Fusões e aquisições no Brasil: análise dos efeitos em mercado de capitais

This study investigated the impact caused by events horizontal mergers and acquisitions (M&As) horizontal, in the stock returns of the participating companies and competitors regarding the creation or destruction of value for those firms in Brazil, from 2001 to 2012. For this, first was used the event study methodology to estimate abnormal returns in stock prices; after was conducted an analysis multiple regression. The results of the event study showed that using sub-periods for the data, before and after the crisis period, the effects were different for the target-before negative, after positive. Regarding the acquirer and competitors, the results were constant. For acquirer firms, the returns were close to zero, while for the competitors were negative. Furthermore, the regression results regarding the bidder showed that firms invested in processes of M&As to obtain a further increase its efficiency. Furthermore, this study indicated that the leverage of the bidder plays is important for creating value in acquisitions, when they has a higher Tobin’s Q. The results of target firms showed that a small firm had a better return than large firm did.

Determinação do teor de diclofenaco sódico em comprimidos por espectroscopia no infravermelho próximo NIR com calibração multivariada PLS

This work is combined with the potential of the technique of near infrared spectroscopy - NIR and chemometrics order to determine the content of diclofenac tablets, without destruction of the sample, to which was used as the reference method, ultraviolet spectroscopy, which is one of the official methods. In the construction of multivariate calibration models has been studied several types of pre-processing of NIR spectral data, such as scatter correction, first derivative. The regression method used in the construction of calibration models is the PLS (partial least squares) using NIR spectroscopic data of a set of 90 tablets were divided into two sets (calibration and prediction). 54 were used in the calibration samples and the prediction was used 36, since the calibration method used was crossvalidation method (full cross-validation) that eliminates the need for a validation set. The evaluation of the models was done by observing the values of correlation coefficient R 2 and RMSEC mean square error (calibration error) and RMSEP (forecast error). As the forecast values estimated for the remaining 36 samples, which the results were consistent with the values obtained by UV spectroscopy

Desempenho de analistas sell-side no mercado de ações brasileiro

The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

Caminhos de sobrevivência institucional: a gestão do núcleo de oficinas e artes profissionalizantes laís aderne

The object of this study is the organizational management, particularly the relational processenvironment organization focused on the survival of the space Department of the Arts and Crafts Mestre Raimundo Cardoso linked to the structural arrangement of the Liceu do Paracuri.. Aimed to understand the ways of organizational survival, from the actors' perception of the Center for Arts Career Workshops and Lais Aderne, with investments that discuss the theoretical models of management, institutional theory, cultural organization and institutionalization of public education requirement of the municipal light LDB. (1996) used a qualitative approach with a view to RICHARDSON (1985). The data generated were analyzed based on the technique of content analysis, the thematic type [categorical] Bardin (1977). The results indicate that the institutionalization of the arrangement of the Liceu do Paracuri emerges meet the legal requirement of the autonomy of municipal educational administration under the aegis of sustainable development, quality of life and basic education from the municipal Hélio Gueiros (1993-1996 ). More specifically the Center for Arts and Crafts Laís Aderne, the unit of analysis, the subjects said that this space is designed as a link between the demands of school and community searching through interdisciplinary activities educate and train manpower mainly potter. They did mention the existence of institutional factors (history, culture, habits, values) represent a strong socio-cultural element to the actors belonging to the core that guides behavior and actions of these individuals, fueled by a sense of hope, inclusion of future artisans in culture ceramist. It made a shared management, the existence of a unique work through cultural revival. However, over the course of time, the core is faced with dilemmas of managing transitions mainly regarding governmental, technological beyond endurance by the craftsmen for the optimization of their work. The conclusion - that the paths chosen for the organizational survival of the core meaning and guiding their actions in the systematization of conduct, representations, memories and traditions through habits and choices of consensus, the viewpoint of the actors

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Educação escolar para crianças: o que dizem sujeitos deste direito?

