中国西部大開発の評価と展望

中国の「西部大開発」戦略は、東部沿海地域（以下、東部）と西部内陸地域（以下、西部）の格差を是正し、内陸経済の自律的発展条件を整備することを目指した国家的プロジェクトである。同戦略に関しては、当初から肯定否定こもごもの評価がつきまとってきたが、曲がりなりにも第十次五カ年計画（2001～05年）に盛り込まれたこと、提起以来４年の間に様々な政策措置が実施され、大規模なインフラ建設が着手されたことなど、その客観的評価を試みる材料が揃ってきたと考えられる。 本稿では、まず同戦略が登場した背景と、現在までに打ち出された具体的施策を整理したうえで、西部大開発の直面する課題を検証し、今後の展望を試みる。結論部分では、日本の協力策についても考察してみたい。

開発戦略としてのPro-Poor Growth －貧困層への雇用創出－

本稿は、後発開発途上国においてpro-poor growthを達成する開発戦略を、産業政策との関連から研究したものである。アジアとアフリカの経済発展プロセスにおいて、貧困層にどの産業が雇用機会を提供するか、を研究した。その結果明らかになったのは、1970-90年代の典型的な東アジア高成長経済であるタイと台湾において、貧困層に最も大きな雇用機会を与えたのが農業部門であったのに対して、貧困層の雇用機会増に最も貢献したのが製造業部門であったということである。同様の傾向は、アフリカの輸出指向成長国であるモーリシャスについても観察された。一方、グローバリゼーションの活力が十分に生かされなかったマラウィ、南アフリカ、インドにおいては、製造業が同様の雇用機会を貧困層に提供できなかった。結論として導かれるのは、典型的な後発発展途上国においては、雇用に関して農業のシェアが製造業のシェアを上回るのが一般的であるものの、もし比較優位がグローバリゼーションの中で顕在化できるのであれば、貧困層の雇用機会増に関して、農業よりも製造業の貢献度が大きくなりうる、ということである。一国全体の経済発展という観点のみならず、貧困層に利益をもたらすpro-poor growthという文脈においても、製造業の果たす役割が無視し得ないことが明らかになった。

Evaluating the Effectiveness of GMS Economic Corridors: Why is There More Focus on the Bangkok-Hanoi Road than the East-West Corridor?

Since the inauguration of the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) Economic Cooperation Program in 1992, road infrastructure projects have played a very important role. Their economic significance, especially, has become a focal point after the introduction of the concept of the three economic corridors in 1998: the East-West Economic Corridor; the North-South Economic Corridor; and the Southern Economic Corridor (Figure 1). The completion of the Second International Mekong Bridge between Mukdahan, Thailand and Savannakhet, Laos was an epoch-making event in the development of the East-West Economic Corridor. The business community, however, has paid more attention to the Bangkok-Hanoi Road than the East-West Economic Corridor. This study examines the reasons why the former has received more focus than the latter, by using criteria such as population density and the economic scale at a provincial or state level. Thereafter, the effectiveness of other economic corridors is examined, by applying the same criteria.

中国の西部大開発－21世紀の内陸発展戦略

中国は建国（1949年）以来、様々な地域開発戦略を実施してきた。「西部大開発」戦略は、東部沿海地域（以下、東部）と西部内陸地域（以下、西部）の格差を是正し、内陸経済の自律的発展条件を整備することを目指した新たな内陸開発戦略である。本稿では、同戦略が提起されて３年を経過した段階で、その客観的評価を試みる。 まず、同戦略が登場した背景を政治、経済両面から分析し、従来の内陸開発政策の経緯を整理する。次に、執筆時点までに打ち出された具体的施策を整理した上で、西部大開発の直面する課題を検証し、今後の展望を試みる。結論部分では、日本の協力策についても考察を行う。

Yangtze River Delta's system integration: institutional barriers and countermeasures

This paper addresses the issue of institutional barriers to the Yangtze River Delta integration and the resulting slow development. It analyzes the problems including the coordination of local interests and regional interests, market segmentation during the regional integration, competition for the local government‘s investment on the public goods, labor movement within the delta. The paper argues that to reduce the negative impacts of these barriers and to promote the further integration of the Yangtze Delta region, the central government should strengthen the coordination between local governments, regulate their disorderly competition and reform the official evaluation system.

Growth and public finance in Bihar

This paper explores the causal links between the role of public finance and Bihar's growth and development in the last decade; and argues that these links are tenuous. Bihar's growth acceleration precedes the ‘policy reforms' in public finance based on the ‘good governance' agenda initiated since 2005-06. However, the constraints on sustaining efforts to close Bihar's development gap with the rest of India stems from the nature of the growth process in its regional, sectoral and social dimensions and the contradictory means and ends of the ‘policy reforms' in public finance. Together, this has not only prevented the economic growth to add to public coiffeurs of the state but also occluded the role of tax institutions.

