Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Taxonomia e biogeografia da espécie politípica Herpsilochmus rufimarginatus (TEMMINCK, 1822) (Aves: THAMNOPHILIDAE)

The genus Herpsilochmus is composed mainly of cryptic species, among them is Herpsilochmus rufimarginatus, which is currently represented by four subspecies: H. r. rufimarginatus, H. r. frater, H. r. scapularis and H. r. exiguus. Differences in plumage and vocalization suggest that there are more than one species involved in this complex. Thus this and other subspecific taxa need urgent revision, the disjunct distribution of this species also allows us to infer the relationship between birds that occur in this biome and / or different centers of endemism. This study aims to make a taxonomic revision of the taxa included in the complex time Herpsilochmus rufimarginatus based on morphological, morphometric, vocals and geographical distribution of this bird. Besides creating distribution models current potential and make the reconstruction of the distribution bygone using ecological niche modeling, and testing the niche conservatism and divergence between different subspecies. Consultations for examination of the skins of specimens of the museums: Museum of Zoology, University of São Paulo (MZUSP), National Museum of Rio de Janeiro (MN) and Emilio Goeldi Museum of Pará (MPEG), and the skins deposited at the collection of Ornithological Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (COUFRN). We studied the following measures length of specimens: exposed culmen, culmen and total culmen nostril, tarsus, wing and tail flattened. The voice analysis was performed with vocalizations banks and / or digital banks people where 17 voice parameters were measured. This information and more available in the literature were used to assemble a bunch of data under the limit distribution of taxa and generate ecological niche models. This analyzes carried out in the program Maxent, having as model selection criterion the AUC, and the models were greater than 0.80 are considered good models. Environmental data for the realization of the modeling were downloaded on the website of Worldclim. The morphometric information, vocals and geographic distribution point for the separation of these taxa to be considering various uni and multivariate analyzes. The potential distribution models performed well (AUC> 0.80), and its distribution associated with environmental characteristics of the Amazon forest and Atlantic forest (forests of south and southeast, northeast and forest). The reconstruction of the distribution indicates a possible contact between the southern part of the Atlantic forest in the northern part of the Amazon. The analysis of niche overlap showed a low overlap between taxa and comparisons between the null model and the generated overlay link probably occurring niche conservatism. The data suggest that the taxa that occur in the Amazon and Atlantic forest represent three distinct species

Gráfico de controle modificado para processos com estruturas complexas de autocorrelação

This work proposes a modified control chart incorporating concepts of time series analysis. Specifically, we considerer Gaussian mixed transition distribution (GMTD) models. The GMTD models are a more general class than the autorregressive (AR) family, in the sense that the autocorrelated processes may present flat stretches, bursts or outliers. In this scenario traditional Shewhart charts are no longer appropriate tools to monitoring such processes. Therefore, Vasilopoulos and Stamboulis (1978) proposed a modified version of those charts, considering proper control limits based on autocorrelated processes. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed technique a comparison with a traditional Shewhart chart (which ignores the autocorrelation structure of the process), a AR(1) Shewhart control chart and a GMTD Shewhart control chart was made. An analytical expression for the process variance, as well as control limits were developed for a particular GMTD model. The ARL was used as a criteria to measure the efficiency of control charts. The comparison was made based on a series generated according to a GMTD model. The results point to the direction that the modified Shewhart GMTD charts have a better performance than the AR(1) Shewhart and the traditional Shewhart.

A distribuição F generalizada para selecionar modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Modelos para análise e dimensionamento de painéis de alvenaria estrutural

The main objective of this thesis was the study of bracing panels of structural masonry, by applying the Finite Element Method and Strut and Tie Method. It was analyzed the following aspects: the effect of orthotropy on the behavior of the panels; distribution of horizontal forces between panels for buildings; comparison between Equivalent Frame and Finite Elements models; panels design with the Strut and Tie Method. The results showed that one should not disregard the orthotropy, otherwise this can lead to models stiffer than the real. Regarding the distribution of horizontal forces, showed that the disregard of lintels and shear deformation leads to significant differences in the simplified model. The results showed also that the models in Finite Element and Equivalent Frame exhibit similar behavior in respect to stiffness of panels and stress distribution over the sessions requested. It was discussing criteria for designing Strut and Tie Method models in one floor panels. Then, the theoretical strength these panels was compared with the rupture strength of panels tested in the literature. The theoretical maximum strength were always less than the rupture strength of the panels obtained in tests, due to the fact that the proposed model cannot represent the behavior of the masonry after the start of the panel cracking due to plasticization of the reinforcement

