-made methodology for the preparation of a 20-year renewable energy master plan focussed on electricity generation is proposed in order to be followed and verified throughout the present dissertation, as it is applied for The Gambia. The main input data for the proposed master plan are (i) energy demand analysis and forecast over 20 years and (ii) resource assessment for different renewable energy alternatives including their related power supply options. The energy demand forecast is based on a mix between Top-Down and Bottom-Up methodologies. The results are important data for future requirements of (primary) energy sources. The electricity forecast is separated in projections at sent-out level and at end-user level. On the supply side, Solar, Wind and Biomass, as sources of energy, are investigated in terms of technical potential and economic benefits for The Gambia. Other criteria i.e. environmental and social are not considered in the evaluation. Diverse supply options are proposed and technically designed based on the assessed renewable energy potential. This process includes the evaluation of the different available conversion technologies and finalizes with the dimensioning of power supply solutions, taking into consideration technologies which are applicable and appropriate under the special conditions of The Gambia. The balance of these two input data (demand and supply) gives a quantitative indication of the substitution potential of renewable energy generation alternatives in primarily fossil-fuel-based electricity generation systems, as well as fuel savings due to the deployment of renewable resources. Afterwards, the identified renewable energy supply options are ranked according to the outcomes of an economic analysis. Based on this ranking, and other considerations, a 20-year investment plan, broken down into five-year investment periods, is prepared and consists of individual renewable energy projects for electricity generation. These projects included basically on-grid renewable energy applications. Finally, a priority project from the master plan portfolio is selected for further deeper analysis. Since solar PV is the most relevant proposed technology, a PV power plant integrated to the fossil-fuel powered main electrical system in The Gambia is considered as priority project. This project is analysed by economic competitiveness under the current conditions in addition to sensitivity analysis with regard to oil and new-technology market conditions in the future.

Determinantes de la demanda de turismo en Colombia 2004 2007: seguridad, comercio y otros factores

El turismo es un sector de gran dinamismo en países en desarrollo, casos como México o Perú son modelos latinoamericanos que se han destacado por el desarrollo del sector turístico y en años recientes Colombia ha presentado cifras importantes respecto a los demás países de la región. Aquí se pueden practicar cuatro líneas de turismo potenciales según el Plan Sectorial de Turismo Nacional 2008 2011 Un Destino de Clase Mundial como son el Turismo Ecológico, Cultural, de Salud y de Convenciones y Eventos. El objetivo de este documento es hallar los principales factores que influyeron en la llegada mensual de viajeros extranjeros a Colombia en el periodo 2004 2007 a través de la estimación de modelos de panel de datos, mediante la utilización tanto de variables microeconómicas como macroeconómicas así como otras variables culturales y geográficas. Como resultado se puede resaltar que factores como el número de llegadas del periodo inmediatamente anterior y el índice de intercambio comercial influyen de manera positiva, mientras el índice de secuestros, reduce de forma significativa el número de llegadas de viajeros extranjeros a Colombia.

Increasing Rail's Mode Share Within The Constraints of The Existing Network

This file contains the results of application of the model (4.6) and (4.8)