Spatial spillovers from FDI agglomeration : evidence from the Yangtze River Delta in China

Foreign firms have clustered together in the Yangtze River Delta, and their impact on domestic firms is an important policy issue. This paper studies the spatial effect of FDI agglomeration on the regional productivity of domestic firms, using Chinese firm-level data. To identify local FDI spillovers, we estimate the causal impact of foreign firms on domestic firms in the same county and similar industries. We then estimate a spatial-autoregressive model to examine spatial spillovers from FDI clusters to other domestic firms in distant counties. Our results show that FDI agglomeration generates positive spillovers for domestic firms, which are stronger in nearby areas than in distant areas.

Agriculture Plus Plus : growth strategy for Myanmar agriculture

The development of agriculture is a main pillar of Myanmar’s growth strategies. It is natural for the Myanmar government to prioritize agriculture as a source of economic growth, since it accounted for 36% of GDP, employs a majority of labor force, and generates nearly 30% of exports as of 2010. Although the agricultural share in GDP and employment usually declines as an economy grows, it is not a sunset industry in Myanmar. Methods exist for increasing agriculture’s value added other than the growth of labor and land inputs. The key is to enhance three productivity measures: labor, land, and total productivity. We call this strategy "Agriculture Plus Plus."

Five growth strategies for Myanmar : re-engagement with the global economy

After decades of isolation, Myanmar is now actively re-engaging with the global economy. For successful re-engagement, Myanmar needs to implement comprehensive economic reforms based on a shared vision for long-term economic development that is characterized by human-centered, high, sustainable, pro-poor, inclusive, and balanced economic growth. In this paper, we propose five growth strategies: "Agriculture Plus Plus," an export-oriented strategy, a foreign direct investment-driven strategy, a two-polar growth strategy, and a strategy to develop domestic economic corridors. These strategies are used as guides to translate these development agendas into a set of implementable policies, programs, and projects.

開発政策としての優遇アクセスの成果と課題 -- マダガスカルに対する経済制裁を例に

世界貿易機関（WTO）のドーハ開発ラウンドでは、後発開発途上国が無税無枠で他国に輸出できる措置を実施することが協議されているが、ラウンド自体が合意に至っていないため、各国はWTOの枠組みとは別に、二国間で優遇的なアクセスを提供している。本稿では、アメリカおよびEU 市場への優遇アクセスの下で衣料品の輸出を成長させてきたマダガスカルの縫製産業を例に、二国間の優遇アクセスの成果と課題を検討した。マダガスカルでは2009年に政変が発生し、アメリカ政府は同国に対して輸入関税を免除するアフリカ成長機会法（AGOA）の適用を停止した。AGOAの中止は、同国からアメリカ市場向けの輸出を64～78%減少させ、その影響は政変そのものよりも大きいと推定された。また、企業レベルでは、アメリカ向けに輸出していた工場の閉鎖と、それに伴って非熟練労働者を中心に雇用が減少したことが企業データから明らかになった。低所得国に対する優遇アクセスの中止は、輸出額の減少を通じて、教育水準が低い女性の雇用に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。貧困削減の点からは、制度の運用変更が容易な2国間よりも、多国間の枠組みの下で安定的な優遇アクセスが提供されることが望ましい。

Spatial structures of manufacturing clusters in Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Thailand

Examining the spatial structure of clusters is essential for deriving regional development policy implications. In this study, we identify the manufacturing clusters in Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Thailand, using two indices—global extent (GE) and local density (LD)—as proposed by Mori and Smith (2013). We also analyze four different combinations of these indices to highlight the spatial structures of industrial agglomerations. Since industrial clusters often spread over administrative boundaries, the GE and LD indices—along with cluster mapping—display how the detected clusters fit into specific spatial structures.

Cuba's social policy after the disintegration of the Soviet Union -- social development as legitimacy of regime and its economy effectiveness

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Cuba has experienced a severe economic crisis, and the country's social policy has played an important role in showing the people a raison-d'etre for the revolution. This role has become even stronger in recent years, as internal and external actors demand political reforms and economic liberalization. This article first examines the Cuban government's use of social development to counter the demands for changes. It then looks at the extent that government social policy contributes economically to improving the Cuban living standard. The article demonstrates empirically how the leadership emphasizes their social accomplishments whenever demands for change come, and then shows that after the suspension of Soviet aid, Cuban social policy has been able to provide services mainly by relying on human capital and reducing quality materially because of the shortage of foreign reserves. This has limited the economic effectiveness of the services.