Influência dos modelos digitais de terreno na modelagem de circulação hidrodinâmica 2DH: um estudo de caso

Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are numerical representations of a portion of the earth surface. Among several factors which affect the quality of a DEM, it should be emphasized the attention on the input data and the choice of the interpolating algorithm. On the other hand, several numerical models are used nowadays to characterize nearshore hydrodynamics and morphological changes in coastal areas, whose validation is based on field data collection. Independent on the complexity of the physical processes which are modeled, little attention has been given to the intrinsic bathymetric interpolation built within the numerical models of the specific application. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and to quantify the influence of the bathymetry, as obtained by a DEM, on the hydrodynamic circulation model at a coastal stretch, off the coast of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil. This coastal region is characterized by strong hydrodynamic and littoral processes, resulting in a very dynamic morphology with shallow coastal bathymetry. Important economic activities, such as oil exploitation and production, fisheries, salt ponds, shrimp farms and tourism, also bring impacts upon the local ecosystems and influence themselves the local hydrodynamics. This fact makes the region one of the most important for the development of the State, but also enhances the possibility of serious environmental accidents. As a hydrodynamic model, SisBaHiA® - Environmental Hydrodynamics System ( Sistema Básico de Hidrodinâmica Ambiental ) was chosen, for it has been successfully employed at several locations along the Brazilian coast. This model was developed at the Coastal and Oceanographical Engineering Group of the Ocean Engineering Program at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Several interpolating methods were tested for the construction of the DEM, namely Natural Neighbor, Kriging, Triangulation with Linear Interpolation, Inverse Distance to a Power, Nearest Neighbor, and Minimum Curvature, all implemented within the software Surfer®. The bathymetry which was used as reference for the DEM was obtained from nautical charts provided by the Brazilian Hydrographic Service of the Brazilian Navy and from a field survey conducted in 2005. Changes in flow velocity and free surface elevation were evaluated under three aspects: a spatial vision along three profiles perpendicular to the coast and one profile longitudinal to the coast as shown; a temporal vision from three central nodes of the grid during 30 days; a hodograph analysis of components of speed in U and V, by different tidal cycles. Small, but negligible, variations in sea surface elevation were identified. However, the differences in flow and direction of velocities were significant, depending on the DEM

Estudos de modelos Estocásticos: processo de contato, séries aleatórias e processos difusivos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura e erro de medida nas covariáveis

In this work, we study the survival cure rate model proposed by Yakovlev et al. (1993), based on a competing risks structure concurring to cause the event of interest, and the approach proposed by Chen et al. (1999), where covariates are introduced to model the risk amount. We focus the measurement error covariates topics, considering the use of corrected score method in order to obtain consistent estimators. A simulation study is done to evaluate the behavior of the estimators obtained by this method for finite samples. The simulation aims to identify not only the impact on the regression coefficients of the covariates measured with error (Mizoi et al. 2007) but also on the coefficients of covariates measured without error. We also verify the adequacy of the piecewise exponential distribution to the cure rate model with measurement error. At the end, model applications involving real data are made

Caracterização comportamental e distribuição de neurônios inibitórios em um modelo animal de autismo induzido por ácido valpróico

Autism comprises a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental disorders that affects the brain maturation and produces sensorial, motor, language and social interaction deficits in early childhood. Several studies have shown a major involvement of genetic factors leading to a predisposition to autism, which are possibly affected by environmental modulators during embryonic and post-natal life. Recent studies in animal models indicate that alterations in epigenetic control during development can generate neuronal maturation disturbances and produce a hyper-excitable circuit, resulting in typical symptoms of autism. In the animal model of autism induced by valproic acid (VPA) during rat pregnancy, behavioral, electrophysiological and cellular alterations have been reported which can also be observed in patients with autism. However, only a few studies have correlated behavioral alterations with the supposed neuronal hyper-excitability in this model. The aim of this project was to generate an animal model of autism by pre-natal exposure to VPA and evaluate the early post-natal development and pre-puberal (PND30) behavior in the offspring. Furthermore, we quantified the parvalbumin-positive neuronal distribution in the medial prefrontal cortex and Purkinje cells in the cerebellum of VPA animals. Our results show that VPA treatment induced developmental alterations, which were observed in behavioral changes as compared to vehicle-treated controls. VPA animals showed clear behavioral abnormalities such as hyperlocomotion, prolonged stereotipies and reduced social interaction with an unfamiliar mate. Cellular quantification revealed a decrease in the number of parvalbumin-positive interneurons in the anterior cingulate cortex and in the prelimbic cortex of the mPFC, suggesting an excitatory/inhibitory unbalance in this animal model of autism. Moreover, we also observed that the neuronal reduction occurred mainly in the cortical layers II/III and V/VI. We did not detect any change in the density of Purkinje neurons in the Crus I region of the cerebellar cortex. Together, our results strengthens the face validity of the VPA model in rats and shed light on specific changes in the inhibitory circuitry of the prefrontal cortex in this autism model. Further studies should address the challenges to clarify particular electrophysiological correlates of the cellular alterations in order to better understand the behavioral dysfunctions