The text aims to discuss the problems that this would be set: - What are the concepts of public school children about their right to primary education, as required step in the Basic Education? - What are conducted by children on the elementary school, in terms of its structure, teaching, and acquisitions provide for their users, especially when it comes to literacy? In order to answer these questions, we conducted within the qualitative a case study within twenty children of the early years of elementary public school, ten of the School Mauricio de Sousa and ten children of the School Monteiro Lobato. with construction procedures of data, we worked with observation, semi-directive interview, questionnaire and document analysis. In analyzing the data, two categories emerged: right to education and school for children. The first focuses on what children think about the legal guarantee to school, seeking to understand if they understand the educational area as a right and relate what the law says and the reality in which they participate. The category for school children, including their purposes, characteristics, space literacy and its relationship with the teacher. In this sense, we comment, taking as its founding, the speech of children in their schools, focusing on how they perceive the school in terms of its structure and functioning, relations with the knowledge and the other children. With regard to child rights, the appreciation of Brazilian children should be the basis of the struggle for a more just, democratic, nondiscriminatory. However, children show not recognize education as a right, but as one who deserves the credit, that is, those children who are always attentive, do not fight and do not complain. In interviews, children express a simple wish child that the school had toys. A school for children should be a place with its own characteristics: cheerful, lively, colorful, which included the same time, security and challenges. Children point to the hope that the course of action the teacher was guided by respect their differences in a more emotional, especially with regard to issues of authority and discipline of the group. The most important learning is for all subjects learning to read / write, differing in the idea of how to learn. Unfortunately, for some students, learning reading and writing appears as a difficult and enjoyable process is not perceived by some subjects up to recognize the instrumental writing. Finally, we point to the actors of the school to launch a more accurate to say that the children and how to outline your main locus of learning

A manifestação da vontade da criança na disputa judicial da guarda: escuta psicanalítica/

Currently, in custody disputes, the child has the right to be heard and to have its opinion considered, according to its age and maturity. The psychologist/psychoanalyst who works in the Family Court is required to produce a Report with the purpose of helping the Court´s decision. The present research aims to discuss and to find guiding principles for the hearing of the declaration of the child´s will in a custody dispute by its parents, from a psychoanalytical perspective. The case of a nine year old girl that affirmed in Court the desire of living with the mother and seeing the father only once a year is the starting point of this theoretical research over the psychoanalytic fundaments of the hearing of the case, how it appeared in that experience and how it was reflected in the report. Throughout this work, the peculiarities of psychoanalysis as a way of understanding the subject and the conditions that must be observed so that a sctrictu sensu analytic hearing is possible are studied. Then we present a reflection of the case, in the light of the theories studied, verifying that we could observe in the experience: i) the assumption of a subject of the unconscious, divided and desire full that constitutes itself from the oedipic structuration, that leads to the difference between speech and speak; ii) the concept of the child as having a sexuality of its own; iii) a hearing based on the ethic principles of psychoanalysis and the analysts'' formation. In the final considerations, we state that the institutional demand of a meaning for the case is a great difficulty for the analyst since he works from a place of 'not-knowing"

Experiências de inverno no seridó potiguar

The knowledge known as "winter experiences" has been developed for centuries among country people in the Brazilian Northeast hinterlands. It consists in the systematic observation of the nature to forecast and protect people against the effects of droughts. This knowledge is transmitted orally through generations. These experiences are guided by the observation of the behavior of fauna, flora, stars, the weather in the holy days and other very specific aspects of the lives of country people. Almost all country people living in the rural area know at least one experience, but the Prophets of Rain are known as the communicators of winter prophecies formulated from the observation of the experiences. The country person is identified as a Prophet of Rain because of his close relationship with nature and his ability to forecast. No matter if the prophecies are always right, he possesses a vital social role, as his practices contribute to prevent, ease and encourage other people. The main aim of this work is to analyze the role of the winter experiences for the country people in the Seridó Potiguar. In this sense, we sought to understand to what extent this knowledge still orients the productive practices of farmers living in this region and identify which factors instigate the observation of winter experiences nowadays. 241 questionnaires were applied to farmers in the rural cities of Acari, Caicó, Parelhas and Lagoa Nova and interviews were conducted with 15 Prophets in the Seridó. The methodological framework of this work is the analysis of content proposed by Bardin (2010). In this study area, the experiences exert influence and relevance to the country people in the Seridó, because they consider them as a way to ease their anguishes face the possible drought in the region. The major role of the Prophet is to feed the hope of country people for better days, rather than contribute for the organization of the productive activities. Among the interviewed people, the forecast from the observation of winter experiences have greater credibility than the meteorological and disseminated by media. The Prophets of Rain base their prophecies on the set of natural elements present in the environment. Many factors stimulate the winter experiences by the Prophets nowadays, as cultural transmission, age, relationship with nature, level of education, faith, among others, but specially the productive activities (agriculture and cattle raising) and the droughts. The winter means abundance and happiness in this region and the experience is one of the ways that people find to minimize the anxiety and, according to their possibilities, to prepare for a year of droughts or for winter

Modelo para reconstrução 3D de cenas baseado em imagens

3D Reconstruction is the process used to obtain a detailed graphical model in three dimensions that represents some real objectified scene. This process uses sequences of images taken from the scene, so it can automatically extract the information about the depth of feature points. These points are then highlighted using some computational technique on the images that compose the used dataset. Using SURF feature points this work propose a model for obtaining depth information of feature points detected by the system. At the ending, the proposed system extract three important information from the images dataset: the 3D position for feature points; relative rotation and translation matrices between images; the realtion between the baseline for adjacent images and the 3D point accuracy error found.