Uma abordagem dirigida por modelos para desenvolvimento de middlewares auto-adaptativos para transmissão de fluxo de dados baseado em restrições de QoS

The use of middleware technology in various types of systems, in order to abstract low-level details related to the distribution of application logic, is increasingly common. Among several systems that can be benefited from using these components, we highlight the distributed systems, where it is necessary to allow communications between software components located on different physical machines. An important issue related to the communication between distributed components is the provision of mechanisms for managing the quality of service. This work presents a metamodel for modeling middlewares based on components in order to provide to an application the abstraction of a communication between components involved in a data stream, regardless their location. Another feature of the metamodel is the possibility of self-adaptation related to the communication mechanism, either by updating the values of its configuration parameters, or by its replacement by another mechanism, in case of the restrictions of quality of service specified are not being guaranteed. In this respect, it is planned the monitoring of the communication state (application of techniques like feedback control loop), analyzing performance metrics related. The paradigm of Model Driven Development was used to generate the implementation of a middleware that will serve as proof of concept of the metamodel, and the configuration and reconfiguration policies related to the dynamic adaptation processes. In this sense was defined the metamodel associated to the process of a communication configuration. The MDD application also corresponds to the definition of the following transformations: the architectural model of the middleware in Java code, and the configuration model to XML

Impacto do racionamento nos resultados das empresas concessionárias do serviço público de distribuição de energia elétrica: um estudo nas empresas privadas da Região Nordeste

This work verifies the impact caused by the Emergencial Program of Reduction of Consumption of Electric Energy (energy-rationing program) in the results of the concessionary private companies of the public service of electric energy distribution localized in the Northeast Area. As the rationing invigorated from June 2001 to February 2002, its effects are diluted in the results presented by these companies in the second semester of 2001 and first quarter of 2002, with prominence for the last quarter of 2001, when the revenue of extraordinary tariff restore was instituted by the National Agency of Electric Energy (ANEEL), consequence of the so-called General Agreement of the Electric Sector made between the federal government and the companies of the electric sector. The structure of a generic electric sector and a historical review of the Brazilian electric sector from the time it was controlled by the private enterprises, including the State control period, about 1960, and returning to the control of the private enterprises in 1990, under a new regulation structure are presented. An explanation of the models of economic regulation that Brazil used for the electric sector is made, with prominence for the price cap that is the actual effective model. The process of tariff revision foreseen in the concession contracts signed by the federal government and the concessionary companies is presented, highlighting its two stages: the tariff rebalancing that defines the new price cap and the calculation of the factor X that establishes the efficiency goals for the companies. There is made a presentation of the Emergencial Program of Reduction of Consumption of Electric Energy and of the consequent General Agreement of the Electric Sector, which created the revenue of extraordinary tariff restore. A conceptual revision on reviews is presented, regarding to concepts, accomplishment and recognition. A brief review of the six companies that made part of the worked sample is also presented. Analyzing the quarters historical review and of amount of sold energy, it was possible to conclude that the energy-rationing altered the results of the studied companies significantly and that alteration was masked by the accounting process of the revenue of extraordinary tariff restore

Testes em modelos weibull na forma estendida de Marshall-Olkin

In survival analysis, the response is usually the time until the occurrence of an event of interest, called failure time. The main characteristic of survival data is the presence of censoring which is a partial observation of response. Associated with this information, some models occupy an important position by properly fit several practical situations, among which we can mention the Weibull model. Marshall-Olkin extended form distributions other a basic generalization that enables greater exibility in adjusting lifetime data. This paper presents a simulation study that compares the gradient test and the likelihood ratio test using the Marshall-Olkin extended form Weibull distribution. As a result, there is only a small advantage for the likelihood ratio test

Testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com Fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modeling of time to event data. However in some situations part of the population may be no longer subject to the event. Models that take this fact into account are called cure rate models. There are few studies about hypothesis tests in cure rate models. Recently a new test statistic, the gradient statistic, has been proposed. It shares the same asymptotic properties with the classic large sample tests, the likelihood ratio, score and Wald tests. Some simulation studies have been carried out to explore the behavior of the gradient statistic in fi nite samples and compare it with the classic statistics in diff erent models. The main objective of this work is to study and compare the performance of gradient test and likelihood ratio test in cure rate models. We first describe the models and present the main asymptotic properties of the tests. We perform a simulation study based on the promotion time model with Weibull distribution to assess the performance of the tests in finite samples. An application is presented to illustrate the studied concepts

Ecologia e história natural de população Hemidactylus agrius (Squamata: Gekkonidae) em área de Caatinga, com avaliação da distribuição das espécies nativas do gênero no nordeste do Brasil

The genus Hemidactylus Oken, 1817 has cosmopolite distribution, with three species occurring in Brazil, two of them native, H. brasilianus and H. agrius, and one exotic, H. mabouia. Considering the studies about ecology of lizards conducted in the Ecological Station of the Seridó, from 2001 to 2011, this study aimed (1) to re-evaluate the occurrence of the species of Hemidactylus in this ESEC; (2) to analyze ecological and biological aspects of the H. agrius population; and (3) to investigate the current and potential distribution of the native species of the genus in northeastern Brazil, analyzing the suitability of ESEC to this taxon. For the first two objectives, a sampling area consisting of five transects of 200 x 20 m, was inspected in alternating daily shifts for three consecutive days, from August 2012 to August 2013. For the latter objective, occurrence points of H. agrius and H. brasilianus from literature and from the database of Herpetological Collections of the UFRN and the UNICAMP were consulted to build predictive maps via the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). In ESEC Seridó, 62 H. agrius individuals were collected (25 females, 18 males and 19 juveniles), and two neonates were obtained from a communal nest incubated in the laboratory. No record was made for the other two species of the genus. Hemidactylus agrius demonstrated to be a nocturnal species specialized in habitats with rocky outcrops; but this species is generalist regarding microhabitat use. In the population studied, females had an average body length greater than males, and showed higher frequencies of caudal autotomy. Regarding diet, H. agrius is a moderately generalist species that consumes arthropods, especially insect larvae, Isoptera and Araneae; and vertebrates, with a case of cannibalism registered in the population. With respect to seasonal differences, only the number of food items ingested differed between seasons. The diet was similar between sexes, but ontogenetic differences were recorded for the total volume and maximum length of the food items. Significant relationships were found between lizard body/head size measurements and the maximum length of prey consumed. Cases of polydactyly and tail bifurcation were recorded in the population, with frequencies of 1.6% and 3.1%, respectively. In relation xv to the occurrence points of the native species, 27 were identified, 14 for H. agrius and 13 for H. brasilianus. The first species presented restricted distribution, while the second showed a wide distribution. In both models generated, the ESEC Seridó area showed medium to high suitability. The results of this study confirm the absence of H. brasilianus and H. mabouia this ESEC, and reveal H. agrius as a dietary opportunist and cannibal species. Further, the results confirm the distribution patterns shown by native species of Hemidactylus, and point ESEC Seridó as an area of probable occurrence for the species of the genus, the establishing of H. brasilianus and H. mabouia are probably limited by biotic factors, a fact yet little understood

O uso de modelos ocultos de Markov no estudo do fluxo de rios intermitentes

In this work, we present our understanding about the article of Aksoy [1], which uses Markov chains to model the flow of intermittent rivers. Then, we executed an application of his model in order to generate data for intermittent streamflows, based on a data set of Brazilian streams. After that, we build a hidden Markov model as a proposed new approach to the problem of simulation of such flows. We used the Gamma distribution to simulate the increases and decreases in river flows, along with a two-state Markov chain. The motivation for us to use a hidden Markov model comes from the possibility of obtaining the same information that the Aksoy’s model provides, but using a single tool capable of treating the problem as a whole, and not through multiple independent processes