Contribuições em escalonamento e análise de desempenho de redes WirelessHART

Wireless Communication is a trend in the industrial environment nowadays and on this trend, we can highlight the WirelessHART technology. In this situation, it is natural the search for new improvements in the technology and such improvements can be related directly to the routing and scheduling algorithms. In the present thesis, we present a literature review about the main specific solutions for Routing and scheduling for WirelessHART. The thesis also proposes a new scheduling algorithm called Flow Scheduling that intends to improve superframe utilization and flexibility aspects. For validation purposes, we develop a simulation module for the Network Simulator 3 (NS-3) that models aspects like positioning, signal attenuation and energy consumption and provides an link individual error configuration. The module also allows the creation of the scheduling superframe using the Flow and Han Algorithms. In order to validate the new algorithms, we execute a series of comparative tests and evaluate the algorithms performance for link allocation, delay and superframe occupation. In order to validate the physical layer of the simulation module, we statically configure the routing and scheduling aspects and perform reliability and energy consumption tests using various literature topologies and error probabilities.

Contribuições em escalonamento e análise de desempenho de redes WirelessHART

Wireless Communication is a trend in the industrial environment nowadays and on this trend, we can highlight the WirelessHART technology. In this situation, it is natural the search for new improvements in the technology and such improvements can be related directly to the routing and scheduling algorithms. In the present thesis, we present a literature review about the main specific solutions for Routing and scheduling for WirelessHART. The thesis also proposes a new scheduling algorithm called Flow Scheduling that intends to improve superframe utilization and flexibility aspects. For validation purposes, we develop a simulation module for the Network Simulator 3 (NS-3) that models aspects like positioning, signal attenuation and energy consumption and provides an link individual error configuration. The module also allows the creation of the scheduling superframe using the Flow and Han Algorithms. In order to validate the new algorithms, we execute a series of comparative tests and evaluate the algorithms performance for link allocation, delay and superframe occupation. In order to validate the physical layer of the simulation module, we statically configure the routing and scheduling aspects and perform reliability and energy consumption tests using various literature topologies and error probabilities.

Caminhos de sobrevivência institucional: a gestão do Núcleo de Oficinas e Artes Profissionalizantes Laís Aderne

The object of this study is the organizational management, particularly the relational processenvironment organization focused on the survival of the space Department of the Arts and Crafts Mestre Raimundo Cardoso linked to the structural arrangement of the Liceu do Paracuri.. Aimed to understand the ways of organizational survival, from the actors' perception of the Center for Arts Career Workshops and Lais Aderne, with investments that discuss the theoretical models of management, institutional theory, cultural organization and institutionalization of public education requirement of the municipal light LDB. (1996) used a qualitative approach with a view to RICHARDSON (1985). The data generated were analyzed based on the technique of content analysis, the thematic type [categorical] Bardin (1977). The results indicate that the institutionalization of the arrangement of the Liceu do Paracuri emerges meet the legal requirement of the autonomy of municipal educational administration under the aegis of sustainable development, quality of life and basic education from the municipal Hélio Gueiros (1993-1996 ). More specifically the Center for Arts and Crafts Laís Aderne, the unit of analysis, the subjects said that this space is designed as a link between the demands of school and community searching through interdisciplinary activities educate and train manpower mainly potter. They did mention the existence of institutional factors (history, culture, habits, values) represent a strong socio-cultural element to the actors belonging to the core that guides behavior and actions of these individuals, fueled by a sense of hope, inclusion of future artisans in culture ceramist. It made a shared management, the existence of a unique work through cultural revival. However, over the course of time, the core is faced with dilemmas of managing transitions mainly regarding governmental, technological beyond endurance by the craftsmen for the optimization of their work. The conclusion - that the paths chosen for the organizational survival of the core meaning and guiding their actions in the systematization of conduct, representations, memories and traditions through habits and choices of consensus, the viewpoint of the actors

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model